WxWatcher007

The TC genesis signal looks right on the edge of 7 days judging by the ensembles. While I think the CAG (Central American Gyre) signal is real and we have a good chance of something forming, I’d say we need more time to lock that signal.

Severe geomagnetic storm underway!

With a Kp 8 too now

For the aurora folks—now sitting at a Kp of 7 and Bz is south.

@GaWx I know 99L and PTC 8 didn’t complete tropical genesis, but the pattern has been ripe for development and I think it’s becoming even more conducive with a possible CAG setting up next week and maybe beyond. Unlike frontal boundaries, these regions are purely tropical, moisture laden, and don’t necessarily have the shear issues. That said, anything trying to pop in a CAG would need time to develop, and given the broader eastern CONUS pattern it’s unclear if anything substantial can happen before areas are drawn north by the continued troughing we’ve seen. The homebrew regions of the Gulf, western Caribbean, and southeast coast is where my focus is the next two weeks.

Worst of it definitely being taken out on NC, with the heaviest rain now just offshore.

NHC notes that the GFS is a little fast.

Speaks to how much uncertainty that there still is with where the low goes. Shortly after this we’ll be tracking the possible CAG and development in the western Caribbean. The MDR is a lost cause but the homebrew regions continue to look ripe the next few weeks.

Found this interesting from the 8pm advisory. It seems that they don’t have a real heading currently and now it’s likely to become tropical rather than subtropical. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

True, but the mid level feature does look dominant right now. Agree on the SST drop limiting whatever potential there is.

That’s quite a robust mid-level feature on radar. Even seeing some lightning in the convection there. It still has some time over the warmest waters off the coast, so we’ll see if that feature is able to become fully tropical. It looks like it’s getting there. I didn’t expect that pocket of low shear.