JoMo

Oh, I'm sure it'll change. I guess the main theme coming out of this is be prepared for bone chilling cold.

Brrrrrr on the 12z GFS

00z Canadian has a balmy -45 (air temp) in NW Minnesota next Wed morning. Wind chill -64. Nuts

The 00z ICON continues to become more impressive on the system on Sat bringing the Arctic front.

I'd be down for that. So many of our snowstorms here are over within like 12 hours. May never experience anything like this ever again though.

One thing to watch will be the location of precip on the system coming through this Sat or so. 12z Euro is much more impressive and would give N KS and N KS/C and N MO a decent snowfall. The 12 UKMET is even a bit farther south with the snow in KS/MO The Euro also has something trying to slip in under the large upper low taking up residence across S Canada but it's not as impressive as the 12z GFS at generating precip. Looks really interesting after 240 on the Euro this run as arctic air is deep and in place with SW flow developing. Oh well, it'll change next run anyway.

12z GFS is going with more of a zonal-NW type flow. Weak system/disturbance works in under that for a mix/snow on Tues/Wed. Actually a decent long duration event, of ice and snow for much of us, subject to changing a few dozen times. Very cold temps because of the snowpack it lays down. The 12z Canadian says *yawn*.... so the Euro will probably follow that.

And just like that the models change.

Yeah, has a similar look. Everything still pretty much hinges on what happens to the cutoff. Notoriously hard to predict.

Yeah, early next week all depends on what happens to the cutoff seen here off the CA coast. Another 'everything has to go right' type of situation that will change 50 times.

Well, cold is coming.... Next big mystery is when that cutoff low spinning off the coast of CA kicks out.

Yeah La Nina years are typically more active but it's whatever. All I know is it's cold in the underground shelter this time of year. Lack of spiders though. Edit: Wish I was dealing with heavy snow!

First tornado warning of the year for me.

This is highly dependent on the system shown here over SO CAL at 108 not getting squashed. Energy dives in behind it and forces it to turn negative and closes off for a bit after this before it falls apart. The 12z Canadian squashes it and misses it, which simply leads to some light rain/flurries for the most part.

12z GFS is going to be amazing as well. The 500 MB pattern on the 00z, 06z and 12z GFS are all different timing wise but they all come to a similar solution.

00z Euro came south as well. Not as crazy looking though. 06z GFS is just nuts with temps in the negatives after the storm.

What a change on the 18 and 00z gfs.

Looks like the 12z GFS is back to bringing the Arctic down in the longer range, quicker this run. Next interesting system for us appears to be around Feb 4th-6th depending on a lot of factors. Interesting to see both the 12z GFS and 12z GEM with the arctic air this time.

Woke up to a decent snow at 6 AM, was coming down quite nicely. Looks like about an inch out there, first time it's accumulated an inch all winter without melting off, roads are covered.

Some decent light snow in KS/MO tonight/tomorrow. Overall, still pretty meh.

KC might get some snow up that way on Sun/Mon?

Not unless it's backed up by at least one other model.

Well, usually it's the 'last gasp' that it might happen. But this year, the warming did happen. The vortex did split. Arctic air did dump, on the other side of the world though. The vortex itself is expected to remain weaker and not recover. Typically it takes 2 weeks for the effects to play out. It's possible it has no effect on the weather here.

Sure is boring. At least we had a "front loaded" winter for most people, for once.

Speaking of Flizzards... Just had one here a bit ago. Very wintry outside.