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Found 34 results

  1. A few days ago Accuweather released it's Fall 2017 outlook. It seems to be on the rain train for fall 2017 and that's certainly been the pattern this year. We've busted the drought wide open with several flooding events and no long interludes of drought. The temperatures are much less warm than last year as well. After a warm winter we've seen a mild spring and summer 2017. Will that continue through fall? Will we have an early frost or freeze or will it be extremely late arriving like fall of 2016? Time will tell, but I'm very happy we've survived another summer season in the Great Tennessee Valley and escaped some of the extremes we can face at times in the region. Accuweather Fall 2017 outllook. https://accuweather.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/ec7a292/2147483647/resize/590x/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Faccuweather-bsp.s3.amazonaws.com%2F8e%2F9d%2Fd3a3bf2c458f8f498c2346abde99%2F2017-us-fall-forecast-final.jpg Current drought monitor for August 2017 vs 2016. We are starting off much better as we head into fall. Especially given the balance of the next 2 weeks are supposed to be at or below normal on temps with normal or above normal rainfall. It naturally dries out in fall but last fall it was unnaturally warm and the soil moisture was gone by the time we started September.
  2. Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.
  3. Have at it. After a very warm winter, especially January and February, Spring has arrived early to the forum area. Oddly, my peach tree is holding tight and refusing to bloom. Here is the 6z GEFS which seems pretty representative of most LR ensembles. The Weeklies do depict March 7-14 for a return to "cooler than normal" for a brief time before going full bore into Spring w AN temps. The 0z EPS barely supports yesterday's Weeklies. To be sure the Weeklies have not been predictable in the LR when showing cold. Time for March Madness, baseball, severe weather(we have a severe thread), planting gardens(have a thread for that as well), rain, and retreating cold(did it ever get here?).
  4. Introducing the new Ultimate Weather App. Unlike other apps, this app will use actual observations (not an electromagnetic beam) to show where precipitation is. This app will show users the location of all 5 precipitation types (rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail). Most other weather apps only show rain, snow, and “mix.” Some weather programs (like Radar Scope Pro and GrEARTH) charge $19.99 a month. The Ultimate Weather App only costs $9.99 as a one-time fee. Pay $9.99 once, and you’ll have the app forever.
  5. 12z NAM rolling into the station, not much use at this stage however, but fun to look at

  6. The storm prediction has this area marked as a 15% chance of severe weather on Friday: This severe weather will most likely be sparked by the winter storm taking shape. However, helicity and tornado parameter models are showing that if severe weather does occur, it won't be as bad as it could be. This is at it's peak for the area that could possibly face bad weather. What level of severity do you guys think all of these storms will happen at?
  7. Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
  8. Figured we might as well get this one going. The Euro has this system effecting the area in less than 5 days. GFS day 5-6. We've all seen the model runs, some version of this event has been showing up for a week or so now, but as is typical with Southern systems the models are all over the place from run to run. Today they've generally came into agreement that there will be a system that will effect at least some of the region. Up in the air as to which parts. Could be winter as far south as the 1-20 corridor, could be Northern TN/Southern Ky/SWVA and everyone in between. There is even a minor system that ushers in cold just before this one that might provide some minor accumulations. This time frame should be the event to watch but that too is up in the air still due to massive model madness. Best case for the region comes from quite a number of GFES ens members. Most of them show a wide variety of systems that hit in favorable ways for our region. Thus the beautiful means map that gives solid averages to about as wide a swath of our area as you'll ever see. That just shows how many of us are in the game at this point. Worst case is probably the 00z GFS op. It's a miller b type which means warming for most of the valley region. Maybe not all, it even has a front side thump. Some of us picked up a nice event out in front of a rainer last year. Next is the GGEM which was a little too far south but still gave the area a decent 1-3 inch average. I've not seen a 6 hour breakdown on the Euro, but I know the following panel is a look I'd take all day long in winter.
  9. Even though the next 10 days won't feel like it, I guess that it is time for the fall thread! Will we ever get meaningful rain again? When will that first night in the 40s arrive....last year in Chatt it was Oct 14.
  10. I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
  11. 20hr nam has it.
  12. It all looks but for certain some flooding rains and wind are headed to Florida. Uncertainty exists upon exit with coastal issues for the South-East becoming possible. Waves and rip currents at least, but possibly squally weather could occur up the South-East coasts. I will have LIVE reporting on the South-East coast if conditions warrant a trip to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina!
  13. Since met winter is coming to a close it's time for the Spring 2016 Tennessee Valley Edition.I changed the wording on the Nina thread to just Nina and took out the spring discussion.This way there is no confusion with two different topics.
  14. It appears all but certain some interesting weather will be occurring around our neck of the woods for the holiday travel/events. Below is a look at a hurricane model. Some tornadoes will also be possible if the below materializes. The HWRF takes it to 50knots near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
  15. Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....
  16. Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
  17. I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
  18. Thought it's time to start a thread.Will change the dates when it's fine tuned.Feel the GFS to start with is missing the thermals being we have a Caribbean and GOM flow,it's to cold to me to start with,this effects instability.Believe we should see some better instabilities than what is being shown.The flood threat even if the heavy axis of rain isn't shown at the start and more to the west this should still fill the tributaries heading into the Ms River,this should be a big deal with multiple systems being shown through the week
  19. Good luck. 1234 has an event thread for the Weds 1-3" event. This thread will be for the potential EC storm on Thursday and Friday and future short range events....unless the EC storm dumps on the TN Valley and then I will retag this thread just for that event alone for future reference.
  20. Observation thread for tonight thru Wednesday event, Currently 17.4°F here, Breezy under mostly sunny skies
  21. Ok guys, this one is going to linger for a bit on the NC/SC coast so I think we need a separate thread to document/discuss observations. 4km NAM really gets this thing going later this afternoon with gust of 65+mph. It wouldn't take much for this to reach hurricane threshold, but I still have my doubts. One thing is for sure though, it is in a good spot to strengthen over the next day or so. Most models bring good rain to the Triangle and the whole Eastern part of NC so I think we could see a bit of flash flooding inland by the end of the weekend. Murrells Inlet, SC through Southport, NC looks to be ground zero for landfall but places like Wilmington and Jacksonville will take the brunt of the rain. It will be interesting to see how the Cape Fear River reacts with the storm moving more perpendicular to the coast compared to a parallel approach. Below are some great webcams to watch the storm come ashore. Not as many chasers are going to chase imo because of the threat out in the plains, so these webcams will most likely be the best source for video. If this weekend wasn't Mothers Day, I would have probably made the trip to ILM but I think I will save my hurricane chase for something later in the year. All and all this storm will be a prolonged event with strong rip currents, storm surge, and torrential rain that could pack a somewhat unexpected punch to those along the SC/NC coast today into tomorrow! Myrtle Beach, SC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd http://www.crownreef.com/webcam/ http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/compass-cove-schooner-live-cam http://www.beachcove.com/webcam/ http://www.breakers.com/myrtle-beach-web-cam/ http://www.oceancreek.com/webcam/ http://www.northmyrtlebeachchamber.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=Webcam&category=Main Folly Beach, SC: http://surfchex.com/follybeach-web-cam.php Murrells Inlet, SC: http://www.tripsmarter.com/myrtle-beach/video/live-cams/dead-dog-saloon-live-cam-marshwalk Isle of Palms, SC: http://www.carolinacoastsurfclub.org/surfcamnew.shtml Holden Beach, NC: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc http://www.brunswicklandrealty.com/beachcam Southport, NC: http://www.fishyfishycafe.com http://www.beachcamsusa.com/me/southport/southport-maine-webcam Bald Head Island, NC: http://rentals.coastalurge.com/bhi-marina-cam/ Wrightsville Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/index.php http://www.surfchex.com/wrightsville-beach-waterway-live-sup-cam.php Kure Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Carolina Beach, NC: http://www.surfchex.com/carolina-beach-web-cam.php
  22. 26/20 with a gentle wind as of 8 PM. Snow is around from today's event in patches as some melted during the day today under the Fab Feb sun angle (despite overcast skies). The high today was 27.
  23. Figured I would start a thread and try to bring some good juju. My forecast went from partly cloudy to a 70 percent chance of snow! Most models show a rapidly deepening low close enough to give us some good snow!