MillvilleWx

The most reputable source for QPF following an event is the stage 4 bias corrected dataset that takes in observations, as well as a wide array of gauge data sources to go along with bias corrected radar estimates. Here's a graphic with the final estimates from the event. This makes a lot more sense for your area.

Thank you for your sacrifice!

Classic tropical airmass, highly efficient and low topped killing the radar estimates. MRMS tells a very different story. Quite a storm for those west of the Bay.

Bump

I'm in the camp of Vikings win, but Miami covers the current +12/12.5 number. If Jefferson plays, maybe they have a shot to cover, but without him, Miami could sneaky cover that one. Weirder stuff has happened and the NFL is tough to cover 12+ in game. However, I will say teams that are specifically +13.5 tend to cover more than teams between +10.5 to +13 historically. Don't know why, but definitely a weird trend for betting.

The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution.

I know I'm late to respond to this and I'm not the biggest fan of JLC, but he is dead on with this assessment. Thanks for the share!

Judging by the positioning of the ridge and the expected timing of the front, Friday AM looks like a good time. I would say the best time is Thursday evening, so whatever works best for your schedule. Definitely want to do it before the weekend.

It'll break for the daytime at some point, but you're caught in a nice band of stratus that extends NW to SE out of PA. Judging by guidance, you should see some sun by the late-morning hours, but then clouds look to roll back in again after 6 or so. Areas south of Rt 50 will see more sun today.

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts.

1.67" for the event. Solid soaking. The trees and grass are loving it here in the lowlands. I'm personally loving these temperatures! Slept like a bear the last few nights with the windows half opened.

FYP

We don't have the same coaching staff and more importantly, the same HC. Have to keep the faith. I trust this staff and the weapons we have in Lamar and Henry.

Obviously wasn't as good, but we were still moving the football. We went into a slower paced, methodical play calling setup and the Colts made some adjustments. Still moved the ball and got 10 points in the 4Q. Going to have to be next man up and probably a lot more running the rock. Our next 3 opponents we can do just that. New Orleans is talented, so need the defense to remain vigilant and prevent them from gaining rhythm. Kellen Moore runs a high octane offense, but their defense is a liability. Have to use a lot of 12 and 13 personnel and play some bully ball. Play action will need to be utilized too. I have faith in Doyle. He called a heck of a game today. If we can win games without Zay, that would be massive.

Thought the Ravens did really well for a Game 1 with no preseason work to gel. They had some bad penalties, which is probably my biggest issue overall. They also had some massive holes opened up, so you can see the promise. Considering the circumstance, I'm feeling good for the OL. According to doctors on SM who are solid follows the past few years, Zay injury doesn't sound serious. It was tightness and not a straight pull up lame that usually comes with a strain or tear. Sounds like maybe a game or two, so hopefully that is the reveal tomorrow after MRI's. I have no clue on Lane, so beats me on that one. Sucks to lose a young, promising player like him to something that sounds very fluky. Hopefully he heals up and comes back and makes an impact the second half of the year (If it is broken or moderate/severely sprained). Next man up! Welcome to the NFL. I'm genuinely happy about the defense. With the addition of Matubueke sometime this season, that will be massive for the interior. Colts have a top 3 OL in football, so it doesn't surprise me on their ability to run it. The key was they were pressured a ton in this one and made Jones uncomfortable. I have no doubt Minter will have this team playing lights out as the season moves forward.