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Some rain starting to kick in...
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This winter is going to be very interesting if the oceans don't completely flip around. El Nino winters are coldest here when they follow a negative ONI DJF, have low solar, and ONI is strong. The 2014-15 El Nino was after a negative ONI winter, but had strong solar, and was a very weak El Nino. 2015-16 was strong, but still had fairly strong solar, and followed a positive ONI winter. An El Nino in 2017-18 would probably be stronger than 2014-15, with lower solar than 2015-16, and after a borderline La Nina winter. It'd probably be more like 2006-07, which was a weak El Nino, with low solar, following a weak La Nina in 2005-06. If we don't have an El Nino, Neutrals are ~3F colder here when the AMO is warm. Low solar helps a bit here too. Last warm AMO neutral was 2012-13, which was actually a fairly cool winter here (-1.1F against 1931-32 to 2015-16). The low solar, high AMO Neutrals are 1931, 1932, 1943, 1944, 1952, 1962 - been ages since we've had that combination. 1943 is actually very similar to 2006 across the board, just lacking the El Nino. 1931-32 and 1943-44 were both unbelievably cold for almost the entire West, and don't seem too far off from what I'd expect for the sun, AMO, PDO, and ONI in a cold-neutral. In Albuquerque the mean high for DJF is 49.5F from 1931-32 to 2015-16. Neutral Year N-A PDO N-A AMO Sun Jul-Jun ONI DJF Tmx DJF 1944 -0.10 0.329 33.8 -0.5 50.2 1943 0.34 0.294 14.2 -0.1 44.7 1952 -0.41 0.260 36.4 0.5 49.9 1937 0.23 0.239 180.8 -0.4 51.4 2003 0.49 0.207 82.0 0.3 48.1 1931 0.38 0.186 25.1 -0.3 47.5 2001 -0.55 0.165 176.0 -0.2 48.9 1960 0.33 0.161 116.6 0.0 47.5 2012 -0.40 0.161 87.4 -0.6 48.4 1961 -1.53 0.150 67.1 -0.2 47.6 1962 -0.46 0.144 42.2 -0.4 48.0 1935 1.36 0.137 97.0 0.1 49.5 1932 -0.08 0.134 14.5 -0.2 45.0 1959 0.31 0.134 184.2 -0.1 46.4 1948 -1.62 0.117 194.4 -0.4 45.4 1936 0.67 0.067 172.8 -0.3 47.4 1966 -0.66 0.045 104.2 -0.3 49.9 1947 -0.11 0.009 205.9 -0.2 49.1 2013 0.38 0.001 108.7 -0.6 52.3 1934 1.02 -0.025 27.6 -0.1 50.7 1979 0.64 -0.045 233.4 0.5 54.0 1996 0.38 -0.058 14.5 -0.5 48.4 1981 0.34 -0.073 195.5 -0.1 52.0 1990 -1.48 -0.082 200.8 0.3 49.5 1946 -0.27 -0.089 197.9 0.1 51.5 1980 0.79 -0.131 199.1 -0.4 55.8 1989 -0.34 -0.158 200.7 0.1 48.6 1978 -0.20 -0.170 169.9 -0.1 48.1 1967 -0.52 -0.189 145.0 -0.6 48.6 1992 0.61 -0.227 103.3 0.2 48.7 1993 0.99 -0.266 53.8 0.1 52.0 1985 1.02 -0.290 16.1 -0.5 53.3
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You got that right Met! Barely climbing out of the 50's here again today. Had to drive down to the valley today to warm up a little lol.
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Nice shot solak!
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Some pre-sunset color just after a little bit of rain... Some post-sunset color with the drier air winning...
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If you can believe it, Battle Creek is at 0.97" for the month while Kalamazoo is just at 0.75"! Quite the difference 1-2 hours north or south make. I like the look of many ensembles showing several rounds of convection across the region and sub-forum in general, however, depending on what model you view - areas already hard hit could be hit again with very heavy rainfall but this time we add a severe prospect from Wed PM through Sat. With the ground in central Michigan so wet, it wouldn't take much wind to start causing tree issues atop of flooding issues.
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Iowa meso ,you really need to come out of your 2002 Plymouth State era http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=60&_l=on&network=NH_ASOS&zstation=CON&var=dwpf&threshold=45&direction=below&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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Even with plenty of morning/early afternoon convection, the 0z 3k NAM run was much more aggressive with the afternoon convection, especially in southern/eastern Iowa. Won't be able to work out too many details until the morning stuff works its way through, but at least some of the mesoscale models show pretty robust destabilization during the early afternoon. DVN's scheduled move to their new office is supposed to start tomorrow, with their radar down for at least 2 days. That may become a concern with almost no alternative options for radar coverage in E/SE Iowa where the best supercell threat seems to be at this time.
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Euro brings the heat northward, as the ridge flexes its muscles, I would tend to agree with the Euro. Not to mention the GFS has been bad for a while now, case in point how it handled Cindy especially at day 5 and beyond, for example.
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Take a look at the 12km NAM soundings for Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois on Wednesday. The 3km NAM has an MCS along I-80 somewhat early, then develops convection in the Davenport-Kansas City corridor, within a zone with pretty high severe parameters. However, it would appear that the higher tornado chances would never reach northeast Iowa or Wisconsin if the 3km NAM is right.
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This was earlier this evening but so cool to see the drainage flow on the local PWS network. Wind flow is coming downslope off the Spine of the Greens on both the east and west sides. The cooler air is pooling into the valleys, as the dense air settles into the lower elevations.
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This is a very interesting climatology plot from NWS Boulder today. It is the probability of precipitation vs. day of the year at Denver. This type of plot represents northern CO, but I think Colorado Springs would have a higher probability of precipitation in mid-summer, and also gets less snow overall in winter. This almost exactly confirms my claim that July 15 - August 15 is northern CO's monsoon season.
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Are you clearing your browser history? Maybe automatically when you leave your browser? I have to re- login on my IPAD whenever I clear the history.
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Similar weather way down here in central Georgia. Low dew and temps in mid 80s. Very comfortable
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May was great here due to lots of fronts and lack of a strong westerly jet, but I don't think there has been a mean southerly jet west of about 95 W in about a million years. Gulf moisture has been basically cut off from the western Plains this month. It's kind of weird, the hailstorms have been coming to some extent anyway the past 3 years on the Front Range but most have been earlier or later than usual (May, September). The usual rule "put the car in the garage if it's June" isn't really holding.
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The long-term trend (86 years) for May & June precipitation is down in my area, with all other months up or flat over the past century. We're one of the source regions for the Front Range, so suspect as we dry, you do too. It's bizarre because other than January & August, ever other month is up, and way up at that. The airport here just got 0.48" of rain today, most rain for the second half of June since 2010. In my area, May & June are fairly predictable by blending solar and ONI status. May has literally never been wetter than the long term average in a high solar La Nina going back at least 100 years. High solar El Ninos are usually pretty wet though in May-June. La Nina/Neutral are wetter when solar activity is low, but still fairly dry, but El Ninos are drier. So overall, suspect the weakening solar activity has some impact. May does seem to be driven somewhat strongly by the NAO, which also corresponds well to the sun. The cold phase of the AMO tends to correspond to wetter Springs too, and we're not in it using the traditional scale. The PDO, when positive is also a very strong wet signal for the Southwest, and it's been weakening since the 2014-15 winter/spring.
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Thinking the farther north and west you are, the less likely to encounter clouds and/or haze to decrease the drama. We'll be taking my daughter to college in OH and driving either from or to CO, so either I-80 in NE or I-70 in MO (totality covers its ENTIRE LENGTH in MO) are a good bet. It'll be around 1 PM CT... are PM thunderstorms a good bet in MO? NE tends to dry out a lot in August.
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Regarding the insane rain cutoff in MI....I am at just 1.24" on the month IMBY! DTW is at 1.46". To give perspective, at Detroit the 10th driest June on record is 1.30" and the 20th is 1.61". So while that seems unlikely to attain based on the Thu-Fri forecast, it is a CRAZY difference from less than 2 hours north.
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http://whitemountainsojourn.blogspot.com/2012/05/5-24-12-tuckerman-ravine-june-17-1969.html
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Snapped this pic around 445pm on the way home from work. Looks like a rain shower in the distance.
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NYC's almanac for 6/27. Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max Precipitation... 101 in 1966.....61 in 1968....76 in 1943....55 in 1940....2.11" in 1932 ..98 in 1943.....63 in 1893....75 in 1999....56 in 1893....1.99" in 1919 ..95 in 1963.....63 in 1938....74 in 1894....56 in 1905....1.12" in 2015 ..95 in 1983.....64 in 1974....74 in 1901....56 in 1927....1.07" in 1938 ..94 in 1941.....64 in 1985....74 in 1909....56 in 1985 ..94 in 1964.....68 in 1881....74 in 1953....57 in 1968 ..94 in 1980.....69 in 1924....73 in 2003....57 in 1974 1919... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1919-06-28/ed-1/seq-18/ 1932 weather report... http://bklyn.newspap.../image/58212657 1943 heat... http://bklyn.newspap...image/53665758/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/53665764 1977... http://www.nycsubway.../perl/show?5771
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I have 4.44" for the month so far with a chance of showers tomorrow. Storm total from last week was 1.94".[emoji58] If I'm correct, I think I'm about 0.50" BN. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
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Inside of the car was probably over 145
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Yeah, I call bunk on some of those. That recycle bin looks like it was hit by a fire and you can't cook a cookie at those temperatures. An egg maybe (it takes a long, long time at a minimum of 130 degrees, not 118.
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Ironically, a great deal of ponding has shown up over the past 5 days on EOSDIS. The strong winds, WAA and chinook-type event off the Kolyma range on the forward flank of the storm did a great job of breaking the inversion and eradicating snow cover, jumpstarting melt-ponds. The O-buoy 14 pictures show that as well, going from solid snow cover to solid melt ponding in less than 2 days. Melt should slow considerably for the next 3-4 days. However, the upcoming pattern has downsloping flow off the Brooks range for an extended period, which will serve to push the Chukchi/Beaufort front back pretty quickly.
