Midwest getting waterboarded by yet ANOTHER MASSIVE RAINSTORM!!!!
I am not surprised.
We will get a weak cold front Sat night. We will be damned lucky to get a nanometer of rain from it, then next week will be seasonable and DRY.
The Midwest will see much much above normal rainfall, then much much above normal snowfall.
This is to be expected from a weak La Nina. We of course, will average drier than usual. I will cry for a little rain but will be denied over and over and over again.
I'm not extremely optimistic for surface based storms or a severe threat this far north, but can't help but get a bit excited about the potential for some training storms on the nose of the very strong LLJ. With that said, models often seem to underdo the temps in the warm sector during the cold season when there's strong WAA, and some of the shorter range guidance suggests surface based instability and much less of an inversion as far north as I-70 or so in IN and OH, so it wouldn't surprise me if some areas see some damaging winds with any storms into central and southern IN and OH. The HRRR also shows some modest rotating storms north of the warm front, so if the mid-level lapse rates aren't completely overturned the threat for some marginal hail could be there a little farther north...though I'm not extremely impressed looking at some of the forecast soundings north of the warm front.
Same with MA/NY/CT. We are by far the largest state east of the Rockies besides Florida that isn't had one. The biggest shock on that map though is Colorado, though the Windsor tornado in 2008 would have fit if it had hit anything but it was mostly over rural areas, thankfully because that was a monster.