beanskip

A worst-case track for New Orleans -- Zeta comes "ashore" right up Terrebonne Bay, keeping it over water for as long as possible.

Still strengthening, per latest recon pass -- yikes.

Yeah that half-a-cane Michael was really pathetic. Could barely even tell it was a storm. #facepalm

How much value can these model runs have that are initializing the surface pressure 20-40 mb too high?

And the 0z NAM (again, I know ....) also slides a little east -- now showing landfall JUST west of the Fla/Ala. line near Orange Beach/Perdido. Also shows a slight delay on landfall and some strengthening that wasn't there on 12z run (gets it down to 976 mb).

FWIW (admittedly, not a whole lot, but not nothing either) the HRRR keeps trending toward a sharper right turn at landfall, bringing Sally across extreme NW Florida and then moving almost due east, paralleling the Florida/Alabama line toward Dothan. Other models have trended more east, but not as pronounced as this -- would shift the inland rain threat to the east if accurate.

Subtle, but not insignificant east trending in the mesoscale and even global models in the last couple runs. Wouldn't surprise me to see a landfall closer to Pensacola than Mobile.

0z HMON had 986 mb storm at 9z Sunday. It has been trending weaker ever since and 18z run, at 9z Sunday, has a barely discernable 1003 mb "storm."

Yup -- would be borderline Cat 4. Not likely, of course, but having lived through Michael, I will never fully discount those models intensity projections.

FWIW, HWRF and HMON 18z runs both blow up 98 into a monster hurricane either threatening the SE Fl coast, or passing through the straits into the Gulf.

Oh boy, 12z Euro coming in with much stronger solution --- 993 mb in far southeastern Bahamas.

Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment.

That's why I said 9 p.m. Pressure rises on the approach to the coast, but concerning to see such rapid intensification.

Any look carefully at the Euro? Drops the pressure to 980 mb at 9 p.m tonight -- that's 10 mb lower than any prior Euro forecast over the past 3 days. Also, brings 70+ mph gusts well inland east of Tallahassee. Not good.

Anybody having trouble with HMON and HWRF on Tidbits? 12z runs should have started by now, right? Any other source for those?