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Surprise high risk for down south

Aside from run-to-run variations in evolution, the prevailing "fail-modes" to sow doubt on upper end potential have existed with consistency. Speaking more locally on the northern edge and INVOF N IL/N IN. Perhaps most likely is that we get some good soaking thunderstorms with ISO svr threat. Busted hard on my prediction with D2 shaving down the ENH southward. So I'll shut up about any further "calls". I have no business doing that anyway.

Yeah, this just ain't right!! Below normal cold is ok, but record heat...no, just no, lol. And if only one verifies, you know which one that will be....

evening trend not your friend.

More of a weenie thing since storms may not be able to take advantage of it but latest HRRR 03z showing insane STP values of 12.7 near Will, Kane, Kendall counties.

Stuck in town.Wife is working out of town tomorrow and her mom has a doc appt, i have to take her

confidence level?

40's? lows?

Early take on Thursday: some CAMs have storms in the area by late afternoon or early evening, and some don't. If, however, storms do form, the environment actually features some decent low-level shear and a resultant conditional tornado threat.

56 today. Was warm in the sun

Super weighted question. It’s a yes and no that’s very location specific. Locally I would expect average wind speeds to decrease as there will be less arctic air to create cold air advection. CAA often drives our longest periods of sustained winds. Even more locally for the coast, summer sea breezes will decrease as the ocean continues to warm. On the high end I would suspect our highest wind gusts to increase, with stronger thunderstorms and hurricanes.

Per FFC for Atlanta for April 4th: FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. If this verifies at KATL, it would be the earliest in the season 90 on record by a whopping 19 days!

I think it was April 2012 0r 2013 (?) that we had an epic all day sleeter in Greenfield. It was a late season SWFE that had little local weather media attention but was decent impact between RT 2 and VT/NH.

Nino 1+2 finished March >+1. That actually rolls forward to a strong +PDO signal by the following Fall (although the signal could be because of blossoming El Nino events)

I meant PDO. Wait until you get old.

Would wind speeds naturally increase as a result of climate change

Map? Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

Latest GFS surges 564dm hydrostats to S NH 12z Sun.

Can confirm roads are snow covered here. This band means business. We are going to end up with ~2” Edit: Monster flakes. Biggest of the season easily.

We mild

Euro 850s are like +17C But yeah…65-70+ looks good depending on sun and mixing.

Initiates storms a little further southwest giving my area a better chance at seeing some action.

0z HRRR is a sleet fest here