wdrag

Good Saturday morning, Seems like cooler than normal delayed one day from previous days D8-14 NAEFS posts, but coming. To my eyes, it gets interesting, especially 4th through the 14th. Trough axis is generally just west of us so we don't get the max cold shots seen in the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley. Still some notable day or two of chilly temps the first two weeks of October with a slight snowfall still possible Ads/Catskills sometime in there after the 4th and even Meanwhile, tropics look to be activating late next week. The NAEFS has a fairly impressive northward spreading area of heavy rain in the southeast USA. Suspect interest will be directed there for the 7th-10th, and how it may interrelate with the northern stream up here.

Good Saturday morning all, Lot's to speculate upon in two threads. Smoke aloft shifts mostly north of our forum today-tomorrow. Meanwhile fire danger increases in CA next week per big ridge aloft out west with SPC outlining D3-4 out there, even as fire danger in shorter term near the Rockies has resulted in a new plume out of southern WY. No topic yet on previously posted qpf graphics for Mon-Wed night but potential exists for pockets 4+. If that occurs over high density related infrastructure then iso flood problems. Just too early but potential exists per modeled QPF max's. Oct 1-10 in the Oct section.

Good Saturday morning western USA! There must be a pretty big wild fire near southern WY/northern CO border. You can see the plume modeled in these graphics, as presented for 4-5 AM this morning, and then about the same time tomorrow morning (sinking southward). Plume origination points are easily presented in the Mountains and CA. Some of you should be noticing smoke aloft this morning. Finally I added a graphic for the W coast as developed by SPC yesterday... for early next week as critical fire danger risk increases with another huge west coast ridge. Fire is my concern...and it's plume impacts here in the east. So, i wasn't sure if anyone had seen graphics such as these. Have a good day.

Hi! I add this for October per some tweets I just saw... credit to the authors listed. I trust. 229P/24

Anyone from CA/Nevada/Arizona on this Mountain west discussion group - in particular fire danger? Already WY in critical this week and looks threatening again in the desert SW next week. Just need to know where to check on this forum. Thank you, Walt

Thanks for the October thread. Think this will be somewhat interesting at times in the northeast the first two weeks of the month. NAEFS continues colder than the normal in the eastern USA through at least the first 10 days...(on average). 75F highly unlikely in early October. Since normal temps are lowering fairly rapidly now (about 0.5F/day), and with GENERALLY below normal temps coming starting around Oct 1, probably lasting through at least the 10th, I would think there is a pretty good chance that at least one day will be colder in NYC than what occurred between Sept 19-22. I still think there is a chance of a killing freeze in the suburbs after the 4th in this colder than normal period. I've added a NAEFS ensemble graphic that shows the chance of temps below 32F in early October. The chance of a slight covering of snow exists sometime between 4th and 10th in the Adirondacks/Catskills and added 1 graphic for fun only=not saying this will occur. That is the GEFS ensemble which has some sort of coastal that suggests cold enough for snow along the Appalachians. Added for fun only. The EPS only has snow for Adirondacks. The overall idea... enjoy all your social distanced outdoor wining and dining (umbrella tent sheltered) between now and the end of September. It will turn cooler than normal thereafter. 727A/24

Good Thursday morning all, Smoke coming back again here tomorrow.... not real thick but noticeable, differing from the cirrus today. 8AM Friday model guidance added. Note the sourcing of the plumes in CA. Also, WY is highlighted critical fire danger this week. Won't belabor the issue... but next weeks fire danger will be largely dependent on mountain related wind speeds. NWS in CA sees the potential for next week as a very strong anchored ridge develops along the west coast. I think it's week long, maybe longer and so we'll see if the strong offshore wind materializes. From NWS Oxnard early this morning below. .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Dangerously hot weather and near critical fire weather conditions are possible early next week across the region as strong high pressure builds across the region.

Following up: This is really for the first week of October. NAEFS prob of a colder than normal start to the month (Not the whole month-first week should be colder than normal but this doesn't say anything about the last two weeks of the month). The trough in the east seems to live beyond the 8th. Also added the chance of 2" of rain in that same period (second slide) and finally the chance of 4 tenths of an inch. As you can see the bullish 00z/23 op GFS on a storm up the east coast the first week of October is NAEFS ensembled well to the east of the East Coast. However, the coldest weather of the season may occur this first week of October, including a smidge of snow in the Adirondacks or Catskills and a chance of a killing freeze in the interior suburbs "if" we get 1 cloud free light wind night. Daytime highs have a better chance of being the coolest of the season for 1 or 2 days in this period. Finally... I don't like this pattern for the sw USA fire danger..as posted just bit earlier by blue wave... very strong ridge in CA next week... could be setting up for increased fire danger there. Need to follow the sw USA topics - NWS guidance on this. Already in the short term... WY has increased fire danger by the NWS. 658A/23

Cant promise colder but it seems the 850 temps cold be colder...if its a mixed environment or LE clouds or offshore storm passages, then the clouds keep the mins up. I kind of think this pattern has a killing freeze in it for the suburbs (1 night) but I could be overdoing it. It seems 850 temps and sfc temps in the Ohio Valley will be 5 to 10 below normal and I think that at least one day should be colder than any to date in NYC this Sept.

For the October discussion topic... Definitely colder or much colder than normal the first week per multiple models-ensembles. Additionally... 12z/22 ensembles suggest a slight covering of snow is possible either in the Catskills or Adirondacks sometime between Oct 4-6? I guess if that occurs that's not a good sign for our 20-21 winter being snowier than normal?

Smoke aloft coming fast across PA mid afternoon. Images of what it might look like for the bands 8P tonight, 8A Wednesday and 8A Thursday. NYC should see the back edge of this mornings band just to the east now, while cirrus from Teddy is along the CT River. So the 8A Thursday image suggests more smoke aloft for later Thu or Fri.

Did add to the 651A post (trajectory path from 00z/22 GFS ensemble). Not impossible for 2+ amount... but I don't see necessary long duration concentration, at least not yet. 803A/22

Wantage NJ Tue am: second consecutive frosty morning..this one more extensive than yesterday. Smoke aloft-albeit thin, is visible and will thicken from west to east late today before passing south of the NYC forum Wednesday...though it looks like a bit more to come toward the end of the workweek. Added one graphic for 2P this afternoon to show the approaching band. Ran some trajectories and not too excited about BETA contribution here, but added the forward trajectory from 500meters vicinity HOU beginning 00z/22 using the 00Z GFS ensemble. NAEFS has very low prob of >2" here by Oct 1, so it will rain and am hoping the WPC D7 totals are close... most or all of it between Sunday-Tuesday in possibly three primary bands (27-29). Will monitor NAEFS cold signal for the first week of October. This 00z/22 cycle has a high probability for colder than normal the first week of October. Hopefully many here noticed the smoke aloft yesterday, especially NYC longitude eastward. Was quite noticeable to my east forenoon Monday. 651A/22

Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc and everyone should be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable.