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  2. January Banter String

    Being 1 or 8 in the playoff standings is irrelevant as is winning the Presidents Trophy.
  3. 30.8F and --------SN we dust
  4. I dunno, Eagles looked pretty darn impressive last night. But I suppose a wealth of experience in the big game counts for something.
  5. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Major temperature series adjusted for natural variability: enso, solar, and volcanoes. Strong warming in 2017 after adjustment, particularly for satellites. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/2017-temperature-summary/#more-9559
  6. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Well, it's only 12 day out - I am sure it will verify! :-)
  7. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    For return of OMW?
  8. Early Winter Banter, Observations & General Discussion 2017

    33 and light rain. How lovely.
  9. January Banter String

    This will easily go down as the least watched SB. People are sick of NE and who the hell wants to root for Philly? Not me. Better be a crapton of Dilly Dilly commercials
  10. you've got me wrong, i am not criticizing them, i work with them and respect them and you and i am one. I am not mission funded, so we work.
  11. January Banter String

    The NFL won't let the Eagles win the Super Bowl. Heck you had a referee going out of his way to congratulate Brady no sooner than the clock hit zero in that game.
  12. Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

    Ops and ens looking fairly consistent right now with the return of winter in the Feb 5th - 9th time frame. Just wishcasting but hopefully we can have it stick around for 4-5 weeks, then break into Spring. 6z GFS:
  13. Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    12z EPS continues the very consistent look of cold arriving sometime between Feb 3-5 depending on your longitude in the forum area. One more nice weekend, and then it looks like the hammer drops again. It is SLOW moving just like before Christmas. As suspected, the eastern trough is getting deeper as we get closer to the run. This run of the EPS pretty much brought the cold goods full whammy. It seems that models have underestimated all winter how far the cold penetrates SE. But this is February and the SER will fight back which might be a good thing in small doses. Looks like the EPS is also correcting the axis of the trough. You know, if we get cold again as the EPS shows...that will potentially make for a truly remarkable winter for cold. And cold in February often delivers winter weather.
  14. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    2;5-10 r thereabouts.
  15. Today
  16. January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    During the February 1-10, 1981-2010 base period, the monthly Arctic Oscillation (AO) average was negative in 11/12 (92%) cases when the February 1-10 average was -0.500 or below. The latest ensemble guidance suggests that such an average is possible during the first 10 days of February, even if the AO starts off with positive values. An AO- increases prospects for above normal monthly snowfall. Since 1950, 8/11 (73%) of NYC’s 12” or greater snowstorms and 22/30 (73%) of NYC’s 6” or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO-. In the near-term, even as the January thaw continues, the current AO- will allow for some transient cold shots. One appears likely later this week. It will likely be that cold shot that helps assure that January 2018 will have a colder than normal monthly temperature anomaly. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/21: 28.6° (3.8° below normal) 1/25: 30.6°-31.3° (1/21 estimate: 30.3°-31.3°) 1/31: 31.5°-33.3° (1/21 estimate: 31.4°-33.4°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 52% (1/21 estimate: 52%)
  17. January Banter String

    Umm, scoreboard?
  18. NNE Winter Thread

    Yea, it's the icing they are concerned about. Could make tomorrow AM really really bad in spots. They are again not too worried about hyrdo issues with the rain on Tuesday. More so this time than last, but still pretty quiet on it. I dunno, WRF has plenty falling on the slopes of the greens which could easily trigger some additional flooding down stream.
  19. That’s true. But let’s not pretend a bookend cold winter with a 3 week thaw is “normal.” A thaw used to last a few days to a week.
  20. Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 9degs. AN. Month to date is -3.8degs. and at this rate we will be just -0.30degs. by the 30th. Last 2 days would need to be just +4degs. to end month at NORMAL. My guess is we finish @ -0.5degs., since last 2 days may be BN. We still have to Feb. 06 for real thing. This would mean the first 10 days were -11.4, and the next 3 weeks +4.6. Would you really call this a BN month?
  21. January 2018 Discussion

    Only 0.08" so far with the majority of the heavy rains looking to slip off to the east the rest of the night. Looks like another event well under a half inch. Hopefully we can make it to the 1/4" threshold before the dry slot moves in. Hopefully we can nab a 0.5"+ QPF event sometime in Feb or March.
  22. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    It's definitely early still and I definitely may be wrong...though I'm pretty impressed with how things are lining up for cold delivery into our region in February. To elaborate a bit... The big anti-cyclonic wave break in the North Pacific later this week closes off as a block and moves towards the pole, tanking the AO and dislodging a lot of cold from Siberia into Canada next week. Then, as the initial ridge builds on or just off the west coast around the turn of the month the cold of Canada comes south. With the MJO potentially moving through phases 8-1 during the first half or so of February and likely return of the NE Asian/NW Pac PV lobe that has caused some EPO drops so far this winter, think the ridge maintains on the West Coast and likely builds back north into AK during the first week of February, possibly causing another significant shot of Arctic air into the central/eastern US during the second week of February. Thereafter, I don't see any signs the pattern flips to warm anytime soon, so even if the last 10 days of February feature some moderation I think the month as a whole finishes quite cold overall. There is, FWIW, decent model support for this type of solution. The CFS and Euro weeklies have for quite a while had tall and persistent ridging over the west coast into AK for a good chunk of February...I think the Euro weeklies 2m temp forecasts are much too warm given its 500mb forecast. It's not a great idea to put a ton of stock in those long range models, but their general agreement and persistence in showing a -EPO February has been impressive IMO. Other techniques that I sometimes question, but seem to have some utility in highlighting bigger events, such as the Recurring Rosby Wavetrain technique and to some extent the Bering Sea Rule suggest a potential big cold shot by around the middle of February...though I think it arrives sooner as the pattern evolution starting next week appears to support the first of the cold arriving pretty promptly to start February. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles keep trending colder at the end of their runs as the first shot of arctic air moves south. As for bigger snow potential, will have to watch the initial transition period during the first few days of February. I also think there may be a brief relax and then reload the second week of the month, with some hints that some STJ energy may slip under the western ridge in that timeframe as well. If cold isn't too suppressive in that timeframe something may work out...I think the pattern may support southern portions of the sub (the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes) more than northern portions around then. I suppose calling for a potential top 10 cold February in parts of the region is a bold/seemingly hype call, and I'll freely admit there's time for this to fall apart, but I see a lot supporting significant cold that lasts a good chunk of the month, with little opportunity for big warmth to wipe it out before the month is over. I obviously doubt we top or even come too close to February of 2015 just because of how extreme it was, though there are some similarities in the pattern and a somewhat tamer version isn't too unreasonable IMO.
  23. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    Agreed. If you look back over the last 40 years, you can count all the cold and snowy La Niña Marchs’ for the east coast on one hand
  24. That airmass over Eastern Siberia is brutal...the 00z ECM initialized with small areas of -44C 850s. Strong PV there.
  25. January 2018 Discussion

    Been really foggy here as well. Temp 42 right now with dense fog, but the warm front is heading this way. MLI has recently jumped up to 50 and their vis has improved up to a mile. HRRR looks like it's struggling with reflectivity based on what the radar looks like. Kind of looks like the heaviest rains will split around us.
  26. Jan. 20-22 Storm System

    SPC made the adjustment north with the marginal risk up to just south of the I-88 corridor, and also includes a 2% nader risk.
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