Models have had a signal for some type of storm system around Thanksgiving. 12z GFS/GEM going with a cutoff of sorts developing...somewhere. 00z Euro was more progressive with it.
Yeah the Mon night system was always kind of marginal, especially with temps. Surface low in the Gulf doesn't really help plus the system is weakening and there's a lack of low level forcing. It's just Mid-Nov though, which is the good thing. Not even the coldest time of the year yet.
I remember that happening a couple times as a kid. Waking up on a Spring morning with 4+" of heavy wet snow stuck to everything and not having to go to school, when the night before the only thing that was called for was a rain/snow mix. Of course there are other times I remember snow being called for and waking up to rain and 34 degrees before as well.
Some snow showers possible tonight across mainly southern MO and N Arkansas and parts of E OK. Monday night another chance but temps might be kind of marginal. Then we'll see what happens after that.
Eh, it's still almost a week away, temps look marginal. Gonna depend on what happens with 3 different pieces of energy and how they interact with each other. I'll take snow anytime we can get it, but especially before Christmas.