JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Already had a dusting of snow here with a band that moved through.
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06z GFS was interesting. I want to get back to the fun pattern. Also apparently the polar vortex split or something? There's news articles about it. We've had a -AO for like ever.
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12z GFS was also a decent run today. Looks like the next interesting system will be next weekend or so. 12z ICON was really fun.
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More interesting 12z GFS run today with systems digging farther west in the long range.
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Anyone end up getting any snow?
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12z Euro is going to do a little something with the weekend/Monday system as well. Kind of rare to see it displace a system by so much within it's typical "good" 120 hour range.
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The weekend/Monday system is a bit more interesting on the GEM this morning for Arkansas as it goes neg tilt as the GEM tries to close off a small upper low over NW KS and SW NE.
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Takes me back to my school years where 0.5 degrees is the difference between a snow day and having to go to school. Waking up to 6" of snow on the first day of Spring when nothing but rain was forecast, and waking up to rain and 33 when snow was forecast.
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12z Euro is a bit farther west so SW MO, NW AR still looks like the sweet spot for rain/snow.
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Boring NW Flow run on the 12z GFS.
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The parallel GFS is basically an updated version in testing. The parallel running right now is V16, which is supposed to be moved over to the operational GFS in Feb of this year.
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Oh, yeah, that's much beefier in OK.
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Well, that changed a bit on the GEM today. Interesting model flip-flops.
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The 12z NAM and 00z Euro specifically produced snowfall across parts of N AR and S MO on Wed night/Thurs. This would be a marginal surface temp situation but it should either be rain or snow as temps look cool enough for one or the other throughout the atmosphere. Edit: The 12z RGEM has it as well, but has been getting farther west with it in time. Main area over SW MO and NW AR.
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And the big change on the 12z GFS in the long range with the -EPO making a return and probably a -AO bringing the Arctic pain. Looks interesting. Just have to sort out the individual storms.
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The Canadian with it's Fujiwhara all over the place with storm systems everywhere. Clear as mud.
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Forgot to answer this the other day. I typically use Tropical Tidbits for a "quick look" at the American/Canadian models and UKMET. I also like their form of navigation with the back and forth arrows and slider. From there, Pivotal Weather has the Euro, although the navigation is a bit more clunky. There's also more detail available when it comes to the HRRR and other models as well. I still use PSU's Ewall for the GFS Ensembles.
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Poured snow for a bit, now back to big flakes. I want a day of accumulating snow like this.
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Big flakes snow globe outside right now
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Yeah, it does look warm. We will see what happens as ensembles are all over the place.
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It was probably like 1-2" here, melty slush. Thankfully the -AO is being cooperative this year. The overall look from last nights Euro Ensemble mean resembles one where storms will undercut the ridging over Canada and the pole and come across our area. The air across Canada will be much warmer than normal, but the air in our area will be colder than normal. The 12z GEFS supports a similar solution... Just need to sort the individual systems out.
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Snow ramping up. Absolutely beautiful outside with the ice and snow on trees.
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So which model do you all think consistently performed the best? I think the RGEM and GEM didn't do that bad of a job.
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As the saying goes, strange things happen under strong upper lows. Saw reports of thundersnow in OK.
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Switched to snow here as well, very light flurries.
