mob1

A note of caution about the ICON, it shows anything with below freezing surface temperatures as snow (and vice versa) so it wouldn't show sleet or ice.

Southern vort is MUCH further southeast

At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run.

06Z Euro looks a bit better, has snow at hour 90 for SC and everything looks a touch east. It's hard to extrapolate from there as many models look good at that point and then take a sharp turn N or NW. We'll see what the EPS does.

Could be worse

Pretty ugly run, hopefully tomorrow brings better trends.

There are many individual members that are near the benchmark. As a mean, it's almost comically different than the OP, it's unusual to such a large difference.

The irony is that models usually do the opposite when we want an offshore storm to move West, they chase the convection to the east and collapse the best dynamics there.

Canadian, moves even further NW from there

Because hope springs eternal

Yep, ends up in central PA.

It's running correctly now. There was some issue with it this morning.

Man, the storm goes really far west on the GFS. Just refuses to budge. Still a nice front end thump.