DanLarsen34

Are the storms to the west elevated? They’re looking REALLY good on velocity and structure on reflectivity.

This is the most prolific long-tracking supercell I can recall in a LONG time. Closest analog I can think off the top of my head in the past couple of years was the Carbondale EF-4 supercell in 2017. I missed most of the action earlier because of work, so thanks for these threads everyone. This has been a crazy day.

They just said “large and extremely dangerous tornado” in the new warning. You think? Where was this warning 5-10 minutes ago? That’s bad.

Definite debris ball on this storm, both on reflectivity and on the CC.

Doesn’t seem like anyone has been bullish on this set-up after the past few model runs. Too many failure modes evident to get very excited about this.

This is fine gif.

Dixie Alley is tornado alley at this point.

This is a really strongly worded outlook for Day 3. Models really shifted in the past 24 hours towards a more dangerous set-up.

Classic hook and developing debris ball. This is big trouble.

Hate to nitpick here, but the discussion language mentions “an isolated strong tornado is possible” while the primary threat section says “a couple of intense tornadoes likely.” There shouldn’t be a discrepancy.

From an SPC meteorologist.

The sheer number of violent tornadoes is what sets those two apart from any other outbreak. This raises an interesting question: how many total tornadoes, and violent tornadoes, do you need for an outbreak to be considered a super outbreak? This would be a fun discussion topic. I’ve seen some discussion that 10+ violent tornadoes could qualify.

Absolutely! It’s likely the 1974 super outbreak had more tornadoes than what the official number stands at for the reasons you just gave.