wdrag

Wantage NJ 636PM about 1 min of pea sized hail mixed with rain. 48F. Now just rain with clearing west. Walt 641P EDT/30. Was mPing'd

So, here's a little mapping of yesterdays snow-sleet totals. I've also included an example of EPS prob off 3+" and NWS prob of 1+" from around 08z/23. It is obvious to me the NWS ensemble was much more conservative in PA/NJ, but did not perform very well in NYS/New England which you could also see in the actual ensemble forecasts (not shown here). EPS/EC op failure on the southern edge (too robust) may be related to how it handles sleet conversion to snow depth (10 to 1). NWS probabilistic ensemble may suffer from a problem I've been seeing regarding the GFS determining rain vs snow... I think the GFS is a little weak on determining the approximate rain-snow line. I saw this clearly a month ago in a midwest system and it occurred again yesterday. No modeling to my knowledge handled the rain back to sleet in ne PA/nw NJ late afternoon- that little surprise I can live with. The first two reality check maps are the best I can do in a hurry to fill in some actual data. The latter two, the EPS prob of 3+, 85% and greater did very well! The NWS ensemble for 1+ inch produced ~ 08z/23 didn't do too well. These are the issues that need to be dealt with in briefing folks. Finally, the complex problems of merging data sets-in a hurry I might add- in the operational setting. The last image was the snowfall forecast issued "Sunday" morning 09z/22. Not too shabby---overdone a little here and there on the southern edge, but convert the sleet to snow and you've got the numbers. Effectively, this NWS operational map which we all use for point-click output, was a pretty good effort. Good work there, imo. 1517z/24

Wantage NJ. Rain back to light-moderate sleet around 450P...some sticking to pavement. 33.8F 509P/23.

Wantage NJ...8sv High Point. Probable final. All rain now w just a few ice pellets at times. 0.4 snow sleet comprised of 0.2 snow and 0.2 sleet. 33.1 slushy underfoot on home pavement due to recent sleet accumulation. First measurable wintry stuff since 2/14-Valentines Day. Seasonal total 20.0. 128P/23.

Wantage NJ...variable intensity IP... 0.3" snow sleet total so far. 33.3F Home pavements now slippery except where treated. Not sure about the roads-not traveling. Today, seems like a good example of where sleet largely diminishes snow totals in the modeling.

NWS ensemble blend prob for more than 1" now forward... not very high probs nw NJ/ne PA HFD, even ORH. Has me concerned The probs were generated at 0822z/23. Walt

Might need to use more conservative Ferrier or Total positive snowfall in this mixed page process after 17z. I'm hoping the 10 to 1 you pasted is right but doubt very much. I will post NWDS prob 1+" 12z today-12z Tuesday...remarkably low.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point is 31F with 0.2" as of 740A. Larger flake flurries in progress at 808AM despite radar showing nothing overhead. mPing reports from vicinity Sussex are mine. Think someone else northeast of me in Sussex County also mPing. First measurable since Feb 14.

60-61 was quite a winter as well. Weatherwise writings on the ~3 big ones, got me fully committed for a weather career. The first one in early Dec 60 was a Sunday snow storm for both Washington and New York pro football games with plows clearing the 10 yard markers, I think in DC.

I know 77-78 was famous for 3 storms in Jan, 20, 26-Feb 7-8 included an Appalachian rim extremely intense storm that buried the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and no doubt it was a fabulous winter. Still 76-77 was special for its cold and frequent snows with the patterns as described previously. One might easily forget the May 9, 1977 snow storm in the interior that was quite special for heavy wet snow, tree damage and impact, especially Massachusetts. I wasn't there but the period of Jan 21-Feb 22, 2015 had to be quite special in New England with Bostons 94" and persistent cold. That's what I want to see return down here near 40N, one of these DJF winters.

I've posted this not to defend against other winters for NYC or elsewhere, but to reshare, what in my lifetime was a wonderful winter of frequent snows and persistent cold. I'd like to experience this again in my lifetime (like Red Sox and Cubs fans were for the previously elusive World Series). Some LCD material I was able to obtain for free on-line. This below us for Central Park. If you look closely it was persistently cold with fairly frequent small snows from late Dec 76-early Feb 77. This was even more impressive for the Boston area (couldn't easily find the Boston LCD's for Dec-76,Jan-Feb77) with frequent clippers redeveloping south of LI, as i recall. Wikipedia has a nice summary of the pattern and I'm sure some herein can post the overall 500 mb pattern. I am curious as to the MJO phases? I think the NAO was generally negative, PNA positive. It was a dream that some of us can recall and probably thought should be the norm. Maybe this occurs within 25 years, again? 823A/17

Wantage NJ (8 s High Point) 0.1" fm snow showers ~ 2-3A. Season 19.6. Roads salted. Pavement mostly bare with dusting of snow just on grass/roofs/cars/wooden decks etc.

430A/13 Wantage NJ final on last evenings snow-sleet..at least 0.3"(melting early today with over 1/4" rain so far). Leftover sleet on grass/roofs/wooden decks/cars, but pavement generally wet. Just salted here. 34.2/33.6. Have a good day. Walt

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point. 0.2" on all surfaces except pavement wet. 33.9 1004P. Probable last report til morning if anything is left.

Ditto Vernon here in southern Wantage NJ at 845P. snow has started. 38.7/23.5 Possibly my last report of the night.