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  2. Cmc is also very interesting
  3. The hope is the typical diurnal cumulus can be dampened by the eclipse moving in. In any case, I'm feeeling ok with Gallatin-timing of the 594dm ridge high water Mark couldn't have been planned better. Fingers crossed.
  4. This mornings forecast for Monday is promising! Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
  5. GFS dispenses with three separate suspicious areas while the CMC at its usual self, keeps all three, and crushes NYC with one of them, near the 27th. Happy tracking to all.
  6. You're late to the party
  7. A few years ago. If u like lots of kids then no worries. Otherwise, it was fine. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
  8. In a way I trust the solutions more at 240 hrs than 120 hrs - not verbatim, obviously, but given the steering winds and ocean temps it seems more possible that there would be a tc in the GOM or over the gulf stream than that there would be total dissipation and no reformulation of any of the 3 current waves. Or at least, it's 50/50.
  9. the last notable solar eclipse around here of note was the 90% eclipse on May 10, 1994 https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/1994-may-10 I saw that one through 10x50 binos and through mostly cloudy skies (the sun peaked through at just the right time after most of the day had been overcast.) This is very close to what it looked like near maximum eclipse at 1:36 PM in Brooklyn https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/brooklyn?iso=19940510 The March 7, 1970 one was more intriguing though- it followed a benchmark track! https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/1970-march-7 https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/usa/brooklyn?iso=19700307 Not quite total in Brooklyn but very close at 1:41 PM. Wasn't alive for that one.
  10. http://www.predsci.com/corona/aug2017eclipse/home.php
  11. Today
  12. 30" here for the January 2016 storm.
  13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_eclipse_of_January_24,_1925 https://ny.curbed.com/2017/8/14/16143672/solar-eclipse-new-york-city-history favorite line from the piece A partially blind 64-year-old man inHackensack, New Jersey, claimed that after looking directly at the eclipse, his sight was miraculously restored. B&W video of the event!
  14. Just glanced at 92L. The convection that we had seen over the core of the storm earlier in the night has now migrated to the north side leaving the core for the most part exposed.The dry air to the west of the storm looks as if that is getting beat back somewhat as the low to the north of the storm is driving a wedge of moister air southward into it. This is a double edged sword because of the strong sheer associated with this low which is quite obvious on the water vapor loop as it tears the tops of the convection off. At this point 92L, with what is now it's closest approach to the low to north and the sheer associated with it, is probably facing the most hostile it will encounter on its trek westward. If it can stay reasonably intact over the next 12 hours or so I think we will be game on irregardless of the dry air in front of it. A good sign, one I will keep an eye out for today, is if we see decent convention continue to pop up and begin a move southward towards the center of circulation once again.
  15. Indeed! The following frame made it even more interesting. Right now, that's an outlier at 10 days. Something to watch, but I don't trust any modeled solution past 120 hours. Long way to go, obviously.
  16. Mt.Holly: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019- PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-181545- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.170818T1800Z-170819T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex- Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwestern, central and northwestern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, central and southern Delaware and northeastern Maryland. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening * Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through tonight. While flash flooding is not anticipated with the initial round this morning, locally higher rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible, and will help saturate the ground for the next round of storms. Torrential downpours with storms that develop this afternoon and evening could produce rainfall rates greater than 2 inches per hour. While the entire area will not receive heavy rain, isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible where storms track over the same locations. * Torrential rain falling in a short period of time will result in rapidly rising water levels along streams and creeks and in areas of poor drainage. Significant roadway flooding is possible in isolated areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Basement flooding is possible due to heavy rain falling on soils already saturated from previous storms. If your home has a history of basement flooding, monitor your sump pump for proper operation and if possible, direct outside water flow away from your house && $$ Klein
  17. Mt.Holly: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019- PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-181545- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.170818T1800Z-170819T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex- Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 339 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwestern, central and northwestern New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, central and southern Delaware and northeastern Maryland. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening * Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through tonight. While flash flooding is not anticipated with the initial round this morning, locally higher rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible, and will help saturate the ground for the next round of storms. Torrential downpours with storms that develop this afternoon and evening could produce rainfall rates greater than 2 inches per hour. While the entire area will not receive heavy rain, isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible where storms track over the same locations. * Torrential rain falling in a short period of time will result in rapidly rising water levels along streams and creeks and in areas of poor drainage. Significant roadway flooding is possible in isolated areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Basement flooding is possible due to heavy rain falling on soils already saturated from previous storms. If your home has a history of basement flooding, monitor your sump pump for proper operation and if possible, direct outside water flow away from your house && $$ Klein
  18. ...Middle Atlantic states northward into NY/CT... Scattered early-day cloud cover, associated with a plume of mid-level moisture from the TN Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states, will give way to strong heating from PA/NJ southward. A moisture-rich airmass sampled by Thursday evening RAOBS (reference the Dulles sounding) will become moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic to southern NY. Models show the strongest mid-level flow will generally remain north of central VA with effective shear increasing from 25-40 kt with northward extent. The combination of weak ascent associated with a mid-level vorticity maximum (forecast to move from IN to PA during the day), and a weak cap and strong heating in the lee of the higher terrain, will favor scattered to numerous storms developing during the afternoon from central VA northward into the lower Hudson Valley. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg and 70s degrees F boundary layer dewpoints. A mixed mode of multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells will favor isolated gusts around 60 mph---conducive for scattered wind damage. A marginal risk for a tornado is possible from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity north into the lower Hudson Valley. Forecast hodographs are largest over the Delaware River Valley north into southeast NY during the late afternoon/early evening. A gradual weakening in storm intensity is expected by the early-mid evening as the activity moves towards the coast.
  19. Well, EC Operational suddenly decided to make Harvey really, really interesting.
  20. Canadian says happy birthday to you!
  21. Slight risk for most of the area for later today, mentions multicellular and possibly supercells, with a marginal tornado threat. I'll take it. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
  22. My dad and I have been on the edge of either staying in Tellico Plains on the field or braving the skyway. Viewing it from such a place would be awe inspiring. With that of course comes the perils of almost no parking and lack of facilities. If we do attempt to stop on the skyway we will try to get there before dawn and settle on a mountain bald. We will probably decide the night before in Etowah at our room. Of course all it takes is a rogue mountain cloud to ruin the skyway plan. (Jeffs input noted.) Decisions, decisions, we shall see...
  23. In the end, 92L is so far west by Day 4 that a US impact becomes locked in. 93L could throw a wrench but I think CMC offers the most easterly solution possible for 92L due to a confluence of factors such as being too far west to be removed by the kicker and the resulting rebuilding of strong high presure. I haven't seen such a robust setup in a long time. Again, impacts are contingent on the genesis and intensity of 92L rather than any feature at 500mb. FWIW 92L will have passed through the infamous Hebert Box.
  24. Anyone here stayed at the North Conway grand hotel?
  25. I agree that it may be closer to the truth on TC genesis (and yes, it does feel weird saying that) but that track was loltastic. Pseudo fujiwara with eventual 93L and then a well timed capture as it's getting kicked. Eh... FWIW the Ukie doesn't get the intensification going until it's right on Florida's doorstep. My thoughts are unchanged after these runs. Def want to see the GEFS.
  26. That's one of many ways to repeat LI express. As nutty as it appears, I feel the CMC has a more accurate representation of TC genesis. In light of that, the 500mb pattern will be different as a result of genesis lending more credance to the CMC solution. The blocking high at day 9 is a prevailing feature it seems.
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