Powerball

Models continue to struggle with convection this morning, as the radar remains quiet this morning acroas Southern OK and North TX. This afternoon could get interesting. The same models have been indicating a line of storms developing mid/late afternoon along the front as it eases SE. Most of them hold off on organization until just SE of DFW, although initiation slightly earlier than projected would make a big difference for impacts in DFW proper. This is certainly a plausible solution as the cap should be non-existent by midday. If that happens, soundings are certainly supportive of damaging downburst winds and flash flooding.

Welp, that's looking like a big fat fail right now...

Today's high at DFW was 96*F, tying the record.

00z models have trended slower with the cold front just like the GEM. So Saturday may still have a shot at 90°F yet...

Thanks to a fair amount of convective debris today, only made it to 95°F at DFW (1 degree shy of the record high).

DFW will need the 90°F+ days to continue until Saturday to tie with the longest streak on record for May (previously set in 1996). Projections right now are that it will fall 1 day short, unless the front slows down like the 12z GEM advertises...

It's a bit too far out to get into specifics, but at first look, I'm kind of liking the look of 5/20 for decent severe weather potential.

So we got 2 camps of models for tomorrow:1. The GFS / EURO / HRRR / RAP showing highs in the mid/upper 90s.2. The NAM / NAM ensembles / GEM only showing highs in the low/mid 80s.^^^We will find out which set of these models is terrible. I want to lean towards #2, but on the other hand, #2 does a good job of picking up on those shallow cold fronts that end up stronger than forecasted.

Real clown map there...