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About MillvilleWx

  • Birthday 07/18/1990

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Midland, TX

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  1. Man, I am just now checking in on this event for back home. I'm glad everyone is safe, but losing power in the summer sucks and all the tree damage is depressing. I was on the road traveling back to TX from Nashville this weekend, so I had no clue until my friend at home texted me. Saw the radar images and they are pretty astounding for back east. Definitely one to remember.
  2. Yuppppppp. All of the above
  3. You are going to ruin @mappy day in under 1 hour today. Might be a new record. Yikes
  4. That was the most annoying news to wake up to on mids. Seriously
  5. Haven't had time to really look at things up until recently due to a multitude of reasons. Taking a peek at things, here's my one and only call for the storm. Hopefully you guys get a nice pasting tomorrow. I'll check in later in the day after I'm done sleeping. Currently on mid shifts. Enjoy the snow y'all Snowfall Forecast 1-3" for the metros 2-4" for the nearby burbs 4-6" for northern MoCo/Western HoCo up through Carroll County into the Hereford Zone of Balt Co (Areas below 700') 2-5" for rest of HoCo up through southern half of Balt Co 5-8" for areas over 700' along Parrs Ridge including Damascus/Mt Airy/Manchester. 4-7" for all of Frederick/Washington Counties 4-6" for Loudoun Co 2-4" for Fairfax Co 2-4" Northern Harford Co 1-3" Southern Harford Co 3-6" for Winchester up through the WV Panhandle. Iso to 7" on higher ridges
  6. Probably a bit underdone I would think. Height falls are solid and the thicknesses are ~510dm, which is a good airmass for at least teens in the AM and low 30s for the PM. This time of year you have a bit more variance in temps due to increased sun angle, but it shouldn't make too significant of a difference in the grand scheme. MEX for FDK is 21 on Sunday AM, so I think a few degrees cooler into the teens would be suitable. Highs around 35-38 for Central MD. Considering the flow veering to the E/SE, that could happen. Progressive pattern
  7. That cold shot this weekend for you guys is going to be no joke. One of the better airmasses of the season for the OH and TN Valley areas. Considering the time of year, it's definitely pretty robust
  8. These storms will scream meh on radar for severe purposes, but the winds could def materialize here. Enjoy the token Slight in March!
  9. Would absolutely love to chat at some point about all this! I have a lot of feedback to give for even my area of the country and how it fares. Perhaps a virtual meetup with a cocktail is in order? Feel free to PM me!
  10. What you said! Haha NBM is very intuitive and has so many parts, but it is a great tool to use on certain setups, and ice is actually not bad for a general storm sense since it drowns out the noise from the extreme members that could skew means considerably. I will saw it is not the best when it comes to extreme temp variations compared to climo and larger impact events that have a mesoscale foot print like a major snow/ice event or severe out break. They can give an idea of what could occur in a smoothed sense, but knowing your biases can help formulate a better forecast. That is awesome that you have worked with the Blend. I would love to hear more of the nitty gritty with NBM as I've used it for forecast purposes now for almost 4 years.
  11. It's actually a blend of of over 30 pieces of guidance both raw and bias corrected. There's a huge mix of guidance, some of which public doesn't have access to, and some that you do. Off the top of my head, I can name 15 or so, but there's a ton of others. Sorry I can't give the full details on the matter.
  12. NBM at 18z continues to target the northern tier with some ice accretion beginning Thursday night into early Friday before exiting out between 10-12z. A solid advisory type event possible with the current numbers with some sleet also in the mix. Still intriguing to see the totals being spit out by the blend. Even if 75%, it would certainly be a headache for any commute on Friday AM. I would plan ahead if I lived north of I-70, especially away from the Baltimore Metro.
  13. This is the current CIPS Analog guidance with probability of ZR exceeding 3+ hrs within the domain inside a 48hr period. This is centered at 00z Friday, so there's a pretty solid signal for some ZR over areas north of I-70 as shown just using CIPS guidance.
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