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DanLarsen34

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    Madison, WI

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  1. Not anymore. We’ve got a moderate risk coming shortly.
  2. Looks like today has real potential. The new outlook mentions the potential for several long-track, discrete cells that could produce significant tornadoes. Considerable spread remains, though, between models in terms of the exact details regarding convective evolution. Regardless, high-end damaging winds and some strong tornadoes will likely occur today.
  3. Latest SPC mesoscale discussion mentions the potential for significant tornadoes to continue over the next 1-3 hours. Every one of these storms is rotating, even the non-warned ones
  4. There’s two warnings at the moment, but the southern embedded cell near Damascus, GA looks well organized and could pose a significant tornado and wind threat as it approaches Newton in the next 30-45 minutes.
  5. I know the forum is quiet, but we’ve had a few significant tornadoes already this morning. This was near Blakely not long ago.
  6. Sounds like the Brent-Centerville tornado will end up at EF-3 for a rating. We got so incredibly lucky that this tornado tracked where it did. I have no doubt that if this thing had occurred just a few miles further north, we would have seen EF-4 to EF-5 damage. As bad as last week was, it could have been even worse.
  7. The storm approaching Memphis from the south is looking extremely dangerous.
  8. This is a legit regional tornado outbreak in progress right now. We’ve already had several confirmed tornadoes from NE Texas to as far north as Illinois. Several discrete cells too in a favorable environment for tornadoes as the low level jet has ramped up.
  9. To be frank, it seemed like most of the models missed on this feature, not just the Euro.
  10. This was from before the final storms further to the south went off, but this suggests to me that the high risk area ended up being too far west (we already knew that), too far north, and not far enough to the east. Can’t say that I blame the SPC at all either. This shows how off the models were at handling this set-up as they quite a ways off to the west and north with this.
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