JoMo

00z Canadian remains relatively unenthused with the Sunday/Monday system but is enthused by the Tues/Wed system.

Brought it a little more in line with the 12z Euro. The Euro is still a bit farther north than the GFS but the general snow field lines up more.

Yeah, the GFS has 20-25 mph winds across SE KS, much of OK and SW MO during the snow.

Yep, redevelops the trough. Even more snow.

There's one on pivotal. Not sure why the Weatherbell one has higher amounts.

Yeah, it assumes a negative tilt sooner this run. Overall, I like it better (personally) than the 12z and 18z.

Yeah the 00z ICON was neat. Built in neg tilt to the trough, and then basically repeats the storm track again on Tues night/Wed with the next system reloading.

About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic.

I have multiple Monday concerns. System being too far south. System being too weak or too positively tilted. It's not set in stone.

Haha. And then when the snow disappears on the run, it's like having your heart broken? This hobby sucks!

Ok, time for the 18z GFS. Wonder what curveball it's going to throw this run.

Indeed. Not missing one key ingredient (cold air) sure does help. Must be what it's like for folks in ND/SD/MN all winter, pretty much every storm system is going to produce snowfall, it's just how much.

Depends on if you're watching the GFS (often) or Euro inside 120 hours (not quite as often).

Crazy how tanked the -AO is, and also strange how it's been negative since Dec around the start of meteorological winter.

12z Euro was a little different for the Mondayish storm, but that was a really good thing for most of us.

Very 00z Euroesque from last night on the snowfall. Just more. Tulsa/Joplin/NW AR pushing 30" on the Kuchera, lol Even though the timing is different.

Yes. There's a lot of players on the field this upcoming week. Things are going to change. Location is going to depend on a lot of factors.

I like how it has it's own mini-cold front in SE TX in the subfreezing air. 9 on one side, 20 on the other.

12z GFS is probably going to go pretty nuts with the Sunday-Tues system.

12z ICON still keying in on the 2nd system on Sun-Tues or so. 12z GFS continues to lower snow totals for Sat.

00z Canadian going to have the system on Tues/Wed as well. Interesting runs. The GFS solution on Sat was a bit sketchy as it doesn't have much support from any other model. That was always a situation where everything had to come together perfectly and there wasn't much multi-model support for that. The Sunday-Monday system has a greater probability of being at least somewhat more successful assuming everything comes together decently, and then the Wed system may come together if the Sun/Mon system doesn't.

You all get a bunch of snow with the 2nd system on the GFS?

Looks like no Wed system on this run, either, of the 00z GFS. 00z Canadian says nope to the Sat system. EDIT: 00z Canadian is more impressive with the Sun/Mon system.

The only way the Sat system was going to be good for everyone was if there was an interaction between a little northern piece of energy wrapping around the big upper low and that system sliding across the south. As long as there was interaction then the GFS was golden, but this run doesn't show much interaction. The snow across OK appears to be due to 850 temp advection/frontogenesis. The Sunday/Monday system still looks decent and it has much greater potential.

Looks like the 00z GFS continues to lower snow amounts with the Sat system.