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Drip drip drip, sun angle season though. Basically by Feb 5th, you need SPF 50 if you’re outside for 10 minutes. 6-8” if it falls at night…if its during the day, will it even stick?

Carver, can you elaborate some? Lol

Hadn’t even thought of January thaw. So yeah…we might luck into a decent 10-day period in early-February prime snow climo and put 6-8” on the board.

This aligns to what the early seasonal models / many predicted for how the winter would go. Seems everything is still aligned.

That’s January thaw time. Maybe we can get a little something in February??

Roll that forward and there will be an Aleutian trough as the TPV shifts west, a neutral/+PNA as the NE Pac ridge pushes east and amplifies underneath, and the SW trough progresses across the south/central US towards the east coast. Plus we have a developing NA block. I could be wrong, but that makes some sense in a Nino with the expected shift in tropical forcing going forward. The extended tools pretty much agree, and that's the best available guidance we have based on the end of the ens runs that everyone seems so convinced has the right idea wrt the 'crappy' look.

Definitely getting interesting next weekend. A lot can change of course, but at least we've got something.

I actually DO have a true Panic post here. Texas is turning dry again. This Nino is now officially the Un-Nino. It's a strong Nino alright but it isnt going to bring all the rain I was expecting to Texas. Another stark fact has occurred to me as well. There is no Beast subtropical jet. The son of a birtch is weak. We did far better in the Nina pattern with this so-called subtropical jet. Texas was really relying on a wetter fall/winter for Ogallala recharge. That is NOT gonna happen, now. American Southwest IS drying out. People are moving here in droves and I have never seen more construction in Buda and Kyle before but the Diaspora is coming, once we run out of water. Texas will dry out, and will be in exceptional drought status just in time for May 2024 when we will experience the hottest summer ever, with nary a drop of frackin' rain. Mad Max Days are on the way for us soon here in the Parched Southwest. Texans will fight Texans to the very last agonizing drop of the water, as the entire Southwestern US dries up and blows away on the Arabian Jet. In other news........ Mid Atlantic will have a frigid very snowy winter. Summer 2024 will be hot, humid and very WET in the Mid Atlantic.

The Euro Weeklies are something to behold this evening. Same sequence as share before, but man.

There is a raging Pac jet, so of course its mild. All the NAO does is trap the cold in place and block storms from cutting. Everyone agrees that if the PAC is crap, then it will be mild. But there is every reason to believe that heights will elevate near AK later this month.

Snow showers here Wednesday evening?

Congrats S Wey on shopping flakes

weeklies been very consistent w late dec-early jan signal and is moving in time, fits w mjo/spv progression

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks

The last time was back in 2002. It has been more common to make it to 50° or warmer on Christmas since 2003. Data for December 25 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2022-12-25 28 14 0.00 0.0 0 2021-12-25 52 36 0.16 0.0 0 2020-12-25 61 29 0.92 0.0 0 2019-12-25 47 32 0.00 0.0 0 2018-12-25 40 33 0.00 0.0 0 2017-12-25 38 28 0.23 T 0 2016-12-25 50 36 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-25 66 57 0.01 0.0 0 2014-12-25 62 44 0.09 0.0 0 2013-12-25 31 19 0.00 0.0 0 2012-12-25 41 32 0.06 0.0 0 2011-12-25 46 31 0.00 0.0 0 2010-12-25 32 25 0.00 0.0 0 2009-12-25 38 33 0.24 0.0 2 2008-12-25 57 33 0.13 0.0 0 2007-12-25 43 35 0.00 0.0 0 2006-12-25 45 39 0.37 0.0 0 2005-12-25 54 39 0.84 0.0 0 2004-12-25 33 25 0.00 0.0 0 2003-12-25 46 33 T 0.0 0 2002-12-25 37 31 1.30 5.0 M

I would watch that feature after our 66 or so as it kind of glides down the coast from Maine to Eastern mass. It’s possible some might have some minor accumulations on that feature. There is some support for it on different guidance.

For NYC (Central Park): December 1961-1990: 36.6° mean temperature December 1991-2020 (AO -1 or below): 36.4° mean temperature December 1991-2020 (AO < 0): 37.6 mean temperature

Just as we were headed up to the mountain this afternoon, I received a text alert that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory. Related BTV NWS maps are below. The Event Total Snowfall map has us somewhere in the 6-8” or 8-12” range of accumulations through Tuesday, but we’ll have to see how things play out for the lower elevations during the warmer part of the storm.

Exactly.

The PAC “wakes up” in a very big way real soon…constructive MJO interference/WWB/+AAM….should lead to rapid intensification and warming

Temperatures soared into the 50s and even 60s across the region today. New York City topped out at 60° and Newark hit 61°. As a result of today's warmth, Baltimore is in the process of recording its 673rd consecutive day without an inch or more of daily snowfall. That will set a new record. New York City and Philadelphia remain mired in record streaks without an inch or more of daily snowfall. An additional round of rain will affect the region tomorrow into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.75" with some locally higher amounts is likely. Tomorrow will also be another mild day. Overall, the first 10 days of December look to be on the mild side of normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter. Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972. The SOI was +12.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.565 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On November 30 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.104 (RMM). The November 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.781 (RMM).

thanks for posting the 384 hour map. Guaranteed to verify

We’re punting the next three weeks, and the models have sucked at ranges beyond that, so it’s looking like a shit winter since we’re going into mid-January with no snow on the board.

Locking hr 84 of the NAM

Gotcha, thanks. Thought the correlation strengthened as winter progressed.