WxWatcher007

Yeah I’m definitely starting to wake up now. Neither wave is guaranteed to develop but if the lead wave in the central Atlantic can avoid land it could have a window for some development in the western Atlantic. I know 92L is the focus right now but I wouldn’t take my eye off either as something to casually watch.

CSU updated outlook was released and no surprise an above average peak us expected despite CSU dropping overall numbers a touch. Both SSTs and shear so far this year track in between our above average and hyperactive years.

Is 92L the ONE?

No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L.

Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired.

Yeah watch the western MDR in particular. We should get a couple of waves that’ll have a chance with the more favorable MJO phase.

You came all this way and didn’t visit me? RUDE. I know I tried burying you alive a few years back, but I thought we were past that.

Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive. I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.

Not enough hype. Cat 3 or bust.

Don’t even have to say it. That’s already a lock. Congrats PF

Yeah—it’s like a 2 on my interest scale. If we had development and a little more time further south, it’d be a different story. At any rate, looks like a nice potential rainmaker with some breezy conditions on the coast.

I haven’t really started looking until now but my quick thought is yes if it can get genesis going off the SC coast and over the Gulf Stream before lifting NE. In the whole scheme of things though it doesn’t look particularly impressive IMO. It doesn’t look fully baroclinic to me on the GFS but maybe I’m wrong @CoastalWx @weatherwiz?

August is here, which means we’re just a few weeks away from the start of the climatological peak. A lot of talk around the MJO happens, and as we look at a potentially favorable window near mid-month, it might be helpful to have a primer on MJO.

I've been making a point to sleep (though work has been getting in the way) because I know it's impossible for me to get more than a few hours when a threat is on the table. Hopefully I can get in at least one more chase this season. There's a good signal for late August to be active, which doesn't always happen. I'm expecting the peak to be well above average but just shy of hyperactive. IMO the SST profile in the MDR is the reason why. That said, the basin is heating up.