JoMo

Guessing we had probably 4" or so before it melted. Big flake size, it was very pretty, and then a few hours later it was almost all gone.

It's a freakin' snow globe out there. Big flakes, cached to the trees and it's coming down at an impressive rate.

Snow coming down at a good rate here now. It's accumulating due to the rate.

Eh.. for me it's the marginal temps and narrowness of the band of heavier snowfall and where that narrow band ends up.

00z GFS was south as well

Well, at least this time the Earthquake wasn't accompanied by tornado warnings....

Looks pretty boring winter-wise through the first week of Feb.

0.25 to 0.50 with 20+ mph gusts. Yikes. Hope you don't lose power.

Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in.

The Canadian is probably too cold, that seems to be a bias it has. It does look like there will be some freezing rain though but temps do look to warm for most of us by the afternoon. Maybe not for Doramo's area though. The 00z Euro did come in several degrees colder with more freezing rain. Gonna have to be watched.

Yeah, sleet sucks when you are expecting a lot of snow, and the amounts are gobbled up by sleet instead. Not to mention the annoying "ping" sound against north facing windows. Small amounts of freezing rain/ice accumulation make the trees very visually striking, but too much is very destructive. Gets a lot of the dead limbs out of the tree though.

Sleet sucks because it could be snow. Nothing more annoying than having a storm that's supposed to produce a good amount of snow end up being a sleet storm because it's 33 degrees in some part of the atmosphere and the 'warm nose' wasn't modeled well. Ice storms suck worse because you lose trees and power lines. 2007 was the year of the ice storm here and with over 1" of freezing rain is crazy and everything looks like an alien world.

Nothing like being -1 outside with steady snow coming down, even if it is small flakes. Long range forecast looks the same still, gonna lose the -EPO and the source of cold until late month when it becomes re-established.

It was never going to be a super big storm, it was a weak/dying shortwave moving though. With that being said, 2-4" of fluffy snow is generally possible due to how cold it is. It may even overperform in the most prolific band. Looking ahead, it looks like we should lose the -EPO in a week or so but it looks to reestablish itself by the end of the month. Looks like they moved the Buffalo game to Monday since they are expecting FEET of snow. With that being said, Go Chiefs!

Yeah the 06z GFS has an additional round on Monday night-Tues this run. Interesting stuff.

06z runs of most of the models looked a bit better though.

Looks like Lucy is up to her old tricks again. Even more dry and almost a non-event on the 00z Euro tonight.

Well, this type of system is all about the atmospheric response to the upper wave moving through and the temp advection at the 850-700 MB layer lifting up and over the cold air at the surface. The stronger the wave, the more lift that will be generated. If it comes out flatter/weaker than the temp advection will be weaker as the winds won't respond as much and the lift will be less, which generates less precip. There's also going to be banding that sets up where the lift stays the longest and that's the area that will get the heaviest amounts.

Yeah the 12z Euro has a weaker/flatter wave which results in very little snowfall production.

Morning Tulsa AFD for brief thundersnow chances with Friday system: And for Sun/Mon

Springfield AFD on Sun-Mon

This looks like it's actually going to come true. Winter Storm Watch for pretty much all of Iowa for this storm that was looking good for us 4 days ago, lol

Wind Chill Watch out for most of KS for -15 to -30 wind chills. Sat evening through Tues morning.

Yeah the Fri system gets screwed up because there's a small piece of energy to the north that doesn't fall apart until it's too late so the trough stays positive for far too long. Early on that wasn't supposed to be there so we had a strongly negative trough coming through pushing all kinds of precip back in the cold air. One small thing can screw everything up, though. The 00z GFS looks very cold for a very long time. There is a very persistent -EPO showing up this run.

00z Euro is slower for Fri but just not quite enough. EDIT: The Sunday/Monday system looks great for OK/AR though.