wdrag

Thanks, Used the HRRR/GFS for guidance.

Noting 55 kt recently at KALB. Also G42 kt at LGA, 41 KT KGON validating the numerous coastal CT and LI weather flow reports of 40KT+. Only 1 LSR report out of OKX so far. Posting the NYS mesonet data so far today as of 640PM. My estimation is that these values while professionally sited, are in my mind a bit conservative and may not be representative of power outage results in NYS. These may be excellent relationship to FACE wind gusts, however gusts in tree crowns 20-60 feet above ground tend to be higher (resulting in damaged branches etc).

So for whatever it's worth... I don't think today is underperforming. Here are a few airports around here with max gusts 40KT. Also heard traffic reports about trees down se NYS. Power outages growing a bit NJ/NYS/PA. Wind advisory plays well. KDXR: Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

Max wind gusts so far on meson...isolated 50's including Queens.

could be and suppress. NO guarantees but I know this is much better than a big WAR. Hope is soon going to be realized in some way...maybe mostly small?? but I'll take it and in shorter daylight.

I am starting to get interested in winter. Model evolution to the big block helps... even events beginning next week may actually provide some snow and ice. Flurries and spotty 0.1" snow showers begin Thursday morning Dec 1 along the I-84 corridor, maybe again late Saturday Dec 3...both events with wind gusts preceding the cold shots of 30-45MPH. Then next week finally trending a little colder and possibly with a winter weather advisory or two?

I took a look back and most gusts last night were under 40MPH except at a few CG locations e LI where near 45 MPH gusts were observed. No OKX LSR/PNS so no big deal.

argghhhh. I haven't looked too far in advance... I am disappointed that so far we are not showing much wintry threat between the 4th-10th. Evolution through the mid month looks favorable re: -NAO. but PNA--- I don't know. It seems like we're looking for KU situation and that might not show up til 96 hours out... instead I want to see more southern stream emphasis to the mid-Atlc coast. As for -NAO--- GEFS/GEPS look less favorable Christmas-NY. So much can change and I sure hope it does. Am getting a little snow disconsolate with constant inside runners--- but well modeled by CPC. These winters overall are just not quite as threatening early on, as I remember just 15 years ago and earlier.

So far, wintry weather ahead is not modeled before the 10th...

Anyway: Nothing new to add to the above except Low Pressure further N toward to Hud Bay and nearer 980-85MB (weaker) but time for a meso low on the CF and tighten the gradient here. Front side might be a little rough LI/NYC with a shower squall line of sorts in the 6P-mid time frame Wednesday. Ensembles 850 wind is strengthening as we draw closer to the event indicating more ensemble member agreement (55KT). OP (12z/27 NAM/RGEM and 6z/27 EC) runs have over 64 KT in the warm sector over LI. Meanwhile: HRRR offers a few G 45-50MPG e LI this eve.

Back to midweek: Nov 30-Dec 1 Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for damaging wind middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. My guess is we'll see some sort of wind damage but it is 5 days away and gradients could be a bit too strong? Strongest wind gust event possible in quite a while??? It's early but worth further future model checks before possibly discarding.

Action seems to be ahead for the I84 corridor: Uncertainty for sure, regarding damaging wind Wed afternoon into midday Thursday (mostly likely Thursday morning if occurs), then maybe???opportunities for advisory snow and ice events between Dec 4-10?? Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley.

Attached what I look at once/day... and so after this more seasonable or above normal stretch... NAEFS (at least 50 members GFS/CMC) cools down here toward the 5th or so of Dec as the block is evidenced over Greenland. Hope yes... but reality tbd. I looked at yesterdays 00z/22 extended GEFS through 800 hours and it appears the 500MB jet is constantly over the mid Atlantic states (more or less W-E). I see that as N-S thermal gradient in the eastern USA and fairly frequent waves of low press-cfp's here with wintry mix opportunity...but from what I can tell, snow-ice most favorable for the I84 corridor. Climo would say that as well. I just can't confidently tell about ECS in the ensembles, beyond 5 or 6 days. That's why I don't comment much in LR, unless I run with a very broad overview, allowing for the various options. So for now... I 84 corridor northward smattering of minor brief snow-ice prior to Dec 5. After that, improved chances-again that's climo. The good news... in my opinion WAR not likely after the 5th of Dec, for a week or two. At least the shopping windows will be viewed in somewhat wintry chill.

In the meantime: NWS Blend of models into Dec 2 not showing much, as per the NAO discussions above.

Quick wrap on accums last eve. CoCoRaHs reports. I know I had 0.5" in Wantage. Attached also the NAM3K 16 hours before the event(+snow depth change). Still looks basically not much to talk about through Nov, regarding any widespread hazardous winter wx.