George BM

If we don't get too much cloud cover/shower activity during the day tomorrow CAMs such as the RAP and HRRR get us a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ fast WNW flow aloft leading to decent deep-layer shear. Said clouds/showers may keep a stable-layer near the surface but there could still see a limited sub-severe hail threat... maybe an enhanced wind gust if there's more sunshine to steepen LLLRs. This a low threat overall.

Given the kinematics tomorrow would be potentially fun IF there was a little more CAPE. Early in the year for a WNW flow regime to work. Hopefully soon. We are due. ^Evergreen line above... ... Currently 50/23 at IAD.

IAD down to 23F for the low.

The annual tradition is complete!

When the tri-monthly ONI is at or above 2.0C for at least 3 consecutive months. (Ex: OND: 2.0, NDJ 2.1, DJF 2.0) +/- 1.5C strong +/- 1.0C moderate +/- 0.5C weak

32F at IAD at 11:13am.

Same. The last real areawide anomalous event... well IMO at least. Unrelated... did you notice the 61F temp/dewpt depression at 12:40pm at IAD? 60/-1 w/ relative humidity at 8%!

Looks like IAD just gusted up to 47kts(54mph).

Aye aye Captain!

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" (overnight -SN/SN) 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) 2/22/2023: T (little RA/IP mix) 2/25/2023: T (light wet snow) 3/10/2023: T (light rain/slush mix) 3/12/2023: T (Oscillating between light snow and a drizzle/snizzle mix through the afternoon.) Total as of March 12, 2023: 0.5"

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" (overnight -SN/SN) 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) 2/22/2023: T (little RA/IP mix) 2/25/2023: T (light wet snow) 3/10/2023: T (light rain/slush mix) Total as of March 10, 2023: 0.5"

Saw the lightning bolts going backwards on Radarscope. Slept through it, though at my location I would've just heard low-rumbling distant thunder. I'll go ahead and put down March 2nd as the first thunder occurrence at my house of 2023. Not quite as exciting as the weather five years ago today but it's... something.

Just noticed Jupiter and Venus in the night sky side-by-side (the conjunction). I thought it was an aircraft like a helicopter at first glance out of the corner of my eyes.

Baby Yoda: Hot off the press! NWSGeorgeBM Headquarters Forecast Discussion Sunday, June 25, 2023 4:44PM EDT Surface dewpts and surface temps have jumped into the mid 70s and mid/upper 80s respectively over the past few hours behind the warm front. The associated elevated showers/storms have lifted into the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay/SE PA/ Delaware area. Dewpts will rise a few more degrees into the upper 70s w/ upper 80s air temps on breezy SSE winds ahead of a potent shortwave. Steep MLLRs (7-7.5C/km) have overspread the region w/ LLLRs approaching 7C/km. Over the next one to two hours as the shortwave and associated MCS approaches and lift increases a weak cap around the 800-750mb layer will be eroded. With the very fast deep-layer(700-400mb) westerly flow (55-60+kts) and large hodographs, effective bulk-shear easily exceeds 60kts w/ 250-350+m2/s2 of effective SRH. That combined with 3000-3500+J/kg MLCAPE will allow supercells to develop and rapidly mature producing very large(2.5”+) hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes, perhaps significant. As the line of storms associated w/ the MCS/derecho moves east of the mountains by 22-23z they will further intensify in the high CAPE/ high shear environment w/ widespread damaging winds and significantly severe (hurricane-force) gusts looking likely. With large effective SRH, QLCS tornadoes will also be a decent threat. The supercells and MCS will affect the region between 21z and 1z. Afterwards a cold front will move through bringing gusty NW winds and cooler/drier air. Temps will fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s w/ dewpts into the 40s by dawn. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM Jerz2VA: D word. Zugzwang: Over/under on whether we see 1 million costumers lose power? Baby Yoda: 80/20 maybe even 1.5 mil at peak. Significant severe wind probs with the watch is at 90%. Higher than it was in 2012 which was 70%. Joe the Eskimo: