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Found 33 results

  1. Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate Ready? Go.
  2. Summer has arrived early this year, so let's get the thread going.
  3. There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week..
  4. rolltide_130

    Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    There has been an awakening.. have you felt it? *Cue Star Wars theme song* But in all seriousness, I think it's safe to make a thread for Monday now. It's looking increasingly like this could be the first significant severe setup of 2018. The Euro has a very large trough dipping into the central portion of the country, and it's been holding on to that feature for a few days now. It's also got a BIG response from the LLJ, with widespread 50-60kt winds from E TX all the way up into IL and IN. On that note, the CIPS analogs have some significant ones making appearances, with 3/13/2006 and 2/5/2008 both showing up as of the 12z runs today.. Still a lot of time to change, but this one is worth watching.
  5. Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
  6. As we enter into the late period of the month and we are officially into spring time, things look to bounce around as the norm goes, around this time of the year. From a high of 70 today to a high of 50 tomorrow. Got to love spring in the mountains.
  7. I need help figuring out how to calculate Dcape, "Effective"SRH (or SRH in general), and "Effective"BWD.
  8. The models keep showing this as a possible threat. Jeff mentions his reasoning for the ice potential in the winter pattern thread. A very strong cold front will sweep through the area overnight Saturday into Sunday causing crashing temps. Most models agree there will be moisture of some amount behind the front. There could also be freezing issues due to the heavy amounts of water left by the rain. In addition to the totals of ice below. Models also show some degree of sleet or snow. I believe the Euro showed an inch or so in a good portion of the area. The NAM shows some snow in parts of East Tennessee. The GFS had a couple of runs showing it too. I believe some of their maps may be incorporating sleet into their snow total maps. The worst case scenario is the Canadian, crippling ice storm for a good portion of the Valley on the 12z run. The Canadian was the first to show this possibility and hasn't wavered from it for days on end. The GFS is much more localized with freezing rain totals. The NAM splits the difference.
  9. jaxjagman

    Spring in the Valley 2016

    Since met winter is coming to a close it's time for the Spring 2016 Tennessee Valley Edition.I changed the wording on the Nina thread to just Nina and took out the spring discussion.This way there is no confusion with two different topics.
  10. While it is the 4km NAM, that model along with the less, but still notable 12km NAM are both showing a decent chance of severe weather and potentially a tornado threat in Alabama and surrounding areas on Thursday, March 24th. It seems right now, if this setup wants to be more significant, the surface low should want to slow down a bit so surface winds would be more backed in the area. Also, CAPE values generally range from around 1000 J/kg on the 12km NAM/GFS to 1500-2000 on the 4km NAM. Regardless of this, the 4km NAM shows discrete supercells in central Alabama Thursday afternoon.
  11. What are your thoughts on Day 1 MRGL, SLGT and MDT risk severe outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center in New England this year? The poll will close at 11:59 p.m. March 31st and I will post the entries. (Please include specific dates and exact numbers of each outlook to be entered into the contest) Last year, the SEE TEXT outlook is equivalent to the MRGL outlook going forward. This poll considers only Day 1 outlooks and not outlooks from days 2-8, as they could be eliminated prior to a potential non-event. 2014 stats: Date of first SEE TEXT outlook - May 10th 1630z (SW New England) 16 SEE TEXT outlooks (not including days that had prior or subsequent SLGT)Date of first SLGT outlook - May 27th 1300z (W New England) 17 total SLGT outlooksNo MDT risk outlooks - Last was September 8th, 2012 (Much of New England) The winner will simply have the least error points. There will be one error point for each day off and number of outlooks off. I'm still working out some thoughts for a potential tiebreaker. Any ideas? I toyed with the MDT risk category, but that may not help. Maybe total number of tornadoes in New England in 2015?
  12. Looks like a fairly active pattern over the latter part of this week and perhaps early next week particularly for the western side of our region.....Obviously severe is always a short fuse situation but it was most interesting to see SPC start actually using Day 6 severe outlooks (and potentially beyond).
  13. nrgjeff

    Severe Storms April 9

    Could be severe weather dinner theater from Memphis north to Paducah this evening. Couple isolated cells may develop ahead of the main line. While Illinois may enjoy more turning winds with height, and a lovely retreating boundary, heating is better in the Mid South. Looks like some sort of differential heating boundary or moisture surge from eastern Arkansas into far western Tennessee. While it could be a focus for cells ahead of the line, most hi-res guidance just shows a big cluster of storms developing. Very latest 15Z HRRR shows a cluster in the Delta actually cutting off flow into the main line and even the above boundary. Previous HRRR and 12Z hi-res NAM had better inflow for the main line of storms. Looks like mainly wind and hail to me. I agree with the low tor probs from SPC for the Mid South. Maybe we will see nice photos of a shelf cloud over downtown Memphis this evening.
  14. Models are getting to be pretty insistent on an Apps runner happening the first week of March, the 00z GFS just levels the western 2/3rd of Tennessee with heavy snow and really buries Nashville. This has been showing up quite a few runs in a row now on both the GFS and GEM. The GEM looks like it has an icy solution on it's current run. GFS snowfall on top. GEM precip/radar on bottom.
  15. From looking at models and extended forecast discussions, it appears that severe weather is possibly Wednesday, April 1st through Friday, April 3rd. SPC has outlined a slight risk for portions of Eastern KS, Northwestern MO, Eastern NE, Western IA, Extreme Southeastern SD, and Extreme Sounthern WI for Wednesday. They have also outlined 15% areas for D4 and D5 in areas of Dixie Alley for Thursday and Friday. Opinions?
  16. EML's -- packets of desert air that originate in the inter-mountain west -- are often invoked to explain severe weather as far away from the Rockies as New England. For several months I have been puzzling how such dry (heavy, dense) air could maintain its coherence and altitude while passing the two thousand miles from ABQ to BDL. To put the question in the least technical way possible: Why wouldn't it fall down? Looking at SKEW-T's I see that such parcels of air are fairly common in the East, manifesting themselves as a sharp rightward movement of the temperature line, and a very sharp, leftward movement of the dewpoint line at some point above the surface, with the two lines reconverging at higher altitudes to form a sort of tent-like pattern. Over the last year, many intelligent and experienced people have contributed to this thread, and I am enormously grateful to them. Their work is a great resource for anybody curious about layering in the atmosphere and its relation to severe weather. This post has been promoted to an article
  17. Hey everyone! I know this is a long time away, and we have plenty of time to watch it, but I think we all agree, there is going to be some kind of storm, even if its just a rain filled soaker. Any who, I have been getting a lot of questions about what is the wedge from my viewers so I threw that in there as well. Feedback is great. I don't care if its good or bad. IF you want to like my Facebook page and or twitter page that would rock as well, but you don't need too. IF you do, thank you very much. I am trying to expand those pages and get more interaction with y'all. Please share the video and invite your friends to like the page as well. Anyway, here ya go...Hope you enjoy! https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl
  18. Pretty early to be in a Day 5 outlooked area for severe. Discuss upcoming threats, potential season impacting factors and more in this thread.
  19. Discuss here because the severe thread is long and we are within day 3 range at this point. SREF is spitting out some impressive numbers already
  20. Individual storm/month/season threads for the entertaining 2013-14 cold/winter season. Storm Threads October 20-26, 2013 Lake Effect and Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41455-early-season-lake-effect-and-clippers/ November 11-12, 2013 Cold Front/Lake Effect Snow-Rain http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41649-november-11-12-cold-frontlake-effect-rainsnow/ November 16-18, 2013 Storm General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41691-november-16th-18th-storm-general-discussionobs/ November 17, 2013 Major Severe Weather Outbreak - Main Forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41679-major-severe-weather-outbreak-november-17/ November 17, 2013 Tornadoes - A Fall Outbreak For The Ages http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41779-november-17-2013-tornadoes-a-fall-outbreak-for-the-ages/ November 26-27, 2013 Snow Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41783-november-26-27-2013-snow-event/ December 2-5, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41854-december-2-5th-winter-storm/ December 5-6, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41835-december-5-6-2013-winter-storm/ December 8-9, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41870-december-8-9th-winter-storm/ December 10-12, 2013 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41922-december-10-12th-clippers/ December 13-14, 2013 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41926-december-13-14th-winter-storm/ December 13-14, 2013 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41999-december-13-14th-winter-storm-part-2/ December 16-17, 2013 GL Clipper http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42008-december-16th-17th-gl-clipper/ December 19-20, 2013 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42019-december-19-20th-winter-storm/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42001-pre-christmas-winter-storm-potential/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42040-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-2/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42059-december-21-22nd-winter-storm-part-3/ December 21-23, 2013 Winter Storm - Part IV http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42081-december-21-23rd-winter-storm-part-4/ December 21-22, 2013 Heavy Rain/Flooding/Severe http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42061-december-21-22-heavy-rainfloodingsevere-threat/ December 24-30, 2013 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42083-december-24-30th-clippers/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42169-hybrid-frisbee-storm-december-31-january-2/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42213-december-31-january-2-hybrid-frisbee-storm-part-2/ December 31-January 2, 2014 Hybrid Frisbee Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42243-december-31-january-2-hybrid-frisbee-storm-part-3/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42202-january-3-6th-winter-storm/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42264-january-3-6th-winter-storm-part-2/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42280-january-4-6th-winter-storm-part-3/ January 4-6, 2014 Winter Storm - Part IV http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42296-january-4th-6th-major-winter-storm-part-4/ Early January 2014 Major/Potential Cold http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42178-early-january-majorpotential-record-cold/ January 8-10, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42261-january-8-10-storm-potential/ January 10-12, 2014 Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42314-jan-10-12th-snowsleetfreezing-rainrain-event/ January 13-21, 2014 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42362-january-13-21st-clippershybrids/ January 20-?, 2014 Cold Snap http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42450-january-20-cold-snap/ January 22-27, 2014 Clippers http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42486-january-22-27th-clippershybrids/ January 30-February 2, 2014 Wave Train - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42577-january-30-february-2nd-wave-train/ January 30-February 2, 2014 Wave Train - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42650-january-30-february-3rd-wave-train-part-2/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42599-february-4-5th-winter-storm/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42680-february-4-5th-winter-storm-part-2/ February 4-5, 2014 Winter Storm - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42719-february-4-5th-winter-storm-part-3/ February 8-10, 2014 Snow Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42657-february-8-10-snow-event/ February 11-19, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42765-february-11-19th-clippershybrids/ February 20, 2014 Severe Weather http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42919-february-20-severe-weather-threat/ February 20-22, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42902-february-20-22-winter-weather-threat/ February 20-21, 2014 Heavy Rain/Flooding/Wind Event http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42868-february-20-21-heavy-rainfloodinghigh-wind-threat/ February 22-27, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42984-february-22-27th-clippershybrids/ February 28-March 3, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43013-february-28-march-3rd-winter-storm/ February 28-March 3, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43071-february-28-march-3rd-winter-storm-part-2/ March 4-10, 2014 Clippers/Hybrids http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43075-march-4-10th-clippershybrids/ March 11-12, 2014 Winter Storm - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43126-march-11-12th-winter-storm/ March 11-12, 2014 Winter Storm - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43176-march-11-12th-winter-storm-part-2/ March 15-17, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43175-march-15-17-winter-storm/ March 18-19, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43193-march-18-19-potential-winter-storm/ March 20-22, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43227-march-20-22-winter-storm/ March 24-25, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43278-this-clipper-ends-it-324-325/ March 28-29, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43309-march-28-29-snow-potential/ April 3-4, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43376-major-winter-storm-to-impact-mnwi-april-3rd-and-4th/ April 13-15, 2014 Winter Storm http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43422-april-13-15-snow-threat/ Monthly/season threads Winter 2013-14 Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40808-winter-2013-14-discussion/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part I http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41492-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part II http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42324-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion-part-2/[/url] Winter 2013-14 Medium/Long Range Discussion - Part III http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42943-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion-part-3/[/url] October 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41259-october-2013-general-discussion/[/url] November 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41522-november-2013-general-discussion/[/url] December 2013 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41807-december-2013-general-discussion/[/url] January 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42122-january-2014-general-discussion/ February 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42604-february-2014-general-discussion/ March 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43006-march-2014-general-discussion/ April 2014 General Discussion http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43341-april-2014-general-discussion/
  21. It's a bit early in the year, but with the winter being kind of puny in terms of snowfall I figured I'd at least make this thread and let it sit for when people have downtime. The folks interested in severe weather from this forum can discuss last years events before the season and then any upcoming threats before they become imminent. I guess the highlight of 2012 would be the June Derecho event that sparked off the horrid "Derechosauruswrecks" nickname. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2012_North_American_derecho http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120629 June 1 was also noteworthy - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120601 September 8 looks like it had a decent number of reports locally as well - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120908 And September 18 - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918 *********** I haven't looked at what our severe season could look like but I seem to recall Ian saying it could potentially suck. There was a good link posted over in the New England thread - really neat stuff http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/ I just hope we don't have too many 100 degree days...the summers can be brutal around DC. It's one of the few things we can actually do well with!!! (heat).
  22. Obviously two different events, but the first doesn't look like it will be much to talk about...thus a combined thread. Wednesday looks to have the most potential at this point. Unfortunately for chasers, this might be the last "ok" potential to chase for a while given the upcoming pattern.