George BM

I have little doubt that tornado tracks will ultimately be confirmed near Fredericksburg and in northern Maryland.

I got a taste of @EastCoast NPZ's magic this week. Other than a couple big drops of rain Monday and a brief light/moderate shower yesterday afternoon with the cell that fizzled over me ( maybe ~0.05" total?) it was a shutout for me here in Herndon. Positive Spining Time : Less mowing. My grass has barely grown since last mowing it two Saturdays ago.

PDS STW or bust! My two amateur pennies: With a WNW to ESE boundary nearby (just to our northeast) tomorrow a few storms could pop. While shear looks fairly modest, low-level lapse rates look to be very steep with mid-level lapse rates around 6+C/km. Any storms that do pop will have a good environment for downburst winds. A potential limiting factor would be slightly lower low-level moisture content (PW 1.25"+, MeanW: 10g/kg or so). But slightly cooler mid-level temps may offset that a bit. Thursday is more dependent on what happens upstream late Wednesday/early Thursday. But flow/shear look to be stronger at least.

Western Fairfax county peeps represent!

Same here so far. The smoke will be thickest tomorrow both aloft and near the surface.

Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons. IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers.

Becoming increasingly smoky aloft from this evening onwards. Tomorrow will be hazy with smoke aloft.

Hence my "Enjoy. " Remark. Really hope your luck changes.

@EastCoast NPZ Enjoy.

That 25-27K theta-e difference. Is that between the 1000mb and 500mb level?

Suddenly your display name makes sense.

Personal amateur thoughts (correct me where needed): Yeah. That I-66 line was doomed once the southern storms quickly matured (close enough to the I-66 line to rob it of lift.) They would also have to deal with the high clouds blowing northwards from the southern storms blocking sunshine from reaching the surface stunting low-level mixing, again, making storm survival more difficult. The gust front from the southern storms sealed the deal.

I just hope that those of us, especially west of I-95 can cash in on a south to north moving band of heavy rain/thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty winds. There should be moderate CAPE ahead of the cloud/rain shield given higher low-level moisture content and limited sunshine developing across Virginia. It would at least seem tropical for a bit.

Nah. You're perfectly safe posting any beer choices you please. I'd use extreme caution when posting your preferred Weenie-Os choices though.

You probably know this but Elsa is a hurricane again. BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES