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In general ... when DP is added to air, it steals from the temperature ... That's the old trusty, PV=NRT at work for ya - 96/76 might be a good call anyway but we don't have to limit per se ... Case in point, in 2011 ... 102/75 too place down there and it wasn't an accident of a single outlier, either... It was pervasive down that way, with a scattering throughout metrowest of Boston too ... ( I wanna say July 22? but I'm notoriously bad with exact dates) . Anyway, that was about as ideal of a set up on that faithful date as can be achieved ( interestingly about that day ... mid afternoon a kind of 'dry line' swept down the Mohawk Trail all the way to the coast ...roughly N of the Mass Pike... and stranded the heat there with bone-dry variety. I recall Fitchburg had a DP in the mid to upper 60s at 99 around noon... but 3pm it was low to mid 50s at one dollar). Hard to say what Saturday's DP bathe will exactly be - cannot be ascertained (still) from Tuesday. I don't think anyway. But if 850 mb temperatures are 22 or 23 C on a West wind the sfc can get to 102 just eyeballin' the skew-t/log-p diagram... ( Oh know ...not ... actual meteorology!) 22 C gets you to ~ 97 using standard adiabat and 1000 mb.. but, 23 gets you just over 98 ... but the 2-meter is usually a logarithmic slope good for almost 2 C and there's you'r 101 ... 102.. The Euro attempts to miss a heat wave entirely... Whaaa - Yup... First of all it's joined the others in using Barry's theta-e smear to choke out Thursday. NAM just goes so far as to generate actual close isobars as his guts come... which of course sensibly acts like a flag taut BD ... Either way, that all took Thursday out of contention, so regardless of heat tomorrow ( marginal 90 as it appears...), we have to reset. Friday and Saturday are slam dunks ... But Sunday is morphing into more of wildcard than folks may realize. This is a weird whack pattern we are in.. First of all, we shouldn't be getting this "deterministically" hot with such a flat ridge. That does not mean flat ridges can't bring heat - it means... deterministically. As in, no margin for error, never errors ? Think about that... it's weird. It should be by now .. but it's now ... at least for Friday and Saturday. The long of the short is.. I could see an earlier front Sunday capping 89 ...and then we got a week that looks sumpin' like, 77/96/100/89 ... No heat wave trophy for you! I kind of hope that happens... 89/101/101/89 ... it underscores the silliness of human rules and conventions ...
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Won't be much fun on Saturday, I'll be looking for the shade, Just hoping for a breeze, May have to make a red neck pool.
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wb Euro incorporating Davis stations into their initialized data now
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85/77. Way soupier than yesterday at this time.
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Hopefully we can get Mitch 90° on Saturday. #warmth4woodford
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Had a surprise thundershower about midnight last night. Picked up 0.18". It's terribly mugly outside as today starts. 81/77
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Go to tropical tidbits and glance through the temp anomalies seen for the last few days. Seeing a lot of neg temp anomalies. Don't know what your avg temps are but we are entering the hottest time of the year so though it may seem hot it may still be under temp avgs. As far as precip I did post what I was thinking we would see. 'As far as precip through mid-month. The GEFS has been consistently showing 2-3+ inches through the east in the upcoming 2+ week period. This is not what I would call a drought as some believe we are headed to but neither is it a deluge. It is just pretty typical of what we would expect at this time of year. Now one thing I will point out is the uniform look it has with the precip totals which is misleading. What we will more then likely see are small regions of jackpots (4-5+ inches) and small regions of minimal rainfall (under an inch) and this is due to the nature of how we will see the majority of the precip. Most of the rain we will see will come from popup thunderstorms through this period. And as most are aware these are somewhat localized events and you can see huge discrepancies in just small distances. Now where these will occur throughout the period is anyone's guess as for the most part they will be highly dependent on day to day smaller scale features that will initiate them.'
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holy shite, that's ridiculous for Saturday. We'll be having 25-30 people over. maybe we'll be partying in the basement.
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Brian5671 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
any convection that gets going will have a chance to drop a ton of rain with those dewpoints -
TMI
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lol, Monday, Ah no.
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Idk, did we actually see normal temps at d12 to d16? It's been 90F here every day. Seems we've been +3F during that time frame, which is a solid + departure. And while I know not to take literally, and some folks did get dumped on, it showed close to 3 inches of rain for the entire region.... I got about .3".
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
psv88 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Saturday may be the hottest HI day in decades. 100/80? Jesus. -
And yeah. Sell those afternoon temps. GFS chugging Scoot’s four loko.
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Low 50s for highs?
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
bluewave replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Saturday is the first time I ever saw the Euro forecast an 86 dewpoint in the Northeast region. The Euro shows numerous days coming up with potential dewpoints of 80 or greater. It looks like a combination of the recent multi-year historic dewpoint spike, record soil moisture over portions of the US, and the tropical moisture surge around and after Barry. -
Looks like Friday-Sunday we will be making a run at 100° here in Columbus. Definitely gonna be a pool/Zoombezi Bay day here. I think the dews may hold it back a bit but definitely a chance
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Low 100s on Saturday for a high, then low 50s for a high on Monday per the GFS for CNE and NNE. Lol that would be something.
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Upstate/Eastern New York
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Friday Surface temp and DP Saturday Luckily Sunday starts a downward trend with both surface temps and DPs, most of next week running at or just above normal, according to the European.. - Today
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
psv88 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
These stats are useless. Yesterday the Park was 85, coolest in the entire metro area. So the 2.8 is not representative of true departure. -
A soggy noodle would be problematic too but age rapidly creeps up on us. Must use it until we lose it.
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Probably just a feel then especially when you get stiffy nw winds funneling down midtown to downtown skyscrapers. When I’m uptown you don’t have the funneling aspect yet so it feels warmer.
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Temps on the move this morning. Current temp 76/DP 64/RH 66%
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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Rtd208 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Temps on the move this morning. Current temp 76/DP 64/RH 66%
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