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About MillvilleWx

  • Birthday 07/18/1990

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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD

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  1. F+ It's not the worst winter I've ever experienced, but it certainly wasn't enough to relieve it from mediocrity.
  2. HRRR shows you flipping around 2z, so not too long at this point. Good luck! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. With this type of setup, there could easily be some surprises. I hope you nailed by this. This has N MD written all over it with just a slight east adjustment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. It's basically almost the same last 3 runs. In fact, 20z is a bit quicker on the changeover over parts of CMD with the changeover. Models have this setup pinned. It's basically a matter of banding. Wouldn't expect much outside the typical areas, like you said, but it's not trending less impressive. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  5. I know and that's something to keep an eye on both for winter and severe weather purposes. Where I forecast for, looking closely at the pattern progression to see what kind of severe potential we have at some of our sites. I'll be watching intently.
  6. Just checked the previous H5 handling on the Euro, it's night and day haha. That's a pretty remarkable run right there. It's too bad that isn't on the doorstep instead of Day 8-9. Hey, we've had snow that late recently. Why not a second time eh?
  7. You should see the long range around the weekend of the 25th through 27th on the Euro. Anomalous H5 low tracking across the country with 1041 HP pressing in from Quebec. Areas to our north into PA get pummeled and we end up transitioning to snow as well as the cold wedge bleeds south east of the Blue Ridge. The SE Ridge pumping the heights ahead of the disturbance basically kill any chance of a full snow event this way until the upper low is under us, but areas around I-80 get hit hard. You think Binghamton can share some of that snow?
  8. Taking a look a bit more in depth at the high res guidance this afternoon, 12z 3km NAM is doing the best with the handling of the 2m temp forecast, but maybe a touch too low still. HRRR is not initializing well at all and is running too cold for areas to the north of I-70 based on current obs. That being said, the 3km NAM and HRRR are representative of the radar so far and have been handling the setup well. 3km NAM and HRRR, despite the temp differences, have similar timing to the transition period occurring around 12-1am for our northern tier down to around 4-5am for the DC Metro. The system should produce a nice area convection on the east side of the Blue Ridge in a few hours with a band of showers/storms likely heading east across Northern and Central VA. So far, models are doing a decent job with the convection and precip placement, but a little too aggressive with the cold air. Could be something to watch later and see if they trend back on the transition from rain to snow.
  9. Euro in agreement that areas west of 83 will be the spots to be for this one, but of course banding prediction is tough to get this far out. HRRR is insistent on Adams county in the southern tier getting hit decent overnight with start time around 9-10pm. I like South Mountain as the top spot. Could sneak with 3-5" if the setup comes to fruition.
  10. Agreed. Someone in the northern tier will see a sneaky few inches I'm thinking. I like losetoa/psu/High Stakes for the best spots to get those totals. Wouldn't be shocking though if areas toward Frederick down into NW Moco get a couple inches as well pending banding. It'll be a nice event. Might actually wake up for it since I have work in the AM anyway lol
  11. I'll give you a hand Bob. Here you go @psuhoffman 6z Sun 12z Sun Total Precip from event (Rain/Snow) Most falls between 3-15z
  12. Pretty decent look for the area west 83 for some snow this evening. The area of best impact is currently portrayed from west of HBG down into Adams and Franklin counties with a max running along South Mountain thanks to orographic enhancement and longer period of snowfall. Below is a sounding I pulled around Cashtown's area overnight, right when the HRRR showed a flip to snow. Decent omega within the the sounding and lapse rates conducive for weak convection shown by the HRRR at that time, so snow would be moderate to heavy in terms of rates. As Matt said earlier, inverted troughs are tough to pinpoint where the best impact would be confined, but high resolution guidance is persistent in its placement of the heaviest echoes and handling of the upper pattern. 3km NAM and HRRR are in fairly good agreement at this time, so that's a nice set of guidance in tandem as we head into the short term. Have to keep an eye on any changes later this afternoon and evening to see if the axis shifts further to the east/west.
  13. I think there will be some conversational flakes in the air, especially Saturday night into Sunday. The perfect time to enjoy a Stella . And this is to you or whoever would be interested in a get together, feel free to PM me contact details (Phone and email) whenever and we can talk about what to plan. I'd love a gathering at a baseball game as Canderson suggested, or if someone has a nice backyard and BBQ area, we could go all out there as well. I'm out on that deal since I have no yard, but I will gladly drive all the way to wherever to meet up with everyone. It would be a blast!!
  14. If only this was January. This pack would stick around for a crazy long time. As soon as this thaws, I want to start discussing a meet up Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  15. Hey all, stopping in to say congrats to those of you who cashed in on the snowfall. This was a very impressive system to watch unfold. The banding structures with the system were wild and it's a shame we couldn't stay all snow in the southern tier, but the warm intrusion was a tough pill to swallow. Idk if anyone here is interested in learning more about flake structures and conditions warranted for certain types of snow (Since everyone here had a different snow type from south to north), but I found a really nice scholarly article about it. Thought I'd share! https://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/publist/rpp5_4_R03.pdf