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40/70 Benchmark

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About 40/70 Benchmark

  • Birthday 11/16/1980

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLWM
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
  • Interests
    Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.

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  1. I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.
  2. No worries, do whatever gets your rocks off....judment free zone this day and age.
  3. Just about to the time of year when 80s are climo.
  4. Yea, 2010-2011 was my primary ENSO analog...I agree, there. In hindsight, I feel like a moron for mixing up December and January considering that 2010-2011 with the epic January was so high on my list of ENSO analogs.
  5. That's about the ceiling for this time of year...lay out on the naked and hope to view an ominous cloud that will look not so ominous as it makes it over the ORH hills on approach.
  6. Yea, I don't get my rocks off by staring at fat men's sweat stains like some....this is fine by me.
  7. Heat queens be queening, temp jack be jacking....me? I'm still smiling....
  8. I don't think it will be anything more than a weak la nina...in fact, I'm pretty confident of that. This is not a bad development....take a weak la nina this season, and by punting on el nino for another year, it really sets us up for 2023-2024 with an easterly QBO and likely modoki el nino. Think of this as the bridge year, and all the chips are laid out in 2023-2024. As for this year more specifically, the PAC won't be as hostile as it was last season, so its not like we won't have a shot. One thing to watch for is that this could be more of a central-based modoki la nina than last year, which was east-based. That in a vacuum is not good, but its not that big of a deal when the ENSO signal itself is relatively meager, such as it should be this winter. If it is more central based, I feel like this year will be more front loaded than last year, so it maybe a better holiday season and a more subpar mid season relative to last year. The one and only reason last season was not an unmitigated disaster the likes of 2011-2012 is because the la nina was very east-biased, which allowed for that poleward Aleutian ridge mid season to provide a nice wintery stretch....without that, it would have been 3 months of "shut off the lights and close the door".
  9. Highly anecdotal, but I'm not just saying it because I like snow....also, understand that the period would still be much milder than the 60s due to climate change. Just mean more -PDO/NAO.
  10. Complete agreement. Its cool to arrive at the same conclusion via so many different methodologies....lends itself to increased confidence. I don't see an el nino...doesn't mean that it won't be a good winter in the east, but it is what it is.
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