JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations.
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18z NAM is really going to wrap it up at the end of the run.
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haha, that little narrow snowband right IMBY. About 9-10" Kuchera before the main show starts.......
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Yeah, that's the thing with Kuchera, it's highly dependent on the model getting the QPF exactly right and the exact temps at the time the precip is falling.
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Pivotal's Kuchera uses the formula. I'm not sure what Weatherbell's uses. In the winter weather tab of the parameter menu on the side, there's a "Kuchera" which shows what the ratio is for that given time on the model. So on the 12z GFS for hour 63 for example, the Kuchera ratio is 15:1 in your area. The 12z NAM is also at 15:1
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Euro is free on pivotalweather now? Generally 0.3-0.4 for your area. https://www.pivotalweather.com/
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Tulsa WSW.. 6-10" for these counties: 5-8" in far NE OK. And now the site is erroring.
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Euro had a little less precip this go 'round in general. Congrats OKC this run. NW AR kind of gets screwed a bit, but overall, accumulating snow for all.
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Looks like tomorrow morning.
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12z UKMET also with the band of snow over NE OK into SW MO. It decreased overall amounts from last night's run for the system as a whole.
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The 15z RAP just finished. It also has that crazy band, although maybe just a bit farther SE?
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12z Canadian drastically increased amounts from last night... Late to the show, Canada... late to the show.... I'm going to set my disappointment threshold to 4" of snow. If I get less than that, I'll be sad, more than that, I'll be ecstatic.
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12z GFS V16 was more generous farther north because it was more neutral/negative tilted and also tracked the core farther west.
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The speed probably has to do with more of a positive tilt to the trough early on, until it starts to tilt neutral/negative.
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12z RGEM is still working on bulking up amounts for what it thinks will happen. 12z ICON has bulked amounts up some. If we're getting snow showers/flurries/light snow for what little lift is available out there now. One would imagine sustained lift and SW flow with an approaching system would generate a more persistent shield of snow without any breaks?
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FWIW, the 12z HRRR breaks precip out in OK at the end of it's run. Neat looking band from around Tulsa to Joplin.
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Looks like NW AR hit the jackpot of the area this time around, except for far E AR and SW KS.
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It's been lightly snowing here since yesterday or the day before. Days kind of run together. It's probably some weak lift in the cold air.
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So let's see what happened on the 06z runs. NAM has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave, then 2 other waves of precip, bulked the snow up back into OK compared to previous runs. RGEM also has 3 waves of precip starting with the lead wave and 2 other waves of precip. It continues to play catch up with amounts. GFS was farther south with the precip shield on the first storm, and the second storm's precip shield was farther west.
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Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm.
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That's for both systems though, not just the first one.
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00z Euro interacting with the lead wave more out to 54 hours. We'll see how this goes.... EDIT: Bit farther north this run. No big surprises.
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Yeah it was. Bumped up totals up there around KC by a bit.
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A west trend on the second storm would be nice for a few runs. Amazing couple of storms for this area.
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Looks like the lead wave is going to be missed by the 00z GFS by a whisker. Early on it was close though. That def needs to be watched.
