AllWeather

Meteorologist
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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLNS
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  • Location:
    Lancaster, PA

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  1. I'm in agreement. If it's 33/34 and puking snow at sunset, you can forget about what the temp is. It'll accumulate.
  2. This little bit of overrunning is going to help us stay cool thanks to less insolation/more wet-bulbing. Despite starting a bit milder than guidance, it may all even out in the wash as the main batch moves in. HRRR looks like it's catching up to this idea. Giddy up.
  3. True. It's a catch-22. Best rates after dark in eastern zones, BUT also spots to be warmest that need to be cooled the most. Heck, it's 36 already at LNS.
  4. Can't imagine much of a diurnal with virga in your spot. I'm more "worried" about eastern counties.
  5. Yeah I feel dirty going with 7" in our range, but again if we're thumping with 1-2" per hour rates in some spots, it won't take much to pile it on.
  6. I'm struggling with this one, to be honest. While many of the high-res & global models show us going straight to snow, the HRRR and the RPM (our in-house model) shows some rain to start with torched BL conditions. Is the HRRR overplaying the warmth? Probably. BUT it is initializing the closest with current obs, as we are a couple to a few degrees milder than the NAM/GFS/EURO...those models have us in the upper 20s right now. Yeah, we'll likely thump later today with temps cooling, but still slightly above freezing in the best thumping. In that case we'll still see accumulations. I'm wondering if the dyanamic elements producing better than 10:1 ratios helps overcome the burning of QPF on a warm BL. Anywho, we're going 3-7 for most of the region, especially the LSV, with lower amounts farther north.
  7. They missed the 6 PM news cycle, so most stations have a 10/11 PM (or both), so they may be waiting for the some of the 00z before pulling the trigger.
  8. Thanks! Yeah, can't deny the trends. Interestingly enough, it's not really like the wave is much weaker (though it is a bit), but also oriented differently now that the northern stream is a bit sharper. So instead of more overrunning, we basically have to rely on a quick stripe of more dynamically driven stuff with the height of the storm. PS - Did the GFS just score another one?
  9. I think you guys have a pretty good handle on it. Reminds me of the November storm. I like 4-8” across the LSV before changing over. More in northern/western spots, especially at elevations. I’ve always tends to underperform from models but could see some 0.25” amounts with a few spots more than that in the typical sheltered “bowls”.
  10. No doubt the trend is there. Maybe the NAM scores one here. Of note is the strong easterly fetch of air by tomorrow morning. Off the mild ocean waters, can be underestimated by guidance. It has burned me several times in the past... Also, we’re sitting about 3-4 degrees warmer at the surface than the 0z NAM shows in soundings for this time. Not saying it means anything and it could even out in the wash, but something to watch. Not trying to be a buzz killington here, but these fine line set ups in November tend to pan out more toward the mixy scenario vs. the snowy one. There’s always an exception though, maybe this one is it? TBD
  11. Aloft in particular. Riding a very fine line between cold enough throughout the profile to support snow for longer. New NAM holds off the sleet a little longer than previous runs/other models because of the stronger omega in the DGZ, helps keep the column at/below freezing, and staves off the WAA aloft until later in the afternoon. If the omega is modeled too strong, then you don’t have that opportunity and you change over quickly. It really could go either way. If it’s all snow, it probably won’t be 10:1. Sloppy, wet, heavy stuff.
  12. Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one.
  13. Good to see Eric and our shop are in pretty good agreement: