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wdrag

Meteorologist
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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFWN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wantage, NJ (8 mi south of High Point Monument - 3mi w KFWN)
  • Interests
    Relevancy into my 90s, family doing well-enjoying life, running, cycling, ATL Braves system, Weather Science.

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  1. Later start and shorter duration of snow (maybe 4 hours... amounts less, I84 corridor probably less than 1". NYC-PHL probably doesn't start snowing til 830-9A and sticking in the urban streets may be difficult due to temps still only near freezing during the snow. Will help if there is a burst of moderate snow. I'll give it a 1/2-2" range. Just changed to flurries here at 605A but temp still 34.5. too warm too long and lots of warmth to flush out toward I95. We probably had our CFP around 445A.
  2. Not looking promising this 4 day period but still a little uncertainty. The snowstorm itself via modeling trend is reduced in size and intensity. Tomorrow morning I will look at the modeling-any trends and adjust thread title.
  3. Well, in part because it is technically correct as ANA. But my take on science is try to simplify into language that cost of us understand. There is also lots of met technics that are beyond my clear understanding, that re purportedly better than old school. Fortunately old school still works. So, arctic cold front snow can work... (myself I likely to reserve arctic for 0F cold in NYC). However, I flex to not lose a persons interest. Back tonight.
  4. I know the violins and singing bye-bye OTS are close at hand, if not already pronounced by the weather ME (medical examiners): but below is why I cannot yet pronounce this gone. Note the spaghetti on the right panel for the time shown-18z/Saturday/22. The mean flow is less that 100% confident. MANY members of the 06z/19 have a hang back circulation that could mean a little later development and a more northward push if they verify. I think our NAM/RGEM will be onto this by the 07z/20 cycle tomorrow morning if the hang back verifies. If not: the orchestra plays. Click the graphic to get a better view, if interested. My last on this, probably til Thursday morning. Have a day.
  5. Yes...that looks correct. best should near I95 westward. My last post til this evening. What i do from this time forward is use the SPC HREF meanssnowfall...axis should be very good. It will be available by 11A. and of course the HRRR 12z and 18z versions. Have a great day! Let's look forward to an even nicer looking landscape tomorrow morning. The evening visit will start the OBS-NOWcast of this thread, probably a straight conversion of this one. Also, for the many of us who do not use the term ana front, katafront. One reason i don't is that its a bit confusing. In my opinion, I view the ANAfront as a warm front...(despite its cold front southward passage) frequently will be a wave of pressure falls rippling along it to generate the qpf.
  6. Try... not all work out. I still haven't given up on 1/21-24. Something has to happen here.
  7. This Thursday morning event continues. Expect a few 4-5" amounts northern NJ, se NYC, sw CT. Follow HRRR I think is best, Definitely going to impact the Thursday morning commute as temps fall to freezing or below by 9AM. Added an experimental impact graphic. My last on this til late today when I'll update the thread and make it OBS-NOWCAST. Should be a sweet morning snowfall for some of us. Have a day.
  8. Probably too positive a tilt on the 500MB pattern to allow anything north to our area 21-22. Still monitoring but for now, this one is more RDU-RIC.
  9. HRRR was mostly real good on the 16th event and will be again... slightly amped but the idea is there. It's a warm model so when it says snow... better pay attention if snow is your concern. Will try and comment at 6AM..depends: am on-call.
  10. Okay, what I mess on the dual thread, i never saw the ANA thread... My apology. Anyway, We are going to have minor to moderate impact snow event in the subforum because of occurrence during the Thursday rush hour and temps falling below freezing after initial rain showers (all snow nw NJ per NAM). I'll stay with 1-3" through the subforum with I84 on the northern fringe. The appended 21z NWS ensemble now shows a good risk of 1+, pops too low but going in the right direction. I will not be surprised at some 4-5" amounts w NJ e PA nw of I95. Good idea to be preparing for morning delays for travel and school starts (non remote).
  11. Didn't realize this topic was started as Anafront etc. Stay there. I won't comment further here. If you wish delete this particular topic thread. Thanks, Walt
  12. While uncertainty exists on the target for a rain to hazardous brief commuter significant snow event, a thread has been started to take the load off January. Thursday morning I84-NYC-PHL: Looks like 1-3" of snow in a 6 hour period centered on sunrise, with potential significant impact to morning travel due to temps falling to freezing during snowfall. There is model uncertainty on amounts. Snow could fall for an hour at 1/2-1". I84 itself seems to be on the northern fringe where snowfall could be less than 1". Amounts also depend on how fast the preceding predawn rain showers change to snow but I am confident of a snow event, just not confident who gets the biggest impact. Tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea of travel impact. I would add that climo on something like this probably favors an inch or less NYC CP, but I do think there is going to be a narrow lane of more than 1" per multiple model indications. NWS ensemble risk of greater than 1" is less than 30%, so that is the reasoning for calling this Potential, in the headline. 656PM: adjusted Title to OBS-NOWCAST. Added freezing rain and rain to the tags. First batch of mixed precip should arrive ne PA, extreme nw NJ and se NYS around 1-2A as snow freezing rain-rain, but the primary batch is slated to occur between 5AM and Noon as snow north and west of NYC til NYC-Li and NJ I95 changes to snow around 7-830A. It ends from northwest to southeast, first in nw NJ by 11A and then NYC by 1P and further southeast during mid afternoon. Amounts near I84 of a dusting to possibly 2" with a general 1.5-4" in the core of the event from near NYC/LI-down I95 in NJ. It may briefly snow 1/2mi moderate for an hour or so. Still a little uncertain where the 4 inches are...probably NJ/LI.
  13. East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. The snow could fall as sleet-freezing rain Raleigh east. Even Atlanta may see some snow from this. A better idea of timing and target will post tomorrow. If you are interested: The European model has been targeting the entire corridor with a snow storm from near Atlanta to NYC-BOS for a couple of days now, while other models are relucant, so uncertainty exists. Attached experimental graphic which does not include the probable storm continuing on the 22nd.
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