JoMo

Some big ice storms showing up on the 00z GFS and 00z Euro tonight.

Yeah, looks like some chances for flurries/snow showers wed night/thurs and then maybe a couple of bigger storms the first week of Feb, location uncertain at this time though. After that, things get kind of questionable as the ensembles vary on what happens next.

Unfortunately, that's pretty typical of La Nina. Every now and then one will come together far enough west though.

Overall, just poor timing and energy in the northern stream kind of squashing everything. If you view the 500 MB vorticity image on the 18z GFS at 96 hours (18z Mon) you can see the closed system across the Texas Panhandle. You can also see another piece of energy across SW Montana. If we wanted a bigger storm, we'd want to see that piece of energy over Montana phase into the back of the system in the Texas PH. It doesn't. Also the northern stream kind of shreds the system. It's all about having the correct timing and pieces in place.

The timing of the system on the 24-25th is interesting on the GFS. There's a system opening up and lifting out of the SW as energy digs into the backside. If there's a phase, there would be a much larger storm. EDIT: And the 12z Euro must have read my post........

Definitely going to have to watch N AR and S MO Wed night for a quick burst of wintry weather. Decent 850mb frontogenic forcing is going to try to force some mixed precip and a band of snowfall somewhere in that area.

Not much model support, I think the 12z GFS individual ensemble members had 1-2 members that had something. Going to be tough for the models to key in on anything with the way the flow is.

-EPO looks to persist. In time, it may shift more to the NW, which would cause the eastern trough to retrograde back west. Tough to time any individual systems that may form though.

Not sure, it was all melty and wet but probably like 1-2" on the grassy/elevated areas.

Temp rise is from the inverted trough. Temps should start falling again.

Back to a flizzard here. Cold, Snowy, with playoff football on TV. Beautiful day.

It's snowing lightly and there's a white dusting on everything except the roads which are just wet.

The 02z is indeed colder here, from about 32 on the 00z to 29 now for much of the morning, but man, that inverted trough is a pain.

00z 3KM NAM pretty crazy over NW AR as well.

And from 1.7" to 5.7" 6 hours later on the 00z NAM. Granted only 1-2" of that will probably actually stick, but it'll be nice seeing some snow coming down. From 10.4" to 1.7" to 5.7" in 12 hours.

N AR just getting hammered on the 00z HRRR.

Stupid inverted trough.

Never change NAM, never change. From 10.4" to 1.7" in 6 hours. lol

lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks.

Pivotalweather but it's only specific hours that run longer than 21 hours.

Looks good, lock it in! Must be on the pivot point. Too bad it's the NAM.

Yeah, I agree that it could end up overperforming. Strange things happen under strong upper lows. We'll have to see.

Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow.

Yeah, it's the NAM anyway, not like it's going to be right, lol.