WxUSAF

85 yesterday and 86 today at BWI. Lol

Stink bugs always seem to come out on warm sunny fall days.

Yeah good question. I think the consensus is pretty strongly on blaming HT-HH. But I haven’t seen literature directly estimating that.

Somewhat. Takes much longer for the water to reach high northern latitudes, but it has. But there is much less still relative to the south.

South polar winter vortex was at or near record strength last year with very high water vapor levels.

Fall is here and it's time to open up this year's contest. You are forecasting the first day the temperature reaches 32F at BWI, IAD, DCA, and RIC. Tiebreaker is total monthly temperature departure from normal at BWI in October. This thread will lock at 12am October 8th so you have about a week! Happy freezing!

Can we get what NYCs getting in January with temps in the 20s? Thanks in advance!

Frost threat for outer burbs and rural areas next weekend per 12z GFS. 534 line over DC. Wooo fall!

Ok everyone enough with the woke debate

Low of 49. First 40s IMBY.

Oh yeah, kinda had forgotten. I’ll have a lot of free time starting Sunday so I’ll get on it.

Objectively, this winter is sort of fascinating with the mix of forcings that are happening. Nino, -QBO, high strat water vapor from HT-HH eruption, insanely warm oceans from the underwater volcanoes, etc. Will definitely be papers written about this year. I don’t have a strong feeling for how it all shakes out besides thinking we’ll average DJF above normal temps and probably wetter than normal.

There’s definitely a hint of suppression in the monthly precip anomalies for February although the H5 charts don’t really suggest it.