40/70 Benchmark

I do, although sometimes I will reference a more anecdotal note such as a "triple dip la Nina" composite, etc....I remember I lead with that for the 2021-2022 season, but its by no means the basis of the forecast...that would be silly. Agreed. I include that more for just "$hits and giggles"....but I will refer back to it my seasonal work leads to a similar result.

Weaker ENSO is coldest because it affords more opportunity for a colder outcome due to the increased reliance on extra tropical forces, but they absolutely can be warm...its more of an issue of how UNLIKELY very strong ENSO regimes are to be cold.

Well, you have been west of the predominate storm track that past severeal years.

1990-1991 wasn't even a cold winter.

Not sure @bluewavewould agree...

Yea, my area has had a lot of bad luck even relative to the general drought.

I can fathom the higher terrain of the Worcester hills and Berkshires, up into NNE seeing an increase, but I think I am too far south/close to the coast. Hopefully I can break even with a more feast or famine distribution moving forward.

Eh...I think the increase is probably north of me, or at least further inland/elevated. I don't think my snowfall on the interior CP of northern Mass is going to go up verses the longer term climo. Maybe the increased moisture and warmer temps cancel out, as opposed to even further south along the CP....

I am open to the concept esstentially anywhere below the latitude of about Manchester, NH...however, from about Manchester points northward, they really haven't been struggling as much during this drought period. Its a viable possibility for CNE and SNE, but we clearly aren't there yet in NNE IMHO.

Entirely possible. Please don't mistake my tone for dismissiveness, as I am open to the idea, but just don't feel its a forgone conclusion yet. Of course that is more likely the further south one travels...

I agree regarding the growing feast or famine distributuon of the snowfall, but at least at this latitude, talk to me in 7 years regarding the bolded.

Goes along with my wholistic approach of measuring ENSO intensity being indicative of weak La Nina.

I live on the NH border. Obviously its possible mean snowfall is in decline even at this latitude, but I need to see more data than a 7 year snow drought on the heels of the snowiest decade on record capped off with over 100" in 30 days.

Talk to me in 7 years.

The vast majority have little knowledge of climo so their opinion is based entirely on anecodtal and subjective observations.