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About MillvilleWx

  • Birthday 07/18/1990

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Germantown, MD

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  1. Just a heads up to hasn't seen yet, but COD just put out a new DC Region for the GOES-16 and it's pretty amazing. Enjoy!! http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=dcarea-02-24-1
  2. Hope everyone enjoyed the drought busting rain we just had. Nothing like having the entire office staring at your work area during a Tornado warning. Felt like I was a gerbil in a cage being watched lol. All good down here thankfully. Tornadoes confirmed to my SE into D.C. area though. Fun stuff. Just checking in to remind anyone that wants to attend a get together this spring/summer to PM me contact info like email so we can start a chain email to plan something out. I have a few people so far and would love to have at least 5 to get the ball rolling. Looks like weather will warm back up by next week with ridging sliding east with pretty significant height rises into the 570+ dm for many. Looking forward to it! Thanks everyone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. Washer and dryers are brutal to change out because there always seems to be a water issue along the line. My girlfriends family got a new washer/dryer set last year and they both came out fine and nothing leaked from wall, but water in the line from washer spilled everywhere when they went to move it. It must have been sitting in the water compartment of washer and it was disgusting too. Washer was like 12-13 years old. Smelled and got all over the wash room and into dining room connection. Needless to say, I don't ever look forward to doing that. Hopefully Plummer can fix the issue quickly. Good luck getting it all taken care of! It'll be worth it once you have a nice, efficient system. Just a PITA to switch out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. This is correct. Convective temp is not as useful in places that typically don't have a deep moist environment, but it is useful in combination with certain synoptic features such as Dry Lines, surface troughs and positioning within deep mean trough or upper low. Also, extreme heat can be useful for exceeding convective temp as is the case forecasting in the Desert SW, particularly during monsoon season. Orographic elements such as mountains can aid in differential heating over areas of the country. One example is West Texas and SE AZ where I forecast. There are many times the starting elevation is above any cap being shown by a local sounding, so convective temp is naturally lower and doesn't take as much for stuff to billow up and go. If you ever wonder why the SW US gets creamed with thunderstorms and crazy lightning during Monsoon season, convective temp is typically lower due to little or no cap, intense heating under Western Ridge and monsoonal trough nearby. By the afternoon, everything goes boom and you get intense convection over the Sonora/Huachuca's/Sierra Madre plateau for many hours. Pending depth of the regional moisture layer will determine severity of convection with tropical moisture flux from systems off Pacific leading to high potential for flooding, sometimes historic depending on the training aspect of the moisture field. Florida is also a good example due to the deep maritime air mass, especially in warm season combined with sea/land breeze interaction. Ever wonder why it rains all the time in Florida in the summer? Deep moisture, mesoscale forcing from sea breeze, sometimes convergence of both Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze as well as little to no cap all day with intense differential heating over a land mass. The result, storms go boom. These are just examples I deal with on a daily. It can be both fun when you watch it go and see the span of lightning, and it can be very challenging at times since what I forecast for certainly doesn't want to have to deal with area convection. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  5. Alright everyone. I think the time has come to give up the ghost on the winter season as long range prospects are looking frail at any attempt at wintery precip sans some higher elevations in N PA possibly in the future. As we draw to a close, it's always fun to talk to you all and get to know one another over time, as well as talking and geeking out about something like Winter Weather. Before we call it a season and sign off completely into the doldrums of summer, I've engaged the idea of having a get together this spring/summer to meet and greet each other, tell stories and have a great time while putting faces to names (Although some of you have already done so). The prospects of a meet up can occur in a wide variety of places and weekends will be the likely time frame of a get together due to work. I know I would need to know in advance due to my shift work and working weekends fairly often, so would like to get the talk started earlier. As of now, I have the contact info of one person from the sub forum sent to me via PM. I will gladly take the role in the organizer and run ideas by anyone willing to host or someone who may have connections to a spot to meet up, or just have a good idea of where to hold an event. I'm open to anything. If you are interested, send me a PM with email/cell or any good means of contact for the off season and we can get something planned out over the coming weeks/month. I know BBQ has come up in the discussion as well as a baseball game and I'm down with any of those ideas. I know I will likely have to travel the farthest for any event, but I will travel anywhere and have connections with people in the entire state I could stay at overnight one night if need be. I look forward to hearing for many of you and really want to meet everyone in person. There's nothing like a bunch of weather nuts in the same place. Only downside is, it will probably rain whenever we have it because we are weather people and that's just how it works lol.
  6. Incredible weather in Bethany. Flirting with 75 right now away from water. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  7. F+ It's not the worst winter I've ever experienced, but it certainly wasn't enough to relieve it from mediocrity.
  8. HRRR shows you flipping around 2z, so not too long at this point. Good luck! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  9. With this type of setup, there could easily be some surprises. I hope you nailed by this. This has N MD written all over it with just a slight east adjustment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  10. It's basically almost the same last 3 runs. In fact, 20z is a bit quicker on the changeover over parts of CMD with the changeover. Models have this setup pinned. It's basically a matter of banding. Wouldn't expect much outside the typical areas, like you said, but it's not trending less impressive. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  11. I know and that's something to keep an eye on both for winter and severe weather purposes. Where I forecast for, looking closely at the pattern progression to see what kind of severe potential we have at some of our sites. I'll be watching intently.
  12. Just checked the previous H5 handling on the Euro, it's night and day haha. That's a pretty remarkable run right there. It's too bad that isn't on the doorstep instead of Day 8-9. Hey, we've had snow that late recently. Why not a second time eh?
  13. You should see the long range around the weekend of the 25th through 27th on the Euro. Anomalous H5 low tracking across the country with 1041 HP pressing in from Quebec. Areas to our north into PA get pummeled and we end up transitioning to snow as well as the cold wedge bleeds south east of the Blue Ridge. The SE Ridge pumping the heights ahead of the disturbance basically kill any chance of a full snow event this way until the upper low is under us, but areas around I-80 get hit hard. You think Binghamton can share some of that snow?
  14. Taking a look a bit more in depth at the high res guidance this afternoon, 12z 3km NAM is doing the best with the handling of the 2m temp forecast, but maybe a touch too low still. HRRR is not initializing well at all and is running too cold for areas to the north of I-70 based on current obs. That being said, the 3km NAM and HRRR are representative of the radar so far and have been handling the setup well. 3km NAM and HRRR, despite the temp differences, have similar timing to the transition period occurring around 12-1am for our northern tier down to around 4-5am for the DC Metro. The system should produce a nice area convection on the east side of the Blue Ridge in a few hours with a band of showers/storms likely heading east across Northern and Central VA. So far, models are doing a decent job with the convection and precip placement, but a little too aggressive with the cold air. Could be something to watch later and see if they trend back on the transition from rain to snow.
  15. Euro in agreement that areas west of 83 will be the spots to be for this one, but of course banding prediction is tough to get this far out. HRRR is insistent on Adams county in the southern tier getting hit decent overnight with start time around 9-10pm. I like South Mountain as the top spot. Could sneak with 3-5" if the setup comes to fruition.