Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I'm on Team USA for this one.

30/30/40 odds of normal, above and below doesn't seem like a very bold prediction. Thinking of the Klozbach early April out;ook, where he didn't know how strong Nino would get and how a warm Atlantic MDR would counter the tendency to suppress storms, so he split the difference, it getting closer to Summer, SOI is finally acting like it should for a wamr ENSO, and the PDO is changing to reflect the equatorial temps. I'm trying to find a comparison between current Atlantic warm anomalies vs this time last year. I doubt they have gotten warmer in the last year, but my Google fu is weak. A couple of years ago, I could switch years in the Gregorian number in the URL to compare one year to the next, but for whatever reason, AOML seems to have made that password protected/

Since I assume climate models change (are tweaked, adjusted, what have you) in 8 years, a warm bias from 2015 may not still exist now.

Worse the two counties to the N

Jim Edds will have a daytime intercept.

Nice outflow boundary, gusty winds, a little thunder and 20 drops of rain FM 1960/TC Jester region N Houston.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 322 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas... * Until 345 PM CDT. * At 322 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Panorama Village, or over Willis, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

I wonder if the earlier bend W increases the threat to the Philippines, although most GEFS members recurve before landfall.. Cat 3 over or near miss of Guam is a big deal. Looking at maps a few days ago, I forgot all about Guam because it is so small. I spent a couple of hours in Guam, in the airport.

Adjusted to 10.5/ 4.5/ 2

Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter. GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend. GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon.

Has some very weak Euro and GFS ensemble support. Not impossible it could become a weak named STS. I think the first lemon of the season

I used to be a subscriber, both AccuWeather, and WxBell of JB. Weather Bell tripled my intro rate, and JB's focus shifted to politics. I agreed with a lot of his politics, but he went down the DJT rabbit hole, and I was paying for weather, not politics. Did I mention WxBell tripled my annual subscription? Anyway, I don't think he operates for clicks or retweets. I know only amateur weenies are supposed to wish-cast, but he is a degreed wish-caster. He sees hurricanes every year in the Northeast because he grew up in Rhode Island, and also sees snowy winters. But because it is what he honestly wants. Just my opinion. Maybe he is monetizing weenie-ism, but I don't think he thinks that is what he is doing.

TS Mawaw (it will be called Betty in the RP) when it enters Pagasa area of responsibility) may be a threat to the Philippines in a week. I don't have the attachment space to post the GIF, but it is looking good. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir Sub 920 on GFS in a week. Op GFS and Euro are a near miss N of Luzon, 0Z Euro ensemble is close. Re file name, Pagasa uses Filipino names, usually English or Spanish, and are a lot easier to remember than the WMO names of WPac cyclones.

2006 would make by contest predictions pretty good. I don't pretend to understand all the Tweets, but these guys sound like they know what they are talking about. The balance of a 1997 Death Niño against an abnormally warm Atlantic.