bluewave

Prior to the NWS leaving 30 Rock back in the early 1990s, they really did a great job maintaining the site at the castle. I actually got to meet the forecasters on a trip to the office back in the 80s. Granted they had plenty of struggles with vandals especially during the 1970s since the equipment was out in the open. So I guess they made the decision that hiding the equipment under the trees in 1995 was the way to go. Even though it has resulted in the high temperatures running 2° to perhaps 4° cooler on warm sunny days then they did when the ASOS was further from the trees. This is why the NWS didn’t like substituting LGA for NYC when they were waiting for the new equipment to arrive in the park. Since they are quoted in this NYT article stating that LGA used to run cooler than NYC in those days when the trees weren’t an issue. This is the opposite of what has happened in the last 30 years. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

Yeah, spots like JFK have more subtropical dew points during the summers now which are similar to those experienced over the Delmarva 30 years ago. So the subtropical zones have been shifting north. We have seen this shift with winter snowfall and temperatures also.

The recent winter 10 year average temperature for Detroit set a new record in 2025 at 30.8°. The previous record ending in 1958 was 29.3°. But that 10 year streak was followed by an average of 23.1° in 58-59. It’s unlikely absent a major volcanic eruption anytime soon that Detroit can have another winter that cold again in this much warmer climate. Since readings near that level were last seen prior to the two baseline temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-24. My comparison to how warm a summer departure for warmth would be if Detroit and the Great Lakes saw March 2012 or winter 2023-2024 occur in the summer was proportional and not the exact magnitudes of the departures. It’s what such a summer would look like in proportion to a peak above other recent summers. Since we know the range of the departures is generally greater during the cold season. A proportional relative to summer climatology high temperature heat extreme has occurred in a few regions of extreme drought. A dust bowl repeat for the Upper Midwest would be equivalent to such a summer extreme. But luckily the conditions where the farmers removed the topsoil on the Great Plains leading to that extreme are no longer present. In fact, the record irrigation and corn production has lead to a local summer cooling in spots. Though the dew points have been very extreme since the 90s making the real feel close at times. Plus flash flooding has been more of a concern than extreme drought from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes. While many areas have experienced record summer heat during the 2020s, the most extreme heat was in association with the record drought in the Pacific Northwest . This allowed several stations to surpass their all-time highs by 6°+ back in 2021. Areas further east have been too wet during the summer to allow high temperature extremes this high.

The 100° day charts in NJ have seen a steady increase over time. Some spots away from the sea breeze set their all-time record in 2022. Even Newark had some sea breeze influence in 2022 which kept their 1993 record out of reach. But luckily the summer 100° day count is increasing at a significantly slower pace than the winter 60° day count. Maybe if we continued with the dominant westerly flow like during 2010 to 2013 things would have changed. Plus in recent years our strongest 100° heat in the 2020s has been during the month of June. This will be something to watch for the rest of the summer. Since the last few years with 100° June heat had either 10”+ of rain in a few hours or a few weeks following a June 100°. So almost monsoon-like.

The Euro and CMC both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze Monday through Wednesday. They don’t have the upper low to the east like the GFS shows with its stronger onshore flow. But I agree that NJ will probably see the greatest 100° potential heat next week away from the sea breeze influence.

Taking the temperatures under the trees at Central Park since 1995 has resulted in the high temperatures getting artificially suppressed on sunny and warm days by 3° to 4°. So the annual number of 90° degree days has artificially declined to 18 to 19 under the trees next to the castle instead of 27 to 28 days on clearings like the Great Lawn. This is why NYC would be closer to Newark on 90° days prior to 1995 and significantly more than LGA. Now NYC is significantly below both stations. So losing 10 days reaching 90° a year to the trees is a big deal. What we have witnessed since 2013 has been a shift to wetter and more onshore flow. So this is why the 2010 and 2011 summer heat for maximum temperatures of 108° still hasn’t been rivaled. But areas away from the sea breeze influence in NJ have exceeded by a few days their 90° and 95° day counts in 2010 during the 2022 summer. Areas further east couldn’t due to all the onshore flow. Some spots in NJ exceeded their 100° day numbers from 2010 in 2022. We have still managed to experience all-time summer June monthly heat away sea breeze influence in June during the 2020s. This is why the June 100° heat during this decade has been so much higher than it was during the 2010s. Those summers mostly featured 100° heat focused in July. It has almost been monsoon-like since 2020 with the strongest summer heat before the heavy rain and floods arrive. So there hasn’t been any long term decline in 100° days in NJ and Central Queens away from the cooling influence off the bay at LGA during the 2020s. Interior sections of Queens like Corona have been in line with the 100° day counts in NJ. But local breezes off he water have kept the numbers down at LGA, JFK, ISP, and BDR and other coastal sections. All spots around the area with at least 5 days reaching 100° during the 2020s so far Newark………………10 days Harrison……………..9 days Corona, Queens…..6 days Somerset………….…5 days Freehold……………..5 days Canoe Brook……….5 days

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 2021 1921

For totals on 100° days 1993 had a slight edge on 2022. Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 days reaching 100° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 9 Newark Area ThreadEx 9 WAYNE COOP 5 LODI COOP 4 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 3 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 3 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 3 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 3 TOMS RIVER COOP 3 EWING 3 WNW COOP 3 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3 Trenton Area ThreadEx 3 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 days reaching 100° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 5 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3

The warm background state caused Detroit to have its first 10 year stretch of winters without any averaging under 27°. This is directly related to how warm the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere have become. Your local winter warm records have been more impressive than the summer ones. Nobody in the Great Lakes would ever want to see a winter warm magnitude like 23-24 was during the summer. It would probably take a megadrought like they have been experiencing out West to pull that one off. But 2016 was still your warmest summer on record for average temperatures. Summer flash flooding has been a much greater risk than drought closer to the Great Lakes. So this has been preventing such high end maximum temperature heat extremes during the warm season. I am also glad for you guys that a March 2012 level extreme hasn’t happened during July. Detroit has had 6 top 11 warmest winters since the global temperature baseline jump in 15-16 . But only 4 top 11 warmest summers since then. Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) DJF average temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-2025 27.5 0 2023-2024 34.9 0 2022-2023 33.4 0 2021-2022 28.0 0 2020-2021 28.5 0 2019-2020 32.5 0 2018-2019 28.9 0 2017-2018 27.4 0 2016-2017 33.0 0 2015-2016 33.5 0

The overall monthly average high temperatures for NJ in July 2022 and 1993 were fairly close. Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WAYNE COOP 93.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.2 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 90.9 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 90.7 CRANFORD COOP 90.7 LODI COOP 90.5 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 90.4 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 90.3 Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Newark Area ThreadEx 92.1 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.1 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 CANOE BROOK COOP 91.4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 HARRISON COOP 91.0 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.5 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.5

The background state of the CONUS, North America, and the Northern Hemisphere set the parameters of what individual locations experience. This is why even though the coldest temperatures relative to the means last winter were found over the CONUS, it was still the 26th warmest on record since 1895. The most impressive winter monthly departure was last December which ranked as the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. This spring across the CONUS was the 2nd warmest on record since 1895.

July 1993 only had 4 days in a row reach 100° at Newark while 2022 had 5. 1993-07-07 103 78 90.5 12.6 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-08 105 82 93.5 15.4 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-09 104 83 93.5 15.3 0 29 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-10 105 84 94.5 16.3 0 30 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-11 99 80 89.5 11.2 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-12 97 80 88.5 10.1 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 1993-07-13 98 79 88.5 10.1 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 2022-07-20 100 74 87.0 8.5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 2022-07-21 100 78 89.0 10.5 0 24 0.01 0.0 0 2022-07-22 100 79 89.5 11.0 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 2022-07-23 101 78 89.5 11.1 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 2022-07-24 102 77 89.5 11.1 0 25 0.00 0.0 0

The GFS and Euro both have 100° heat away from the sea breeze next Monday through Wednesday. So it would be the first time for places like Newark to get 3 days in a row reaching 100° in June. The previous all-time June record was 2 days in a row back in June 2021. The all-time record for any month was 5 days in a row in July 2022. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 5 2022-07-20 through 2022-07-24 2 4 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-28 through 1953-08-31 3 3 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-01 through 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-07 through 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-09 through 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-28 through 1949-07-30 4 2 2021-06-29 through 2021-06-30 - 2 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-19 - 2 2012-07-17 through 2012-07-18 - 2 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-06 - 2 1993-08-27 through 1993-08-28 - 2 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-21 - 2 1988-07-16 through 1988-07-17 - 2 1988-07-10 through 1988-07-11 - 2 1980-07-20 through 1980-07-21 - 2 1955-07-22 through 1955-07-23 - 2 1949-07-03 through 1949-07-04 - 2 1944-08-04 through 1944-08-05 - 2 1943-06-25 through 1943-06-26 - 2 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-10

The only ground station in our area at 2m that doesn’t meet NWS criteria is Central Park.

The 5 boroughs of NYC has had 100° heat numerous times since 2013. It’s even possible that 100° heat in recent years has made it to interior NW Nassau. But we don’t have enough thermometer coverage in that area to know.