40/70 Benchmark

Weak el nino.

Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.

35.1 LOW

I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.

37.2 and dropping...

Reminds me of a less active 1995.

Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/enso-and-qbo-derived-preliminary-winter.html

I'd quite frankly be stunned if la nina materialized.

I didn't do great on Dorian...but not awful. B- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/09/hurricane-dorian-verification.html

Suprised they call that a LF. Still a good call, but lost in OT.

I did that early Monday AM

Its a simple comment. Go sit in a corner and relax.

Yes, never understood the confidence in a LF....always looked to recurve parallel to the coast, but we'll see. Still time.

We'll see.