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Since Pattern has changed, thoughts on first snowfall?

Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lot of data coming in.  WIll update you on the latest when it comes imminent.




With SSTs way above average in the NW Atlantic Ocean, severe weather seems likely this weekend

Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.

Weak El Nino winter outlook

This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream.  While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact. An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas.  It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials.  All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.

Could this NBA offseason be the best ever?

After the story of Kawhi Leonard now wanting out of San Antonio Spurs could change the landscape of the NBA this season.  He could go to Lakers and create a superteam with them bringing in Lebron James and Paul George.  However, the Boston Celtics will be in the mix for the top 2 player and NBA finals MVP and they could offer the Spurs a much better package of young talent and picks.  He could bring the Celtics a title next year with Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard and Al Horford in the lineup.  Will Danny Ainge be willing to part ways with a few bench players, including potential NBA star in Jaylen Brown; as a Jaylen Brown fan personally, I would trade Jaylen Brown and do a sign and trade with Smart for Kawhi Leonard including the best future pick the Celtics have in their arsenal, the Sacramento Kings pick in 2019.  Thoughts in the comments section?

Novel is finished! The Awakening Dawn is ready for peer review

My latest draft of the Awakening Dawn is ready to be read by anyone willing to read the novel.  It is 291 pages long and 97,000 words deep.  It is about the precursor hurricane landfalls before the end of the world starts.  It is the first in what I hope is a series of novels, first one is called, "Awakening Dawn", the second one is called "Until Dawn, and Until Dusk", then the third novel in the series is "End of the Dusk"

The barometer helps predict the weather

"We live at the bottom of an ocean of the air element, which, through an unquestionable experience, is shown to have weight." These words were pronounced by the Italian physicist and mathematician evangelist Torricelli, after the manufacture of the first barometer in the 17th century. Evangelist Torricelli experimented with layered glass tubes and various liquids of different densities until he used Mercury, with which he managed to balance atmospheric pressure. Torricelli's experiment reached a great popularity, but it was the subject of fierce controversy. Blaise Pascal studied the experiment of Torricelli and concluded that the barometric space was empty, which confirmed the atmospheric pressure as a cause of the balance of the mercury column and his study contributed to the establishment, on the part of Pascal, from the beginning of Pascal. According to Pascal's principle, the pressure exerted on a liquid is transmitted equally in all directions. At the initiative of Pascal the barometer was started to be used in meteorological observations. The English physicist Robert Boyle, baptized the barometer and with him discovered the law on the gases that bears his name. During the eighteenth century the accuracy of the barometers was increased by adding more precise scales with verniers and the consideration of the errors that caused the capillarity and temperature. At the end of that century they were already used for the measure of heights.

I prefer use this app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ah.creativecodeapps.tiempo&hl=en but you have here more types of barometer Types of Barometer
Although there is a wide variety of tools used by meteorologists to measure and predict climate cycles, for example weather vanes measure wind direction and strength and thermometers indicate ambient air temperature, barometers (which They measure atmospheric pressure) are one of the most important instruments in the weather forecast because they are very clear the types of climate that bring with them high and low pressure systems. A barometer is used to measure air pressure, with atmospheric pressure being the weight per unit of surface exercised by the atmosphere. Changes in air pressure can precede a big storm. Barometers tend to fall if the rainy weather is imminent and rising if the climate will soon clear, which means that high pressures correspond to regions without precipitation, while low pressures are indicators of storm regions. The first barometers were formed by a column of liquid enclosed in a tube whose upper part is closed. The weight of the fluid column compensates exactly for the weight of the atmosphere. The unit of measurement of the atmospheric pressure that usually mark the barometers is called hectopascal, of abbreviation HPa. This unit means: Hecto which is equal to a hundred and pascals which is the unit of measurement of pressure. The mercury barometer, the most common and used of the barometers, often determines the measuring unit, which is referred to as "inches of mercury" or "millimeters of Mercury" (abbreviated MmHg method). A pressure of 1 mmHg is 1 Torr (per Torricelli). The mercury barometer was invented by Torricelli in 1643. A mercury barometer consists of a glass tube about 850 mm high, closed by the upper end and opened by the lower. The tube is filled with mercury, inverted and the open end placed in a container full of the same liquid. If it is uncovered, it will be seen that the tube mercury descends a few centimeters, leaving at the top an empty space (barometric chamber or Torricelli vacuum). Thus, the mercury barometer indicates the atmospheric pressure directly by the height of the Mercury column. Barometer 01 Aneroid Barometer is a barometer that does not use mercury. It indicates the variations of atmospheric pressure by the more or less large deformations that the one makes experiment to a metallic box of very elastic walls in whose interior the most absolute emptiness has been made. It is graduated by comparison with a Mercury barometer, but its indications are more and more inaccurate because of the variation of elasticity of the plastic spring. It was invented by Lucien Vidie in 1843. Barometric altimeters are used in aviation and are essentially barometers with the scale converted to meters or feet of altitude, while the Fortin barometer is composed of a Torricelliano tube that is introduced into the mercury contained in a bucket of Glass in tubular form, provided with a base of Gamo leather whose shape can be modified by means of a screw that rests on the tip of a small ivory cone. That's how you keep a fixed level. This barometer is completely covered with brass, except for two vertical slots next to the tube that allow to see the mercury level. In the front slot there is a graduation in millimeters and a vernier for the reading of tenths of millimeters. In the posterior one there is a small mirror to facilitate the visibility of the level. A thermometer is attached to the barometer. Fortin barometers are used in scientific laboratories for high precision measurements and readings should be corrected taking into account all factors that may influence them, such as ambient temperature, gravity acceleration of place and the vapor tension of Mercury, among others.




JWN Productions Update!

My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point.  It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions.  It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products.  I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects.  If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise.  Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork.  I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world.  I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.

March 12-14th Nor'easter Snow Map Final

Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area.  Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through.  Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA.  My snowfall map is for New England only

March 12-14th Nor'easter Blizzard Snow Map Number One

Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.

Massive Blizzard for Cape Cod becoming more and more likely after 12z runs March 10th

A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain.  Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models.  2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!