Update August 12th, 2019: my sports predictions are coming for September 5th, 2019 I will post on my youtube channel, PSUWeatherNewbie, and the offtopic sports threads for the Patriots and the Celtics 2019-2020 season.
I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.
The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball. They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record. Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better. Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams. He actually did it several times.
My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by. Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August. Now, why is this important? During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape. This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind. Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through. As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts. They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph. What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere. These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers. Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast. Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA. The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground. A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient. This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling. This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone. Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard. There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street. The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house. These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half. Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation. Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half. Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area. Half the trees were completely snapped in half. The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here. It was chaos. The emotions were just filled with utter sadness. Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable. We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house. Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement. It was the scariest moment of my life. Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon. Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far. Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.
I will post everything I am going to argue for a Patriots perfect season including winning the Super Bowl, and why with a certain player or two, the Patriots could have the most dynamic WR set in the NFL and perhaps Brady's career, even better than the Moss led corps of 2007. Wednesday will be the latest to this post.
Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place. The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through. Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them. 94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas. People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system. Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning. Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.
Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night. Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues. Could become significant if given time over water.
A lot of signs point to a potentially damaging wind event, right now parameters are not as supportive as we want, but models show storm potential as a monster low makes it path across ME into the Gulf of Maine. Could be quite strong winds in convection and then the backside of the low could deliver very cold air and winds off the ocean. Also, our prayers go out for Jefferson City, MO residents and everyone who has gone through these tornadoes yesterday and this morning.
I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world. I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first. I have a partner now. Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out. We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series. Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still working titles, and are subject to change. 'The Awakening Dawn" 9Book one), "From Dawn Until Dusk" (Book Two), "The End of the Awakening" (Book Three). These novels will continue the story of the main characters, Jack Irving (25 year old hurricane specialist), Abi Acheson/Irving (Jack's fiancee in book one and wife throughout the rest of the story), Michael Reed (Jack's best friend since Kindergarten) and Marie Givens (Mike's girlfriend and wife later on and bosses daughter in book one). Secondary characters who appear in every novel: Jack's family members: Daniel Irving (Brother), Sarah Irving (sister, unsure her future), Siobhan Irving (Jack's youngest sister), Edith Irving (Jack's mother, dies from pancreatic cancer in book one), William Irving (Jack's father, lives in all three books). Other characters include Abi's best friend and secretary, USAF Reserve 53rd WRS hurricane hunter pilot Major/Lt. Colonel Brooks Carter and his crew. And others...
Next project and potential big-time franchise novel/movie series...
'The Terroristic Behavior Series"
This is a story about a duel between a CIA trained assassin turned into terror suspect who terrorizes the US's world interests, many mysteries exist and are unraveled as the story goes on as former terror expert and ghost hunter, FBI special agent Sebastian Jenkins who is recently divorced and has three children. He is hired by the FBI again or transferred to GHOST PROTOCOL. He is hunting a person the government of the US considers a ghost. The story lasts three novels and shows potential to become a big-time movie franchise. Characters include Carter Avril - ghost, and Sebastian Jenkins Ghosthunter. Still a work in progress in terms of character development and story development.
There are other individual projects considered as well that could provide to the workload. This is for the far future to determine.
James Warren Nichols/Kyle Bass
12z runs have come in and I have gone ahead and issued my first snowfall map. 12" could be the maximum for SE Plymouth to the Canal region as NE winds enhance the snowfall with mixing issues across the Islands.
00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night. This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark. Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward. Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.
00z model suite for Monday, February 25th, 2019 shows increasing confidence in a forecasted snowstorm for midweek in Southern New England, widespread 3-6" potentially with 6"+ in bands. Stay tuned for further updates later today.
While category five hurrianes are currently categorized at catastrohic (category five hurricane status these days) 156mph winds, these hurricanes develop with 85F+ wate temperatures, what if unforeseen circumstances bring these water temperatures to 95-97F, just a ten to twelve degree warming could lead to hurricanes with winds over 250 miles per hour. This is trule a catastrophic level. My novel includes the intensity of these monsters in the hurricane seasons of 2029 and 2030. Could geolgical events in the Atlantic Ocean lead to such destructive hurricanes in the future? Why not?
This is the final map for this storm tomorrow, snow begins after 11 pm west zones in CT, 12 am for RI and 1 am for Eastern MA. Heavy snow will overspread the area within an hour of starting, bands look to penetrate the Southern Coast of New England, with perhaps potentially 1"/hour rates for a time. Snowfall map represents the heaviest QPF and snow outputs. I think while I am aggressive, I think this will pay off.
Snow is beginning just on either side of midnight tonight into the rest of the day on Monday. Models have upped the moisture produced by our secondary low with a max of around .50 to 1.00" of QPF from CHH westward to Plymouth, MA. Winter Storm Watches issued for SE MA, RI and Cape Cod. The Islands of Block Island, RI, Martha's Vineyard, MA and Nantucket, MA will see 2-4" with potential for rain mix with the snow. Widespread Southern New England amounts of around 3-6", 6-12" the closer you are to the eastern MA coastline. Areas towards the I90 pike area southward could see upwards of 4-6" while north of the pike see 2-4". Areas west of Springfield, MA could see enhancement from the Berkshires as easterly winds pile up against the mountains. This area could see bands of 4-6". The Map does not reflect this threat at the moment. Secondary low explodes as it moves east of ACK. Could bring surface winds gusting to 30mph as the storm pulls away to the east on Monday afternoon.