JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Looks like NW AR hit the jackpot of the area this time around, except for far E AR and SW KS.
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It's been lightly snowing here since yesterday or the day before. Days kind of run together. It's probably some weak lift in the cold air.
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So let's see what happened on the 06z runs. NAM has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave, then 2 other waves of precip, bulked the snow up back into OK compared to previous runs. RGEM also has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave and 2 other waves of precip. It continues to play catch up with amounts. GFS was farther south with the precip shield on the first storm, and the second storm's precip shield was farther west.
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Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm.
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That's for both systems though, not just the first one.
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00z Euro interacting with the lead wave more out to 54 hours. We'll see how this goes.... EDIT: Bit farther north this run. No big surprises.
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Yeah it was. Bumped up totals up there around KC by a bit.
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A west trend on the second storm would be nice for a few runs. Amazing couple of storms for this area.
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Looks like the lead wave is going to be missed by the 00z GFS by a whisker. Early on it was close though. That def needs to be watched.
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Probably the NAM just being awful like usual.
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So the NAM is interesting so far, lol
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Bit of a traffic jam with that wave around SE TX that keeps slowing down,
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Springfield afternoon AFD on snowfall:
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Ok, there's just too many models and model runs per day, I'm losing sleep. Welp...Time for the 18z NAM.
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Take this for example posted this morning, and compared it to same image at Pivotal. https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021112/111/snku_acc.us_c.png
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You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off.
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I think the weatherbell Kuchera map is way overdone. I'm not sure why it is always so much higher than the one at pivotal weather.
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No, and I'm not sure. It just digs farther south this run. The system after that will probably be farther south as well.
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Through 84, def a south shift on the 12z Euro.
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No big surprises in the 12z UKMET either.
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lol. Enjoy your 43" of snow.
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12z GFS V16 ups the amounts with the first system. EDIT: Watch it beat the 06z map posted above, hahah
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12z GEM did take a step in the right direction, still not exciting to look at but it's improved.
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The main failure point would be a weaker wave that doesn't take on a neutral/neg tilt. If this is just a positive open trough, then that wouldn't be good for big snow totals.
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I was sweating that one. Still a lot to be concerned about as far as the heavier amounts goes.
