JoMo

2" of sympathy snowfall around these parts with that little swirl that breaks out Fri night. Looking at all this energy flying around on the models though, nice to see it at continuing to at least be active. I remember a few years back, it was pretty barren.

At this rate, it may end up west of you...

Euro isn't too different from it's 12z run despite having a weaker surface low.

That 00z ICON though....

Yeah, I was hoping we would all see some snow, but it looks like a lot of freezing rain for someone.

Both up there north of KC. Lot of freezing rain and a decent amount of snow.

Well the 18z ICON was back farther east and at least a bit cooler at the surface. Looks like someone is going to get a ton of ice in KS into MO if it's right.

Ah, 34 and rain. Delightful. Wichita and KC gonna get nailed. I like the pity streak of snow Fri night into Sat though.

H72 it looks like it's going to be slower or farther west though. The kicker system is closer to it.

I like that little sliver of snowfall running through my backyard there. Probably 2" in the back and a 1/2" in the front.

The 384 hour GFS is looking good! Although it's probably going to end up in Montana before all is said and done.

Sleet and freezing rain storm on the canadian.

Well, that was fun, next... lol

The 12z ICON wins for farthest west I think, wow.

Temps are really concerning, not just surface temps but 850 MB temps are pretty toasty.

Well, that was a warmer run and farther west as well on the Euro. Suspect it may have to do with the strength of the upstream "kicker" system digging into the SW and how it influences how wrapped up the main storm system gets. Variety of model solutions still on the table it looks like.

Quite the ice storm on the 00z GEM for eastern Arkansas this run. Not as much snow though.

Icon is farther west it looks but that's a ton of precip rising into subfreezing surface air.

12z gfs ensembles still show a variety of solutions. Not locked in yet.

12z Canadian is east of last nights run. Gonna have to see if the Euro shifts a bit east as well. I like looking at the Canadian as a preview to the Euro since I think they use the same initialization scheme?

The northern piece of energy is currently over NW Canada and the southern piece of energy is still off the west coast and won't be over land until tomorrow.

The 12z NAM had the stronger northern system, while the 12z GFS pushes it off to the east. Temps become problematic though until support arrives from the west from the upstream trough.

Well, the Canadian and Euro were fun tonight.

00z Euro should go boom. The northern stream system speeds off to the east leaving the southern system there to close off as energy digs into it's backside.

The difference between the 12z Canadian and Euro appears to be what it does with a piece of energy sliding down from the north. At hour 96 it's located over WY on the GEM and SD on the Euro. The Euro closes it off, while the GEM drives this piece of energy south and it gets absorbed into the trough. From there we get the closed low solution it shows with the ice and snow. The Euro closes something off around the same place as the GEM at 126 (southern OK) but then it's never really allowed to develop because of the northern energy it keeps around. I'm sure the Euro ensemble members that have snow are probably developing the more southern low.