wdrag

My last post. Event total 238P/22-7A/23 3.90 inches. Thanks for having checked this.

My last for today: 3.53 238-9P; 3.59 for the calendar day. 5.88 since the 17th. SR 23 near Kinnelon reported washed out. a report of 4.03 just north of Sussex NJ looks legit per digital STP, which seems to be reading less than reality.

Wantage NJ 4 sw at 557PM: 3.07" since 238P. 3.13 for the day. 5.42 since the 17th. Glad its easing at 557PM. Digital storm total and PHI internet STP's might be a touch low? Not much, but definitely a minimum from my vantage point here. Wont write again til (if) we pass 3.5 for the day. 602P/22.

Just sent to PHI (NWS area of respo for Sussex County NJ): Wantage NJ 4 sw... 2.9 since 238PM. 2.96 for the day: 5.19" since the 17th. Local neighbors pumping water from unusual summer flood locations around homes. Some weather underground reports ne PA into se NYS past 3". submitted 534P/22.

Attaching wunder map... several reports 2.5-3" today, most of it this afternoon and here at our house now past 2.85 since 238PM. This has to be causing some brook and small stream flooding in these hilly areas. Bad possibilities for campers near small streams. I know of folks using pumps to lower water here in our neighborhood to minimize flood risk. 527PM

Wantage NJ 4 sw (8 s High Point)...since 238PM-501PM 2.5". Since the 17th 4.85" Some residents pumping water in the nw NJ hills. another couple of hours of off and on TR+. I'd be careful crossing any flooded roadways where brooks or streams are involved. NWS posted a FFW mid afternoon. We don't often flood up here in the nw NJ hills but there's a good chance of a flash flood problem. STP's look a little low to me as of 5P. Walt 506P/22

Wrapping up... Trace ice pellets/snow here at our home in Wantage though could have opted for 0.1 but was conservative since less than 50% coverage. NOHRSC totals of sleet/snow through their interp program... attached only through 8PM last evening. Thanks for participating in this thread. I dont think we're yet done, with the NAO steep decline and then eventual bounce back and associated NAEFS d8-14 chilling ne USA. It's late season junk for most...but snow is beautiful to see. Probably won't initiate any more Obs threads unless it looks good for measurable... waited to the last minute for this one. Was in GA for the March 21-22 distant suburbs snow...right near where the Tybee Island Tornado is described in the February 2019 BAMS. 928A/6.

Confirming Wantage NJ and High Point State Park both mostly ice pellets at 3PM. Dripcicles at HPSP...nothing serious there so far. Saw on Mount Holly FB..Bath PA still ice pellets.

At High Point State Park, NJ. Mostly light ice pellets at 234pm with a t of 31 and a bit of icing evident. Pavement wet.

Still pinging an ice pellet at 150pm in Hardyston NJ. Temp holding near 36 37

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point r-, few ice pellets 35.8/19.0. T ice pellets remaining on grassy areas.

Multiple obs of sleet=ice pellets from the Lehigh Valley to Newton and Wantage the past 20 minutes...inclusive of beginning here at the house at 10AM. T 37, TD 9. Flurries mixing in here in Wantage NJ.

Good Friday morning, not much snow or sleet expected today but prolonged icing on trees/wires and untreated pavements foreseen for elevations above 1000 feet this afternoon-evening, especially Sussex County NJ into se NYS. Another marginal event but its definitely going to be cold. Here in Wantage NJ at 740'MSL at 720AM its still 32F with a very low dew point. It's been snowing a bit in Hazleton and Lehighton PA and now icing in Williamsport.

Haven't seen all the numbers yet ...several 1-2": in the 40% or greater area, seemingly high terrain. NOHRSC website hasn't updated since the 8th so I can NOT use that evaluation tool, til they restart the 24 hour snowfall tool. From my view, this ensemble probabilistic and the operational snow depth products frame expectations, much better than the old methodologies including rudimentary 10 to 1 snowfall ratios. NWS has ability to blend multiple snow ratio guidance into one reasonable product, every 6 hours, from which forecasters can run snow fall tools, based on their probabilities for snow and hourly qpf in the 6 hour periods in question. This applies to any snowfall forecasts from anyone. I just think this probabilistic guidance is getting harder to beat day in-day out. If you can't beat them, join em and essentially be a darn good interpreter-communicator of upcoming scenarios including IMPACT.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Some thoughts. A)I'm aware of the horrendous ECMWF 2m temp bust for NYC middle of last week, including my own going for 6F in NYC if more than 3" of snow on the ground in CP for Thu morning. Terribly wrong. EC and myself had a problem on the 2nd night extreme cold forecast for CHI for Jan 31 as well. Room for improvement in these potential extreme situations via 2M temp forecasts (exclusive to model output statistics). Now to what I think are more positive potential outcomes. Seems like a window of opportunity for a coastal snow event March 19-20 per trough location and max departure from normal 500mb heights on both 00z/10 EPS and 06z/10 GEFS with modeled closed surface low pres off the mid Atlc coast and 24 hr pcpn trends. At least its an opportunity, even something near the 25th-26th.Maybe something to monitor in the coming days, whether its too little too late? The 19th has been flagged for several days in the broadly reviewed ensembles, I think as others have noted herein. I do not think my area of Wantage NJ will stop at our seasonal snowfall of 35.4", because we've not yet dealt with bigger elevation "only" early spring wet snow events that sometimes occur in April. The following may be old news but I want to reiterate, as I've just spent the last two months looking very closely at snowfall guidance. I also attached yesterdays ~0830z/9 probabilistic ensemble image for 1" or greater snowfall. MUCH MUCH better than some of the algorithms used by the websites that we use, inclusive of EPS and GEFS ensembles in mixed precip events and also used in the op models across the board. I think these are using more rudimentary conversion schemes (10 to 1). These mixed precip marginal temp situations suggest to me it is better to use the available operational POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH change as a conservative bottom number for snow-sleet accumulations. I think you'll like the POS Snow Depth change, especially in situations that occur frequently here, which is above freezing layers aloft limiting dendrite growth, and of course with temps are at or above freezing at the surface. Certainly gives me a better handle on pavement accums, which is crucial for transportation. Hopefully this is not old news and is useful for review, including anyone going back in the archives. The other thing I've noticed HRRR snowfall is useful (not referring to the sometimes available HRRX variable density snowfall). 1003A/10 So far, I've only found 1 or 2 reports of more than 1" of snow in ne PA, near where the 40-50% probability was, ditto se NYS. Otherwise s of I84... generally less than 1" total. added 1005A/10