wdrag
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Did go back and verify. Last 9 days were 3F cooler in CP than the mid Feb 10 day period. Not much more I can say about general ensemble value, expect that its positive in a general sense week two-three.
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Wantage NJ in far nw NJ 0.2" and light snow at 445AM 32.2.F. most of the snow since about 3AM.
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Wantage NJ. 245A total 3.6". 2-3" on pavement. 31.8F.
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Wantage NJ 4sw (this southern part). 2.7" new snow since 640PM change over. Next measurement around 430 AM. 31.8F. Everything covered-draped in wet snow. Light snow continues at 1050PM. Good night.
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Wantage Nj 4sw: snow increase 1.2" past hour with 1.3" since it began all sow around 640P. All surfaces including unplowed-untreated pavements with at least 1" cover. 32.2F.
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Wantage NJ (this part) 0.6" on grass etc, none on pavement. Nothing like Bethleham PA above. 31F light nw wind at 4A.
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Wantage (this southern part) NJ 6.2" total with the dense small flake snow of 4A now becoming less dense but larger flakes. Down to 25.9F. I'm thinking this snow will survive the 50F attack on Thursday with a leftover inch or 2 in advance of Friday. Also, I don't think we're quite done today (may be another 1/2" here in far nw NJ) here but essentially storm over. Roads plowed and wet even here at mid 20s temp.
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Wantage NJ - this part of elevated Sussex County at 740' MSL. 1.5" since the 1245A report for a total of 5.8" and very fine tiny flake snow in progress. 28F
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Wantage NJ, this southern part at 740'MSL 1245AM report 4.3". Light snow in progress with 29F. Beautiful.
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Wantage NJ 0.3" snow 630-7P. sleeting since then. all untreated surfaces slippery.
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agreed.
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True. I just checked 00z/GEPS press 18z/2. the 12z/25 GGEM op is 15MB lower in MA with its 991MB low. Could it verify? Unlikely when all ensembles are much weaker. Trop tidbits has the ens MSLP and worth a check. Check Mon night and Fri-Sat. My snow at 0.7" in this in part of Wantage. I'm done for the day, possibly weekend.
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I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6.
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good.
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I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results. Thanks for your update.
