WxWatcher007

18z Euro was a bit more bullish with development in the Gulf, but so much depends on what kind of coherent circulation comes off the west coast of Florida and where.

2.88” MTD here. Some places in western CT nearly doubled my total today.

Western CT getting drenched under that FFW

The ICON has led the way so far with its appearance on the Atlantic side. I’d keep an eye out along the Gulf coast. There’s a favorable window here.

Invest 93L off the FL coast now. Looking pretty good. We’ll see if it’s coherent after crossing Florida.

93L looks pretty solid for an invest. If it weren’t about to plow into Florida it’d definitely be on the path to development. It really has been a homebrew season so far…

Maybe not?

It’s coming.

So much for a dry day lol

I do think the designations of a reg FFW and then the emergency alerts going off when you get to considerable or catastrophic is an excellent change. The FFEs as well. People do heed those.

I agree that happens, but then the time you have no watch and all hell breaks loose people wonder why forecasters dropped the ball…or in the most dramatic and tragic of consequences people die. Idk if there’s a particularly great way to do this. I think we also suffer from the bias that we’re weenies here. We track and follow this stuff. For some person that’s completely clueless about wx, a watch may actually be helpful because otherwise they would’ve had no idea if not for the local news mentioning it on their way out of the door or popping up on their dumb (sorry, editorializing lol) weather app.

Up to 30%, and the ensembles are slightly more bullish today.

Today was beautiful. Sitting on the patio during sunset was awesome.

Really hadn’t thought about that. Runaway warmth…

Yeah—I’m really interested to see if the basin takes advantage of what looks like a more favorable sub-seasonal window in late July-early August. I do think that where activity happens could be a good predictor of tropical Atlantic activity during the peak. Despite all the back and forth on here, I don’t think anyone disagrees with an active outlook in the western Atlantic.