JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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00z RGEM moved a bit farther NW as well, especially in MO.
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Go to Pivotalweather, then pick the NAM model, Zoom into Central US. Then look under "Upper Air: Height/Wind/Temperature". After that, go under "Temperature and Wind" Go to "850 mb, Temperature, Height, Wind" The blue/green line is basically where the 850 MB freezing line is. Anything north (and west) of that is going to be snow in this particular scenario because all the other levels of the atmosphere are below freezing. anything SE of that line will be sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on temps.
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If it keeps warming, it might be freezing rain.
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00z NAM continues the trend of pushing the 850 MB front farther NW.
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Well, the Chiefs lost, so hopefully the snowfall pans out to cheer me up, lol
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Springfield with a good overview.
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Wagons Northwest!
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The 850 MB front keeps getting farther NW. Hoping that changes.
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Going to highly depend on where the 850mb front sets up at which will determine precip type. Nail biter for sure.
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12z Euro pretty much caved to the GFS and went back north.
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The thing that would mess it up for me would be the 850 MB temps don't cool enough before the bulk of the precip moves out, which would result in a giant sleet storm instead of snow. Arkansas will be probably having this problem for sure.
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That initial band now showing up on the 12z NAM across Missouri/Kansas drops some decent amounts of snow. It's 850 MB front induced which currently sets up shop around Joplin this run while lifting slowly north. EDIT: Same story with the 12z RGEM but the 850 front sets up farther south near the AR/MO border.
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Wait what? You want Ice instead of snow?
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On GFS, 850's are toasty until the 850 mb low passes through.
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12z Euro with the big snow hit to Arkansas and S MO.
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Still a variety of solutions on the GFS Ensemble members but there's a lot more QPF at play this run.
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Definite shift south on the Euro tonight.
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11 degrees and snow would be some decent rates on the 18z GFS.
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Tues/Wed
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Nope, just snow/rain is showing, but you can check precip maps + temp maps to see what falls when it's below freezing.
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00z Euro continued the farther south with everything trend. Decent snows for most of the area.
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Trend has been for a faster moving Arctic front and a weaker wave.
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The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods.
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Weren't flurries just expected? Dusting at most?
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18z GFS probably going to go pretty nuts.
