I bet Doug Heady jumps like this during big snowstorms too. I did the exact same thing last night, though.
https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistDougHeady/videos/2470748913199639/
Not sure, and it's the NAM so I wouldn't worry about it. The exact track of everything is going to weeble-wobble from run to run. I wish it wasn't as narrow, but the system is positive tilted.
Yeah, forecast changed here, winter weather advisory now for accumulating ice. 18z NAM puts out 0.39" of freezing rain here with about 1" in SE KS and W-Central MO. Temp was supposed to get up to 41 today. It's 34....
Not sure when the next one is, but differences between the Euro and GFS. Eventually we should probably get a western ridge and eastern trough again. Probably going to be a nice -EPO. The CFS has nothing but a -EPO look through the month of Feb.
Predictable that the GFS was overdoing moisture back in the cold since the trough didn't have a big negative tilt to it plus there's an extensive squall line out ahead of the system that's going to rob moisture. Looks like some banding is possible and those areas will probably pick up the most. Otherwise it looks like a general 1-3" snowfall.