WxUSAF

Negative averaged over all of DJF?

Rain-to-snow behind a cold front in early November. Has there ever been anything so in-the-bag?

6z and 12z GFS imply the coldest trick or treating in years for most of us and probably would get most of the region outside of DCA a freeze.

Regrading Bobs post about AN heights and BN temps, I think you can see that with the strong ridging over the pole and the displacement of cold air south into Canada, that’s just showing that our source regions are very cold and some of it leaks into our area. And strong cold fronts following storms riding to our west where the cold behind the fronts are colder relative to average than the warm air ahead of the front.

Looks like next Thursday is probably the next outside shot at a freeze, particularly for IAD and BWI. Euro has 30s for most of the burbs that morning.

EPS not quite as strong with the high-latitude blocking in early Nov, but same general idea.

NOAA winter outlook is out. Ninatastic as one would expect. AN temps (although lowest color shading above equal chances) and EC on precip.

I don’t think BWI got there today, but looks like 2-3 more sub 40F days are possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday look fun next week. Strong FROPA with maybe a 20ish degree drop over 6-10 hours.

Sometimes the SW wind fetch bands go to that way, but yeah they usually are stay south of Amherst. I went to northern Niagara county many times as a kid, my grandmother lived there. Was literally a few miles from the lake shore and usually we got absolutely no LE snow. Insanely frustrating to a young snow weenie.

First sub 40 low for BWI. Forecasts attached. Several folks already have missed IAD. 2017 First Freeze Contest_forecasts.xlsx

Frost on car tops at home and patchy frost in the USDA fields north of greenbelt.

Cold Novembers are Nina climo though,right? Not that I’ll complain about it, but I’d just caution that a chilly November isn’t necessarily a sign that the pattern is behaving non-Nina.

Inshallah

Always take the over on when the wedge will break.