DanLarsen34

Wanted to get a thread started on this. SPC has a 30% area outlined already in the day 4 forecast on Wednesday (February 12). A squall line looks likely based off the latest model runs, but the SPC also mentions the potential for supercells posing all severe hazards.

Wanted to get a thread going on here for the severe threat today across the region. A large enhanced risk is up for basically the entire region for damaging winds. Could be a moderately active day for tornadoes too given the environment in place across the warm sector with some discrete cells expected.

Wanted to start a thread on this. Looks like we are entering an active week for severe weather next week, the week of February 3. SPC has 15% outlook areas for Days 5 (Tuesday), 6 (Wednesday), and 7 (Thursday) starting along the Arklatex on Tuesday, then moving into the Gulf states on Wednesday and Thursday. Could be an active week!

Should we move any discussion of today’s threat over to the SE forum? I just checked and saw no one has started a thread yet. SPC has 10% hatched probabilities across Alabama, and the models are popping some incredible STP values later this afternoon.

I’m a little surprised they dropped the significant tornado delineation in the update. Significant tornadoes are still a distinct possibility, both within in the line, and with any sustained semi-discrete convection (see cell near Clarksville, AR).

To be fair, the DFW area was never under more than a 10% risk for tornadoes, and much of the risk today was expected to be embedded tornadoes. Plus, the 15% area is bit further east and that area wasn’t expected to see peak activity until later tonight.

In terms of a significant tornado threat, I think the WAA storms well out ahead of the main complex in Texas are the ones to watch. None are rooted near the surface yet, but they’ll be a problem once the better upper level support arrives.

That’s a big one. Only ones I can think of this bit are typically outlook upgrade MDs.

It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update.

An evolution like this can still produce a significant outbreak of tornadoes (see 4-16-11 as a textbook example of a linear mode evolving into a line of semi-discrete cells). Not saying that’s what’s going to happen here, of course, but it’s something to keep in mind.

On this point: The storm mode is definitely an issue, but given the strength of the low level jet, this could still be a prolific tornado producer. We’re looking at 850 mb winds between 60-80 knots Friday and Saturday (latter values have popped up for Saturday across Alabama). Several embedded tornadoes, including significant tornadoes, are a distinct possibility. Some of the CAPE and STP values showing up in Texas on Friday are crazy for early January too. I think the CAPE record for this time of the year in the Dallas area was set around Christmas of 2016 in a similarly anomalous winter set-up.

Probably stating the obvious here, but the ceiling of Friday and Saturday is going to hinge on storm mode. Both days have the potential for discrete convection ahead of an intense QLCS. Any discrete cells on either day would be capable of producing significant tornadoes. Either way, we’re looking at a pretty significant two day period for severe weather.

Pretty sizable risk area at that. Friday’s outlook has shifted west towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area and I-35.

As mentioned above, SPC has added a 30% contour for Friday for the Arklatex region. Discussion shows they’re quite bold on the warm sector that will be in place that day. Instability/shear combo will be quite impressive Saturday stays at 15%, but the risk area has been expanded a bit with SPC hinting at a possible upgrade in the next outlook.

Thought I’d get a thread going for January 10-11. SPC already has 15% threat areas for next Friday and Saturday, January 10-11, for much of the gulf coast. Threat starts in the Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana area on Friday, then shifts to Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday. Could this be our first severe weather event of the decade?