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About JoMo

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    Joplin, MO
  1. Doug's first thoughts on winter. He thinks it will be cold with near average to slightly above average snow. He's busted the last 2 winter forecasts though. http://headypattern.com/friday-night-saturday-am-blog-quick-look-at-the-winter/
  2. 12z Euro ensembles looking more interesting as we head into the first week of Dec with the SW troughing.
  3. All the 'fake' weather websites on FB took that GFS run with the snowstorm seriously and have been spreading it everywhere. I've had people saying it's going to snow a lot next weekend.
  4. Hmm, also wet over OK/TX on the JAMSTEC.
  5. At least it felt like fall today. Boring boring weather otherwise so far. A lot less 'snowstorms' showing up on the GFS back in Oct and early Nov this year, last year it kept showing them, of course it was wrong, so maybe the opposite happening this year will be a positive moving forward. Just a heads up for those that don't know. Ryan Maue (formerly of WxBell) has been posting his model maps at "http://wx.graphics/" Euro snowfall, precip, temp anomalies, etc.. Even the EPS maps.
  6. First frost/freeze for many looking very possible next weekend.
  7. Euro/GFS keep showing chances for a little snow for someone in the area. Not sure it'll happen though.
  8. IRI update today supports La Nina. (67%) https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/figure1.gif
  9. Interesting and very detailed write up. Looks mild and wet 0 to +1 for this area, eh?
  10. Euro Monthly? has been posted on twitter. Temps above normal Dec, near normal Jan, above normal Feb. Precip below normal Dec, Above normal Jan, below normal Feb. https://twitter.com/meteologix/status/917356329760710657/photo/1
  11. Accuweather looks to be going with La Nina climo https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894
  12. New thread for 2017-2018 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50335-moksarok-2017-2018-winter-wonderland-discussion/
  13. Thought I'd try my luck at making the winter thread. Hopefully it won't turn out like the last few winters, and we'll actually have a winter this year. This year looks like it's probably going to be a La Nina year. Strength is still TBD, but it appears it's most likely to be either be weak to moderate. You can check out the latest forecast on ENSO here: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ La Nina years typically give us sporadic cold shots (sometimes very cold) followed by warm ups. It seems to give us a 'backloaded' winter a lot of the time. Meaning Dec is usually warm and Feb is usually colder. The CFS v2 has been showing just that. Latest can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html As far as analogs, I've seen 1999-2000 mentioned and 2007-2008 mentioned. 99-00 was an averageish winter, except for above normal snow in much of AR (minus the far NW portion), and eastern OK. 07-08 was the year of the ice storms.
  14. IRI enso product flipped to La Nina. Interesting seasonal forecast: