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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. I feel like this insanely warm MDR is going to lead to some Hugo type evolutions, whereas they get really intense really fast and far to the east....thus while peak intensity in terms of wind is out over the fish, we end up with some dreadful storm surges from land falling, expansive post EWRC systems. This is why I actually feel like we may not see the barrage on intense landfall in terms of max sustained winds that some may expect, but as we know the surge is the most dangerous aspect. And of course, always in the look out for home-brew systems that can spin up fast at close range...those could threaten with particularly intense landfalls in terms of wind.
  2. I don't think we have had a rock-bottom dreadful La Nina winter on the heels of a hyper active tropical season, so there is that. I think the floor this year is a 1999-1999, 2005-2006 (that one Feb event was a fluke) type of season, but the envelop of potential outcomes is much more densely clustered near the floor than the ceiling, if that makes sense...
  3. IDK about "very good", but odds are it will be somewhat better.
  4. Kind of like the ACE during La Nina. Not that it matters, but I don't think he is as clueless as he appears. I just think he became enslaved by capitalism so much that he began forecasting backwards and seeking out data to support a preconceived notion out of deference to the all mighty dollar.
  5. I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental.
  6. I think as continue to see more frequent anomalous nodes of warmth throughout the planet as a byproduct of CC, we will also continue to see drastic shifts like this that are more preavlent than in the past. This is because not only will the need for the plaent to budget for and redistribute said heat nodes impact the atmosphere, but we will also see compensatory regimes several years or even decades down the line. This will lead to a lot of knee-jerk conclusions among scientists and this is what we are already witnessing.
  7. Right. Some think it may be permanent, but I find that hard to believe.....the planet will find some mechanism to achieve balance IMHO. If we're being honest, this West Pac warm pool is the vehicle through which the globe is balancing after all of those "warm blob" seasons last decade, when the west had a huge muti-year drought. Like I have said, still paying for 2014-2015 back this way. And yes...I still feel like it was worth it.
  8. Totally agree. It was moderate all things considered...the thing is that the forces competing with El Nino to negate its influence to that of a moderate event also conspired to ruin winter in the east, so we didn't benefit from it. This is why some of the mega-el nino crowd is misguidededly claiming victory. This is the crux of why I think @raindancewx has had so much success of late.....he incorporates what is actually happening around the globe so heavily into his outlooks that he is less likely to be run astray by any one factor such as ENSO, etc. He could anticipate that while El Nino would not be as prominent a driver as many had figured, the weather around the globe was still behaving in a manner consistent with East coast dud-seasons. This will become an increasingly crucial aspect of seasonal forecasting as CC continues to assert itself, thus altering the interaction of the myriad of global factors that we consider. Some really prescient techniques on his part. We need to not stop focusing so much on what the global atmosphere is saying to us and start focusing more on what its actually doing. Its like the old addage with respect to people..."actions speak louder than words"...we really need to adhere to this within the context of seasonal forecasting during an expedited rate of CC. What the globe is saying is often no longer consistent with its actions and seasonal forecasters need to take heed and adapt to this reality. I think I am on the right track, but obviously have a lot to learn and being weak with respect to statistics makes it a taller task for me.
  9. This in conjunction with the solar min is why I feel like we will play catch up in terms up seasonal snowfall along the east coast near the turn of the decade.
  10. I think you could say 1998....normally a major ENSO event will help to trigger a multi decadal shift like that. We had the 1972 major El Nino leading that shift and the 1998 super El Nino later in the 90s. I feel like this -PDO cycle will end late this decade. I know some of the space weather/solar guys feel the same way.
  11. This in conjunction with GW is why El Nino had a difficult time coupling last season and we continued to see so much Maritime forcing. Thus those saying "See, I told you strong El Nino means warm" have no clue what really went on.
  12. I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does. JMHO.
  13. Obviously the climate is warming dramtically, but a lot of folks don't realize that the vast majority of that warming is experienced during periods of time when the stakes are lower...ie the ability for heat to escape on clear, calm nights is reduced significantly. However, the lack of snowfall of late, at least in this region, is due primarily to just bad patterns mixed with some awful luck. Its comical how the stars have aligned perfectly to avoid a well placed/time high. Simple as that. Even Raindance will tell you this....the pattern has blown for the east. Its not some magical tipping point....but even if you want to entertain the notion that the warmer west Pac is causing said changes, there is still some dreadful luck that we can just never time a high right. We have had shit seasons in the past were we caught a break and got big snow, anyway.
  14. I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element..
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