JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Stark difference between the 06z GFS and 00z Euro last night for temps on Christmas. Highs in the teens and 20's vs highs in the 40's and 50's
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On the 18z GFS, the cold hits on the 24th but quickly pushes off to the east. Still cold on Christmas morning.
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And Christmas Eve storm is back on the GFS.
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Had a sugary snow here in Joplin for a few hours, dusting everything.
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Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr.
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Up to 2" as far east as Tulsa tomorrow.
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It will probably warm up, but Christmas is still a little uncertain. The timing of fronts and systems aren't really staying consistent and the models aren't agreeing at this point.
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The Tues system is actually a decent system as it comes out of the Rockies, which provides snow for the western half of OK. The problem is that it's weakening and opening up as energy digs into the backside of it. Same system should give portions of the northeast a nice snowfall.
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Tues doesn't look like too much. The system looks moisture starved on all the models so outside of the western half of OK and portions of KS, it doesn't look like more than light snow.
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Beautiful snowfall, no accumulation due to warm temps and low rate here.
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Winter Storm Warning for Tulsa and areas in the band.
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Light snow in Joplin. Snow before Christmas is on the wishlist every year. Tues system will provide some more snow in some places, and then all eyes on Christmas Eve.
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Snowchasers streaming from places like Tulsa and Woodward. https://livestormchasing.com/map
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The dreaded "sleet" word...
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Winter Storm Watch issued for NW Arkansas now. 3-6"
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The initial burst will be very heavy from the looks of the modeling. Convective in nature as well.
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Looks like 3-5" falls out of the sky. No idea about accumulation due to temps.
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12z Euro was a smidge more dry and a smidge farther south.
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Other than the NW part? They had one on like Dec 1st. And probably one back in Oct for the freezing rain storm.
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Majority of 12z models so far seem to be targeting NE OK, NW AR for the heaviest amounts. Canadian is a little more meh. Tues system still has considerable spread. Good seeing the Christmas Eve system trying to show back up on the 12z GFS.
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The Tues system has very broad lift over much of the central US for a longer period and is colder. We'll have to see how that one comes together as well.
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Small southward shift in the 12z NAM this morning and a little drier overall. Still a wallop for NE OK and NW AR.
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Still a pretty considerable spread on the Tuesday system though.
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Looks like it. Looks a bit cooler as well.
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Interesting, but I don't really trust the NAM.
