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    • SPC - Talk about walking it back. That's a massive decrease. Good for us, though.

      Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

    • Fairly large 10% tornado area on the new outlook.
    • Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING TO THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail are forecast on Thursday over parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An upper low crossing eastern Kansas early in the period is forecast to accelerate eastward across Missouri and into the Midwest through the period -- as a vigorous short-wave over the Pacific Northwest at the start of the period digs southeastward with time, evolving into a deepening closed low with time and reaching the Arizona/Utah border region by the end of the period. As the eastern upper low is kicked eastward by the digging western system, short-wave troughing -- within broader cyclonic flow surrounding the low -- will move quickly eastward out of the southern Plains and across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coastal states. This will facilitate a rather rapid eastward advance of a surface cold front across the southeast quarter of the country. This front -- trailing southward from a parent low moving across the Ohio Valley states through the afternoon and evening -- should extend from the southern Appalachians to the Florida Panhandle vicinity by 31/12z. ...The Midwest south to the Gulf Coast, and the Mississippi Valley east to the Appalachians... A very complex weather scenario continues to unfold -- complicated largely by ongoing showers and locally strong to severe storms now affecting the middle and lower Mississippi Valley area. Models suggest that much of this convection will be contained within two distinct clusters at the start of the period -- one crossing the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley area, and a second crossing southern and eastern Mississippi/eastern Louisiana. The Ohio Valley convection is forecast to gradually weaken through the morning hours, while the southern cluster of convection may persist -- in a locally severe manner -- across the central Gulf coastal region. This convection and associated cloud cover continues to cast uncertainty with respect to areas of potentially greater insolation and thus destabilization, but it appears that at least modest instability will evolve along and ahead of the advancing cold front -- which should extend southward from a western Illinois surface low roughly along the Mississippi River around midday. With mixed-layer CAPE values likely reaching 500 to 1500 J/kg by early afternoon in the wake of prior convection, new storm development should begin. Organization of the storms will be augmented by strong lower- and middle-tropospheric south-southwesterly flow, and though turning with height will remain limited in most areas, speed shear suggests both rotating storms and small-scale bowing segments will evolve with time. Along with potential for hail, damaging winds are expected, and a few tornadoes will be possible as well -- particularly over the lower Ohio Valley area where a more southeasterly component to the surface flow should exist ahead of the low and in the vicinity of the warm front. Convection may organize into a broken band, spreading eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf coastal states through the afternoon and evening, along with attendant severe potential. With areas of most concentrated risk difficult to discern, a broad ENH/level 3 risk area is being included, with slight/level 2 risk being expanded eastward at this time -- both across the mid Ohio Valley along the mid-level low track, as well as across the southern Appalachians region as a rapidly advancing short-wave trough fosters increasing ascent through the evening and overnight hours.
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