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With most of that falling in one day most likely (like me). Mowing has effectively been shut down.

I’m at .66 at coop site for same time period

Ha we both posted at the same time

It actually feels hot out

Feels like full summer to me today. Pool 78 with the mostly sunny skies already taking a dip after I’m done with yard work.

Northerly flow with due points in the 20s/30s/40s in May and June with and Omega blocking high over the Great Lakes region is the main reason. Plenty of smoke last weekend as storms popped up with dew points finally more summer like at that time. The influence is small if really any at all.

ENH risk for parts of the Ark/La/Tex mainly a hail/wind risk but a 5% tor was just added for parts of NTX including part of DFW SPC AC 101631 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 06/10/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1847Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

In Cincinati??

The 3km was showing decent rains earlier yesterday, but has since backed off. I'm going with 0.00-0.10" for here. Anything less than an inch is pretty much worthless anyway at this point. Need a good 2-3"+ soaker which obv ain't happening.

Just a thought here, but with all the smoke that has been wafting around our region the last few weeks, it must have an effect on precip development. I liken it to the same phenomena as Sahara dust over the Atlantic inhibiting precip/stm development to some degree. I'm not sure, just throwing that out there. Someone with more knowledge could answer that better.

Showers moving through here today in town. Shwrs/stms yesterday fizzled as they arrived from the NW, so missed out on them. Very cool out right now at 54. Dropped 10 degrees from 8 am as wind switched off the lake. Far cry from the 81 we had yesterday with dews of 55-60. It was very nice.

Kmdt has 0.40" since 5/1. Normal is 5.13" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Spectacular weekend at the beaches. Finally.

I'll take 1/2" at this point since next threat is a week away if not longer. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

pendulum finally flipped

It's June 10 and the nearest 50 dew point to me is Farmington, Missouri or Pittsfield, Illinois. It should be all 60-70 across the board.

It really is. I think in regards to temps sometimes my being 200’ higher gets me into the inversion band more sometimes and I’m not sure how but I think also being on the county line ridge affects me somehow, thinking in regards to orientation as I’m on a north-south ridge line facing WSW. Obviously flow snow depends on wind orientation and I’m sure 5000’+ peaks and ridge lines in Crabtree and Sandy Mush Balds being within 3 miles might Rob some moisture depending on that.

Hope it's heated mine was 60 this morning. Destructive sunshine we cloud up

OISSTv2.1 cooled 0.078, largest 24 hour cooling since before 3/15. While these are notable, I'm confident like you are that these are just short term "corrections" after a very rapid warming.

Rain any day now.

Finally rain is in the forecast for tonight & tomorrow. Then very good % mid week. Plus cooler wx for Monday. I don’t like the dryness but sure have loved the fall temps in June. Luckily I stayed ahead of the dryness & watering the yard has paid off. Some spots are dead but not many. I do dread higher water bill. Another thing that’s going to cost later towards fall is removing & replacing 17yo Hollies. Also a 14yo Jap Maple. Strange they started coming out & then died. Lots of very old smaller trees & bushes are dead around here. That freeze on Dec. did a number.

How many fireworks will this actually deter? There is a higher correlation between those who set off tons of fireworks and those with the YOLO life outlook than in the normal population. It might make a small dent in fireworks but no major dent will be made unless they start hauling people off the jail which is not happening or will ever. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Likely very temporary with another major -SOI onslaught and WWBs coming. Once these TC’s start forming in the Eastern Pacific, it’s only going to increase the westerlies/WWBs behind them as they move away

The El Niño atmospheric response is increasing