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  2. The 12z Euro is what I think is a realistic pattern evolution for the next ten days given the block in place and potential for the Pacific to start lending a hand per John's post above. It is supported by the CMC and GEPS. For now....I am tossing all runs of the GFS (unless it verifies....LOL...but which run do we pick?).
  3. It’s gonna take a decent shift south for us to see anything ground visible from the 9-10 deal…and even with that the cold is barely there. We wait.
  4. I think the threat is legit in that timeframe. I think it's more an interior and elevation event.
  5. The EPS has been trending towards a + PNA. If that continues and comes to pass, along with the -AO/-NAO that isn't just a recipe for potential, it's normally a near lock for cold/wintry weather. The EPS is also reeling in the set up, unlike the GFS who is kicking the can all over the place from run to run.
  6. Yeah and not only the OP but the ensembles are doing the same thing on drastic changes from run to run....
  7. Sure thing: NWS website on 500mb: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/500mb#:~:text=For the 500 mb level,5%2C640 meters (18%2C503 feet) University of Arizona: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/lectures/sec1/info500mb.html PSU: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/94
  8. Same for us. Once that sun went below the tree line sitting and watching my daughters lesson got cold. We were down in Aldie VA
  9. Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that?
  10. There were long times in between snow. January wasn't great until the very end, but the two week stretch we went through was just unbelievable.
  11. No doubt. Run to run throws many different options around for sure.
  12. Tip might have some additional fodder for his 12/13-14 thread on this run.
  13. From what im reading and researching is that the gfs is having a very tough time handling the forming block in the Northern hemisphere. No doubt the PNA region is crapping things up but I don't think we go full torch either...
  14. We are up to 48. Making a run for 50. Not sure we make it but maybe 49.
  15. The hell with the gfs currently. Been doing a lot of reading and I don't think the gfs has a clue on what's going on with the blocking pattern taking shape. I think the euro has a better grasp on things.
  16. Yeah....whats shifting the block from Baffin to Quebec City amongst friends?
  17. Gonna be a buttcheek clencher either way, hopefully next week's storm -if it actually occurs- will not be
  18. I was just looking at that ha ha. It looks like it takes the entire hemisphere of atmosphere and just bodily shifts Southeast 1000 miles like everywhere unilaterally and dimensionally
  19. for some reason the GFS is completely ignoring the effect of the Atlantic wave breaking on the block and instead shunts it east. meanwhile, the ECMWF properly develops it as warmer air advects into the Davis Strait it plays right into the GFS's progressive bias. the ECMWF's evolution of the block makes way more intuitive sense IMO
  20. It varies on the season and situation of course, but inside of 72hrs should have the H5 and surface depiction quite close to the final truth. Statistics clearly say the euro is the best at this, but it definitely gets schooled by other guidance more often than in the olden days.
  21. Just absolutely 100% useless. Serves no purpose.
  22. The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of?
  23. LOL at the difference in the blocking between GFS and Euro at day 6
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