JoMo
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Both the Euro and Canadian are interesting. The next few runs will be pretty telling.
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Merry Christmas!
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Yeah, I remember one year a big Arctic front dropped through, so cold air was available but the models were showing strong cyclogenesis across Montana or something with a strong approaching system. People were thinking that was crazy because there's no way the cold air could be scoured out that quickly, but the cold air quickly melted away under strong southerly flow. It got up into like the 60's after being in the teens the morning before. Sucks.
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Wouldn't really make a difference, the storm system just wraps up too far west on the GFS. It needs to be more of an open positive tilted trough until it gets south of us, then it can wrap up. Anything else and the warm air is going to probably overwhelm the cold air sitting in place.
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At this rate on the 12z GFS, we may have to watch out for severe weather. Nice Nebraska snow though.
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Well, that didn't really clear anything up. 4 different model runs today, 4 different solutions on the GFS.
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Yeah, southerly flow returns out ahead of the big system because the high pressure across the midwest is sliding off to the east quicker, due to the system in the northeast being faster, which results in the winds turning southerly, sooner. It's not just at the low levels, some kind of southerly flow happens throughout the atmosphere.
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12z Euro was not great unless you live in KS, NW OK and NW MO. Nice 2 ft+ stripe in NE KS And NW MO.
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Canadian gonna do some fujiwhara stuff. Still an interesting timeframe.
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And it was still snowing after that..
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Should be another one after that as well....... It does look interesting around New Years, pending temps which will probably be marginal again.
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No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm.
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Surprise on the 00z Euro. Following the German ICON solution with a more southern system.
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Interesting 12z GEM run this morning. Clips portions of the area on Christmas. Splits ways with the GFS at day 5 or 6.
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Stark difference between the 06z GFS and 00z Euro last night for temps on Christmas. Highs in the teens and 20's vs highs in the 40's and 50's
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On the 18z GFS, the cold hits on the 24th but quickly pushes off to the east. Still cold on Christmas morning.
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And Christmas Eve storm is back on the GFS.
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Had a sugary snow here in Joplin for a few hours, dusting everything.
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Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr.
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Up to 2" as far east as Tulsa tomorrow.
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It will probably warm up, but Christmas is still a little uncertain. The timing of fronts and systems aren't really staying consistent and the models aren't agreeing at this point.
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The Tues system is actually a decent system as it comes out of the Rockies, which provides snow for the western half of OK. The problem is that it's weakening and opening up as energy digs into the backside of it. Same system should give portions of the northeast a nice snowfall.
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Tues doesn't look like too much. The system looks moisture starved on all the models so outside of the western half of OK and portions of KS, it doesn't look like more than light snow.
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Beautiful snowfall, no accumulation due to warm temps and low rate here.
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Winter Storm Warning for Tulsa and areas in the band.
