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About MillvilleWx

  • Birthday 07/18/1990

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    Laytonsville, MD

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  1. Safe travels. Just arrived back in El Paso. 77F here with clear skies. Life a bit different down here lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  2. I know I’m late to party over here (Been traveling and giving training sessions for work), but I just read Atomix post and had to excuse myself outside a diner I’m having breakfast at. That was just loltastic. As for weather, thinking we’ll see flakes in parts of the state around Thanksgiving time frame. More mood stuff than formidable accumulation. I’m still very interested in what’s down the line in December. The PAC is likely the key component to watch next few weeks. If we see a flip to more -epo/+pna look beginning in early Dec, chances are the long wave pattern would yield a few opportunities downstream for us to see some short waves dip down into low latitudes East of Mississippi. Blocking is subject to variability, and I mentioned in my forecast here a few weeks ago I thought blocking would occur, but remain more transient than what we strive for. I could be wrong, but historically, it’s tough to get a long standing ridge over the top. Very seldom has it happened in the past 10 years. Going with continuity there. Either way, I see us tracking more than just pattern changes next month. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  3. I still like the LR pattern past Thanksgiving. I’m sticking to it. Optomistic we track one or two winter events next month. If I’m wrong, y’all can blame me Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. Heading out west now myself for work. Only difference is, absolutely no snow right now where I’m heading haha. Wall to wall 75-80 temps and sunshine. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  5. Yup. This is being advertised by both the GEFS and EPS for the extended beyond Thanksgiving. Basically it's the pattern potentially reloading as we break into December. The Weeklies were actually suggesting this relaxation as well, then the arctic opens up and the flood gates pour back east by early-mid December. If that were to occur, you're talking about getting towards good climo for many areas in the east, and really look solid for the Lakes. I still think we'll see transient cold shots at times for your latitude, but nothing substantial until after the aforementioned time frame. I'm thinking a white Christmas is very likely for everyone in the sub-forum and even into areas further downwind. Me on the other hand lives in do or die land where if we don't get systems to bomb to our south or get some kind of crazy snow squall action, it'll be another brown Christmas. I've seen a grand total of 2 "white" Christmas and both were due to snow falling previous days. Only once have I seen flakes on Christmas Day, but it melted on contact. In fact, seen snow 3 times on Thanksgiving lol
  6. No problem. I like short term forecasts and this one is pretty interesting.
  7. What a great morning am I right? Let's bring in this kind of high in late December and January with something attacking a few days later
  8. Yeah. I think the precip field weakens once you get above I-80. I like where MAG sits with this one and areas like Altoona and Johnstown to State College. Harrisburg is on the fence. Not a whole lot of accumulating precip, but could be a little slick in CPA down to MD line if everything falls right.
  9. Yeah, it's not a prolific precip maker, but snow is snow lol. Especially early in the season. Plus, even light ZR is worthy of discussion.
  10. Shortwave looks to dive southeast from the Northern Plains with vort max rotating through the area overnight Sunday into Monday. The question will be about timing of the feature and the cold lingering over the state from the residual high pressure left behind our powerful surface ridge today. Right now, it is extremely borderline and thermal profiles are nestled at around +1C to -1C at 850 and 925mb. The further north you go away from say Rt 30, the better chance you would have at seeing frozen precip, or if you're parked above 1100'. The Nam Nest is the coldest of the models so far with the global's only giving love to those north of MDT at this point. Take a look at how close it is just using the Nam Nest on Bufkit. The first profile is out of HGR (Hagerstown), the second is out of MDT and the 3rd is out of UNV. The further north you go, the slightly better the profile looks, which would make all the difference in the world. The shortwave looks fairly solid based on models at H5, so there could be some surprises for a few people if it holds this look. Hagerstown This is the only hour the model has snow at Hagerstown, but the thermal profile is literally teetering on the edge, but just cold enough above the surface. Rest is just some rain at a cold 33F. Harrisburg This is Harrisburg's best look during the system. It's a bit colder than HGR, thus a better sig for some flakes. The model prints a few hours of snow and a few hours of ZR during the system before it exits and temps warm up above freezing. Once the heavier precip funnels overhead, the dew point depression drops temp below freezing and we see a change to frozen for a time Monday morning. Small warm nose at 925 could play a role in the precip type if it came to this, but more moderate precip could overcome this. State College Then there's the best looking thermal profile in State College where it shows a few hours of snow with ZR on front and back before ending. It's not a bad look, and one that could honestly trend better if the high pressure is a bit slower to move out, which would help trend things a bit colder and move the freezing line a touch south.
  11. I've found that the Nam Nest and Euro are the go to when it comes to temps inside 36 hours, even with my forecasts out west into Texas and the Desert SW. HRRR tends to overdue radiational cooling events, but it is pretty solid inside 8 hours when it comes to frontal boundaries. Forecasting the last 2.5 years at my job really opened my eyes to some of the intricacies in temp forecasting with high res guidance. At long leads beyond 36 hours, Euro is my go model to with blend of MOS and taking into account the setup. 20 degrees at work and 16 back home. Brrrr
  12. Lol. I know. I'm not talking so much short term compared to long term prospects Thanksgiving and beyond. I'm not looking for white beforehand. November though did knock me back a few pegs. Thanks for the help
  13. My cautious optimism is turning more and more into full blown optimism. Someone needs to remind me that I live in the Mid Atlantic.
  14. Not necessarily. There will be a "warmish" period prior to Thanksgiving, but it looks like the bottom drops out sometime Thanksgiving week as trough dumps east and strong Canadian HP motions back into the CONUS. This depiction is mid month after the cold shot. The upper level pattern signals surface ridging off along and off the SE coast, so we get fed with the backside of the high. Thus, warmer than normal temps heading into weekend prior to Thanksgiving. You can see with the height pattern, there's a more zonal regime setup, so you're not going to muster any storms to carve a trough at any point and the pattern stays stagnant for a time. Now as we head into Thanksgiving week, the trough off the coast of BC moves east and we begin to carve a trough over the Northern Plains and dumps into the east. Height rises out west signal the precursor to the forecasted +PNA setup for the end of the month, meaning trough axis settling into the east. NAO pattern will be more blocky, thus pattern will not move quickly and cold could in theory stick around longer. This is what I was referring to for the GL region end of the month into December. A more pronounced cold air pattern across the warm lakes should set off the LES machine in the long term. If we can get a powerful shortwave trough to traverse the area late November into December, could see a pretty decent event unfold. Tonight's Euro was signaling something like that at the end of it's run. Check out the heights over the lakes for hour 240!! That's a LES maker if I've ever seen one. But you can see the general theme from a smoothed mean like the EPS and the operational Euro with the rising height pattern out West and deeper trough cutting into the East. And if this shot of the high latitudes doesn't get you excited for what's to come, nothing will. I'd be getting ready for some cold and snow if I lived in the snow belt.
  15. I wouldn’t take them as gospel for sure, but the way the high latitudes are sorting themselves out now means good trends down the road. The AO flip to negative with blocking will almost assuredly provide the rest of the month to be pretty solid for the GL area. Beyond that, it gets muddier obviously, but as long as we see large H’s over the pole and not large L’s, we will be in good shape. All the indices we want to look favorable are trending favorable. Haven’t seen that in like 6 years lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk