Powerball

Looks like some of the smoke from the wildfires out west is making it all of the way down here.

I love how FFC basically copied the midday update from yesterday and used it for today...:lol: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000 FXUS62 KFFC 101605 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 .UPDATE... Forecast remains largely on track through morning. Hot and humid conditions are expected once again with heat indices nearing 100 in the southern part of the region this afternoon. There is currently no convective activity in the area, but more active weather is still anticipated this afternoon as a shortwave moves across the Tennessee valley. This shortwave will allow for the organization of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening, with some strong to severe storms possible within the system. The primary threat with any severe storms that occur appears to be gusty winds. Given the deep moisture in place over the area, strong storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and lead to some isolated flooding concerns.

More storms developed early today (1:30pm). It did put a cap on highs, only reaching an intra-hour high of 88°F.

In total, picked up an estimated 2" in one hour. There were several very close lightning strikes and oud cracks of thunder too. Now it's time to rinse, wash and repeat today!

Made it to 91*F today with mainly sunny skies all day, but after sundown, storms popped up overhead from the outflow boundary. Getting some intense rains and gusty winds with them. Radar estimates an inch has fallen in the past half hour.

It looks like the lower east side of Detroit got a nice hit yesterday. A couple wind reports came out of the tiny cell that hit the area.

I recall that happening with a tornado watch in Michigan back in 2006. I think it happened during the same event as that long-track tornadic supercell that tracked from Iowa to SW Michigan during the overnight time hours. A second round was poised for the following day, but as usual, the widespread strong t'storms all morning completely worked over the atmosphere. The best that came out of that watch was an isolated fast-moving heavy rain shower, lol. I think ON_WX has the failure that was the SPC outlook for that day in his avatar

It appears that yesterday's flash flood may have led to 1 death... http://times-herald.com/news/2018/08/gsp-flash-flooding-may-have-played-role-in-fatal-crash

There was an unexpected mesolow that developed late yesterday afternoon that tracked NE just east of the I-85 corridor. It produced a widespread 2-4" and flash flooding along I-85 (including here in Newnan) up to around the Hartsfield-Jackson area, mostly within a 1 hour time span. The winds were pretty gusty with it too. 0750 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E RIVERDALE 33.57N 84.40W 08/02/2018 CLAYTON GA EMERGENCY MNGR PART OF UPPER RIVERDALE ROAD WAS REPORTED CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 0750 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE RIVERDALE 33.59N 84.39W 08/02/2018 CLAYTON GA EMERGENCY MNGR WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROAD ON GARDEN WALK BOULEVARD HAS RESULTED IN PART OF THE ROAD BEING WASHED OUT. 0630 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE THOMAS CROSSROADS 33.40N 84.65W 08/02/2018 COWETA GA SOCIAL MEDIA WATER WAS REPORTED MOVING OVER THE ROADWAY AT BEAU BROOK LANE AND HIGHWAY 34. 0630 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW CANNONGATE 33.47N 84.67W 08/02/2018 COWETA GA NEWSPAPER THE WATER WAS REPORTED IN THE ROADWAY AT THE ENTRANCE OF NORTHGATE HIGH SCHOOL. 0645 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W THOMAS CROSSROADS 33.40N 84.73W 08/02/2018 COWETA GA EMERGENCY MNGR EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER OVER ROADWAY AT WHITE OAK CREEK ALONG INTERNATIONAL PARK DRIVE AT WHITLOCK FIELDS. 0645 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE NEWNAN 33.40N 84.78W 08/02/2018 COWETA GA EMERGENCY MNGR WATER OVER THE ROAD REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER AT INTERSECTION OF ELAINE DRIVE AND ANTHONY DRIVE. ALSO NOTED PIPE DAMAGE RESULTING IN CLOSED ROADWAY ON ELDERS MILL ROAD.

Good thing I cut the grass today. Storms have finally moved in from the NW, after a mostly sunny day.

Now it's producing golf ball sized hail.

It looks like a tornado and ping ping size hail has been reported with the cell near Opelika, headed towards Phenix City and Columbus

Atmosphere has recovered nicely. Managed a late day high of 89*F after several hours of clear skies, with dewpoints having pooled back into the mid 70s. The anvils from the storms developing to the west are blowing in now.

Mesoscale Discussion 1122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018 Areas affected...northeast Alabama...east Tennessee...northern Georgia...western North Carolina and western South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211937Z - 212200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachian region. Some of the storms will become capable of producing downbursts winds and possibly some hail. Though a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible, it remains uncertain whether storm coverage will become sufficient. DISCUSSION...This afternoon isolated storms are in the process of developing along an old modifying outflow boundary from northeast AL into middle and east TN. Other storms are expected to initiate over the higher terrain of east TN and the western Carolinas. The surface layer in vicinity of the outflow boundary continues to destabilize with diabatic warming boosting MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg based on latest objective analysis. WV imagery shows a band of deeper ascent accompanying a vorticity maximum spreading southeast through east TN, along with a mid-level jet that is contributing to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear. The greater storm coverage will likely remain confined to eastern KY into northeast TN where vertical wind shear and instability are weaker. Storms developing farther south across much of the mesoscale discussion area will probably remain more isolated to widely scattered, but some of the storms could acquire mid-level updraft rotation, and a few instances of downburst wind and hail will be possible. In addition to expected isolated storm coverage, another potential limiting factor for a more robust severe threat is weak mid-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored next couple hours for a possible WW issuance over a portion of this region. ..Dial/Hart.. 07/21/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35858216 35178190 34648253 33768365 32598476 33088552 34508591 35798518 36248346 35858216

12z NAM still shows an impressive 4000+ J/KG of CAPE later today and LIs of -11 to -12. It also develops a 2nd squall line this afternoon that will dive SE over many of the same areas.