WxUSAF

@Bob Chill and @psuhoffman agree strongly with both your last posts. Looks like we’ll have chances after next weekend if it doesn’t work out, but the fast flow doesn’t encourage long track storms.

No, gfs shows snow for us. Issues with the soundings and maps not jiving pending. How much accumulates is another question. For now let’s focus on getting that front through with enough energy hanging back to generate some more precip.

More and more looks like northern stream shenanigans want to mess up next weekend. Also means things are really complicated and we won’t have anything certain for awhile.

Gfs soundings on TT look really weird. Somethings not right when the maps say it’s snowing. 20C dewpoint depression at 750mb with precip??

I’d be happy to give you a black tag, but the boss has to do that

And for some reason, @mappy, @H2O, and @Bob Chill don’t have green tags still. @stormtracker I am willing to generously reduce my ample wages to help pay their salaries.

^excellent! At the moment I’m feeling reasonably confident of my low bar for December having a chance of clearance: 1. Less than 3F above normal 2. 1-2 accumulating snow events 3. No 60F within 3 days of Xmas on either side

Ggem has gives us snow from the Wednesday frontal wave. Gfs does for the N+W folks as well. Getting there. Issue I’m seeing right now for next weekend is that the models are picking up on a northern stream shortwave moving into the Midwest at the same time we want our storm. That both pushes the high pressure out faster and some, like the euro, try to phase it in which pulls the storm west. Still a very long way to go so things will change.

Very long range, one feature to maybe keep an eye on is the poleward oriented ridge over the Urals that Eps and GEFS show well established by D10. GEFS retrogrades it toward Scandinavia by the end of the run. This might be what HM is cryptically referring to as the next -NAO precursor.

When we actually get snow from these, it's not really anafrontal. The nomenclature gets a bit muddled. It's really a weak wave along the front. And from those, we get snow fairly often. A wave along the front is what we're really looking for.

18z GEFS again more bullish on the anafrontal snow chance it seems.

Another website with some good free Euro charts. A couple different ones than pivotal. https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf,ecmwf&region=usa&chart=gh500,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=120&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

CWG snowfall contest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/12/05/how-much-snow-will-fall-dc-this-winter-you-tell-us/

Yeah, I see that now. Fun to have a discrete window to track, even if the rug will probably get pulled on us by Sunday.

That’s a pretty nice look. If a piece of that Baffin Island vortex can reinforce some confluence and high pressure to our N and NW (it’s already there to our NE) were getting in a good spot.