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Dark Star

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About Dark Star

  • Birthday 07/08/1959

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  1. 5.2" final here in Garwood NJ, Central Union County.
  2. 4.0" as of 5:00 PM in Garwood NJ (Central Union County). Snowing lightly.
  3. I think the Storm Tracking category by Sacrus shows this well. To the west is a dark line that progresses east and begins to tilt NW to SE. If this phases correctly, it should pull it all back in over the NE, or is this just wishful thinking.
  4. One Nextrad radar showed some virga over us a little earlier.
  5. I feel bad for the people who lost everything during Irma, but it could have been far worse if it went up the eastern coast. I knew the storm surge would not be nearly as bad as predicted. Correct me if I am wrong, but the worst hurricane surges occur just to the NE of the eye. In this case, there was no water, only land to the NE of the eye. The Keys and extreme SE Florida got wicked surge, fer sure. Then, the hurricane sucked in air over Florida, and created a large dry slot. I assume the NHC knew this? Certainly TWC was unaware.
  6. As you are driving north, the Phillips 66 (Bayway) Refinery is on the left, while the PSEG power plant is on the right. The PSEG power plant has a large cooling tower system which sends up a large plume of moisture. Sometimes I see this swirling. On the left side is the refinery. I haven't noticed anything noteworthy there, except when they have their flames on, burning gases.
  7. What day did this occur and what time? What were the weather conditions for the day? I have a good view of the area from where I work. I have never witnessed such a phenomenon (except a true waterspout back in 2006).
  8. It was Jeff Berardelli who used to say, "The devil is in the details". In hindsight, there should be some indication in the models (or interpretation) that indicate what was truly going to occur in each storm. The trick is to know which indicator(s) is/are correct, which is the true test of a meteorologist (one reason I am not a professional forecaster anymore). Oddly, amongst the general media forecasts, not too many were hedging on this one. I swallowed the hype, hoping for the best, even though I figured my area would get about 6" snow before a changeover to sleet, and then hopefully back to snow. If you looked at the water vapor loop early Monday, it was indicating that the storm would take a perfect track. By Monday afternoon, as the storm was beginning to phase, the water vapor suggested the track would be tight to the coast. I'm sure lots of signs were ignored. I don't think the NWS forecasts should appear to be motivated other than to provide the best forecast for the public (who pay the bills).
  9. Thanks for the link. Always grinds my gears when Forecasters cannot admit they were wrong. I've been wrong too often, although by Monday at 3 PM I knew some sleet was going to mix in, I just didn't know how much. I live in Garwood and I never bothered measuring, although we couldn't have gotten any more than 6". Not sure how a trained spotter in Elizabeth reported 9".
  10. You are right, the bust was March 2001. Major league. You don't get a bigger bust that that. All forecasters were stubbornly persistent, except Alan Kasper.
  11. Worst bust since January 5, 2001? At least this forecast was revised as early as last night. In 2001 forecasters were still calling for the snow storm even thought it had already passed! I love snow, hate heat, but sigh, bring on Spring. Too painful, even though I figured as early as yesterday afternoon that sleet was going to mix in, hopeful that I was wrong. Didn't measure, didn't watch the storm, stayed in bed until 9:30 AM when I heard pinging as early as 7:15 AM.
  12. Roads are still good.
  13. I think I would be happy with 44". No doubt they under measured NYC. With the drifts, how in the world could you establish the mean? That had to be NYC's deepest snow storm. Despite knowing how hard it is to snow around here (having witnessed 7 decades of weather) I wonder how we haven't gotten a 40 incher in NYC metro at least once or twice over the last 50 years.
  14. Temperature dropped 6 degrees in about 20 minutes from Garwood to Linden at 7 AM. Some snow sticking to the grass. Streets wet. Temp now 32 degrees F. Can't foresee any accumulation on the main roads, except some slush, even with the temperature dropping. Then again....
  15. Some light freezing rain in Garwood NJ (Union County). Only freezing on raised surfaces, roads are fine. Only a few miles north in Union, NJ, it was sleet, snow, and a bit of freezing rain. Forecast seems dead on.