stormdragonwx

Unless something really drastic comes up on the data I'm thinking R.I.P. winter.

Looking at some of the long term data we might be done unless something happens in March. Showed promise but turned out to be a very meh season.

Had snow for about an hour here in Fayetteville and now we're getting dry slotted hard in the NWA area, might be a bust here. Never fails.

Data still looking insane for many areas along I-44, still waiting on a few more 00z models to come in.

12z runs, take it as you will HRRR 3km NAM WRF-ARW NSSL-WRF FV3 Basically areas to note is Central/SW OK and extreme NW AR and SW MO get slammed tonight. Even accounting for melting this could be significant.

00z runs (divide totals by 2 to account for melting that will likely occur) HRRR NSSL-WRF FV3 3km NAM RRFS-A

Yeah looks to be returning to our Nov-Dec pattern. Wonder what the rest of Feb into March shows or if that was our winter for the season.

Yeah Dan Skoff in his FB Live Update towards the end of the video sounded quite worried about how this could potentially overperform. The AR River Valley along I-40 could really get it. https://www.facebook.com/NWAWeatherAuthority/videos/930132298622291

I will say I am not too thrilled about the icing potential next week. At least in snow you can get around if you know what you are doing. It also means more power disruptions which is not ideal with the extreme cold we have had.

Could be my imagination but it might be back building a bit towards Tulsa on the latest radar scans?

Currently 1 degree with moderate to heavy snow falling. About 2" so far.

Yeah and people were panic buying at the stores over the past couple days too once the Watch/Warning got posted. A lot of people are gonna be PO'd. We will probably just see a repeat performance of Friday with flurries and a dusting at best. I mean this isn't even warning criteria. Really confused on why they went with the Warning.

Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory.

Personally I'm really surprised they went for a Warning. 2-4" is barely even Warning criteria. (4+ is) Another thing too is the air is extremely dry at the midlevels which will cause sublimation to occur.

With the models trending drier I am expecting TSA and the others will drop the watch and replace it with another advisory.