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  2. ORF recorded a Trace yesterday. This was a record for the date since there was no previous November 12th with recorded snowfall since snowfall records began at ORF in 1891.
  3. 18.6 when I left with Rather windy conditions. WTF.
  4. Detroit is down to 9°F and dropping, which breaks the daily record of 12°F. As mentioned earlier, it’s the earliest single digit low temperature in Detroit’s history, with the old record being 8°F on 11/16/1933. Detroit ended up breaking every daily cold temperature record for the 12th: record low, record high minimum, and record low average temp. Impressive combination of record snow followed by record cold.
  5. Overnight Euro was interesting. First shot we see is on Monday (red circle). Right now it stays off the coast so that we see no impact through our region except for possibly around the VA tidewaters up to OC. Probably doesn't matter anyway as the very setup that brings this up the coast is also responsible for trashing our temps as the NS withdraws taking the colder temps with it to the N and E. And anyway I look at it I can't see getting the low closer to the coast to impact us without further losing the temps or getting the temps to cooperate without possibly losing the storm. Barring a somewhat significant shift at 500's, the euro being significantly off on temps or a bombing low just off our coast I think this storm is pretty much dead in the water. Now if we were in the heart of winter or even a month down the road where climo temps would be more cooperative I would have interest in this but as of now I think it is pretty much a non-player. But we are still 5+ days out so... But that isn't the system that has my interest. Look at what we see following on the heals of our Monday system. We have a strong shortwave/trough (purple circle) running down through the gulf states which is attaining a neutral tilt through Mississippi. A neutral tilted trough around the Mississippi region is one of the things we look for when it comes to possible winter storms as quite often it will attain a favorable position and axis tilt (negative) as it sweeps through our region. This trough is catching a low that is forming in the gulf and drawing it northward up the coast as the trough goes negative tilt. Two other features to note are the 2 shortwaves (black circles) embedded in the north stream. The first shortwave (over Michigan) is driving a fresh supply of cold air down into the Midwest as it sweeps through the Lakes. The second shortwave is following with a reinforcing shot of cold air. So now we have a fresh supply of cold air to our west as a low forms and sweeps up the coast. As it is it just quite doesn't get it done. But to expect the Euro to have this energy in the NS nailed down as far as timing and placement at 5+ days is folly. Just a little difference with these features (if they exist) could mean a great deal in timing of the cold as well as the possibility of phasing between the NS energy and/or the southern energy. Now here are the 500's at day 7+. Notice we have negative tilted trough running through our region with an embedded closed low in a prime location over OBX. Not only that but we are seeing a capture of the surface at this time as well. If you also notice the shortwave over the Lakes (second shortwave from above), if we were to see a quicker deeper drop with that feature earlier in the process that could also come into play with potential NS/SS phasing. Also another feature that is of note is the ridging we see to the west in the central US. The initial placement (ridging builds up around Idaho) and eastward migration/evolution of this feature is one of a storm signal in the east. THIS IS THE LOOK WE WANT. Give me this look inside of 3 days and I would be hollering up a storm at the potential. Below we have the surface map as the same time above. We are seeing a 989 mb low captured around OBX and moving northward. This low has seen fairly rapid deepening the previous 24 hrs as we see a 15 mb drop. Now the temps are lagging a little to our west and we are seeing very little precip on the western side of the low. So basically it is a swing and a miss. But these are details that mean nothing at this time range (7+ days). As it is, it is enough to know that the Euro at this time, and has been for awhile, sees a shortwave running through the south as well as the NS dropping in to possibly provide cold air and possibly more. Anything beyond that as far as details is meaningless. Now if we can just get this general look inside 3 days... eta: Just a couple comments about the EPS on the possible Wed system. EPS still sees the southern low development and though somewhat progressive with that feature it has improved in that regard compared to yesterdays 12z run as well as with the trough depth and placement. Saw a better indication as far as possible NS involvement over the 12z run as well though we need to see improvement in that regard. Overall the general look has improved and shows the possibilities. Don't bother with glancing at the individual snow maps because they are basically a no-show. This will be a case of what we see occur with the NS in future runs. We continue to see improvements with that feature (in particular a deeper drop) then the other features would probably fall into place.
  6. Same here 22° currently...Another station record for coldest so early.
  7. Today
  8. Pretty nice rainstorm on the 0z guidance next week.
  9. Beware the positive PDO. It will shunt very frigid air into the US. It also has a tendency to cause Texas and the Eastern US, Mid Atlantic Region inclusive, to experience much more precip than is normal. These anomalies will help bring about a much colder and very much snowier winter in the Mid Atlantic, and I suspect, possibly into the southern plains at times. Washington DC will be obliterated by ridiculously frigid air and snow. Nor'easters loaded with high wind and torrential snow will be common thru this winter! Some of these nor'easters will devastate major metros up and down the Eastern Seaboard with strong winds and a ton of fresh snows, to be followed up by incredibly frigid airmasses. Strong cold advection will blow much of the fresh snow around, creating monster drifts. Many of you in the Washington DC Metropolitan Region will be utterly WEARY of shoveling snow! You will cry for the Jebman to come back and dig you all out! This past arctic front was VERY COLD in south Texas where I reside. Today we only managed low 40s for highs. This, at a time when 71 degrees is normal down here! Tonight we will dip possibly to the low 20s! This, at a time when we should hit the low 50s for lows! Last night it got so damned cold that the rain changed to sleet and freezing rain and elevated surfaces became coated with an eighth of an inch of fresh ice! I damn near smashed up my lower back trying to obtain a rainfall reading last night! It was dark and I never saw the ice! Wind chills were brutal, in the single digits at times! That north wind gusted to 45 mph at times! Trust me, it was no time for a jebwalk. I tried. It was very, very cold and stuff was breaking off trees and flying around in the strong gusts. This is going to be a very severe, extremely cold and very snowy winter, all over the US. The Mid Atlantic is going to be particularly hard hit.
  10. Bay Effect snow flurries flying outside now. Pretty cool. A lot different from the big silver dollars that were falling earlier. Two days in a row of snow in November is pretty awesome for down this way.
  11. This brought back memories of college. Tried to cook a whole chicken in the dorms microwave. Doesn't work too well. Freaking thing exploded. Scared the hell out of some of my dorm mates who happened to be near by. Chicken was splattered all over the place, even had a wing hanging down from the ceiling of the microwave. But me being on a limited college budget ate it anyway. At least the pieces that were still somewhat recognizable.
  12. Hard to believe it was 55 here just a couple days ago. Now it suddenly feels like mid-January, go figure.. At least you guys up north are putting that cold to good use There's nothing more picturesque than snow falling in the middle of the night, kind of like watching an approaching thunderstorm on a steamy summer evening. Both weather events will always have a soft spot in my weenie heart.
  13. As the final total for the 12th I recorded 2.2 inches with flurries still falling on the measurement tile. In the grass I measured as much as 4 inches in some places. Currently I'm sitting at 16 degrees with the possibility of reaching single digits for a low tonight. It was nice to see old man winter finally return. I'm glad most folks in our region got some (or a lot) of flakes as well. Hopefully this sets the trend for the upcoming winter.
  14. As of 12:45AM 15.1 degrees where I am now in Liberty NY
  15. With the amount of controversy and criticism EC receives for YYZ's snow measuring techniques, this isn't surprising. I'd assume it has something to do with a lack of funding. But even then, Windsor is a major city in Ontario and this is unacceptable.
  16. 28.5 at midnight. Coldest for time this season.
  17. This just in- it's cold as the actual fook outside
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