Blizzard of 93

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    Marysville, PA

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  1. These pictures of snow in the mountains & up in northern PA this morning show that we could have been close to a good storm if the track ended up near some of the earlier in the week modeled ideas. Even with a bad track, it was just cold enough to get some places enough snow to cause problems this morning.
  2. @canderson , should we all secure our trash cans yet again ?
  3. It looks like we are back in business for next weekend ! & just for the record I was born in 1977, so I was 15 when the Blizzard of 93 hit !
  4. We should have plenty to track over the next few weeks. It looks like we might be back in the game by the end of next week. If we keep taking swings, we will eventually hit one. Then maybe we will keep hitting until the end of March ?
  5. Yes, that was a classic! It was 1 Euro run a couple of days before the storm that gave us “only” 10- 15 inches of snow instead of 2 feet plus, & he cancelled the storm! Those NAM runs were epic! I remember saying to people that I’d never seen amounts like that show up on a weather model for my backyard on the day of a storm, & then it verified!
  6. I agree with you, all that we can ask for are chances for snow. I would almost rather have this with chances at moisture laden storms that might or might not give us snow, instead of weeks of extreme cold with dry frigid temps with occasional snow showers & Clippers. The next 2 weeks should present a few opportunities. I like the general concept late next week of 2 storms quickly following each other. If the first system doesn’t produce snow, then at least it can set the boundary for the next storm that could possibly come up the coast 2 days later.
  7. Great discussion in here earlier today about snow totals over the decades. Here is a good chart from CTP that shows the snow totals since 1980 at Harrisburg, along with the average & median at the far right part of the chart.
  8. Well, this weekend’s storm took a turn for the worse over the last day or 2.... But, it looks like we might have another chance Next weekend. One of these chances should work out if we keep getting opportunities.
  9. Yes, it’s going to be tough for York & Lancaster to get back in this one. But I think anyone along I -81 give or take a few miles & points west should still pay attention for now. I agree that the bullseye appears to be the mountains, but I would settle here for the scraps of a possible few inches of snow along I -81, just like last nights 0z GFS.
  10. Great forecast discussion by CTP this morning. If you are near I -81 or north & west of that, you are still in the game. Here is CTP’s Discussion: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the long term remains on the increasing likelihood of a highly elevation dependent snow event impacting the region beginning Friday night and continuing through much of Sat night as a Miller-B type surface scenario accompanies a well defined upper low that will develop across the Mid Miss valley and track east across Southern or Central PA Sat night. The 700 mb center is progged to move east along I-80 in Ohio and PA. After a mainly cloudy and rather mild Friday with temps in the upper 30s to around 40F, the boundary layer is expected to start out warm enough for primarily rain right at the onset in most areas. However, layer cooling associated with increasing uvvel, and evap cooling as the precip falls into the dry LLVl air will help to mix or change the precip over to wet snow across parts of Central and likely most or all of Ncent PA. Height falls and 1000-500 mb thicknesses falling to below 540 DAM will allow the precip to change over to snow, that will fall at a moderate to heavy rate at times late Friday night and Saturday. Of particular interest will be later Saturday morning into Sat afternoon when elevated instability being transported north toward South-central PA and areas of fairly strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis could lead to some 1-2 inch per hour, heavy snowfall rates anywhere northwest of the I-81 corridor. Critical thickness and 850 mb zero wet bulb line will exist somewhere between I-99 and I-81 during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, and this is where the greatest uncertainty is with respect to precip type and intensity. Again, we`re messaging the point that the initially warm boundary layer and periods of strong, dynamic forcing will lead to a very elevation dependent snowfall across Central and Northern PA with notably lower chances for significant snow near and to the SE of I-81. Snow accums by late Sat night could approach 8 inches at elevations over 2000 ft MSL in northern PA with 4-6 inches possible at the same elevations in Central PA. Accums in the valleys (depending on their exact elevation) will vary from 3-5 inches in the north to between 1-3 inches in most of Central PA. The threat for any sleet and/or FZRA is very minimal at this point. Increased pops for Friday night into Sat as a result of the anomalous southeasterly low level jet (over 50 kts at 850 mb) and plume of Atlantic moisture overrunning a dome of cold/stable air east of the Appalachians. This justifies categorical POPs Friday night into Saturday. The latest GEFS mean qpf ranges from 0.6 to 1 inch across the forecast area by Saturday evening.
  11. The 0z Euro & 6z GFS put the I-81 corridor out of the game for the weekend snow. They still do like @MAG5035 & @2001kx Still 3 days for shifts to determine the final storm development & track.
  12. The western & northern parts of our counties (Perry for me & Franklin for you) also get crushed by the 0z GFS, along with Western Cumberland County as you mentioned. It is so close to getting the rest of the LSV in the game. This run @Bubbler86 , @sauss06 , @CarlislePaWx & @canderson and l need less than a 25 mile shift to get in the 6 inch plus snow range according to the GFS. In the meantime, the bullseye appears to be @MAG5035 & @2001kx , with honorable mention to @Wmsptwx We still have 3 days to shift the bullseye around & hopefully we all get in a piece of the snow action!
  13. I was just having a little fun ! This one will come down to the wire for us in the LSV. Hopefully it trends right to get us all in the game.
  14. Yes, same here with the EPS for several runs showing 3 inches of snow around the Harrisburg area.
  15. I can’t wait until we extrapolate the end of the NAM run again in a few minutes...