bluewave

Expansion of the extreme drought conditions in New England.

The most recent paper contains errors just like the 2013 stadium wave one which predicted that the hiatus would last into the 2030s.

The 1981-2010 September mean in NYC is 68.0. But we have been averaging closer to 70 since 2010. So close to average feels cool. Sep 81-10 NCDC official 75.2 60.8 68.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Sep Season Mean 70.5 70.5 2019 70.4 70.4 2018 70.7 70.7 2017 70.5 70.5 2016 71.8 71.8 2015 74.5 74.5 2014 69.7 69.7 2013 67.9 67.9 2012 68.8 68.8 2011 70.0 70.0 2010 71.1 71.1

Why are you citing Curry after her global temperature projection in 2013 was shown to be unrealistically low? https://news.gatech.edu/2013/10/10/‘stadium-waves’-could-explain-lull-global-warming The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s," said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012. Curry added, "This prediction is in contrast to the recently released IPCC AR5 Report that projects an imminent resumption of the warming, likely to be in the range of a 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius rise in global mean surface temperature from 2016 to 2035." Curry is the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Katharine Hayhoe September 4, 2017 · Is there such a strong consensus in the scientific community on climate change simply because anyone proposing alternate explanations is black-balled and suppressed? This is one of the most frequent questions I get here on Facebook. It's a lot easier for someone to claim they've been suppressed than to admit that maybe they can't find the scientific evidence to support their political ideology that requires them to reject climate solutions and, to be consistent, 150 years of solid, peer-reviewed science, too. But over the last 10 years, at least 38 papers were published in peer-reviewed journals, each claiming various reasons why climate wasn't changing, or if it was, it wasn't humans, or it wasn't bad. They weren't suppressed. They're out there, where anyone can find them. So we took those papers and - thanks to the superhuman efforts of my colleague Rasmus Benestad - recalculated all their analyses. From scratch. And you know what we found? Every single one of those analyses had an error - in their assumptions, methodology, or analysis - that, when corrected, brought their results into line with the scientific consensus. It's real, it's us, it's serious. Learning from mistakes in climate research https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5

You are probably thinking of December 89. But the 88-89 winter wasn’t that cold in NYC. Dec...-1.6...Jan...+4.8...Feb....-1.8. The Atlantic didn’t want to cooperate with the more favorable Pacific in 88-89 . The 16-17 and 17-18 winters with the La Niña ridge extending into Alaska had some help from the NAO AO. So they were snowier with above average temperatures. The only time we get a cold La Niña wiinter is when a favorable NPAC combines with an extended -NAO or -AO.

Warmest melt season resulted in the second lowest minimum sea ice extent and a new record low in the Central Arctic.

The sample size for La Niña Octobers with a Western Ridge and Eastern Trough is very small. So we will have to see if the strong ridge to start the month persists like it has in September. There was only 1 La Niña year since 1950 with a pattern like this. It was October 1988. The dominant Pacific feature that winter was that the NEPAC ridge extended north into Alaska. Main problem for us in 88-89 was the very strong +NAO. 08-09 had an almost identical Pacific La Niña pattern with a better Atlantic and more snowfall. So maybe a strong ridge out West in October would be hinting that the Pacific Ridge will extend into Alaska.This would be unlike the last 2 winters with the flat La Niña Ridge North of Hawaii. But we would have to wait and see how the NAO evolves . Still too early to know if any of this pans out. Just something to think about.

The record Western Ridge just won’t let up.

This was the 10th coldest 9-16 to 9-22 in NYC. It was also the coldest since 1993. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 16 to Sep 22 Missing Count 1 1875-09-22 54.7 0 2 1871-09-22 55.8 0 3 1990-09-22 59.5 0 4 1929-09-22 59.6 0 5 1956-09-22 59.7 0 6 1993-09-22 59.8 0 7 1962-09-22 60.3 0 8 1879-09-22 60.4 0 9 1873-09-22 60.7 0 10 2020-09-22 60.9 0

Cold Octobers have been a rarity in recent times. October finished with 10 out of 10 above normal temperature departure months for the 2010s. Oct.......EWR...NYC...LGA 2019..+3.8...+3.0 ...+2.8 2018...+0.8...+0.8...+1.7 2017...+7.2...+7.2...+7.4 2016...+2.3...+1.9....+3.1 2015...+0.6...+1.1....+0.3 2014...+2.7...+2.7....+2.2 2013...+3.0....+3.3...+2.8 2012...+2.2....+1.1....+1.9 2011...+1.5...+0.2.....+0.2 2010...+1.7...+1.2....+2.1

These were my favorite seasons for snowstorm quality.... 17-18 15-16 10-11 02-03 95-96 82-83 81-82 77-78

I wonder if the EPS weeklies will be included with the free Euro maps in October?

One of my all-time favorites in Jan 2016 also. 10-11 could have surpassed 95-96 in spots had it continued another 30-45 days. 10-11 had snowstorm quality and extended snow cover. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0

Yeah, the continuous -EPO/+PNA was great if you liked cold and extended snow cover in 13-14 and 14-15. But the lack of -NAO left much to be desired in the KU extreme snowfall department. I will take individual snowstorm quality every time over extended snow cover and cold. Even if it means +13 in December or 80° in February.