WxWatcher007

Wanted to post earlier but work got in the way. I wasn't paying much attention, but I looked at the Atlantic today when I saw that we had another subtropical storm and found an interesting little critter down in the central Atlantic. Looks like it's now 99L. It has a window to develop, but might be dogged if shear remains persistent in the Caribbean and drier air to the north causes problems. On the 6th I said that things were likely dead for two weeks, so now I guess it's time to reevaluate a bit. Looking at the long range of the guidance, it looks like the MDR might be opening up a bit to tropical waves over the next few weeks. We could be seeing a fall in vertical wind shear over time and if we get a parade of waves, that could help dampen SAL. In addition, and helpful to 99L right now, a CCKW may be in the right spot, aiding convection of the invest. I'm not running to say that this will develop into much, but hey, things are starting to look a bit more interesting. Not sure how long that lasts. Right on time as we begin to turn toward the end of August. I'm at a 2 on the interest scale. Better than the 0 to 1 I've had most of the season so far. ETA: there are some GREAT tropical folks I learn a lot from on Twitter. One of those people has been talking about the Atlantic a bit tonight. Interesting stuff (which I definitely DID incorporate into my post ) https://twitter.com/pppapin

lol @ all these subtropical systems this season.

I'm sorry but I had to laugh at that. I was just dropping in and saw this post and went to radarscope. You weren't kidding. Very impressive storm.

How do people live with you?

Close enough to see structure. Far enough to be practically harmless. Perfect.

Terrible. He’s a really talented back.

lol ok

Not surprising.

Haha well winter is right around the corner

Are you pretending it’s snow?

Excellent fuel for the coming Cat 5 up the Bay.

Bleacher Report has the Vikings in the top spot for their 2018 power rankings. Ladies and gents, the most glorious time of the year is almost upon us. 1. Vikings 2. Rams 2. Eagles 4. Saints 5. Patriots I am not sold on Kirk Cousins.

Definitely going to try to go with solar panels when I buy a house. It seems to be pretty popular here in town and a good investment.

I agree in part. Even with a hostile environment, I agree that we probably see a few hurricanes make it across the Atlantic. It's hard not to get any CV action. I disagree that the upper level pattern is bad though. For the last month or so we've seen pretty persistent ridging in the Atlantic that would steer something close if it popped, especially if there were a trough out toward the midwest. Of course, it's impossible to say if we see that kind of pattern persist into the peak of the season. I prefer to wait until something pops before looking at the UL pattern, but the window has been there. Howdy! I posted the climo images below on tropical cyclone development right up to what tends to be the peak of the season. I agree that we're not really there yet when it comes to vigorous waves coming off the African coast. As you will see below though, that's pretty normal at this time of year. Things don't really start to pick up until the end of the month in that department. We'll have to see if the SAL continues to play a role in addition to the negative SST anomalies. A parade of waves, even if they don't develop, can help to moisten the environment for future waves. I think it's also interesting to note that throughout this period historically, while the Caribbean is pretty much closed, the SW Atlantic (homebrew region) and Gulf of Mexico gradually increases in activity. That may be the area to watch first for any type of long range threat, especially as cold fronts penetrate deeper and stall during the fall. Edit: since the website still sucks https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori10

Moving the tropical stuff over here. Right now, things are dead, and I expect that to remain the case for the next two weeks. Historically, this is a dead period, and the overall environment doesn't look awfully conducive for tropical activity, aside from that random invest in the middle of nowhere lol. The MJO favors the PAC right now, and that basin is lit up like a Christmas tree. ENSO also looks to go Nino at some point, which would suppress tropical development in the Atlantic. TCHP is concentrated along the SE coast and in the Caribbean. But you don't necessarily need high TCHP to get a good storm going. The SST anomalies are still awful in the MDR, and we're getting a lot of SAL (dust) pushes into the eastern Atlantic, reducing the chances of an active season if that keeps up. I'm still harping on a homebrew/Caribbean season because SSTs and TCHP look to be best in those regions. I didn't put it here, but looking at the shear numbers, things look bad, particularly in the Caribbean, which would certainly be a graveyard if something tried to develop there. So for now at least, we're likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic. If/when the Nino materializes, we'll have to see if the response translates in the Atlantic pattern. If so, we're probably going to need to wait for a fighter of a tropical wave to get close, or deeper cold front pushes in September/October that allow for something to spin up.