bluewave

Probably too early to tell about next winter. But we got a hint last fall with the unusual Pacific SST configuration and the rare SOI reversal. Maybe we get some type of signal this fall or we just have to wait until the winter like we often do. Every single DJFM this decade had some surprise or curveball not well seen in advance. This decade has been very unique for the odd combination of competing influences.

Could sneak in a few warmer days through Saturday before the flow goes more easterly again Sunday into Labor Day.

These big Canadian highs are lining up like planes coming into an airport. Next one is scheduled to arrive around Labor Day.

Extent losses should pick up again in a few days as that record low pressure system dispersed the sea ice. You can see the drop in concentration and area with this storm. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html

While this was another very humid August, it’s turning out to be much cooler than last year. So this summer will go into the books as a continuation of the high dewpoint regime since 2016. August....EWR....NYC....LGA 2019.......+1.6.....+1.3.....+2.3.....so far 2018.......+3.4.....+2.9.....+4.7 2017.......-1.8.......-1.2......-0.9 2016......+4.1......+4.0......+5.3 2015......+2.9.....+3.8.......+3.0 2014......-1.3......-0.7........-1.2 2013.....-1.1.......-0.6........-0.5 2012.....+1.8.....+1.5........+2.4 2011.....+1.1.....+0.1........-0.3 2010....+1.9......+2.2.......+2.3

Looks like the wind forcing open a garage door caused the back wall to blow out in Farmingdale. Good thing nobody was in those parked cars.

Larger 94k daily drop on 8-22 for NSIDC extent. This moves 2019 into 8th place at 4.628 million sq km. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2018-9-23 4.615....2010-9-21 4.628....2019 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13 

What a difference a year makes. Complete opposite of the major heatwave from late last August into early September. The big heat this summer was focused into July with high humidity lasting well into August. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Snow Depth 2018-08-27 92 0 2018-08-28 96 0 2018-08-29 96 0 2018-08-30 92 0 2018-08-31 79 0 2018-09-01 78 0 2018-09-02 82 0 2018-09-03 95 0 2018-09-04 95 0 2018-09-05 91 0 2018-09-06 98 0 2018-09-07 79 0

The strongest part of those storms missed just to my north last night. Nice downpour with some wind gusts into the 30’s. Pattern change to less warmth and humidity right on track. This should last into the first week of September with 2 big Canadian highs rolling across SE Canada and New England.

The Pacific basin SST anomaly configuration has shifted from this time last year. Will this continue through the fall? Is it enough of a shift to weaken or divert the firehose Pacific Jet? Stay tuned....

Our big jump in summer dewpoints coincided with the global moisture surge following the 15-16 super El Niño. 2017 was our coolest summer of the last 4 years. But the dewpoints were still very high. So it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll see a less humid summer again. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163204080568819712

Probably 0 to 3 more 90 degrees in September if the 2010’s pattern holds. That is the number of 90 degree days in September following 5 or less in August. The 4 or more Septembers generally followed double digit 90 degree day Augusts. September 90 degree days are in the missing count column. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 3 ? 2018 14 4 2017 2 3 2016 13 5 2015 13 5 2014 2 3 2013 3 1 2012 7 2 2011 4 0 2010 11 6

Today will be our last 90 degree day potential for a while before the pattern changes. Looks like the record -NAO/-AO limited the number of 90 degree days this year. So we will finish with fewer 90 degree days than several other warm seasons this decade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 22 132 2018 36 0 2017 22 0 2016 40 0 2015 35 0 2014 15 0 2013 25 0 2012 33 0 2011 31 0 2010 54 0

Gorgeous photo of the rainbow after the storms.

Newark gusted to 45 mph. Strongest winds on that warned storm are near Jersey City now.