stormdragonwx

Just... eww. That really sucks.

Could be true. It will be interesting to see how much of that wraparound holds together or intensifies as well. The latter could also decide things for SW MO and NE OK.

There's talk of a dreaded Dry Slot now... that could kill our overall totals here in AR too. Storm was too good to be true. https://twitter.com/NWSLittleRock/status/1618057323569713153?s=20

Was driving around. Been parked up here by Drake Field/Greenland with 1.5-2 in of accumulation already. Its covering parking lots and the main streets now with the latter being a slushy mess but still covered. Large heavy snowflakes continue to fall.

Indeed I was surprised how quick it changed over and accumulated since my last post. And yes it's sticking to both grassy surfaces and surprisingly even to parking lots and lesser driven streets. Dropped rapidly to 34 at my location over the past hour. Large wet heavy flakes falling.

Yeah higher elevations might still get the forecast 6-12" over my way but I think where I am at Im probably gonna be seeing 4-6" max if this doesn't shift SE as some models are wanting to hint at otherwise. Lower 40's temps is not a good sign.

Hoping the temps start to crash soon here in NWA or the forecast might get blown. Currently 42 here at my place.

Fun times ahead. Figured its time to break out the HREF data. Its been awhile. Also worth noting, the 8"+ parameter probs are lit up too. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_prob_series&sector=sp&postage_stamp=true

That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder.

Winter Storm Warning just issued. Extends all the way out into New Mexico. Edit: Ninja'd by NWAflizzard lol

"CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems." I remember the Christmas 2002 snowstorm. I was in SW Missouri at the time. That was fun. Had 26 inches on the ground for Christmas day.

Heh ironically my station down here did the opposite on the 10pm news. Too funny how they flipped.

@ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system.

Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here.

Crazy to see the NAM is now being more bullish than the GFS. (Posting Kuchera because I personally feel the 10:1 totals are too unrealistic approaching 2 feet in spots)