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Carver's spoke of creating an early winter spec thread recently, and after another day in the 70s in August, I figured why not get the ball rolling. This for general long term talk about the potential winter patterns, etc. Right now, the EPO has went negative, it's at -12, and is in the East descending phase. In 2021-22 it fell into the negative in May and stayed deeply negative until the following May. So it should descend throughout winter. Below, average pressure anomalies over NH when the QBO is negative. Higher in the PNA/NAO region, lower over the south and eastern U.S. (These maps may initially appear confusing, since they greens are positive numbers. It just means that the they are higher by those margins over those areas or lower by those margins over those areas when there isn't a -QBO in place. Just keep in mind green = lower pressure and cooler temps during -QBO years) There tends to be higher pressure over the North Pole during a -QBO, which results in a weaker jet stream/polar vortex on average. During an El Nino/-QBO combination our forum region is slightly BN for temps DJF and pressures are quite a bit lower across the Southeast (our storm track). The map doesn't look unlike this for temps, but BN for Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina and up the east coast is more prominent than the CPC map here. Especially over Texas.
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Given that there is a tiny chance at something next week, we'll go ahead and open up the 2023 iteration of the thread. I doubt it will amount to much of anything (perhaps a better chance in the Carolinas and far SEVA) but we'll see. General mid to long range discussion can go in here, as can discussion about past events etc. In past years this has also served as a bit of an "on the fly" obs thread for events that are too small to warrant a separate thread. Pretty casual rules in this annual thread. Looking forward to our usual folks And as always - attached is the @WxWatcher007 tier system for our severe threats here in the Mid-Atlantic subforum.
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Thought this one was fired up already since fall started a couple weeks ago. Just realized I was posting in the spring/summer thread still. Of course love to keep winter storm obs in the storm threads for later reading all in a single thread. But these are good for daily obs or notable events outside the storm threads. That said, I hit 47.3 this morning after a day time high of 69 degrees yesterday. Pretty similar temperatures for this same period in September 2015 when we got a nice first cold front of the season on 9/13 and had two days of great temps. It was 70/46 on 9/13 and 66/43 on 9/14 that year. Current temp is 71 degrees here, sunny. It was 72 about an hour ago but dropped back a little. In 2015 we never got back above the 84ish range after the front. It had been in the upper 80s for days on end leading into it.
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March 2nd Moderate Risk ArkLaTex
Ed, snow and hurricane fan posted a topic in Central/Western States
After today's significant Oklahoma outbreak (a derecho and SigTors), March 2nd already 30%. Thursday afternoon and evening look severe-ish.
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There is likely going to be some warmth during mid-month - and maybe extreme. So, I am not starting this thread w/ any sugar coating. That said, models are sniffing out a cold shot to start this month which wasn't seen on some modeling even 24 hours ago. In life we go one day at a time. Let us not borrow the troubles of tomorrow until they arrive. 12z Yesterday and 12z today of the GEFS. -
Mid February is usually when the early peeks at severe can sometimes start showing up. Judging by the models and the long range thread, looks like maybe a marginal threat for Thur night? General severe discussion, remembering past events, and all that usual stuff that goes in here each year can go in here again. Hopefully we get some good thunderstorms this spring and summer. Looking forward to plenty of copy and pasting from @yoda, downer posts from @Eskimo Joe, great analysis by @high risk, and plenty of sun obs that turn into nothing. Giddy up! And for humor sake - see below
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Looking into the near future it looks like we will see a few shots of colder air and some more cold mornings with frost and possibly a freeze. Really the daytime highs will be perfect.
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Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
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It's March...and even though we probably have a few more winter weather threats ahead...it's time to launch the 2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Pattern stuff can go in here, discussion leading up to events and more. Same guidelines as past years. Thread will probably idle for a month or two - let's hope for some general excitement this year.
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This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
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Long range modeling is well into meteorological spring now. Things also get pretty quiet in here beyond winter, so probably not a huge need for monthly threads for a while. That said, we are coming out of a huge flooding/rain event and the GFS is showing a possible return to those conditions. The 16 day rain total, from 00z shows 10-12 inches falling over the period. So the extremely wet patten looks to continue. There may or may not be a brief cold shot in the early month period and there could be a winter threat in there, though obviously have to be heavily skeptical of it. After that, if we can believe the weeklies, warmth is back for the remainder of March.
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Since we are taking a brief hiatus from winter for the next period of time...and since there is some small instability and good shear available tomorrow (see SPC discussion for day 2) - I figured we'd get a super early start on our 2018 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx thread. Let's see how badly we can fail this year with storms splitting around DC, storms missing the area entirely, and our typical gusty showers from a pencil thin line. As bad as winter weenies are around here - I think our severe weather folks are even more desperate Ready? Go.
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2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread
FlatLander48 posted a topic in Southeastern States
Summer has arrived early this year, so let's get the thread going. -
There is potential for a significant, multi-region severe weather threat for the very early part of next week on all major models. The 12z GFS, NAM, and EURO all show a shortwave ejecting out into the central and eastern U.S, and seem to be converging on a severe weather outbreak for multiple subforums. A sub 995mb low is forecast to traverse from KS into Southern MO/AR, and very strong moisture return is forecast to push up into parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Dixie, and Tennessee/Ohio Valleys ahead of this surface low, and both low level and deep layer shear is more than adequate for a potential multi region severe weather outbreak early next week.. -
There has been an awakening.. have you felt it? *Cue Star Wars theme song* But in all seriousness, I think it's safe to make a thread for Monday now. It's looking increasingly like this could be the first significant severe setup of 2018. The Euro has a very large trough dipping into the central portion of the country, and it's been holding on to that feature for a few days now. It's also got a BIG response from the LLJ, with widespread 50-60kt winds from E TX all the way up into IL and IN. On that note, the CIPS analogs have some significant ones making appearances, with 3/13/2006 and 2/5/2008 both showing up as of the 12z runs today.. Still a lot of time to change, but this one is worth watching.
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Advertised cold weather pattern should commence around December 6 and work in here well by Dec 7-8. I would like to limit precipitation charts to within 5 days. The exception is NWFS for the Mountains and Plateau, which is more skillful because it does not require an exact storm track. Discussion of favorable pattern (odds) is OK and even encouraged past Day 5, just no charts please. The good news is SER intrusions have departed recent model runs. Oh there is always a trade-off in the South. Northwest flow in the Plains gets as close as the Mississippi Valley at times, which opens the door for mild interludes within the cold pattern. Even with some variability the cold 6-15 day period carries high confidence. I put it near 85% in the 6-10 day; better than 50% in the 11-15 day. Still a slight risk that Day 10 mild interlude is the end, but I think cold reloads for the 11-15 day. Near textbook upper level pattern really lacks surface source region support though. Alaska and most of Canada cold is not strong. Manitoba and Ontario will get cold but it barely gets colder points north. Quebec looks strong but it's not our trajectory. Sustained cross polar flow from Siberia is required for impressive cold this time. A few days would not be enough since temps are AN in Alaska. Northern US snowpack deficit is a gaping hole in the equation for record or even just strong cold. So I think the 6-15 day will be cold enough to put one in the Holiday mood, but not particularly impressive. First front (6-10 day) may under-achieve as usual coming into a warm regime. Second front (11-15 day) should verify so long as it actually gets in here (>50% chance). If the upper level pattern holds through weeks 3-4, we might be able to talk about stronger cold anomalies. Right now looks like some lows in the 20s first half of Dec. If looking for teens or colder, more time in the cold pattern is required. A minority of ensemble members show a decent pattern for winter precipitation in the 11-15 day. Others are cold but dry. A smaller minority is too warm. I am looking for an active southern branch through the Deep South, not NW flow and zero SER attempts.
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There is a great competition called Virtual Storm Chase that has been given new life (for bragging rights only). This is the same competition that was started over on the old wxchat forums several years ago (mid 2000s). For those that do not know what it is, I have a attached a PDF copy of the rules below. It is a great learning experience for those interested in severe weather forecasting and a great way for even meteorologists to keep sharp. http://virtualstormchase.info The site "appears" to be broke ... but once you register (free) and login it works. Rules: Rules _ VirtualStormChase.pdf
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Not much has changed. It is starting to look as if the warm sector will continue East in active form. Could see a multi day severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Ohio Valley/dixie alley. People in KS, OK, MO, and AR really need to be paying attention to this. Original blog post on this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/8/entry-95-early-week-plains-severe-threat/
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Looks to be a significant severe weather threat early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop and move off the Rockies … as usual with upper level energy approaching/crossing the Rockies. Ahead of this system, there will be an extended period of northward return flow off the Gulf of Mexico … setting the stage for a moist and unstable boundary layer as our system moves in around Monday. A dry line will develop across Western parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. As the dryline moves East, forcing (dryline and upper trough) looks to become sufficient for the development of thunderstorms within moderate to large instability and long/open hodographs. If things hold, would likely be a moderate or high risk day from SPC … with violent/strong long track tornadoes possible across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
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While still being a day 5ish event, it is not to early to start looking at some of the possible implications of various models. At this juncture, we generally have the GFS and the Euro book-ending a possibilities window that includes a cutter to Chicago and a more suppressed system that goes East of Hatteras For the most part been consistently left of the GFS ... with its ensembles a tad to the right of the operational Euro (but no where near the GFS). The 12z GFS Ensembles cut the difference with somewhat of a middle ground ... bringing the primary low into Ohio, with a coastal transfer. Depending on the amount of moisture return that is achieved in the warm sector, the operational GFS could be a notable severe weather event. And would keep QPF amounts across the DC/NOVA area on the light side with little possibilities for winter weather. The transfer with this solution simply happens too late to provide the lift for precipitation and wraparound of cold air. Then we have the Euro with it's more southern solution. It would mean a smaller spatial window for severe weather possibilities and a better chance for wintry weather for the area (especially west ... like we saw with the early March event). Given the time range and the placement of the the ensembles in the middle of the operationals I would expect to see some compromise towards the middle in terms of track over the next 1-3 days ... rather than an extreme on either side verifying. If I had to pick a solution verbatim from this mornings 12z suite for the heck of it, it would be the GEFS.
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Possible Plains & MS River Severe Weather Episode Next Weekend
thunderman posted a blog entry in thunderman's Blog
Some type of severe weather threat is appearing more likely around the Saturday time fame from KS down into northern TX as a low develops on the flat side of the Rockies and works to setup/organize a dry line and triple point region. As the system pushes east, there is the potential to have a respectable cold front kicking into a moderately to highly sheared 60F+ Td warm sector along the MS River/Dixie Alley. Obviously too early to start boarding the train, but there is def potential for this system to produce a multi-day severe weather event ... possibly an outbreak ... from the Rockies east towards the MS River. Crappy moisture return is the biggest thing that could easily bust the event IMO. -
Evening/Overnight Tornado Threat in MS River Valley Region
thunderman posted a blog entry in thunderman's Blog
Eventual tornado threat will depend on how unified the current line of storms becomes. If it can manage to maintain some semi-discrete updrafts within the line, then all current data points towards a significant nighttime outbreak across AL/northern LA/western MS. The combination of boundary parallel upper SR winds and low level SR winds on the order of 20-40 knts has me personally a little worried about a too unified squall line ATTM for a significant tornado threat. Some guidance manages to keep the southern end a little less unified enough that it overlaps with favorable hodograph environments ... so around the LA/AR border area may end up being ground zero for this event. -
An area of low pressure with move out of the plains and up to our Northwest. As it passes by, it will drag a fairly healthy cold front across the area Wednesday afternoon/evening. It is only January but strong winds just off the surface leading to strong shear, a good quality warm sector, and linear forcing with the front may be enough to trigger a strong to severe line of forced convection along the cold front. The primary threat would be damaging winds and heavy rainfall with PWATS possibly exceeding 1.5".
