stormdragonwx

Historically speaking... yes. When I was a kid March used to be around here as well. Not so much in recent years though.

Yeah that was a pretty fun little surprise snow squall. Got a quick inch out just east of Fayetteville.

And that's all she wrote. Got 3" officially here in east Fayetteville. Measured in 4 different spots to verify.

Winter Storm Warning expanded west to encompass all of NW AR now. SPC also put out a Meso Discussion regarding a Heavy Snow Threat increasing for much of MO/AR.

Snow has reached Drake Field in Fayetteville as of 4am. Temp at 33 degrees which seems cooler than what was forecasted this soon. Gravette, AR reported the changeover about an hour ago with heavy wet flakes. TSA also updated their Decision Support graphic.

The model data is lining up with the currently ongoing precip in KS. Another good sign if you want the snow totals to verfiy. In fact, moderate to heavy snow is occurring already just north of Wichita on GR3.

Amended my above post. Crazy to note too that rural areas like Kingston and Jasper in Newton Co, AR could see upwards of 20". EDIT: The WRF is showing 30" lol

You guys beat me to it. lol Interesting development being less than 12 hours out now. 8-15" being shown over the metro part of NW Arkansas via the RAP, 3km NAM, and HRRR 00z runs. The 12k NAM is a bit more conservative showing 4-7". There's also talk of convective banding/thundersnow developing over this area. Feb 9th, 2011 all over again?

^Yeah I think this system is even confusing the forecast data algorithms and not just meteorologists. Been seeing odd anomalies going on with the short range convective models like that. Same with weird spotty accumulation maps being rendered.

HRRR showed under an inch for much of NW AR and NE OK, it will need to be watched closely but myself and my colleague at the TV Station I chase with is considering it a fluke ATTM. This low still has a lot of potential still to overperform.

A word of caution. Some of the data is showing a nose of warm air filtering northwestward from the I-40 corridor which could kill totals for much of NW AR and E OK. This could be our Lucy for those in this area. Shouldn't be an Ice Storm threat but could still be 33 and rain.

Hopefully that gets extended west.

Yeah been burned too many times personally in the past, its why I have always remained cautious ever since this system showed up on the data.

Same with TSA. https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDTSA&e=202201122039 Though what I always do is go over all the modeled snowfall amounts, then average them out and thats the ballpark range of what you may be getting for the forecast area. If the pattern holds an average of 3-5" seems plausible over much of the area.

Yes it might just be the natural cynic in me as I've seen it happen so many times before but I think this weekends winter storm has huge bust potential. I remain cautiously optimistic. Yes all the models are starting to go bonkers in our favor but the system is still offshore. Once it gets sampled it could go either way. The next 24-48 hours will definitely tell the story.