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  2. I ask myself why I'm confused all the time. I used to be regarded as smart.
  3. It could be worse, it could be like Hong Kong when I had to air swim to my Airbnb.
  4. Why are you confused? Have you been through Somers? So many dead ash trees...
  5. If we weren’t going into a Nina in a few months I would say it would be trying to make a run to top 2018.
  6. That's what I thought but they're leaving out now. Millions of dead ones in Connecticut. I noticed them last year .
  7. Paul Skenes is a dirty dirty man Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  8. My ashes and pawpaws are just leafing out. I think the latest trees on my property are the northern catalpas. Those still look like stick season.
  9. Got an impromptu invite to the Phillies game tomorrow night. Free ticket for a suite behind home plate with all food and drink included. Used my Amtrak points for free rides both ways too. Best part was my wife was okay with it despite having some kids parties to attend tomorrow. Sometimes the best trips are the ones that pop up last minute. I think the weather will end up being fine down there. Haven’t been to the Bank in a minute. Should be a fun little afternoon!
  10. Today
  11. I had never noticed before that ash trees were so late. I would have guessed they were an early leafer. Sycamore and locust sure.
  12. Dude. nice town. come down next winter and we’ll do some green dot skiing at Pats Peak. nothing challenging there but they have a nice apres bar.
  13. Just like the days that align for MI/IN/OH are too far east for me...
  14. Yesterday
  15. Missed this, but have tournament winner bets on: Scheffler (thug life), Koepka, Fitzpatrick, Thomas, Reed, MacIntyre, S. Kim, Murray.
  16. It may be dry for a good part of Saturday but certainly is not going to be nice. It looks like we're going to have the East Southeast flow all day temperatures staying about 60 to 65 and heavy clouds outside of the rain in the morning to early afternoon. If any clearance comes through it's not going to be until Sunday. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  17. Can't find the X post, which would save attachment usage, but the Equatorial and S Atlantic temps are trending cooler related to the MDR SSTs, or the AMM is going more positive. Which favors rising motion of the MDR, and lighter trades.
  18. Rain is ~10 miles away, near downtown by radar, but was outside, bright CG lightning, less than 3 miles away judging by the thunder.
  19. It's just basically waiting for some severe wx setups at this point. Hopefully we get active in 2 weeks
  20. The expected pattern realignment is underway. The derecho across Texas yesterday was partially driven by a cold front surging toward the Gulf of Mexico, effectively scouring seasonably rich moisture out of the Plains. Things will be changing in the coming days. Saturday: Split upper level flow continues tomorrow with the subtropical jet positioned along the Gulf Coast and the northern branch ejecting out of the Northern Rockies. The result may be a bit of a break in the severe action, largely due to a lack of stronger flow/deep layer shear across the Plains. However, a few marginally severe storms and perhaps a transient supercell or two can’t be ruled out across Kansas, as a front drops through the area. Sunday: It looks like the first potentially active day in what should be a fairly busy stretch for severe weather across the region. The setup appears just a bit disjointed, as a split flow regime hangs on. The southern branch is progged to be ejecting toward the OK/TX panhandles and KS, while the northern branch remains displaced to the north. Nonetheless, at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms, including a few supercells, seem probable across the central/southern Plains. Forcing will be modest and only weak Lee cyclogenesis is expected over the western Kansas vicinity. Details are still TBD, but it looks like a modest-caliber event for late May standards, but still worthy of storm chasing. Monday: Medium range models show some phasing of the upper level jet, as a trough digs from California toward the Desert Southwest. Due to westward placement and “late” timing, it does not look like a major event, but at least some severe potential should exist, once again around the central/southern Plains vicinity. Tuesday: It’s several days out, but there’s good model agreement that the next notable trough ejection will take place. Models show a robust, broad upper level jet across the central states. Confidence appears highest for severe potential around the lower Missouri Valley vicinity, somewhere around Iowa/eastern Kansas/Missouri. Details will need to be ironed out, but the synoptic pattern favors a heightened severe threat. This may extend as far east as portions of the Mississippi Valley, but we’ll see. Midweek and beyond look generally active, but moisture may be scoured out of most of the plains on Wednesday, behind Tuesday’s system. Even if that is true, moisture recovery seems likely by late week, along with ensemble guidance favoring enhanced upper level flow across the Plains. The result should be continued severe threats most days, right through Memorial Day weekend.
  21. Keep in mind the global warming trend, which is about +0.3 for ENSO since the 1950s. I think subsurface is strong, but not quite -5c to -6c like you see in Strong developing Nina's. I'll go with borderline Moderate/Strong, and say it hits -1.5c on the ONI
  22. Probably too far west for me. Getting though Chicago is such a pain. I’ll take the day off and leave early in the morning if its looking really good.
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