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  2. How's the euro looking?
  3. CMC is still trying. Jumps the primary over the mountains into the coastal plains farther south. Thus we aren't seeing the southerly flow that is completely wrecking the temps like the more northern solution of the GFS and the Euro. Probably a moot point anyway after casually looking at how deep the warm layer is running up from the surface. Even if the 850's were to cooperate I don't think we could overcome that except for the extreme higher elevations.
  4. E & SE are almost the same both are worse for the s shore than NE
  5. Excellent AFD - Near Term - just posted out of CHS regarding the rest of the afternoon/evening: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 235 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Afternoon Update: Following coordination with SPC, a Tornado Watch has been issued for a large portion of our area. Current radar imagery shows the main band of convection starting to work it's way into our westernmost counties. This continues to be in line with what many of the Hi-res convective models have been showing. A robust short wave is beginning to move over the western portion of our area and will continue to do so the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Multiple factors make the environment very favorable for convection: a strengthening low level jet, upper divergence in response to a 90-100 kt jet nearby, and good surface conditions involving well above normal temperatures and dew points well into the 60s. SPC Mesoanalysis has a tongue of SBCAPES ~1,500 J/kg working their way into our southern CWA, which is very impressive for January. Additionally, bulk shear exceeding 60 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear ~70 kt over a large portion of the area is favorable for sustaining this convection and generating isolated tornadoes. In fact, the Significant Tornado Parameter is over 1 across a large portion of our our. Some spots are even approaching a 2, which is very impressive for January. The line is expected to quickly move from west to east, exiting the coast in the 6-8 PM time frame. The one uncertainty is the low level stable trajectories off the Atlantic could limit the convection as it approaches our eastern zones. Given the line has a long history of warning-level storms, wouldn't be surprised if they maintain most of their strength to the coast.
  6. Decent little hail core in the Baxley cell
  7. Oh I totally agree!! But there was talk two days ago about running out of time for changes...and I thought to myself, there's still plenty of time for this thing to change for the better/or worse! Just find it funny that we give up too fast sometimes on systems(and I can be guilty of this myself many times also), and this year the trend with a lot of these systems has been close in...and this one is no exception.
  8. At least in 1894, we were all treated to a bomb on February 12 of that year.
  9. There you go @Superstorm93 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 232 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Appling County in southeastern Georgia... * Until 245 PM EST * At 232 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Baxley, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
  10. I've got shorts on and I'm about to go sit in the sun. I do have a solid mudpack of 2-3"
  11. Isn't that somewhat like Dec 1992? We had mostly rain with temps in the upper 30s with just a bit of sleet mixed in when the precip got heavy. Then some light snows at the tail end.
  12. Definitely on precip types, A lot at stake for the ones that are on the colder side of the guidance
  13. Keeps ticking S and E but it's all too little too late for our respective areas. Nice storm tho.
  14. We may get to even a nowcast situation
  15. Isn't an east wind worse than either a NE or a SE wind? Since all our coasts face the east, there will be a more widespread impact.
  16. For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea.
  17. That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol. Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless.
  18. parts of the south under Mod risk for severe now. ouch and rare for Jan.
  19. Classic low-topped supercell. Going to need a warning on this soon.
  20. Those maps seem a little bit off with their placement. That would indicate a pretty significant ice storm for Pittsfield and North Adams while MPM doesn't really get too much in the way of anything wintery. All ice with not much sleet for N Berks?
  21. 12z gefs members low cluster
  22. That storm was weird to say the least. When I found out that eastern NE was raining I was shocked because that rarely happens
  23. Ive suppressed most of that period from memory except for the wind. Best wind/damage I can remember here
  24. Wonder what that looks like on the eastern slope as Pittsfield is on the west side right? Wonder if there'd be any cooling from forced parcel ascent into the east side there.
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