40/70 Benchmark

Where do you get those modoki value charts?

2006-07 was moderate.

Euro would be adjusting by now if it were a head fake.

Yea, I mentioned Ventrice's indicator as support for why this el nino won't fizzle like last season.

1991-1992 was a strong el nino, and 1994-1995 was east-based moderate. You should have done the research. You do realize that a positive NAO is hostile for above normal mid atl snowfall, correct? This has nothing to do with what I WANT to happen....but your assertions are simply not reality based. When the data supports it, then I will favor the mid atl....just like I did in the outlook that I released 3 months prior to the The Great February 2016 Mid Atl blizzard. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2015/11/winter-outlook-2016-tale-of-two-seasons.html "As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points south and westward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to not only see above average snowfall, but perhaps exceedingly so. They should experience greater positive seasonal snowfall anomalies than observed here in New England". "There will absolutely be a storm/blizzard of historic proportions along the east coast this season. Whether it favors the interior, or coast remains to be seen, but someone will have infrastructure paralyzed for a spell of time". "The last week of January, the first 10 days of February, or the first two weeks of March. Perhaps timing may prove erroneous, but an outright failure of this to occur will be considered an abject failure of the Eastern Mass blog as it relates to this particular outlook". That was a much stronger el nino, so the intense STJ favored miller A cyclogenesis to be prominent that season. If you would like, I can link you to the outlook in which I predicted the immense E SNE blizzard 2.5 months before it took place, as well as the large seasonal snowfall surplus focused on E SNE...because it was a weak modoki el nino. I win some and I lose some, but I do not "wishcast".

If its east based, I would favor 2006 over 1997....this event and 1997 are two totally disparate ends of the intensity spectrum.

Another thing....if you want to argue weak modoki doesn't have to be cold....but then favor the mid atl for snowfall surplus? Probably not going to work....a mild weak el nino season is very unlikely to favor the mid stl....weak STJ fostering envt. ripe w Miller Bs, not to mention they need negative temp departures to snow. We don't-

Here, James.

I answered you.

We have split personalities....sometimes we warm and wet....sometimes we snow.

#1 You didn't mention the rationale for potentially straying from climo...which at several months lead seems odd. #2 First of all, name the weak modoki el nino events that featured above avg NE temps...secondly, you shifted the debate. My contention was favored area for max seasonal snowfall surplus, not temps. 2004-2005 may have been a bit mild, but take a look at there max snowfall anomaly was, which is the point.

What are the chances of appreciable sunshine on Saturday? It doesn't look good, as far as I can gather...

Last season it was already correcting cooler quickly at this point. Steady as she goes this year-

I'm a fan of his work....that is not available for public consumption, is it? I remember you referenced that earlier this summer when some were trying to call faux el nino event again....you cited that in disputing it.

Yea, MEI can be different...hence my 2003 reference. My guess is ONI.