JoMo

Got upgraded to a winter storm warning. Sleeting like crazy still.

Sleeting here as well.

Ever so small shifts south in the freezing line. So close, yet so far from getting snow. 00z GFS is going to be nuts with multiple winter storms.

12z Euro pretty nice for around these parts.

Got probably 5-6" here. Difficult to tell with the drifting. Might end up with another 1-2" tonight.

Looks like we're at about 4-5" here. Still coming down.

All snow here. 17 degrees..... "Foggy" looking outside.

Props to the Euro for seeing the farther south track of this next round days ahead of all the other models.

The joy of having a north facing window during a sleet storm. It's windy, and loud!!!!!

Cooled off to around freezing here, mixed precip ongoing.

00z NAM is better for far NW AR this run as well. The decrease in lift/dry slot happens pretty abruptly this run so things end quicker.

00z HRRR much better for NW AR as it sufficiently cools the column to produce snow.

Springfield updated their WSW and Winter weather page after the 3 PM hour. Greater than 6" went up to 73% here. Greater than 8" at 47%, but the "Expected Snowfall" is 8". Hmm. 21z RAP is nice for everyone.

I'm pretty confident on getting 4" IMBY, somewhat confident I may see 6", but anything over that I'm not confident in seeing. Too close to the 850 MB line and I've seen too many times where it ended up being warmer than forecast or there was some layer of the atmosphere that was just a little warmer than models thought which ended up giving more sleet. Despite the cold surface temps, the ratios won't be that great due to this warmer layer being nearby as well. So in general I think 4-6" is a good bet for me.

18z NAM playing dangerous games with the 850 MB line again.

Not a lot of change on the 00z RGEM, less amounts overall but snowfall positioning was pretty similar to 18z run.

Springfield's Winter weather page has all sorts of graphics. Looks like 6-8" for me expected. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter

Through 48 hours the 18z NAM is going to tick SE with everything.

Just looking at the 10:1's for here at hour 84, Euro 9.3", GFS 9.4", GEM 7.0", NAM 7.4", RGEM 8.5" Looking like maybe 6+" is a good possibility assuming no warm nose funny business.

06z NAM continued going north, 06z GFS went farther SE. Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for some areas. Springfield: " It is worth mentioning that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index indicates a potential for an anomalous snowfall, and the Shift of Tails indicates that at least 50 of the ECMWF ensemble members are forecasting a higher-end snow. Again, the warm nose will be a big determining factor." Looks like Wichita is forecasting 6-12" or so of snow. Tulsa will issue a Winter Storm Watch in 12-24 hours.

00z Euro was a nudge north as well.

Pretty sure UKMET combines all frozen precip as "snow" on those maps.

That's usually with strengthening systems though, not dying ones. 00z GFS looks to be pretty stable.

00z RGEM moved a bit farther NW as well, especially in MO.

Go to Pivotalweather, then pick the NAM model, Zoom into Central US. Then look under "Upper Air: Height/Wind/Temperature". After that, go under "Temperature and Wind" Go to "850 mb, Temperature, Height, Wind" The blue/green line is basically where the 850 MB freezing line is. Anything north (and west) of that is going to be snow in this particular scenario because all the other levels of the atmosphere are below freezing. anything SE of that line will be sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on temps.