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pasnownut

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About pasnownut

  • Birthday 06/02/1969

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLNS
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Akron Pa
  • Interests
    Outdoors/snowmobiling/bicycling/weather

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  1. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    With all due respect, if you understand it's climo.....then you should stop right there and be done w/ your statement. As psu suggested, 3" is all that is normal, so while the pattern isnt great right now, its not impossible to "luck" your way into climo. there are several opps for something showing on the models, and with a potential correction (as ISO alluded to), its reasonable to see a chance or 2 before a wholesale shift to what were all waiting for happens.
  2. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Yeah i know you havent been spouting torch talk. I think it possible to sneak 1 or 2 events w/ cold close enough to at least take the edge off of the "wasted" time waiting. If this SSW spit continues, it will be cool to watch evolution and how it plays into Jan. I'm rather green regarding how it will sensibly affect things, but look forward to seeing how it factors in.
  3. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Thats a great reminder regarding the pos anomalies that we would see north of us. Some will think were in trouble but in Jan/Feb its not as big a deal and as you said it will be likely "cold enough" for it to snow. While i think your right that it may take from mid Jan onwards, I'd think that by this time next week, we may be seeing 10 day maps that get things looking more interesting. Its no shutout pattern, so for me, thats a win in and of itself. Transient is fine.
  4. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Seeing that ISO is still holding the line, is great and lends credence to our SSW convo that some have been chatting about. Looking like we should see the effects as we head towards the New Year, and per his read, he things the SE ridge is being overmodeled. Even if we get zonal pattern, it surely isnt a horrible base state to have something NS drop in to pay a visit. Thats how i see it anyway.
  5. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Very true. We've seemingly got the STJ working, just need the canooks to get their sh!t together and we'll be doing just fine. Overnights have taken a slightly more workable look in the way out there range. Seeing that cold dumping into the west just hurts when we finally have all players showing up. Just need them to play nice and it could be a really nice time here in the east.
  6. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    I know what he’s talking about but mid Jan is no time to be discussing “wasted snow”. That’s all. Jack rabbit in a date. I like that one. Lol
  7. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    that IS a rather bold statement, and one I'm not sure why you are saying..... I cant believe your suggesting the sun angle talk in mid december...thats like Weenie Of The Year material right there.
  8. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    @Bob Chill thx Bob. Anxious to see how this SSW evolves, and agree that it has been a rarity to see it work into guidance. Just sounds like this one might be the real deal. fwiw, like you, psu and others, I'm nowhere near throwin any towels in, but last week of dec looks not so festive, and as you've been touting. Not a "good" call, but a nice one by you. I thought i saw enough to find a way out, and guess I was blinded by the Christmas spirit (or spirits...or something). Long ago we knew December was a bonus month for any white gold, so I'll just chase the pill w/ some spiked eggnog, and like i suggested in the Cent pa thread, I think in a week (or so), we'll be back to better looks on guidance.
  9. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    As I'm looking for the silver lining, I've always been intrigued by the SSW, and its affects, I'm wondering if the current episode (that seems to have legs) might be able to help to get us back to a more favorable look, or further enhance the effects of the Nino, but my fear is that it might take till late Jan, as i've read that its typically a 30ish day lag time for downwelling to occur at levels we want to look at. IF not a full blown SSW, my wonder is that even if its just a peturbation, could that be enough to dislodge the cold and get this party started sooner than later. Thoughts?
  10. pasnownut

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    yeah, was just reminding myself that a few weeks back back half of December was looking warm, and that surely seems to be gaining traction. Even though we recently were teased w/ better LR looks, that surely has eroded, so hopefully once to Christmas, we can start seeing 500mb maps start to match up in the extended. Hate to say it, but Bob sniffed this rat out. Didn't want to believe him, but it is what it is. Looking like a good call. The optimist in me says this week isnt horrid, so lets get through it and see where we go from there. (By horrid, i mean no 70's). Yes we may likely be on the wrong side of storms, but while i want snow....i HATE anomalous warmth around the holidays.
  11. pasnownut

    Central PA Fall 2018

    looks to me like NE/poconos is best spots to see the snow from tomorrows event. Meso's like that region most, but some upslope will also be seen back in the laurels/cent mountains at elevation. I hope it happens for those that can get it, because things have turned rather scroogish beyond next week. Lets just say that 500MB maps have colors in all the wrong places. Too far out to get worried, but I'm starting to worry.
  12. pasnownut

    Central PA Fall 2018

    were in good hands now. Bring it home bud. 1 Santa out....
  13. pasnownut

    Central PA Fall 2018

    the way i look at it, when things "looked" great.....we got jack. So now that things look boring/mundane, lets look for something and see where we go. Pattern isn't ripe for snow, but its not a shut the shades deal either. More of a see/saw.....yee/haw kinda deal till we near Christmas. Gut says that a week from now, we may be sending the dogs out to track. Sure hope so. IF...big if....we can get a zonal/split flow kinda deal like some OP/Ens guidance has hinted at, it could be fun as we are approaching peak snow climo, so its "easier" for it to snow round these here parts. Headed on the road to play santa to clients, so someone find something for us to gaze at today. Nut
  14. pasnownut

    Central PA Fall 2018

    my work is done................ and your soooo easy.
  15. pasnownut

    Central PA Fall 2018

    Since there's not much to talk about, I'll just throw this out there to give the Christmas miracle a little hope.... Just use your imagination....and a little meteo madness that most of us supposedly come here for....and draw your own conclusions. Purely for fun
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