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  • Birthday 08/25/1989

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  1. Mahk, I don't think global warming is leading to a big surge in oceanic temperatures, honestly it could balance out the heat flux of tropical cyclones. ENSO conditions have a lot to do with the natural progression of our climate over the US, we know that much. The North Atlantic heat flux machines has a lot to do with our patterns across the US as it allows either blocking or a progressive regime to take place during the whole year. Global warming could be quantified by the global temperatures sure in the air, but honestly, I don't think the oceans have felt that heat flux yet, I think by and large, the ocean heats slower and cools slower than the atmosphere, so it makes sense that the delayed reactions the ocean is feeling is not due to global warming, but is just the natural process of life on earth. you will not be surprised the day the ocean feels the global warming signals. That is my humbled and amateur opinion, I would allow the experts to weigh in though, I will be fond of their output on the subject matter.
  2. I just pointed it out, not saying it will even happen
  3. Euro is on track for a pattern changing storm centered over Cape Hatteras at 994mb day 10.
  4. Will is right, the January 05 Blizzard was a "Blizzard" in its truest nature. Even on Cape Cod we had winds gusting between 75-85mph, on Nantucket the winds gusted to 86mph and the island lost power, its quite possible that Nantucket experienced Category two hurricane force wind gusts over 95mph as they couldn't confirm with their power out. The blizzard was the worst wind/snow combination I have ever experienced. The fun thing is I remember making and drooling on snow maps I made during high school classes and showed my friends what was coming for that weekend. The awesome thing is, I was right for once, and accuweather was right in hyping the storm. Man that was a fun winter, 98" of snow.
  5. 12z EURO day 10 has a monster EC storm developing.
  6. I see the teleconnections favor a positive PNA for most of this end of month period, with a transitioning NAO and an eventual Negative phase of the AO as the polar vortex comes on our side of the North Pole region.
  7. 12z GEFS mean shows the Greenland block quite well
  8. 12z EPS showing what the other model guidance is showing in the day 10 time frame, a turn towards cold and stormy regime with troughing in the Eastern US. Still not much in the way of Atlantic Ridging over Greenland, its there, but not strong yet
  9. Yes according to the CPC that winter of 2010-2011 which even Cape Cod did extremely well on, that was a moderate La Nina that was followed up by another moderate La Nina, according to the CPC ENSO conditions this past winter were moderate La Nina and this year is following that trend, so it was actually 2011-2012 that was more similar to this upcoming winter than the first year.
  10. This winter could be a lot like the 2011-2012 winter, stay tuned for further updates.
  11. The last moderate to strong La Nina was in 2011-2012 winter, Will how did we do in that season?
  12. With a moderate La Nina in place, we could be looking at prolonged miller B formation storms impacting SNE. We could see a massive Gulf of Maine low tracks and then further into the season we could see the storms track south of BM.
  13. I'm excited for a cold November, models are showing we might be heading for a sustained, +PNA, -NAO and -AO phase, maybe not -AO sustained by a phasing by -AO phase. The most important part is a -NAO/+PNA pattern is evolving last week of October and first week of Nov or longer
  14. Looking at the latest 12z model data, it appears that the last week of October through the Halloween holiday and into the first few weeks of November the Teleconnections will favor trough in the east and ridge in the west type pattern where sustained cold will be possible in New England north of 40N latitude. This could mean a stormy November in which cold air sinks into the Oh Valley centered in this region the trough will allow storms to come up the East Coast to the benchmark and give us precipitation perhaps in the form of snow or rain. GEFS. GFS, EURO, CMC all favor a long range pattern that is conducive for snow and cold, just how cold will be determined by a negative anomaly in the Arctic Oscillation cycle. This negative anomaly should allow a polar vortex or a vortex from the arctic circle to focus a cold air phase into the Northeastern US by November 1st. This should be a fun period folks, especially if blocking develops over the Atlantic Ocean.
  15. GFS shows a huge cold outbreak coming in the end of October