Blogs

 

NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN CHANGE SIGNALS ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS EASTERN 2/3rds of CONUS

Weather folks love to use the Rocky Mountains and the Continental divide as the spacer between the western CONUS and eastern CONUS.  The NOAM pattern looks to be in full reversal from this past work week to the next few weeks.  The cold situates itself at peak performance in ten to twelve days.  The EURO, EURO ENS, GFS, CMC all show a strong signal towards a large +PNA/-EPO spiking ridge over the rocky mountains and the Canadian Northwest Territories.  This incredible ridge spike will create cro

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

NOV 15-18th Period for Winter Weather! - SNE Weather!

I just want SNE folks to realize and soak up the warmth the next few days, until a second GRT Lakes storm moves through day 3-5 and then brings a powerful cold front through the region.  This should usher in very cold, arctic like air mass into the region and the upper level pattern looks to lock into a +PNA at least through the first few days of Thanksgiving Week!  Stay tuned, a coastal redeveloping clipper could move through the region as well around the 17th/18th.  Stay alert!

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Celtics Legend Tommy Heinsohn Dies at Age 86

As Celtics Nation and the sports world knows, the one player that everyone associates with the Celtics organization for over sixty years has been the one and only Tommy Heinsohn, one of four players ever to be in the hall of fame in Springfield, MA as a player and a coach and as a broadcaster.  Tommy earned eight NBA championships with the Celtics in his nine year NBA career and two more as a Celtics head coach in the 1970s and had spend the final 39 years of his wonderful life as a NBA broadcas

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Pattern this week heads to the other direction, ridging in the East!

Again, the fall season still wants to remain warm across the eastern CONUS.  Right now, the pattern to Wednesday resembles a troughy but zonal pattern aloft where westerlies remain in control with several troughs moving through the region before the region warms significantly as pattern amplifies into a ridging in the East and troughing in the west pattern.  This is supported by the teleconnections across North America of a strong +NAO/-PNA/+AO pattern.  The only semblance towards a more average

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Surprises are abound with a LA Nina driven ENSO and an active northern jet stream

One thing is for certain during an active La Nina winter season, the ENSO while in the mid cold phase between -1 and -2C below normal, the northern branch of the jet stream will be very active from now until the La Nina relaxes towards the beginning of Spring 2021.  This winter should provide a rather volatile change in the three day periods.  We will go through changes of warm and cold air masses and active storm tracks either north or south of the region.  Cape Cod has always been the benchmar

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Snow is showing up in the models!

The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS.  It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic.  The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses.  As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will re

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

OMEGA BLOCK BRINGS DRY WEATHER _ SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

The last few days has brought some major swings in the overall five to ten day forecasts.  A few days ago the ten day was quite wet and crappy, but with the latest data influencing the latest changes, an Omega Blocking pattern has brought a period of amazing weather conditions for the foreseeable future in Southern New England.  Noticed greatly by a trough ridge trough pattern on an upper level map, an Omega block slows weather systems down and stalls them to the west, keeping any weather at hom
 

Lack of Legit Snow comes to an end - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until t
 

**Storm Alert** First Legit Eastern SNE snow threat FEB 10th to 12th, - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week.  Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US.  We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength.  We don't know the presence of enough

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Weekend Storm Threat (Analyzing the 00z and 06z NAM) - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Ingredients for a snow event this weekend - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a col

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Chaos will lead to a SuperStorm! - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Long term pattern, ready to bring superstorms...SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Talking the Next three snow threats - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates:  15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow.  As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box.  Weather forecasting is the same basic idea.  The difference and is a major di

USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF