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Dark Star

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About Dark Star

  • Birthday 07/08/1959

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  1. Snow/Slop Storm 2/17-18 Obs

    2.75" Snow here in beautiful Garwood, central Union County NJ
  2. However the two week forecast is warmer than normal, not leaving much time left. Of course that could change...
  3. Tsunami Warning for New York, New York??

    I also remember that programming. Hard to say how much was hype and how much was fact. Also difficult to predict the intensity of a tsunami along the coastal US Atlantic, since the continental shelf extends out pretty far, as opposed to the Pacific Coast, including Hawaii.
  4. I thought for sure we would get something here in Union County, but I was wrong (again).
  5. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    This past Tuesday, I ventured to say that the storm would be a near miss for central Union county in NJ, but I was wrong. The trough deepened faster than it was physically showing and the precip shield formed closer to the coast than modeled. Managed 5.0" of snow in Garwood, with a few gusts to near 40 mph. Not quite hurricane strength, but I didn't doubt that could happen on the east end of Long Island. The storm followed the NAM, which most of us were watching fairly well. Most professional forecasts seemed in the ballpark. I would probably get it wrong again, even with having "learned" from this one. One slight wobble east or west could have made significant differences.
  6. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    4.7" of fluff here in Garwood NJ (central union county).
  7. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Very complex. Yesterday, it didn't appear that the trough would dig as rapidly as it did in such a short time. Now, the water vapor loop is showing the trough tilting negatively, with momentum carrying it to at least southern Virginia. You would need the momentum to continue to bring significant snow westward. The latest Euro was showing that. Whether or not that happens I could not say. At least the NWS is actually forecasting possible amounts at this time.
  8. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Jeff Beradelli, a meteorologist who used to post on these forums used to say, "The devil is in the details". With that being said, it seems the general consensus is that the longer range models were not picking this system up well. Perhaps we would need to throw that information out and only go with the present vorticity maps and perhaps 12-24 hours forecasat and extrapolate the rest? Take a look at the present water vapor loops. Right now, the flow has all the southern moisture being sucked out to sea. Obviously the trough will bend within the next 12-48 hours, but how much? The water vapor shows the incoming energy quite well, but several phases need to take place, pretty quickly. The high pressure is south and west of our area, which is not typical of an east coast snow storm. At this point, I would forecast a near miss, despite the model trends (I've been wrong too often). I'm sure we will all learn something from this storm.
  9. January 2018 Model Discussion Thread

    Surface winds are harder to forecast than precipitation. Even modeled well, its hard to translate the upper level velocity to the surface. If the storm takes the easterly track, you would most likely not notice the wind much greater than it has been the past two days, and temperatures are expected to be near 30 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will most likely be more noticeable once the center has passed to our north, ushering in much colder air.
  10. December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

    5.2" final here in Garwood NJ, Central Union County.
  11. December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

    4.0" as of 5:00 PM in Garwood NJ (Central Union County). Snowing lightly.
  12. December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?

    I think the Storm Tracking category by Sacrus shows this well. To the west is a dark line that progresses east and begins to tilt NW to SE. If this phases correctly, it should pull it all back in over the NE, or is this just wishful thinking.
  13. December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

    One Nextrad radar showed some virga over us a little earlier.
  14. Summer 2017 Banter Thread

    I feel bad for the people who lost everything during Irma, but it could have been far worse if it went up the eastern coast. I knew the storm surge would not be nearly as bad as predicted. Correct me if I am wrong, but the worst hurricane surges occur just to the NE of the eye. In this case, there was no water, only land to the NE of the eye. The Keys and extreme SE Florida got wicked surge, fer sure. Then, the hurricane sucked in air over Florida, and created a large dry slot. I assume the NHC knew this? Certainly TWC was unaware.
  15. As you are driving north, the Phillips 66 (Bayway) Refinery is on the left, while the PSEG power plant is on the right. The PSEG power plant has a large cooling tower system which sends up a large plume of moisture. Sometimes I see this swirling. On the left side is the refinery. I haven't noticed anything noteworthy there, except when they have their flames on, burning gases.