JoMo
-
Posts
9,056 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by JoMo
-
The grass is almost covered, but it was already 3/4 covered by the last 2 days of flurries.
-
A bit, but it's not as impressive and it tracks farther south, but it tosses some light stuff back our way.
-
That's with the 2nd system added in I believe.
-
Tulsa updated, chopped totals by about an inch, says SE OK and W AR expected to get the most.
-
Yeah, if that happens, it snows in the area through much of tomorrow.
-
Last nights model runs were all good "thumps" here before things went downhill until the main system comes through this afternoon. Most of the precip came from that initial round, but that's underperformed so amounts will probably be adjusted downward unless something like the 12z NAM happens.
-
This initial band is really underperforming here, seems to have taken awhile to saturate. Here's to hoping the 12z NAM is correct, lol
-
So, about the 12z NAM... It's actually wrapping the system up. Probably just a NAM thing though.
-
Finally snowing. Flakes the size of raindrops, actually I think raindrops might be bigger. Wind blown and foggyish out there.
-
00z GFS still trending downward in the QPF department in OK.
-
Storm 2 looking good as well on the 00z NAM, at least the initial part of it.
-
Yes, and yeah it's def farther southeast.
-
00z NAM manages to close the storm off at hour 28. Not going to stay closed for long though.
-
RAP has been wanting to fire up a snowband around OKC by 03z. HRRR waits until 05z-06z.
-
High confidence 4-6" forecast from Springfield.
-
SE AR gets smashed by multiple waves.
-
Globals all look pretty similar as far as QPF goes now. There's disagreement on where any banding sets up but they all have generally 0.3-0.5" in OK. SW MO gets around 0.3-0.4", NW AR gets 0.3-0.4"
-
Nah, Tulsa has gone down: 12z Yesterday: 0.7" 00z last night: 0.5" 12z today: 0.3" OKC: 12z Yesterday: 0.8" 00z last night: 0.7" 12z today: 0.5" Joplin went from 0.5" to 0.3" From 0.4" to 0.3" at Moweatherguys's house.
-
Still trending downward on QPF on the Euro.
-
12z UKMET also shifted SE up this way, which is good cause it had a relatively drier area in NW AR that is now located in central AR.
-
I like to keep my expectations low so it has a better chance of overperforming. Plus, the continuation of the slow SE slide of the QPF is a worry.
-
So out of all the models that have run so far, I'm probably averaging around 4" of 10:1. Tack on an extra inch or two for colder temps, so maybe the upper end of SGF's forecast amounts. If they can identify where any bands set up, then maybe those areas will get put under a Winter Storm Warning as they may exceed 6".
-
Well if the GFS is right, this is just the appetizer with the main course still yet to come with the 2nd system.
-
There's been an overall shift SE with the QPF in pretty much all the models.
-
Why? Is there an actual snow hole over your house?
