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About JoMo

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    Joplin, MO
  1. Yeah, back to back stinkers for winter. It happens. Looking more like it's back to El Nino next winter, the question remains on how strong it'll get.
  2. Tornado hit parts of/near San Antonio it sounds like.
  3. 95 degree temps 3 days ago to snow today in western OK.
  4. 80 or so now. Even crazier in SW OK where they are pushing 100. Actual air temp, not heat index...
  5. Nice late Spring day out there today.
  6. Good idea, reverse psychology. "A watched pot never boils"
  7. Yeah, I'm tossing in the towel as well, things not looking good on the weeklies and even the ensembles are changing. Still a chance for some snow at some point until Spring arrives but it's just not happening this year. Maybe a weak to moderate Nino next winter.
  8. Around Feb 6th or so is when the next possibly sustained cold will arrive. Snow/frozen chances after that will depend on storm track(s).
  9. Yeah in general 1-2 week intervals in the modeling. When it was supposed to get cold, it got cold. Although, there was an epic battle in the Euro ensembles where it was basically 50/50 much of the winter. The individual storm systems are more uncertain though. The weeklies, for instance, show the general longwave pattern in the longer range. It's not always correct, because long range modeling isn't going to be perfect, but you can see the general expected pattern. However, I can't tell you how many times they showed a -AO or -NAO 2-3 weeks out that failed to materialize though. It was a common theme.
  10. Looked that way for a bit and the weeklies were pretty meh.... but now I'm not so sure. Still can't really buy any -AO. Pretty much nothing but +AO all winter, and that doesn't work for cold in a -PNA.
  11. That's a possibility. Winter isn't over yet though and Feb is typically our snowiest time of winter and it just takes 1 storm. That sustained winter that most are hoping for didn't happen, but at least we saw some flakes before Christmas, and the ice storm wasn't too destructive for most everyone. Next year is looking like it's back to El Nino, either a weak or moderate one.
  12. Weeklies have the +PNA type pattern towards the end of Jan with the eastern trough. Looks like something wants to come underneath as we go into early Feb. Mid-Feb becomes a little less defined as the troughing out near the Aleutians wants to push back east a bit, faint signals of a bit of something over the south and southeast though, then it looks stormier in late Feb into early March at the end of the run. Temps in an hour or so. EDIT: Temps are below normal at the end of Jan into Feb.. normalish through mid-Feb... then above normal through almost late feb, then below normal late feb into early march.
  13. Euro ensembles are still going to the general +PNA idea in the long range. Weeklies will be out soon to see if it continues.