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  2. Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol
  3. There is a nice ridge in the west. The pacific is good.
  4. Those pics....are incredible. I can't believe we have so many people that have traveled there. I've been researching for the last few months but it's tough to know what to hit. We will have about 12 days in the south island. Did you bring a drone?
  5. Clear bias of the euro unless they fixed it.
  6. Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ?
  7. of these days you're gonna snap. A diet of denial and sugar-coated turds, (ie halloween snow storms and blackened snow piles in parking lots), can only sustain you for so long.... It will be epic when it finally happens
  8. We're spraying solutions all over the plausibility map ... yeah, we know - Nothing is also possible for that matter.
  9. Pacific overwhelms and dominates with zonal flow on the ECM. Springy torch after the bowl game with a deep Pacific coast trough, nasty run.
  10. The Euro is no go for next weekend’s winter storm chance, but the 12z GFS & Canadian say that we are very much in the game for a coastal storm. It will all come down to how nicely the northern stream & southern stream end up working together or against each other. We still have 6 days to try to figure it out.
  11. Had you been posting all day about AGW from outside ?
  12. Congrats! Went a couple years ago during their winter. Really amazing place. I would recommend Mt. Cook National Park, Doubtful Sound cruise and Kayak, and a nice strenuous hike up Roys Peak!
  13. I have so many questions. I'm planning to stop in auckland for 1 night do the sky tower bungee jump and some island off the coast 40 minute ferry. Then fly the next day to queenstown and set up shop there for awhile. Can I stay in Queenstown for the entire duration of the trip and just leave early with rental car? Or is there another town I should stay at a few days and get an Air bnb? What was your itinerary? Maybe we can take it to DMS or if you have FB messenger?
  14.’s 7 days out, anything is on the table! Go with the ensembles at this point as Scott said.
  15. Nah .... it's only personally guilty if you think it's for validation - as in, it's going to happen. There's nothing wrong with having fun - it's a social media pass-time, one that has emerged because of the Internet advent meets with models that should be available to the tax-payers that ultimately foot the bill. It's just that people's purpose for the engagement vary, ...some unhealthy. That's not us - or 'me' anyway. The 12z Euro now is two runs back to back with no bueno on anything. Hard to to tell ... it did flatten the undulate big-time western ridge signal as I suspected, but it's - I think - tizzying over what to do with the wave lengths down stream and it's messed it up. Heh, in an intuitive sence, it may be a better sign for a system for that model to "not" carry one at D7.5. I mean, if it's finding its way with the pattern, you almost don't want it tossing up bombs because than you know you got no fun there. I'm curious about the EPS
  16. yall might wanna check out the 12zNAVGEM evolution at 500mb also. thats a possibility also. another interesting possible solution. hr180 on the NAVGEM shows how easily this can become all NS if that SS slides east initially and faster FWIW JMA is also a hit and miss
  17. I’m actually fine with the euro. I’m tired of the diarrhea from clouds that has comprised this winter. Either snow or whiff.
  18. Strong zonal flow doesn't support a big storm tracking up the coast.
  19. BW ---> My wife has a childhood friend who now lives there and she is going for her daughters wedding. She will be traveling with her best friend who go figure also has someone who she has not seen in years who lives in the same damn town as my wifes New Zealand friend ( small world for real ) so thats the plan. They stay in Hawaii a few days before the wedding. I on the other hand will stay home and play Mr Mom and watch for St Paddys snowstorms lol
  20. Ugh been beautiful here 48, just got back inside. Sorry you had such shitty weather
  21. Not during my hours lol. I’m all over the place sometimes. It’s fine. At least one leg of the trip is usually traffic free.
  22. Me thinks whiff is definitely on the table with this threat.
  23. The robust Pac jet is causing issues yet again, similar to other times this winter, and last winter as well. Still way out in time though.
  24. Yea it was feeling great out here on the deck while I rile up the concerned citizens
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