JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Well, there was a 10%-80% chance of it happening. The same Springfield that took major heat for missing several tornado warnings recently as well.
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Currently in a heavy band that's near whiteout at times due to the wind. I expected early on that in this type of setup that the area that got into the heavier bands of snow would end up with a lot more than areas outside the banding. I'd say it looks like maybe 5" out there but can't really tell due to the drifting. I know Doug Heady said 3.5" earlier before this band started.
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Been snowing here. It's the same small type of flakes that happened during the blizzard in 2011. Blowing around everywhere. About down to 12 degrees.
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Radar returns increasing and it looks like the main show is about to begin. Got a dusting from the early morning stuff. Shooting for 8" or so here, probably more down across northern Arkansas.
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700 MB winds veer quicker, kind of like what the Euro has been showing.
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Darn, back down to 5-14" with 10" expected here. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF
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18z ICON shifted south a bit but it still has that double band thing going with increased QPF in our area.
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15:1 down near Neosho when the snow starts, increasing to 16-17:1 and ending at 18:1
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18z NAM is more juicy. 4.2" of 10:1 on the 12z and 10.1" on the 18z at Tulsa. Interesting band of snow popping up before midnight tonight as well along the KS/MO border. And it's colder.
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The 18z HRRR is shifting farther south again with NE OK being the main target area instead of SE KS.
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Been interesting watching the WPC page showing the expected snow amounts increase upwards over the last few hours. Back to 7-14" range with 12" expected in Joplin. 2 hours ago it was like 5-13" with 10" expected. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF EDIT: Updated again. 6-15" with 12" expected.
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00z Euro is going to be quicker with the system and the 700 MB winds veer west quicker so less precip.
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Yeah, I doubt the heavy band parks over Joplin like that, but that's a dream run.
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00z GFS is a smidge farther south and a bit slower. I'm starting to think this may actually happen now.
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The 00z ICON ended up farther south as well. 00z RDPS moved slightly south.
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Yeah the 00z NAM is going to be farther south and maybe a bit slower.
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Good to see the 00z HRRR pushed the Arctic front farther south compared to the 18z.
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And the 18z GFS shifted back south a tiny bit so that's good.
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It is a bit early, but 6-10" with 14" in snow bands seems reasonable although their southern counties could bust if there's movement north of the heaviest snow. EDIT: 18z NAM continues the slow creep northward with the heaviest amounts.
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It's wild seeing almost 12-24" of snow over your house and it's for one event that isn't 360 hours out.
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Really coming down here as well. Windy. Maybe a quick 0.5-1"
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Even though it's far out for the NAM, it did have the 700 MB winds more back to a more southerly direction on the 18z compared to the 12z, lots of warm moist air from the south on the 700 MB temp advection map lifting up and over the cold temps. Also from the Springfield AFD. Useless. >8 inches: 15-80% (lowest near MO/AR border)
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It's completely stupid and the public doesn't understand it. 10-60% chance of 6+" is completely useless as well because it goes from a slight chance to likely.
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And a shift farther west with some of the heavier amounts as well. I'm just not certain how wide the bands will be since this is all based on frontogenic forcing.
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18Z RDPS and ICON also giving snowfall on the backside of the system Sat night. The 18z ICON has shifted south a tad with the Tues system.
