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  2. That period holds the best potential of the season thus far without question. You can do a loop of the eps ans see exactly how the pattern is progressing and repeating itself between the 23rd and last days of Jan.
  3. Nice Jeep!!! It’s just all depends honestly. That ride was in Royal Blue, on the west side of I-75. That area is mostly forest roads/trails.....some mud/dirt/gravel....and a few river crossings. The water can get deep in a few places. The east side of 75 of Royal Blue can be a bit more “wild”, and plenty more opportunities to damage your ride. I’m like you in that I don’t want to damage my Jeep, so I stick to the trails that I’m comfortable with. I’m still pretty much stock, other than put 33s on, as well as Rubicon take-off springs/shocks. With that being said, I’m comfortable on SOME trails at Windrock, but prefer smaller groups of like-minded people that don’t have dedicated trail Jeep’s. If you want to get out and hit some roads/easy trails, look on Facebook for Smoky Mtn Jeep Club. All of their stuff is super easy and fun. This pic is from the overlook at Windrock. .
  4. I predicted blocking from Dec into a portion of January, and slightly below avg snowfall....blocking will likely persist a bit longer than I had thought, though.
  5. EPS also really likes the last week of January, after the Mon-Tues wave.
  6. Sugarloaf really froze up hard last night. It was really bad cement. They dropped a few ropes on Trails that were almost unskiable. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
  7. KBUF AFD wants nothing to do with the lake effect over metro at all...not sure why?
  8. 12z EPS snow mean down from yesterday’s run for next Mon-Tues but definitely supportive of a light-moderate event. EPS does not support GFS solution of running the low into the upper Midwest. It actually tracks the low across a pretty good path for us and keeps temps colder.
  9. That’s what my wife said...we have two kids now.
  10. Novavax is a company that is vastly under reported on . They are using a Protein Subunit which has long been thought of as likely the best approach. They received 1.6 B from Operation Warp speed and have bought enough companies to aid in the ramp up of production of up to 2 Billion doses of their vaccine this year. They had the highest antibody responses in early trials that i am aware of, they are just a smaller company (especially months ago before they received the Billions in Funding) and are often over shadowed in the vaccine story by Oxford, JnJ ,etc. Moderna was also a very small company...and look what they did. Now Novavax Producing 2 Billion dosages over this coming year is nothing to underestimate. The only risk i see, is that they were most aggressive in enrolling the highest amount of Elderly High risk populations in their phase 3 trial, You know so their will probably be initial "sticker shock" when those high risk populations play a role in a bit lower efficacy data but the surgeon general was vocal about commending them for being the only? company who was actually enrolling the highest risk populations in percentages that they were very happy with.
  11. 4" isnt a lot. I know to the true NC residents it is, but it is rare to get 4-6" a year in Raleigh area. If I were from here I wouldnt expect a few inches of snow each year. Its tough to get that every year here
  12. Some of you guys need medication. Lol
  13. My guess is this will bump north after midnight on Tuesday am...that when the north towns get in on the action
  14. No one should be getting too up or down over ops at range. But what I do find troubling is how it pertains to longer scale issues when we see runs that end up too warm despite a pretty darn good pattern. That run might not be correct but the models are based on sound physics. They don’t show “impossible things” like Ji says. It’s not good when we struggle to be cold enough to snow in late January with a -3 Stdv blocking event and a -epo. If that pattern is still a struggle it portends larger scale problems regardless of the meso scale outcome. Whether is snows or not next week that’s not a good sign long term.
  15. I had no idea that I was actually dead until I scrolled back. This changes everything. My suite is quite nice actually.
  16. You just said it was squashed and weak? So that was my response to that. Was just busting chops a bit too. So now it’s not weak and squashed?
  17. Eps is interesting for the 26th and 28th. It all depends when the energy ejects.
  18. I think what you're describing is something like Feb 2, 2015?
  19. No, I did not - ha ... Truth be told ...I spend a goodly amount of recent energy explaining to folks that there's no use in prediction beyond 5 days in this overall circumstance, so at risk of being a hypocrite. Trying to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken shit pattern is tough.
  20. That’s what blocking does...squashes sh*t. Lol. At least this year.
  21. Don’t confuse my willingness to acknowledge the very real and concerning longer timescale overall patterns and trends with analysis of a specific threat. I still think, and said so, that it snows in the next 2 weeks. I also think there are signs it’s getting a lot harder to get snow around here. It shouldn’t take this many things lining up. Both those thoughts can be true concurrently.
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