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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Wilmington, MA, 111' ASL 20 mi NNW of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Hockey and Keeping Fit.

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  1. I'm pretty confident, Scott....I like next season given ENSO considerations, and potentially the year after with solar minimum fast encroaching.
  2. My thoughts remain unchanged. Weak to low-end moderate el nino...at best.....guidance beginning to stabilize. I mentioned back in like January....due to historical precedent, or lack thereof, I would strongly bet against a high-end el nino.
  3. Yea, once the mid levels went, the BL stayed crap.
  4. Join the club...My first call was 8-14". I had one final call map out for 6-12", but ended up going 10-16" after the EURO came out Friday PM. Usually late trends are telling, but not this time.
  5. We'll just leave it at that....but just understand, that in order to sustain a sufficiently cold BL under March 31 solar insolation, you need heavy snowfall rates most of the day.
  6. It was both, but the primary impetus was the mid levels.
  7. Yes there is: 1) You insist that it snowed heavily most of the day. It did not. 2) Your inability to understand that the hours of sleet as opposed to snow, as a result of the warming mid levels, is why the temps warmed early Sat AM. In short, we failed to sustain heavy precip when it was snow early on, which reduced the capacity to undergo both latent and evaporative cooling. And by the time that the precip did get heavy, the mid levels had warmed and it was sleet, again inhibiting the ability to evaporatively cool via melting snowflakes. It was actually replaced by latent warming because of the energy produced by the melting sleet.
  8. In his defense, what else is there to do on a weather forum these days....and for the next 210.
  9. No, its a matter of your misperception of what you observed, and your misattributing of what you actually did. The disregarding of empirical data enables this rigid line of "thinking". Period-
  10. You're right, regardless of the fact that a wealth of empirical data suggests otherwise. I'm glad this is settled.
  11. Exactly why I mentioned "anecdotal" and tried to steer the conversation in a more empirically-based direction.
  12. I know there is most certainly an element of hypocrisy accompanying what I am about to say....but people are just so quick to use anecdotal BS to construct a connection between the low snow totals and BL temps because its the easy way out. They don't care to dig further. Affix a neat little bow, offer each other a congratulatory tug in the circle jerk O' celebration, and ride off into the sunset. It doesn't work that way...at least if you possess a modicum of ambition to hone your skills. Jesus....I remember that I pretty much nailed the death winter of 2015 on paper, but spent most of my outlook verification post explaining why I was lucky BC I based my forecast largely on the SAI. The AO was positive.
  13. It did not snow hard for very long. You're wrong. Do we need to extract airport obs to mull over vis reports? I don't know why this concept is so difficult, but its a good sign that its probably time to leap into my seasonal hiatus.
  14. Because snow growth was shot when mid level temps warmed in the snow growth region. This is why ratios were like 7 or 8:1 I'm done here...if you don't understand that now, then you never will. Will, Scott and I are all wrong...pope knows best; go it.
  15. Because by the time the heavy precip got here with sufficiently cool mid levels, the low levels were already torched because the mid levels were skunked for so long...it took time to cool, and snowgrowth sucked because -10-16C is the optimal range in that zone. Replacing latent cooling with latent heating for about 20 hours is costly.