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About WeatherFox

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    Broadcast Meteorologist (retired)

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Orlando, FL

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  2. I keyed into several sentences from the NYC Forecast Discussion and edited. Here are three: ..overall model performance this winter has been subpar regarding similar precipitation type (PTYPE) events, with too much wintry precip forecast versus actual observations.. ..a reasonable worst case scenario with a snowier outcome is for 1-3 inches east and 3-4 inches from NYC on west.. ..of note is the 12z European ECMWF Ensemble EPS mean probability for greater than 3 inches is generally less than 30 percent.. So I wouldn't get my hopes up for heavy snow in NYC for the Wednesday-Thursday event. Unfortunately for snow lovers, only 8.7 inches of snow recorded at Central Park, New York to date this winter.. Anyway-good luck..there is still time this winter and I'll watch from Florida :).
  3. Here is the American Global Forecasting System (GFS) - the times are EST and approximate. You can Google for the other weather models or look at the Model Center here on American Weather.GFS (out to 384 hours) 0z: 10:30pm 6z: 4:30am 12z: 10:30am 18z: 4:30pm
  4. Agree.
  5. Pls excuse if posted. Official NWS Forecast. Enough for a Winter Weather Advisory if pattern verifies. A Winter Weather Advisory is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather(snow, freezing rain, or sleet) that presents a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.
  6. From Intellicast, their radar in motion:
  7. Here is the KLGA, 06Z GFS MOS. This one statistical model data supports up to 2+" of snowfall.
  8. Low QPF numbers for NYC and vicinity=chance of 1-2" of light snow. Far out west they posted Winter Weather Advisories which I believe will happen here by Tuesday night.
  9. For NYC Alberta clippers usually bring light precipitation because they move through quickly and have less QPF. And today's 1805Z prog shows the weak lows are too far east for S, S+.
  10. NWS Discussion: snow changing to rain on Tuesday forecast based on warmer air arriving ahead of clipper and them favoring the GFS Model. So while you could see some snow at first then as upper air & surface temps rise above freezing precip will mix with and change to rain.
  11. Wait for official information as its potential is over three days out. In the meantime they should have food, water supplies, gas in their car and a contingency plan. I'm in Florida too, and hope it will not be too bad.