beanskip

That's why I said 9 p.m. Pressure rises on the approach to the coast, but concerning to see such rapid intensification.

Any look carefully at the Euro? Drops the pressure to 980 mb at 9 p.m tonight -- that's 10 mb lower than any prior Euro forecast over the past 3 days. Also, brings 70+ mph gusts well inland east of Tallahassee. Not good.

Anybody having trouble with HMON and HWRF on Tidbits? 12z runs should have started by now, right? Any other source for those?

NHC will start "Potential Tropical Cyclone 16" advisories at 11.

Frankly, a bit surprised NHC hasn't initiated some sort of pre-cyclone advisories on this system. Seems quite likely that at least a tropical storm will make landfall within 48 hours in an area still recovering from Michael. It's getting very little play in the panhandle.

I'm not. I appreciate the pbp.

GFS comes in a smidge east of 6z.

Wow -- unless there is a sharp bend between 96 and 120, it never really even comes close to a landfall (relatively speaking).

This run would be brutal for Freeport. Slows to a crawl right over the island.

96 hours -- well offshore -- just north of Grand Bahama -- going to have a hard time making landfall from there ..... Huge shift north, btw, vs. Thursday 12z run.

So the 6z HMON made landfall near Miami at 6z Tuesday morning. The 12z run is still 50 miles off shore at 18z Tuesday, moving due north.

Canadian may depict a landfall at 102-108 hours, but it's a scraper that then ends up offshore, headed to the Carolinas.

The "never makes landfall" scenario is about to move from theory to modeled solution -- the new Canadian through 108 hours has the eye just offshore, or perhaps straddling the coast at 102 hours.

The only thing less clear to me than the eventual path of Dorian is why you are allowed to post on this message board.