Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Golf757075]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. 

If the gefs still looks good, then gfs has some merit, albeit not as strong as depicted. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

By the stats it’s better than the icon, but worse than the GGEM and its AI version.

[IronTy]

52 minutes ago, anotherman said:

People are stupid.

On the way to work this morning I noticed a guy in the lane next to me looking over and taking pictures of my car.  But then I looked closer and he had one of those old wooden paper chip bag clips from the 1980s that we used to use and it was hanging from one of his nostrils.  People are really stupid.  

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

Have you seen how it performed this winter? Has had no systems correctly model outside 48hrs 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

At least it's been the most consistent last couple days

The only thing it’s been consistent about all winter is being wrong.

[winter_warlock]

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. 

One last shot?  Did the GFS also show that? 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, rjvanals said:

The only thing it’s been consistent about all winter is being wrong.

Right or wrong.. it's been consistent  

[baltosquid]

On the EPS. Pretty big jump to this dual wave look. There was a hint of it earlier if you look at the height lines closely but as you can see, it really took off at 06z. If there’s still more to go on focusing things to the west then we could definitely score. But remain in a look like this and most likely the two waves just get in each other’s way as the op demonstrated.

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Right or wrong.. it's been consistently wrong  

fixed

[winter_warlock]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

fixed

[TSSN+]

Garbage 

Forecast 

System 

[GaWx]

 In case it wasn’t posted, here’s the SV 6Z AI-Weathernext ens: averaging 3” for this area based on 10:1

[TSSN+]

Just now, GaWx said:

 In case it wasn’t posted, here’s the 6Z AI-Weathernext: averaging 3” for this area

Remember when it showed 15”? Another clunker model 

[Scraff]

Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know?

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know?

Only by the GFS apparently. 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Has this storm been fully sampled yet? Anyone know?

No but I do know that the NAM is running. At this point I trust it just as much as the GFS! Let's get hyped folks

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM looks different at HR 63 compared to 6Z. Not sure if it means anything good yet.

[winter_warlock]

If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ?

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Is @stormtracker ok?

Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up.   The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

If people think the GFS is so bad then why post the model and snow maps ?

Because we are data freaks.  Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Because we are data freaks.  Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow.

 Very true!! I'd love for the GFS to be right this time 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM is a complete whiff.  Weak low well off the coast.

[Scraff]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Because we are data freaks.  Goes hand in hand with loving weather/snow.

Plus. it’s a good teaching moment for what a terrible model looks like. Hope everyone has been taking notes. There will be test at the conclusion of winter. So study up for next Tuesday. 

[midatlanticweather]

BTW - Did the NWS Disucssion get posted? Was well done with all the caveats and summed up well what the mets here have been saying! 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter
storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder
than normal temperatures early next week.

A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this
weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as
a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a
downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern
amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with
low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North
Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge
over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two
cutoff lows interacting.

If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west
near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification
would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN
Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast
would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream
blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows
over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge
into northern New England.

There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset
of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction
between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant
offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation
amounts and placement.

The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now
have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night.
This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last
3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many
ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show
significantly higher amounts.

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will
determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves
passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of
snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event.

Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor
especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day.
Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in
question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which
offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, insomnia caught up with me finally and I was out at like 11 last night and just woke up.   The GFS is still a shit ass model and I'm in no way excited by it.

Been there haha!

[baltosquid]

NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

This is due to the change of cores, no?

          No.   Still FV3-based.

[Pityflakes]

7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Very true!! I'd love for the GFS to be right this time 

If the GFS magically scores a coup on this one I'll be ecstatic for my snow, but may just give up on this tracking hobby altogether because it's truly just model chaos!  

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

NAM also wants to make that trailing wave to the NW stronger but it’s too messy. Bad interactions.

FWIW (nothing), I think the NAM would have given us snow from the IVT after 84 hours. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Remember when it showed 15”? Another clunker model 

 Indeed, the SV AI-Weathernext has been terrible because it’s been all over the place, especially for an ensemble mean! The heaviest I’ve posted was this one, the 6Z 2/17 run giving DC ~10” and ~12” for its Mid-Atlantic max centered over C DE:

 Compare that to the latest (today’s 6Z): DC ~3” with none of the Mid-Atlantic >4”: