JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Some decent light snow in KS/MO tonight/tomorrow. Overall, still pretty meh.
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KC might get some snow up that way on Sun/Mon?
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Not unless it's backed up by at least one other model.
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Well, usually it's the 'last gasp' that it might happen. But this year, the warming did happen. The vortex did split. Arctic air did dump, on the other side of the world though. The vortex itself is expected to remain weaker and not recover. Typically it takes 2 weeks for the effects to play out. It's possible it has no effect on the weather here.
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Sure is boring. At least we had a "front loaded" winter for most people, for once.
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Speaking of Flizzards... Just had one here a bit ago. Very wintry outside.
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Already had a dusting of snow here with a band that moved through.
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06z GFS was interesting. I want to get back to the fun pattern. Also apparently the polar vortex split or something? There's news articles about it. We've had a -AO for like ever.
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12z GFS was also a decent run today. Looks like the next interesting system will be next weekend or so. 12z ICON was really fun.
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More interesting 12z GFS run today with systems digging farther west in the long range.
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Anyone end up getting any snow?
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12z Euro is going to do a little something with the weekend/Monday system as well. Kind of rare to see it displace a system by so much within it's typical "good" 120 hour range.
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The weekend/Monday system is a bit more interesting on the GEM this morning for Arkansas as it goes neg tilt as the GEM tries to close off a small upper low over NW KS and SW NE.
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Takes me back to my school years where 0.5 degrees is the difference between a snow day and having to go to school. Waking up to 6" of snow on the first day of Spring when nothing but rain was forecast, and waking up to rain and 33 when snow was forecast.
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12z Euro is a bit farther west so SW MO, NW AR still looks like the sweet spot for rain/snow.
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Boring NW Flow run on the 12z GFS.
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The parallel GFS is basically an updated version in testing. The parallel running right now is V16, which is supposed to be moved over to the operational GFS in Feb of this year.
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Oh, yeah, that's much beefier in OK.
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Well, that changed a bit on the GEM today. Interesting model flip-flops.
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The 12z NAM and 00z Euro specifically produced snowfall across parts of N AR and S MO on Wed night/Thurs. This would be a marginal surface temp situation but it should either be rain or snow as temps look cool enough for one or the other throughout the atmosphere. Edit: The 12z RGEM has it as well, but has been getting farther west with it in time. Main area over SW MO and NW AR.
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And the big change on the 12z GFS in the long range with the -EPO making a return and probably a -AO bringing the Arctic pain. Looks interesting. Just have to sort out the individual storms.
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The Canadian with it's Fujiwhara all over the place with storm systems everywhere. Clear as mud.
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Forgot to answer this the other day. I typically use Tropical Tidbits for a "quick look" at the American/Canadian models and UKMET. I also like their form of navigation with the back and forth arrows and slider. From there, Pivotal Weather has the Euro, although the navigation is a bit more clunky. There's also more detail available when it comes to the HRRR and other models as well. I still use PSU's Ewall for the GFS Ensembles.
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Poured snow for a bit, now back to big flakes. I want a day of accumulating snow like this.
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Big flakes snow globe outside right now
