WxUSAF
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About WxUSAF
- Birthday 09/16/1981
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Gfs isn’t far off if you account for the NAM getting the thermals better. Not sure how close euro has been to this the last few runs.
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Forgive me for getting this info from tony Pann, but 12z NAM changes precip over to snow Sunday evening for folks near Baltimore. Both 3k and 12k. Euro showed this several days ago but haven’t seen it since.
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Been seeing people talk about how similar the sensible weather the last 30 days and looking forward to the next 15, has been similar to 2002. 2002 had a cold November and some snow I believe, then the early December snow, and then a light event on Xmas. We just missed the big storm obviously, but looks like we have a shot around Xmas again like 2002. Let’s hope Jan and feb go like their 2003 versions.
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@psuhoffman agree about the MJO apparently driving the bus. I think that models overdo it on MJO influences sometimes, but it’s been a pretty good pattern indicator the last 30-45 days. If we have to wait a few weeks for the wave to cycle back around, and time it with strat shenanigans, could get very interesting in January. Hopefully we can fluke our way into something around Xmas
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On short time scales it’s possible, but would be surprising for things to stay like that. And it’s more likely in December that later in the winter.
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Very Nina-ish. I'm somewhat skeptical, but we'll see. AO looks to go negative either way, so that helps.
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Damn...thought next winter was a strong Nina. Maybe be 22-23?
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Yeah, but we're thinking the 2020-21 winter could be epic.
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We'll put those in the "maybe" column.
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I'm trying to decide how to organize the threads for the upcoming period. What do you think of: White Christmasgasm 2018 Dec 29, 2018 Overrunning HECS New Years 2019 Coastal Bomb Thoughts?
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Get in a balloon and float around 850mb to make your shade posts. Can't have 850 torching while we're near freezing below.
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Hopefully if @Bob Chill keeps throwing enough shade, it can reduce our temps by a couple degrees leading into the Xmas storm. Could be the difference between rain and snow!
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Long way out, but I'll take it for now. What we want to see though is that weakness in the Lakes go away (which indicates some northern stream lows that would muck up our temps) and an increase in high pressure in that same area between the Lakes/Quebec/New England.
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Have you been reaped yet? What are you holding out for?
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Not sure NPZ counts as "peoples"
