mob1

Confirmed tornado approaching Rolesville

Radar velocities still show some 100 mph winds just off the deck for areas just inland

Pretty impressive actually, not sure what some of you expected.

Some hurricane force gusts starting to show on personal weather stations along the immediate beaches east of Pensacola.

Looks like the more consistent and stronger winds will move into the coastal areas between Pensacola and Panama Beach in the next 30-60 minutes.

So resilient

Radar (and the microwave pass posted above) did show some signs of degrading and possibly starting an EWRC, but radar has since improved.

Based on radar it could be a bit more of an eyewall meld than a true EWRC (which is sometimes common as it approaches land and the friction causes it to tighten up a bit) but it's definitely degrading which is welcome timing.

Surge is always tricky to nail down, but while the inhibiting factors will help, there's actually a decently large areas of strong winds on the eastern side of the storm and I believe the northern gulf is slightly more susceptible to surge due to the shallow continental shelf. Likely won't be devastating, but I can see areas like Destin seeing a fairly significant storm surge.

NAM is pretty far south with the precipitation so we'll see, but I'm assuming some of this will rotate through in the next 6-12 hours.

There's an obvious tradeoff with both a southern and northern track, I just personally enjoy the wind aspect more. Was hoping to get some of the more extreme outcomes depicted by some morning runs, though verbatim this was likely very overdone.

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

Hi Res NAM (and some other models) have this occurring a bit further north and has much tamer winds than some earlier runs. We'll see if it was just a blip but often as these events approach they trend a bit NE and weaker so we get a bit of a lackluster storm relative to expectations. We'll see how it unfolds, but personally I much prefer the 12Z NAM runs (despite sputting out far less precipitation. Rain events are a dime a dozen, good wind and coastal flooding is somewhat rarer).

Does indeed come ashore in central NJ

Thanks but that's 06Z. 12Z is running now on Pivotal so we'll see in a few.