Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range. This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November. Deep cold is on tap for after the next week. Stay Tuned! Winter is still around the corner.
Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th. In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night. Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.
The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters. Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well. A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W. Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.
Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon. Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay. Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed. Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest. Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F. Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebo
Attached is the guidelines for the different threat levels I will put in place for each snow event in the future from end of November through the first week of April 2020.
Snowfall amounts and impacts forecast technique.docx
Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us. New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter. As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world. As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly. As win
Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions. Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England. Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like. Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter. This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England. Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location. Coastal plain of New England co
Predictions made by James W Nichols I outlay the potential standings and records and playoff matchups and outcomes. Questions?? I would love to debate them. It is the attached file.
The 2019 NFL Season Predictions.docx
Yes, unfortunately, Dorian is now a hurricane. Models showing a potentially catastrophic hurricane heading towards the south-central east coast of Florida landfall in the next 4 to 5 days. Stay tuned as the models show an extremely dangerous hurricane making the approach to the Space Coast of Florida.
Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA. The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside. With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans. After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list. This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3"
My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019. We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020. Fingers crossed!
As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th. I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned!
Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues. Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mas
Update August 12th, 2019: my sports predictions are coming for September 5th, 2019 I will post on my youtube channel, PSUWeatherNewbie, and the offtopic sports threads for the Patriots and the Celtics 2019-2020 season.
I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather. I will have the predictions done before September 1st.
The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball. They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record. Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better. Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bog
My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by. Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August. Now, why is this important? During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this tim
I will post everything I am going to argue for a Patriots perfect season including winning the Super Bowl, and why with a certain player or two, the Patriots could have the most dynamic WR set in the NFL and perhaps Brady's career, even better than the Moss led corps of 2007. Wednesday will be the latest to this post.