JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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And you wind up with weird snowfall maps like this....
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I'm really worried about temps. 850's came in a bit warmer. Also surface temps are going to hang above freezing, there appears to be a cold enough layer at 925 MB though, assuming the 850's stay below freezing (down there) This is also based on the lift being shown on the NAM panning out. Temps drop a few degrees under the precip shield. If the precip shield is weaker due to not as much lift/dynamic cooling than the model anticipates then it could wind up as more of a rain/snow mix, and maybe rain.
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Lot of snow falling out of the sky on the 12z NAM. E OK and NW AR are the big winners.
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haha, well just remember that the snow in Nebraska tomorrow was supposed to be in E KS and it crept north. Of course, knowing our luck, the next round will creep south.
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Tulsa AFD this afternoon:
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Christmas Eve though...
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According to the 12z GFS....Surface is very marginal. 925 MB temps are around 0 to -2 C with surface temps hovering around freezing or just above. 850's and 700's look good so no mixed precip issues it looks like. The 12z NAM is colder though with 925 MB temps around -3 or -4 C. So looks like we're going to depend on some 'dynamic cooling' from the lift and precip rates to cool the surface to around freezing.
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Quantity over Quality? I just want snow, doesn't have to stick, just some good mood snow before Christmas, but the marginal temp profile worries me, plus the possibility that it could always trend north as time goes on due to lack of cold air.
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Bit of a shift north on the 12z GFS. Temps are going to be pretty marginal but snow falling is snow falling, especially in the daytime. Edit: Another system with spotty chances for rain/snow on Tues keeps showing up as well.
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Where it does snow with the Sunday system, the surface temps are near/above freezing so there would be minimal impact unless it came down at a heavy enough rate.
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Euro has a bunch of snow in KS this run. All except for the far SE corner that is. Model changes all the time.
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I was too, but unfortunately, it looks like it's all going to come together to most of our NW.
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There's so much energy flying by and everything is so fast that it's tough to get a handle on what's going to happen.
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Yeah, I've been watching it snow there from a couple chasers who are chasing the snow. https://livestormchasing.com/map As close as we get to snow these days....
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And the 06z was like nope, as it cut energy off in the SW. Hopefully some of us get to see some night time flakes tonight, even if it doesn't stick.
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Tomorrow night (Wed Night) I believe.
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Looks like Woodward, OK will probably be the place to be for snow with this system. Looks like my long range fantasy system came together on the 18z GFS.
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This might be interesting long term. Any normal year and I'd be excited to see a southern wave with another wave rapidly diving SE over the Rockies, but man the flow is so fast, it's hard for the models to keep up with these pieces of energy.
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Winter Storm Watch out for Wichita area and NW OK.
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12z GFS found some precip. Maybe a nice rain/snow mix for someone, with a bit more snow on the NW side. 12z GEM is coming in dry. Either way, shouldn't be that big of a deal for many, but considering the snow drought..... it will at least be something.
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Last nights 00z Euro had a big snow storm as well, but it was more in NE OK/SE KS.
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The 00z Euro was a beauty. Too bad it's not 24 hours out so it won't happen, heh
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NYC back up to numbers where they would shut down schools and start more restrictions. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/this-is-our-last-chance-nyc-mayors-pleas-to-stop-2nd-wave-avoid-new-closures-grow-urgent/2714495/
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12z GFS is definitely "busy" looking with a lot of storm systems coming up.
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Wow GFS.
