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Lack of Legit Snow comes to an end - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until t
 

**Storm Alert** First Legit Eastern SNE snow threat FEB 10th to 12th, - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week.  Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US.  We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength.  We don't know the presence of enough

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Weekend Storm Threat (Analyzing the 00z and 06z NAM) - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Ingredients for a snow event this weekend - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a col

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Chaos will lead to a SuperStorm! - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the

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Long term pattern, ready to bring superstorms...SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the

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Talking the Next three snow threats - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates:  15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow.  As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box.  Weather forecasting is the same basic idea.  The difference and is a major di

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

**Alert! Alert! Alert!** - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

**Alert Level - Awareness!** Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness.  Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period.  January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period.  We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle. That is all for
 

Emerging single for a moderate sized Snow event - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE.  Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.** A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US.  Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source.  I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
 

A Pattern We have seen before - SNE Weather Pattern Update!

The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period.  Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year.  The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period.  Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

Pattern the Next Two Weeks for the CONUS and how it impacts home - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect.  In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather.  The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides.  What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm.  Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overal

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

"The Awakening Dawn" - A glimpse into the future!

On day in 2005, the weather was at the most volatile point all season, October, month of the great Hurricane Wilma 2005.  I had a dream that would spark a journey I have been on for the last fourteen years.  In this dream, I saw the catastrophic end to humanity.  Whether or not it was a premonition or just simply a basic dream for a developing weather enthusiast in his adolescence, I don't know, but it sparked a creative monster within myself.  Struggling with family problems that latter turned

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands.  AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops.  If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heav

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

 

12z Model Update - SNE WEATHER UPDATE (Cape Cod could see a big surprise Tuesday?)

The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.  The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow.  Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction.  This is very poor for

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USCAPEWEATHERAF