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Found 45 results

  1. BlunderStorm

    Winter 2018-2019 Observations

    I figured since meteorological winter was just around the corner I'd go ahead and get the new observations topic ready. Let the season begin!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    "Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3. Models seem set on a Gulf low with a banana High. The beginning of the storm over TX is in NAM range (stronger and further south with the High).Can we get the mid levels to wobble in just the right way? The WPC gives us all we could ask for at the surface at Day 4 in December, whatever ends up happening: EDIT to add in the end of the KMRX discussion this AM: "At this range some of the details are unclear, but it does look as if the potential for wintry precipitation Friday night and through much of the weekend is possible/probable. Details on ptype timing/transition and precipitation totals will become more clear over the upcoming days as this system is still over the Pacific and not being observed in the RAOB network at this time."
  3. John1122

    December 8-10 Storm Obs

    See obs in the storm thread, so we need an obs thread. Snow has fallen in various parts of the forum today, especially Western areas. Hopefully the 12z models are at the correct solution and this is a thread and obs archive I'm reading during hot summer days. Currently imby 38 degrees, dp 31.
  4. Carvers Gap

    Fall Observations 2018

    I just realized that we need an observation thread for Fall. With the remnants of Flo approaching, though it might not be a bad idea to get the Fall obs thread rolling. What is left of Florence looks like it might be a rainmaker(within norms) for the eastern Valley. Wind advisories are hoisted for the mountains. Western NC is under a flood watch. Rivers that flow from NC such as the French Broad and Nolichucky may flood in TN due to rain in North Carolina.
  5. First storm tracking of the season. Let’s hope we all get some snow out of this.
  6. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    It is 41 in Kingsport with a windchill of 31. Wind chills are forecast tonight to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Snow advisories are still posted for mountain communities. Still feels like winter, but spring temps are back in the forecast for this weekend.
  7. Carvers Gap

    2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Dwagner is reporting 2.5" of snow in Ducktown.
  8. Baroclinic Zone

    Super Soaker Sunday (& Monday)

    Models are advertising a couple rounds of wet precip between Sunday and Monday with a brief respite in between. Model QPF is on the order of 1-3". Enjoy. Gonna need to watch for localized flooding as the ground is still frozen.
  9. The models have been extremely consistent with this and have taken it from 240-252 hours out to now 126 hours out until the Western forum begins feeling the effects. Tonight's model suite features heavy snow for a large portion of the forum on all models. The GFS brings this per the 1-28 00Z. The GFS has been consistent with heavier snow north of 40 on nearly every run for 5 days in a row. Quite a few of these runs sees a nice bit of accumulation well south of 40 as well. The Canadian was late to the party and is still waffling around. It painted the entire region almost with heavy snow during it's 1-27 runs. Today it moved the snow axis very far north at 12z, the 00z quickly brought it back, this time west of the Plateau and north of 40. The Euro has been pretty consistent with this as well. It actually moved towards the GFS a few days ago and for the most part has held to it's solution for several days as well. Tonight's 00z run was it's most robust into Tennessee in several runs.
  10. Clown range NAM looks primed for an ice event at least for CNE...perhaps interior SNE. Rest of 12z suite will need to come back SE some to get the more wintry solutions back on the table south of dendrite.
  11. Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting. Now cast situation here. Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen. Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville.
  12. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  13. A few days ago Accuweather released it's Fall 2017 outlook. It seems to be on the rain train for fall 2017 and that's certainly been the pattern this year. We've busted the drought wide open with several flooding events and no long interludes of drought. The temperatures are much less warm than last year as well. After a warm winter we've seen a mild spring and summer 2017. Will that continue through fall? Will we have an early frost or freeze or will it be extremely late arriving like fall of 2016? Time will tell, but I'm very happy we've survived another summer season in the Great Tennessee Valley and escaped some of the extremes we can face at times in the region. Accuweather Fall 2017 outllook. https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/ec7a292/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8e%2F9d%2Fd3a3bf2c458f8f498c2346abde99%2F2017-us-fall-forecast-final.jpg Current drought monitor for August 2017 vs 2016. We are starting off much better as we head into fall. Especially given the balance of the next 2 weeks are supposed to be at or below normal on temps with normal or above normal rainfall. It naturally dries out in fall but last fall it was unnaturally warm and the soil moisture was gone by the time we started September.
  14. Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.
  15. Have at it. After a very warm winter, especially January and February, Spring has arrived early to the forum area. Oddly, my peach tree is holding tight and refusing to bloom. Here is the 6z GEFS which seems pretty representative of most LR ensembles. The Weeklies do depict March 7-14 for a return to "cooler than normal" for a brief time before going full bore into Spring w AN temps. The 0z EPS barely supports yesterday's Weeklies. To be sure the Weeklies have not been predictable in the LR when showing cold. Time for March Madness, baseball, severe weather(we have a severe thread), planting gardens(have a thread for that as well), rain, and retreating cold(did it ever get here?).
  16. Philly2034

    Found a Great Weather App

    Introducing the new Ultimate Weather App. Unlike other apps, this app will use actual observations (not an electromagnetic beam) to show where precipitation is. This app will show users the location of all 5 precipitation types (rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail). Most other weather apps only show rain, snow, and “mix.” Some weather programs (like Radar Scope Pro and GrEARTH) charge $19.99 a month. The Ultimate Weather App only costs $9.99 as a one-time fee. Pay $9.99 once, and you’ll have the app forever.
  17. The storm prediction has this area marked as a 15% chance of severe weather on Friday: This severe weather will most likely be sparked by the winter storm taking shape. However, helicity and tornado parameter models are showing that if severe weather does occur, it won't be as bad as it could be. This is at it's peak for the area that could possibly face bad weather. What level of severity do you guys think all of these storms will happen at?
  18. Carvers Gap

    Winter 2016-2017 OBS

    Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  19. Figured we might as well get this one going. The Euro has this system effecting the area in less than 5 days. GFS day 5-6. We've all seen the model runs, some version of this event has been showing up for a week or so now, but as is typical with Southern systems the models are all over the place from run to run. Today they've generally came into agreement that there will be a system that will effect at least some of the region. Up in the air as to which parts. Could be winter as far south as the 1-20 corridor, could be Northern TN/Southern Ky/SWVA and everyone in between. There is even a minor system that ushers in cold just before this one that might provide some minor accumulations. This time frame should be the event to watch but that too is up in the air still due to massive model madness. Best case for the region comes from quite a number of GFES ens members. Most of them show a wide variety of systems that hit in favorable ways for our region. Thus the beautiful means map that gives solid averages to about as wide a swath of our area as you'll ever see. That just shows how many of us are in the game at this point. Worst case is probably the 00z GFS op. It's a miller b type which means warming for most of the valley region. Maybe not all, it even has a front side thump. Some of us picked up a nice event out in front of a rainer last year. Next is the GGEM which was a little too far south but still gave the area a decent 1-3 inch average. I've not seen a 6 hour breakdown on the Euro, but I know the following panel is a look I'd take all day long in winter.
  20. Mr Bob

    Fall 2016

    Even though the next 10 days won't feel like it, I guess that it is time for the fall thread! Will we ever get meaningful rain again? When will that first night in the 40s arrive....last year in Chatt it was Oct 14.
  21. I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
  22. eurojosh

    June 16th-17th Floodmageddon

    20hr nam has it.
  23. It all looks but for certain some flooding rains and wind are headed to Florida. Uncertainty exists upon exit with coastal issues for the South-East becoming possible. Waves and rip currents at least, but possibly squally weather could occur up the South-East coasts. I will have LIVE reporting on the South-East coast if conditions warrant a trip to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina!
  24. jaxjagman

    Spring in the Valley 2016

    Since met winter is coming to a close it's time for the Spring 2016 Tennessee Valley Edition.I changed the wording on the Nina thread to just Nina and took out the spring discussion.This way there is no confusion with two different topics.
  25. NWNC2015

    Bonnie Discussion/Obs

    It appears all but certain some interesting weather will be occurring around our neck of the woods for the holiday travel/events. Below is a look at a hurricane model. Some tornadoes will also be possible if the below materializes. The HWRF takes it to 50knots near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
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