JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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It appears it was about 5 degrees too warm here when it initialized. I see SW KS and W OK have an Winter Weather Advisory out for freezing drizzle. Edit: Wichita just issued a WWA as well for freezing drizzle.
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Watch out for the freezing drizzle and icing, as it looks like it's going to be around for the next few days to those that remain below freezing.
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Snowing out. Light snow with decent flakes.
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12z Euro is actually pretty similar temp wise to last nights 00z run until about hour 150 when the Arctic air is much farther south into AR and OK and it stays there. And then the big winter storm around the 15th or so.
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12z UKMET is cold as well, so maybe just a wonky Euro run. We'll see in like 45 mins.
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Yessir. Looks like ICT gets 14.7" on 10:1 and 26.1" via Kuchera through 240 hours on the 12z GFS.
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32" of Kuchera snow (19.6" of 10:1) in Joplin through hour 240 on the 12z GFS. Niiiice.
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Well, the 12z GFS and 12z Canadian aren't following the 00z Euro. Maybe just a wonky run?
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Even more coming after this, but the ratio will be lower as we start to "warm up".
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Yeah the 18z GFS went more with the Euro depiction in the longer range. It'll change, but it's fun.
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18z RDPS (Canadian) looks pretty similar to it's 12z run. Splotchy on the snow amounts except N AR.
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Much of that falls with temps around/above freezing in AR/OK and much of SW MO, but it's still snow. Looks like the 12km NAM has a closed 850/700 MB low this run.
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Well, that was a fun run. It'll change again so not worth looking at specifics. Euro isn't buying the snowfall tomorrow along the MO/AR border like some of the other models though.
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Well, that's a big change on the 12z Euro for sure.... The orientation of the big low, and everything has changed drastically since the 00z run. This had a huge effect on cold air placement, precip placement, etc.
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Going to be a tough forecast since so much of it has to do with how far the cold air advances and the big upper low over Canada and how it controls the flow as well as any additional little pieces of energy that are able to come underneath it. Also, big differences on when it moves out, or if it moves out, past 10 days.
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The Kuchera snow amount #'s are going to be crazy because it has it so cold.
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The 12z Canadian is probably going to look really snowy. SW Flow over all that subfreezing air.
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That's chilly.
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Being right on the freezing line is probably going to be a pain in the butt for a few days with the line moving back and forth with each passing disturbance, until the front gets shoved farther south. Also keep in mind that when it does get cold, the liquid to snow ratios go up, so less QPF is required for greater amounts of snow.
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Somewhat useful for long range trends, but not useful for individual threats.
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12z Euro edged a bit closer to the GFS on the Sat system. It's having more interaction with the cold air, is a little sharper, and now has mid-30's temps with a rain/snow mix in OK where it had 50's on last nights run. Bonkers amount of cold air later on in the run.
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Yeah, it did look great. But, like you said, outlier. I'd still look for more changes though. EDIT: The 3KM NAM actually has a more impressive system than the NAM and puts out some snow.
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12z GFS is a bit farther south with the snow on Saturday thanks to a bit deeper of a wave moving through. EDIT: Some pretty large changes being seen, mainly that things are more zonal and the big upper low over Canada is farther west. Looks like a large overrunning situation setting up on the 11th and 12th.
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Yeah, I think the main thing is the cold, and once it gets that cold, individual systems that are hard to time will come in from the NW and produce snow showers from time to time.
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Already changes on the 12z Euro with the front hanging up farther north than last night and not coming through until Monday?
