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About 40/70 Benchmark
- Birthday 11/16/1980
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KLWM
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Methuen, MA, 154' ASL 30 mi N of Boston
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Interests
Snow, Canes , Baseball, Football and Keeping Fit.
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You get so defensive when someone doesn't milk your snowman prostate.
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For the most part, a very mild and snowless December in La Niña is a very bad sign. -
2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not me....I was out over a month ago. My overall outlook was a fail, but I was never in on a big ending. -
I agree in an absolute sense....ie biased warmer everywhere. However, where I think the debate is more fervent is with respect to why the eastern CONUS has been getting boned so much more than the west. I am not sold on that imbalance being entirely a product of CC, whereas the general background warming is. I still believe the imblanace is more of a cyclical phenomenon.
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I think most would sign for that winter right now given the shit we have been force-fed of late.
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Odds are we will see a flatter Aleutian ridge, which isn't so great. The key in a Modoki La Nina is to keep it weak, which looks unlikely.
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Thing is if Canada is cold, which is more likely in a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that....
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Yea, even the few times there is some cold around, it just never links up.
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That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for.
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You laugh, but honestly...past couple I felt would be somewhat mild with climo like snowfall and they have been brutal.
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Well, early sentiment is for a healthy Modoki La Nina working in conjunction with a +QBO/descending solar...doesn't take a CC zealot to know to temper expectations. We probably have about 3-4 more bleh-ish seasons before we catch a break in the latter half of the 2020s is my guess.....probably at least one big season as the Pacific changes and we near solar min. Yes, I understand what a shot in the dark that speculation is....again, "just my (educated) 'guess' ". We really need a decent season fast because its become increasingly exhasting around this place....you need so many qualifiers so someone doesn't bite your head off.
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I think there are pretty low expectations for next season.
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Glad I checked out mid Feb. Happy "tracking"...
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Today was nasty...only topped out at 42
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My last one was a Davis...tried Ambient this go around and its worth it because its much, much cheaper, more user friendly and not a huge downgrade in terms of accuracy.