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Decent area of gales along the coast for a surfers delight without any tropical influence. Not every year we see a nearly 4 SD NAO drop in late July.            

I would agree. I don't see any guidance that looks particularly robust with regards to a severe threat. Even the heavy rain threat seems a bit north on latest guidance IMO. 

Looks like there's potential for severe weather on Thursday and Friday. Friday seems to have the biggest potential for a greater threat. Thursday Friday The wording from the SPC for Friday is interesting... ...Mid South and Southeast to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast... While a large degree of uncertainty exists with respect to timing/location, evolution of severe convection is expected across a rather broad area of the southern and eastern U.S. Friday ahead of the advancing cold front and associated/digging upper system. As enhanced/diffluent flow aloft spreads across the area ahead of the upper system, a favorable kinematic environment for organized/fast-moving bands of storms will exist. The main questions at this time revolve around timing of synoptic features, and evolution of prior -- and ongoing -- convection, and related effects on heating/destabilization potential. Given these questions, a broad 15%/slight risk area is being included across what appears to be the zone of greatest risk at this point, with later adjustments to area and risk level likely to be required. Along with risk across portions of the Mid Atlantic area ahead of the anticipated track of the main vort max, the broad zone of enhanced/diffluent northwest flow aloft across a large portion of the southeast U.S. would also support potential for rather widespread damaging wind risk with multiple, upscale-growing bands of storms through the afternoon and evening hours.