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  1. Without an El Nino or La Nina, the pattern has defaulted to a cooler +PDO pattern.
  2. EPS continues the theme of no big 90 degree heat right into the start of June as the trough hangs out nearby. This is the sweet spot for low energy costs where you can get by without using the heat or AC.
  3. The Euro has some decent elevated convection with the warm front Thursday morning over LI and CT. We'll see if that shifts around in future runs.
  4. It's pretty funny that the strong June dipole pattern from 2007-2012 stopped occurring right after this paper was published. http://shoni2.princeton.edu/ftp/lyo/journals/Overland-etal-ShiftArcticSummerAtmosCirc-GRL2012.pdf To further test the significance of the 2007–2012 AD patterns we randomly generated 10,000 time series, each with 63 points to match the observed time series and with a normal distribution without autocorrelation. For this simple calculation, the chance for having five consecutive values with a negative AD of magnitude greater than 1.0 standard deviation units in a sample size of 63 is rare, less than 1 in a 1000.
  5. The new EPS has no sign of 90 degree heat returning through at least the first few days of June. The reliable deep trough in the West that produced the record heat here last week isn't showing up yet. Trough location varies from the East to the Central US/ GL area.
  6. NYC is about a half inch away from making the top 20 wettest springs.
  7. We generally need a nice burst of convection this time of year like we got on May 5th to beat guidance.
  8. All events seem to be judged against what the heaviest model runs were showing even if they were several days ago. But those 1-2" runs pretty much ended by Saturday before models backed off.
  9. Yeah, the important part of the forecast for the average person is that it's raining and cool today. They really don't pay much attention to the fact that the models backed off the amounts since Friday. But they would let you hear it if it was snow amounts instead of rain.
  10. Even though models have been struggling with the daily details of this pattern, the Euro skill score has been way ahead of the GFS recently. I guess this is what happens when we get one of the biggest NAO drops on record for May.
  11. Yeah, spring in the Rockies has been our preferred mode of winter weather the last two years. Mild temperatures with all the snow getting focused into the fewer cooler temperature days.
  12. Decembers since the 10-11 amazing back to back years have mostly been milder with less snow. I didn't really mind December 2015. If it isn't going to snow what difference does it make if it's near 40 or +3 or 50 and +13.
  13. 14-15 featured 44.2" at JFK with 48 days of an inch or more snow cover. 15-16 was 41.4" with only 19 days of snow cover of an inch or more. I enjoyed the snows in 15-16 more due to the historic nature of the January blizzard. 14-15 was a bunch of lesser snowstorms but the ice build up on the local waterways was memorable with the February cold. Even though the 15-16 winter was 40 degrees and 40 inches of snow, the single Arctic shot on Valentine's Day was more impressive than anything during the previous 2 cold winters.
  14. This reminds me of how quickly most of our snow events the last few winters melted. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoulder/status/866311810017886214/photo/1
  15. NYC only needs another inch of rain for a top 20 wettest spring. NYC is currently in 27th wettest place. 2017....13.94....#27 1876....14.88...#20