40/70 Benchmark

That guy is an enormous toolbag and is the embodiment of what social media has done to online meteorologists. The desire to increase traffic has corrupted the very products that they attempt draw in folks to view....everything is dramatic hype. Same thing that JB fell prey to.

Below is the reason why. The reason I whiffed last season is because I misinterpreted the impications of el nino being partially negated by the west PAC....I concepotualized it as simply a weaker El Nino, which is more favorable for winter....but what actually was taking place was the West Pacific competing and largely overpowering the El Nino.

It doesn't matter if the ONI remains weak, the La Nina Walker cell will still be at least moderately intense for the same reason that we saw the continuation of the cool ENSO regime during an onstensibly powerful el Nino last year....the west Pacific warmth.

Completely agree.

What a weenie orgie this thread is Sickos...

I agree...two completely different hemispheric landscapes.

The only aspect of 1995 that has value is using it as an ONI analog, but that doesn't mean very much in the grad scheme of things.

I don't see that happening...very lucrative and powerful industry. Rates would hike even more, sure.

I can't for the life of me figure out why snowman is still 5 PPD....and I honestly mean that. Sure, he has somewhat of a bias, but I think most of us with a pulse do. He brings alot to the table....well, as much as the 5PPD limitation permits, anyway.

I could see a toned down version of that winter, but as Brooklyn just pointed out, the extra tropical Pacific should be more hostile this go around.

We should know in about 7-9 years.

If we get DM -WPO/-EPO and modestly to moderately DM +NAO and -PNA with volatility, I bet many would be content.

I could totally see us salvaging winter due to the EPO/WPO....and considering the NAO + will average, that would probably entail some decent PNA flexes per your work. And I don't mean 2014 or 1995 when I say "salvage".... I think from about my area near the NH border and up could do well in that scenario, but points south would probably be limited by the EPO...maybe a 2007-2008 like gradient? Qualitative comp, not quanitative.....I don't expect 140" in Concord, NH.

Yes. He hasn't predicted a -WPO winter....just implied that its very possible.

And I hope no one interprets this as me questioning CC because I'm not....just referring to the larger scale shift that has porked the east relative to the western CONUS that some are attributing to CC. We could also see a bit of a drop off from the uber heat due to natural cycles/variation and still be realizing CC.