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About MillvilleWx

  • Birthday 07/18/1990

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    Midland, TX

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  1. Wish I could look at thermals, but just given the algorithm in place and the surface temps, looks like a quick burst of snow in the beginning, then a nasty ice storm west of the Fall line. East of the fall line is a minor event with some snowfall, short period of ice, then ice cold rain. This is a verbatim take, and it's the ICON. I'll wait for the better models and withstand judgement.
  2. I remember an event back in 2015 after we had a long stretch of sub freezing days at Millersville, we had a touch of snow to sleet and then ZR. We actually had 0.1” accretion while temps hovered between 32-34F. It was incredible to see ice build up on the ground above freezing. There’s a lot to ZR and the physical process of ice. It’s actually quite fascinating. .
  3. It’s certainly not as efficient, but it can still be ugly when the antecedent conditions leading in are pretty cold. A lot of the surfaces will remain solidly below freezing despite air temp being at freezing. Urban areas will have a harder time with accretion, but out to the north and west, it’s probably closer to 30 and really ugly. .
  4. 100% mashed potatoes. Almost back breaking snow trying to shovel the next morning. I had ~20" NW of 95. I was in the heart of that band for hours. We hit 4"/hr between 115-215AM that night. Thundersnow woke up my dad, who then woke me up, which lead to us staying up all night watching and taking measurements. Great father and son moment. What a great memory. Edit: Sorry for going a bit off topic. Those analogs are very much conducive for wintry weather. Ridge over the top with mean trough in the east, EPO ridge in place, and low anomalies where the Aleutian low is parked. There's also a hint of low anomalies off the Pac/Baja coast. Likely some result of southern stream influence judging by the buckling heights out there.
  5. Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen.
  6. Lamar made some decent outside throws last night, but he had some rough ones mixed in. I'm still mad at Roberts dropping what would've been an easy TD with his speed. Bottom line is the whole offense didn't show up, coaching was terrible for the first time in a while, and it all culminated into a bad loss at literally the worst time. I have confidence we can work on some issues and play well next year. We absolutely need an edge pass rusher, one or two more WR's with outside threats that can catch, and more OL at G. More DB's doesn't hurt either. But pass rush and WR are a MUST.
  7. Try out Pulaski, NY off the east side of Ontario. Should be mostly snow there, both from synoptic and lake effect on the backside of the low. You also have I-90 to your disposal to move north or south. Slide down to Oswego and hit up the Oswego Sub Shop for a great corned beef or pastrami sandwich.
  8. There's just something so satisfying about a good dry aged steak. I'll have to give the Capital Grille a try for my wife and I's Bday this year (Both turn 30 in the summer). Nice little getaway to Dallas where they have a spot uptown. Dry aged Bone-In Ribeye sounds heavenly
  9. I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix.
  10. Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week.
  11. Come on man. You know better. His wife left him too. .
  12. GFS is one step closer to Bob’s dream of a foot of ice [emoji2] .
  13. Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter. Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land. .
  14. Rain is actually not a given during the game. There's been a trend of a big lull in the precip field for Saturday afternoon and most of the evening prior to the front. Could be spitting drizzle during the game, but actual light rain is looking less and less prominent. Would bode well for us. Fingers crossed it stays the course.