JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Doramo probably has the best chances with the upcoming system. These 'clipper' type systems usually end up farther east.
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So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow.
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That Saturday storm is a weird one and has came back west quite a bit on the 00z GFS. Interesting. EDIT: 00z Canadian follows with a farther western track/stronger upper low. EDIT2: 00z Euro is farther west but weaker as well.
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Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US.
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After tonight's little snow shower which may accumulate an inch or two in some places, it kinda looks pretty boring winter weather wise. There will probably be somewhat of a warmup through about mid-month and then we will probably go into the deep freeze, if the ensembles are right, due to a big -EPO.
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The system on Wed night/Thurs looks a bit moisture starved in our area, it will pick more up as it heads east. However, it's going to be cold and there's a decent amount of forcing, but it's moving quickly so I wouldn't be surprised to see an inch or two somewhere. In our immediate area, Missouri is the most likely place to see accumulating snow it looks like. Springfield has a winter probabilities page that shows what they are thinking as far as amounts are concerned. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter
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Had some light snow/flurries here off and on. Nice dusting outside.
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Still looking like the worst will be north of our area. 18z NAM is interesting with closing off that secondary system and bringing snow to basically AR/MO/NE OK.
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00z GFS coming in a bit colder farther south with the New Years storm. Might be more of an ice threat for OKC/Tulsa/Joplin/Springfield/St. Louis than earlier thought if it's right.
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Unfortunate for our area. Been hoping for a change farther south but so far, not happening.
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Santa delivered a pretty wild 00z GFS and even the 00z Canadian had some hope as well.
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Merry Christmas to all. Now back to filling the pool up and lighting the BBQ.
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Interesting changes on all the ensembles as we head towards the end of the month with more high latitude blocking showing up and a more favorable Pacific. Been a really boring December.
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Nothing really exciting as far as winter weather goes for the area. Pretty horrible pattern for winter weather through mid-month it looks like. After around the 21st or so. The Aleutian ridge looks to move into more of a favorable -EPO position. That should result in a greater chance of colder air oozing SE down the northern Plains. So, things might get more interesting near Christmas into early Jan.
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There's a long way from now until next weekend though and lots could go horribly wrong. With that being said, there is a chance. It won't stick around long as it's going to warm up after, but it would be nice seeing it falling before Christmas.
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Models are still ugly though at least mid-Dec. My fav time of year for snow and cold and it's going to end up being unseasonably warm.
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The ensembles are pretty ugly for the foreseeable future. Horrible pattern.
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Happy Thanksgiving to all. The GFS has been teasing the long range but nothing set in stone yet as far as winter weather goes.
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Pretty much all the models have shifted to a solution favoring more of a northern stream system and cold frontal passage/rain for us around Thanksgiving.
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The models continue to change pretty significantly from run to run when it comes to the time period around Thanksgiving. The most surprising being how much the 00z Euro changed from the 12z Euro today. It all hinges on what happens with some energy coming out of the SW US and if/how it interacts with some energy moving in from the north/northwest. The models are having trouble deciding on what to do and that has a big impact on the weather expected from Thanksgiving into next weekend.
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Did you feel the Earthquake? And yeah, it's still very much in the air about next week, everything would have to line up pretty well for it to happen.
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The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though.
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The Thanksgiving time period has switched around a lot on all the models from run to run. Theoretically, it's possible.
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Winter snowfall looking near normal for most months except Feb. https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf All kinds of cool maps from Ben Noll. https://github.com/Dreamsh0t/copernicus_imagery
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Time for the fantasy winter storms to start showing up on the GFS. Nice one at the end of the 00z GFS tonight.
