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I just recently heard some thunder so that's a first for the year. As for the snow yesterday I guess I'll pin it at 0.2 from a close friends guesstimate looking at his backyard...
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Think this run just kinda brought home a potential fail scenario that should taper our expectations for now...we gotta look for how much that se ridge flexes because, from what I understand, it could make a huge difference!
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Certainly not everyone. Just the people whose only contribution in the past few pages is to react to one single snow map...
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If it wasn’t the Euro then there would be less pessimism. But it fails just like the rest. Maybe less often.
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of Feb 17th
janetjanet998 replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Tennessee Valley Authority Verified account @TVAnews 2h2 hours ago More In the East Tenn. area we are releasing very high flows from the tributary dams (Norris, Cherokee, Douglas, etc.) and expect to make reductions as early as tomorrow to begin storing water. Continue moving tremendous amounts of water down the Tenn. River. -
Full 1hr EURO loop:
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We're boned.
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Everyone is just assuming the euro is right all of a sudden? I feel like everyone has given up hope in the last 30 minutes
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2.5" down here
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First of all the fv3 actually is predicting about 8” in DC don’t exaggerate using that flawed snow map. The snow depth map is much more accurate. The kuchera has weird banding issues and the 10-1 has ice issues the depth one seems to match up better with what it is actually showing if you do the work and look at temps at all levels and precip and figure it out yourself so this is a better idea what it’s really saying. that’s still really good...6-9” around DC 10-12 Far NW but let’s not exaggerate it any more. It’s bad enough! But is it really that far off from the euro...both imply the change from snow to non snow is around 18z so just about all this precip before is snow. The only difference is the euro aims that moisture feed slightly NW of the FV3. At 72-84 hours that’s not a huge difference but since we are right in the area where that relatively narrow band is going to hit it matters big to us! But look at them...not that different euro 24 hour qpf ending 18z fv3 24 hour qpf same time they just disagree where that banding is aimed by about 40-50 miles. That’s all.
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I'm telling ya...We solve one problem with CAD...but now we gotta worry about not having enough moisture because of the se ridge! So it goes around here...fix one issue and another comes, lol
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SW PA gets the short end of the snow stick often so glad for them. I am trying new tactic of positive thinking.
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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Here is the 12z Euro Kuchera ratio map. Those 9’s around Harrisburg should be 6’s. @psuhoffman just had a good post in the Mid Atlantic forum basically saying that, for this storm, it may be better to trust the 10-1 ratio maps instead of Kuchera. -
A classic example of wasting tax payer money. And another example of “use the budget or lose it next year”
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The main moisture plume is pushed to our north and west. SE ridge is flexing...just another way to fail...we always find a way lol
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VDOT brined the roads in Fairfax Co last Thursday for our weekend storm that went south.
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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The 12z GEFS also improved again for southern PA for Wednesday! The mean snow amount increased by an inch or two from the previous run. There are several good snow hits among the individual ensemble members. -
Here is the hour by hour. It’s mostly just light snow until we get better rates right before change over. There is definitely a window for accumulation, we just need to juice up the waa through the area. 10z-15/16z looks good. Edit: they are out of order and 10z-13z is just light stuff
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I'm up to 5.1". As expected, this wave moving across Iowa this afternoon is dropping nice, fluffy dendrites.
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Would this...be an example of the fail scenario where the se ridge bumps the waa too far northwest?
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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread
NycStormChaser replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
Bingo! I've been in several awesome winter storms this winter within 2 to 3 hours of the city -
It’s a level 1 storm for vdot in nova. Not enough to bring all my plow trucks out of hiding....=disappointment
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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion
Rd9108 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What's the kuchera say. Cant trust a 10:1 ratio map especially when you guys are dealing with CAD. I fully expect my area to feel the effects of the warm tongue on this one. -
Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes, The 12z Euro is Southern PA jackpot! The front end thump comes in strong & targets us with the best precip as snow before we flip to ice later on Wednesday. -
I was about to call 1-3 inches a bit low of a forcast...but after what someone said about the se ridge...might end up being right, unfortunately...oh that dang ridge!!
