wdrag

imo... human element may need to be removed except first 12 hours. Certainly think that beyond 2 days where I think hazard announcements are not even outlined beyond the AFD. AFD does not count for me as public notice. I wish it did but need to translate to actionable listening via products. Seems to me GFS and AI and EC modeling is VERY good through D6 ish. Many dont care to act on anything, or at least beyond 2 pr 3 days. Toooo many doubters os non reliable resources of info. That's freedom. I can live with it.

79 in Wantage NJ at 316PM..been up to 80.4. That's pretty big for us here in the hills. I think you'll see current obs continue and making better use of already available platforms. I've wondered aloud about the future of forecasting since the 20teens. Already modeling is so so good... r/s lines are next to improve. It does not surprise that some of the writing has been on the wall for a while I can think of areas where NWS can minimize and areas where it needs to step up. My minor words of wisdom have not been adopted since my 2018 departure. No problem. I am grateful to be alive etc.

Forecasting will probably revert temporarily to whatever model blend you can use, plus NBM with very little change from the downsized offices. Weather forecasting in 2030? Possibly automated-AI. My good times forecasting have come and gone.

I hope you all are aware that websites we access are slowly decreasing. RCC's stopped today. This, because of government funding reduction.

Wantage NJ at 740' elevation 1" at 4A with moderate snow, all surfaces covered. Going to be some power problems when high terrain above 1000 feet gets to 5 or 6" by 9AM. I added at 439A. Modeling suggests that snow on the grass wont completely melt til late Sunday afternoon in nw NJ...all elevations. Where 6" might not happen to melt til Monday afternoon.

No thread at this time but Thunder snow possible for NNJ as previous flash density shows. My guess is that parts of the 5 boroughs will see wet snow, sleet or small hail tomorrow morning. Trace at CP?

That is an option..., modeling differs. most favor double or triple the amounts in the Pocs-Catskills Sussex County NJ, whilst the 12z Canadian likes MA/RI. Development of the upper low to me favors e NYS/e PA... not in stone, except am pretty sure most of I84 wakes up to new snow on the ground and/or in progress with the band of snow in CT/MA seeming more progressive to the north with the banding hanging way back of the sfc low.

Looking like heavier wet snow tonight... isolated 3-5" se NYS-Poçonos-Litchfield County 2A-10A Sat. CoCoRaHs as of 9A this morning and a pic from about 2000' Mt Cobb area of PA exit 8 I84.

Attached drought monitor prediction 3/31. While we're on the se edge of bigger Nina rainfall Ohio River Valley next several weeks, we do get wet and its showing forecasted improvement. Not sure about a warmer than normal month... despite these first 4 days. Modeling trying to get us some wet snow I84 corridor this Mon/Tue and maybe next weekend. Something to monitor? Seems to me to ECAI is too heavy on snow but every cycle back to Wed has an inch or more elevations early this coming week. Warmer Canadian seems to be trending marginal colder precip as of the 12z/4 cycle.

Now you can look back at your post last fall and know how you did at CP, as it's not likely we'll get much past the 12.9 for the winter so far at CP. Looks like this group of participant memories (age under 35) has gotten used to snowier winters and is/feels deprived. At least we did a little better than the past 2 winters. Still this winter seems to be averaging roughly 15" or more below normal seasonal snowfall.

Summary for the model too far south fail-lack of wintry yesterday morning: A few pings or sprits of snow-ice I84 corridor, mainly high terrain and especially northern MA but no NWS storm reports so basis of assessment is mPing and two day CoCoRaHs totals. A terrible March for us here in se NYS-nw NJ-Poconios regarding late winter snow. I still hold out hope but possibly winter is about done for me here - hasn't measured here at 740' elevation since Feb 20. The only reason I hold out hope is that sometimes a bang of a start to winter can end similarly with a branch breaker snowfall for the elevations. Modeling may again be biased too far south for the 4/2-4/25 snow-ice risk I84 corridor.

Good Sunday morning everyone, March 23. Just a quick post for not much of a Monday morning I84 high terrain problem. A bit of snow/sleet/ice tomorrow morning for our I84 members, mainly on I84 and north. This might cause a few slippery spots on untreated surfaces. Timing for the Poconos, and terrain above 1000 feet in nw NJ-se NYS-mainly 1A-8A Monday, and for far northern CT and interior MA mainly 4A-10A. Heaviest snow fall of 1-2" northwest MA, otherwise less than 1/2" elsewhere, if that. Just a nuisance but be alert near dawn. Rain quickly follows Monday morning-midday. The NWS 4AM snowfall map is attached. There ae no winter advisories posted for our members as of 6AM today. Noting the 11am modeling freezing rain signal seems to be increasing a bit for the Poconos-Catskills, extreme nw NJ high terrain above 1000 feet tomorrow morning. Nothing else widespread is ahead in this coolish next two weeks. Wednesday morning might be a target for the Poconos, nw NJ and se NYS but overall it doesn't look impressive.

Well... you could be right. My thinking is that there will be a mix of snow-sleet-freezing rain down to 1000 feet in ne PA/nw NJ with scattered slippery spots in the midnight-7AM Monday time frame (untreated). It can snow-sleet down to lowest elevations there but not accumulate due to temps above freezing. Best areas for accumulations and necessary road treatments looks to me to be hills above 1000 feet, especially Catskills and n of I84 in CT/MA. That's prelim. HRRR looks like it might be too cold Monday 12z, but its temps run warm so a bit of a surprise. RGEM/Canadian have been a little colder so far. ECAI has edged north slightly the past few cycles.I have not checked wet bulbs yet at 12z Monday. More tomorrow morning... grand dadding this weekend.

OK.

Traces of snow on the ground and/or in the air I84 high terrain, Poconos to w MA and CT overnight. Attached qpf verifies the Canadian and ECMWF modeling from 00z/20 with the GFS/GEFS continuing relatively poor verification against these global models. SPC HREF did not capture the event properly until 00z/21... 3-6 hours before occurrence. I continue to monitor-rely on EC AI versus other mode modeling for wintry vs rain. ECAI many consecutive cycles continues to announce a hazardous snow ice event I84 corridor, mainly North of I84 Monday morning...suggesting winter driving habits, slower travel and /or travel delays should be in mind for those having to move along I84 higher terrain Monday morning in a healthy event.