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Honestly it would be entirely unsurprising if there was an accident involving chasers today. It may also be the first time a high risk convective outlook and excessive rain outlook have overlapped.
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Lol, this is a thing in OK?
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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
frd replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
You think it is related to the Atlantic Ocean cycle and the tendency in recent years for very warm SSTs near and to the West of the very robust WAR ? ( sometimes the entire basin was bath water, aka the year of all those Atlantic Cat 5 hurrinces, including the record for the longest sustained cat 5 ) We have, I believe, set records at 500 mb at times with this feature the last several years, this year's WAR seems to want to go to that eventually. -
It looks like the HRRR may have overcompensated a bit with trending north with the warm front. If one adjusts a bit south based on trends/radar imagery, it would bring the warm front to roughly or perhaps just north of I-40. It does depend on how far south early day convection extends, meaning if any surging outflow shunts northward lift of the front. With that said, with such an anomalously strong daytime low-level jet, one has to wonder of the warm front would not keep lifting north for a bit. I do think that the HRRR might be a bit overdone with discrete convection north of I-40 from the eastern Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma, as a result, but we'll see. Anyway, the 12z MAF/Midland, TX sounding is very telling. The fact that we have a volatile, high-end severe environment already in place at 7 in the morning and this far west, should be alarming. The environment near MAF will advect northeast through the day with the greatest parameter space likely from the Caprock region and Northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma.
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That's a very real possibility. The population density which is in the highest risk areas for tornadoes and flooding is quite expansive. I just hope chaster congestion today doesn't yield catastrophic results. There are many who hold this concern.
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Showers in the Okc metro area right now.
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Full sun. Another beautiful day on tap.
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they have done well so far. saw a couple tornadoes friday, some structure saturday then traveled yesterday. looks like they will be in the texas panhandled area today. doubtful they head towards OKC.
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This is the strongest wording I’ve seen from them. If you go back to the 4-27 outlooks, they understated the violent tornado threat by a bit that day given the parameters that were in place. Going to be a long day!
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Yeah, Tsar Bombas along the dry line today. Gonna be wild.
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My house is on the sound straight across between Carova and Corolla. Tuesday was move-in day to our house and we were outside all day. I have a view clear across from my house of the sound and didn't see it. Storms dance around us all day. We got a brief shower later in the day but that was it. Good picture.
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It’s rare I think that these events bust anymore. If they do it usually is caused by two things. The initiation occurs too early or things end up more linear than expected
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excellent point. If some of the non-HRRR solutions like the HiResWindow ARW2 are correct, the OKC area dodges a bullet on the violent tornadoes but ends up in (or very near to) the bullseye for catastrophic flooding.
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Exactly, and because of this, I hope for their sake is does verify to soem capacity because the SPC has had some pretty good busts lately and I think folks may be disregarding them to a degree.
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News stations here are talking about it equally as much as the tornado threat
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With parameters in place, high end severe and several tornadoes will happen, now it's just will they be easy to track or rain wrapped basically.
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This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1. Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out. Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.
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It is possible that flash flooding is the greatest threat, because it could include OKX, TUL, ICT.
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Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats
Stormlover74 replied to Quincy's topic in Central/Western States
On one hand we hope they're wrong but on the other it would be a huge bust for forecasters if it fails to produce -
It's quite a scary situation. Not just b/c of the high probability of strong-to-violent tornadoes but you have chaster congestion and huge signal for significant flooding.
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12z HRRR
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I mean obviously today is going to be serious across the southern Plains too. Great day to be glued to the radar.
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Never got here yesterday - high was 53. Total precip thru 7 this morning was 0.57", most of which came 3-5 AM. Had a 10-minute downpour in Augusta at 8, now just very light stuff. Big Q: will we warm-sector this afternoon? Forecast says yes, though as Chris notes in the convection thread, svr chances seem to be retreating. SNH already upper 60s with mid-60s dews while AUG area was near 50.
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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
bluewave replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
For some reason, summers have been more backloaded here since 2015 in terms of heat.
