40/70 Benchmark

That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive... 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month.

Man, 12.8 for the low and just 35.6 for the hi. Frigid...

Steve will be by the web cam with the doggies...licking the screen and all...right there with them..

No, that's real in theory..but then again, no one lives there to confirm

Edge of my seat...let me fire up the blog for those six dear..

Those are my thoughts for December...very active with cold around, but it won't be frigid with no blocking, so there will be precip type issues. Well timed NAO could rely produce bigtime, though..

Euro.

@Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data...

Oh, all valid points. Its far from an exact science....totally debatable.

No worries....its relevant.

Vicarious congrats, @Ginx snewx

You need to keep in mind that the negative QBO is not descending until like February, which could factor in...

13.1/10.4

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.