USCAPEWEATHERAF

I think she can peak between 155-175mph

Hurricane Force flight level winds found with Florence, with 60 knot winds with a pressure of 989mb, she is probably as low as 981mb

That GFS run would have Florence peaking at closest approach to NC Outer Banks. Category five is possible, but I would say a peak of 155mph is likely.

Scott I see a peak of 155mph

Florence is quickly organizing into beast mode.

It already has insulated itself with tremendous deep convective banding surrounding the core that is developing hot towers now. A good blog post last night Ray. Very informative.

Florence is putting on a show. No more dry air intrusions.

Updated the thread

you understand my position, you just like arguing Ray.

The only point I wanted to make, is the impossible is always possible in life, without that belief, nothing in life is ever interesting enough.

And plus I don't even know where I got on the side of the hurricane making landfall, I don't even think that will happen, just because I mentioned her peaking at possible 175mph, because a run of guidance suggests that is the potential and somehow I am on board with the category five hurricane making landfall on New England. I do not support that at all. I think we will know a lot more by Sunday.

Do you hear yourself? 1950s had several major hurricanes strike the SNE coast, and just because the previous odds say 0% doesn't mean the next one can't, you of all people should understand that. Before Jan 2005, Cape Cod was thought to have maybe a few 30" snowstorms in the past, and in the last ten years, we have had 2 such storms. So do not tell me the impossible is never possible. We also got the most severe wind storm of our lifetime on Cape Cod in DEC of 2005, where unconfirmed reports of 120mph wind gusts hit the Orleans, Brewster and Eastham towns of the Outer Cape. While yes in your eyes rarity is a great form of identity, the impossible is always possible. There is only one such thing that is certain in life and that is death.

Not when climo has indeed periods of time where multiple hurricanes of Category three or higher strength have made landfall on New England. CLIMO doesn't favor one over the other. Odds sure, the odds are low that one will indeed maintain intensity all the way to New England, but when models are clearly showing a pattern evolving showing a mighty 500mb ridge over NE CONUS into the NW Atlantic Ocean, over Florence this will head into the coast at some point and there is no troughs coming to the rescue to cause shear. Internal processes don't hinder peaks in intensity, they only occur once the hurricane has reached its fullest potential intensity. When the SHIPS guidance and the GFS guidance both show a major hurricane, perhaps as high as category five intensity it will at least become a spectacle before it meets its fate.

Then you wouldn't be objective going the opposite direction of an over hyper. I rather get people prepared for the worst case scenario and be ready for it when it does actually happen because when the next storm misses it heightens the odds the next one will eventually make landfall and a terror like an attack will occur on the US East Coast. I rather take the prepared approach than the one that doubts nature's possibilities.

Ok i know i do sometimes, but the conditions ahead of it are quite favorable the SHIPS guidance Ginxy showed above these latest posts show shear dropping below 5 knots