JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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The main failure point would be a weaker wave that doesn't take on a neutral/neg tilt. If this is just a positive open trough, then that wouldn't be good for big snow totals.
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I was sweating that one. Still a lot to be concerned about as far as the heavier amounts goes.
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A little more nervous on this GFS run because the ICON had a flatter wave.
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No big changes or surprises with the 12z NAM it looks like.
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Wichita ^ Springfield:
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There is indeed.
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System #2 coming on Tues night and Wed. Much more impressive looking so far than the 12z run.
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Good 00z Euro run for the first system. N AR gets some bonus snow this run. Also appears to be a bit colder.
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I'm going to be taking micro-naps in between each panel loading.
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Guess I'll force myself to stay up for the Euro. I think the entire system fits inside the 120 hour "great" range of the Euro tonight.
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They pushed pause just to screw with everyone.
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00z Canadian remains relatively unenthused with the Sunday/Monday system but is enthused by the Tues/Wed system.
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Brought it a little more in line with the 12z Euro. The Euro is still a bit farther north than the GFS but the general snow field lines up more.
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Yeah, the GFS has 20-25 mph winds across SE KS, much of OK and SW MO during the snow.
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Yep, redevelops the trough. Even more snow.
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There's one on pivotal. Not sure why the Weatherbell one has higher amounts.
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Yeah, it assumes a negative tilt sooner this run. Overall, I like it better (personally) than the 12z and 18z.
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Yeah the 00z ICON was neat. Built in neg tilt to the trough, and then basically repeats the storm track again on Tues night/Wed with the next system reloading.
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About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic.
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I have multiple Monday concerns. System being too far south. System being too weak or too positively tilted. It's not set in stone.
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Haha. And then when the snow disappears on the run, it's like having your heart broken? This hobby sucks!
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Ok, time for the 18z GFS. Wonder what curveball it's going to throw this run.
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Indeed. Not missing one key ingredient (cold air) sure does help. Must be what it's like for folks in ND/SD/MN all winter, pretty much every storm system is going to produce snowfall, it's just how much.
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Depends on if you're watching the GFS (often) or Euro inside 120 hours (not quite as often).
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Crazy how tanked the -AO is, and also strange how it's been negative since Dec around the start of meteorological winter.
