40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Hockey and Keeping Fit.

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  1. 89 off a low of 59 here today...hottest portion of the state.
  2. Spiked up to 66 for about 15 minutes around 415 for the Hi, otherwise it was low 60's. Low of 46.4.
  3. Back to 62.2....wind still NE.
  4. 63/57 and still cloudy here at the NH border in Methuen.
  5. Verification: https://www.blogger.com/u/1/blog/post/edit/2820149554058213224/3271427891031056834 Final Grade is a D+. Here is the brief version: Abstract Although the 2019-2020 seasonal forecast did have some forecasting victories, such as the development of an el nino, a cold and snowy start to the season in December and the rapid warm up as the holidays approached, it ultimately left a great deal to be desired. The 1969-1970 season was utilized as a primary analog with the notable caveat that not as much seasonal blocking was anticipated in the aggregate. But rather the parallel between the two seasons was made due to the postulation that the winter of 2020 would eventually develop that same proclivity to develop high latitude blocking on the heels of another meager el nino, which the 1969-70 season did. However, this season exhibited that one month that would feature the propagating poleward heat flux necessary to induce significant blocking during the second half of the season, as opposed to the 1969-70 analog, which featured the most stout blocking in January. The very mild middle of the season was expected, but it was even more protracted and warmer than forecast. Couple this with the fact that the crucial development of blocking took several weeks longer to materialize than forecast and what had began as a very promising outlook devolved into our worst yet. And by a wide margin at that. December-March Forecast Review Here is the DM period: What could be gleaned from this is that there would usually be a cold source expected to at least be nearby even in the event that sustained blocking did not materialize, which it did not, until spring. D-M Seasonal Composite December-March Outcome D-M Outcome The details for this past season are as follows Snowfall was under forecast at none of the 15 cities. Snowfall was over forecast at all 15 cities. Snowfall verified at none of the cities. City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” 15.8" +185% New York, NY 20-30" 4.8" +317% Philadelphia, PA 17-27" 0.3" +5,667% Baltimore, MD 15-25” 1.8" +733% Washington, DC 15-25” 0.6" +2,400% Albany, NY 65-75” 49.7" +31% Hartford, CT 50-60” 29.1" +72% Providence, RI 40-50” 13.2" +203% Worcester, MA 70-80” 44.9 +56% Tolland, CT 60-70" 31.4" +91% Methuen, MA 65-75” 44" +48% Hyannis, MA 20-30” 5" +300% Burlington, VT 80-90" 69.6" +15% Portland, ME 70-80” 59.6" +17% Concord, NH 65-75” 46.5" +40% Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 -.91 (DF) +.91 Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 -.57 +.72 ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.6C JFM ONI .52 Modoki Predicted Peak two months early, and .01 too cold. Modoki value +.02 greater than forecast. (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 +.65 +.80 Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 +2.22 +2.22 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 +1.20 +1.37 The mean forecasting error with respect to snowfall was an unfortunate 678.3%, which is by far the worst snowfall outlook dating over six seasons. Final Grade: D+ The mean forecasting error with respect to the previous seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows: 2018-2019: 90.4% 2017-2018: 13.2% 2016-2017: 35.3% 2015-2016: 71.4% 2014-2015: 10.9% Six season running mean error: 149.9% 24/86 (27.9%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast. 46/82 (56%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast. 16/82 (20%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range. This just in: Forecasting snowfall at very extended leads is difficult.
  6. I wish that I had included you on my spreadsheet because you maybe the one spot I would have nailed. lol Just missed BTV...
  7. Dude, you were on like an oasis of snow in a sea of turd....even CON, NH had under 50"...BTV had just under 70". I was bad, at 44", but not memorably abysmal like the coast and further south.
  8. Philly had .3" on the season.
  9. Thanks again for that brief tutorial, as my math skills have always been very deficient, which is a large reason why I never pursued a career in weather....much to the chagrin of family and friends. Hey, judging by these past two seasons, I made the right call. LOL Going back through all of my seasonal verification posts and making these corrections.
  10. Doing post analysis now, and it was ugly. My forecast is actually worse than last season's, despite the accurate December. Having the NAO materialize in April, as opposed to March was absolutely, catastrophically fatal with respect to my accuracy. The only redeeming factor is that I had the progression of the season correct, but the middle portion was uglier than I had imagined, and the recovery was too late. It looks much worse on paper, but it is what it is. I don't spin.
  11. Man, Boston really only got 15.8" this season? I didn't realize that it was quite that brutal...
  12. I'm not melting ...honestly .
  13. Glad I didn't waste time blogging about graupel.
  14. Yea, any accumulations will be high up in Berks, but even they aren't a lock with the later development.