wdrag

Early but encouraged that the 12z/20 GGEM has come back... whether that's correct I don't know, but I think it's correct. As noted earlier in the thread... the 12z/20 UK is on board big time, but for the UK, thats past 96 hours...not so reliable and just previous-now, the 12z/20 EC is back where it was and so... waiting it out. Will comment around 4P but I'm encouraged we continue on track for a widespread wintry event. Thank you to the 12z/20 GGEM, EC and UK op's. Unsure what is going on with the GFS the past two cycles and no para to check. Have to move on with the NAEFS and EPS as best we can. Won't tidy up the topic til tomorrow morning but everything originated looks good to me. Also, later today, or tomorrow morning I will present information on the EC and how it handles snow accumulation. Not so cut and dried. Later, Walt

Added CoCORAHS final for today's obs, generally prior to 8AM... but a few may have incorporated data after 8A. Planning a two day graphic summary wrap tomorrow.

The band coming NNJ and NW CT at 1035AM is pretty good snowfall for a few minutes. PHI: Wantage NJ - this part: another 0.1" in our 10AM 1/4SM SW+. Gust was only 28MPH at 1004AM The first tenth had melted by 930A. pavements just wet with the 10AM squall.

Good thing we can enjoy some of the snow this morning: 06z/20 GEFS is a disaster... relatively dry through much of Jan. Have my doubts but it's just another set of options and imo, needs to be treated with consideration but not gospel. Once I see the GEPS dump this threaded event, then I'm convinced. Think it's all based on the backing wind at 500MB (short wave strength) coming through NyS-PA-LI 15-26th. If predominantly 270 or 280... not good. All I can do is monitor and accept the future trends.

CP OBS since 707A. KNYC 201251Z AUTO VRB03KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC080 01/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 SLP116 P0002 T00061011 $ KNYC 201249Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC080 01/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0002 $ KNYC 201247Z AUTO 23004KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC080 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0002 $ KNYC 201234Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW007 OVC013 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0001 T00061017 $ KNYC 201227Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN VV014 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0001 T00061022 $ KNYC 201215Z AUTO VRB03KT 1SM -SN OVC021 01/M03 A2991 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0000 T00111033 $ KNYC 201207Z AUTO 26007KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC029 02/M04 A2991 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0000 T00171039 $

CoCoRAHS early reports of accums as of about 745A. Will update at 10A.

Wantage NJ 4 św 445A-645A 0.1" roads salted to Branchville. was a slippery exit out of the driveway at 620A. 29t this writing. Exit 8 Mt Cobb PA just east of Scranton at least 1/2" early this morning. Band of snow showers ne PA/se NYS approaching Scranton at 755A should cross at least the N and W suburbs of NYC between 845A-1045A. That probably is into NYC around 10A and their last good chance for measurable at CP today.

fwiw and definitely not a focus for me in this conversation. I think we need to get through this morning, and 25th-26th... but fwiw... a clipper event or another w-e east event is modeled by some of the ENS sometime between the 28th-30th. Not big but just another chance. How much is realized these next 10 days??

No change for me on this mornings event.. now in progress. S-/S-- in Wantage..tinge of white on the ground since sometime just before 5A. mPING has flurries to just outside NYC at 545A. IF NYC is to measure, my guess is primary time as listed above in previous post... could melt on the CP snowboard, esp if no check between 7A-1P. NAM3K centers NYC max chance on the front end around 8A. That's the general snow band. Snow showers possible til 2PM NYC but chances are NYC won't measure on the snow showers, while the suburbs do. Enjoy whatever you get. Trace here in this part of Wantage NJ 545A.

Good morning- It's Wednesday Jan 20 - 25th-26th: 00z/20 ENS a bit further south, but main change in my view...I90 north is definitely drying. I see the 06z/20 GFS op gave up on everything 25th on MD northward... yikes-i don't think that is going to be correct? Meanwhile: NAEFS continues pretty fast on the 25th onset and 0.4 up to I84 with variability. Let's say this is a bit too high... I still think we're looking at .1 to .2 to I84 and .2 to .4 along and s of I80 in our forum with ice involved along I95 and potentially a period of rain parts of LI, NJ coast. All dependent on whether the flow turns wsw at 500 per the GEFS over LI or never backs to more than 280 (EC op). Since we're still at D5-6..I'm leaning NAEFS with contributions from the EPS/GEFS and 2" up to I84 and potentially a swath of 3-4" near ice change zone in NJ. I'm staying with the original topic til I'm sure it's south. NAEFS (GEPS) will have to back off. Right now, I've no certainty of that. Will check back late afternoon. Have a day.

I thought EC @ EPS included sleet as snow?? Thanks for the note. Walt

Hi... Why does my EPS mean snowfall data differ? Is it the res? Os my our error? EPS I'm looking at is several inches less. I just need to know where to access the correct model guidance. Thanks, Walt

Tomorrow morning should be a bit of fun around here... am hoping NYC can measure by 7A. If it's after 7A, then the 1P may not catch the possible 0.1" dusting of snow. Unsure how this turns out but should be bit active with dustings of snow up to 3/4" in our forum (even in some of the boroughs and LI) between 3AM and Noon with a couple straggler snow showers in the afternoon. This after two successive days of afternoon flurries in the forum per mPing.

ALL: no question a bit southward trend past 12 hours... kind of early throwing in the towel. NAEFS and WPC still has qpf and so am staying with the topic as posted and not saying anything different til I know for sure this is south with primary advisory threat south of I80. fwiw... and I won't post 16z ish/19 graphics here, because basically they repeat the posted topic graphics from earlier today... WPC is unwavering on 1/4" qpf just n of I80 and 1/4" frozen probs...actually has 30+% immediate w NYC suburbs now. Today is 1/19 the event is still 6-7 days away. I am riding this out...there will still be differences. Main difference I see that needs resolution...how much westerly flow at 500 MB across LI, vs the WNW flow of the EPS. Hang in there.

Agreed... nice lapse rate post to demo the potential. I do not think we can say no problem. IF this occurs as anticipated. roads will not be treated during the heavier of whatever Inauguration morning commute, but I'm pretty sure slippery spots will develop, un beknownst to some of our faster drivers from PA to NYC. Definitely a potential SPS event.