George BM

It's great to finally know how some of you look in person. I no longer need an imaginary image.

I certainly hope so. Same for you. Now all we need is for one of my crazy banter thread posts to come true.

I ran into some issues so I'm late I'll be there around 5:15pm.

How many are there?

When I get there who should I ask for? Who is this reserved by?

I'll probably be there by 4:15pm.

You're going to be there until 6 correct?

I may pop in at one point.

The general consensus that I'm getting is that: if you blinked you missed it, correct?

As of now I'm personally just hoping for at least a narrow line of intense rain that high-res models show for early tomorrow morning to bring a few stronger gusts(maybe 40+ mph).

Now if the timing was different by 12 hours......

I'm still watching what will happen with the remnants of Cindy and how it interacts with a cold front dropping in from the northwest. The best severe threat will come Friday afternoon but this depends on how much sunshine we can get Friday. 0-6km effective bulk shear actually looks fairly decent that day (Possibly 45-50+kt). The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is what will determine whether Friday could be a day with off and on showers and downpours or a day with some severe storms (perhaps a few supercells). The later, though, would require decent sunshine during the day. Right now the NAM model is most aggressive with this with 2,000+J/kg mean-layer CAPE. Other major models show more modest mean-layer CAPE. (Generally 500-1000+ J/kg). As for the heavy rain threat form Cindy, it depends on the exact track of the storm and how it interacts with the cold front and the mountains. As of now it certainly looks like most of us are guaranteed at least some rain from the system. What's uncertain is whether the storm largely rains itself out over the mountains like some models show or whether the low stays a bit stronger/more organized as other models show allowing more heavy rain east of the mountains. Not to forget, where any potential "squeeze play" sets up with southerly winds ahead of the low pushing into the cold front forcing extra lift along that front.

These soundings are a bit contaminated but they show some potential for Friday. I'm low-key watching it. The soundings are from Northern VA.

Hmmm...could see Cindy within 24 hours.

Confirmed.