bluewave

Very impressive to see DFW have their first high temperature below 50 of the fall before NYC. A -30 high temperature departure this time of year is pretty extreme. A new record low maximum temperature of 49 degrees was also set. (The previous record was 60 degrees in 1923.) This is the earliest in the season for a high temperature in the 40s. (The previous record was October 22, 1936.) MAXIMUM 49 1223 AM 95 2015 79 -30

This is actually a record amount of cloudiness for the first half of fall. More like what is typical for Buffalo in December.

The EPS has a strong El Nino storm signal near the end of the month as the STJ comes to life. Any tropical disturbances getting entrained into the system will only add to the potential.

Gust to 109 mph in Figueira da Foz with the sting jet. Quite a bit of damage including blown out windows. http://www.ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/news.detail.jsp?f=/pt/media/noticias/textos/leslie-3.html The IPMA station of Figueira da Foz / Vila Verde registered at 21:40 UTC (13:40 local time) on October 13, 2018, a gust of 49 m / s (about 176 km / h). This value is attributed to a phenomenon called sting jet . Sting jet is a strong downward current that sometimes develops on the western edge of extratropical depressions and can reach the surface. In these cases, the bursts may exceed 150 km / h in a reduced area, typically located southwest of the core of the depression. The formation of this meteorological phenomenon was first studied by the group of Professor Keith Browning of the University of Reading in the late 1980s. The gusts observed near the surface result from evaporative processes occurring at medium levels of the storm's hazy mass. These processes result in cooling and consequent downward transport of air to lower levels with progressive acceleration. The designation of sting jet stems from the fact that the signature of this phenomenon in satellite and radar images (image below) resembles that of the tail of a sting . In continental Portugal, a similar phenomenon was observed on December 23, 2009. However, at that time, the phenomenon was not associated to a depression resulting from the transition from tropical cyclone to extratropical depression, as presently it was verified. In fact, in 2009, the phenomenon resulted from a depression whose life cycle took place entirely in the middle latitudes. Then, the depression underwent a process of explosive cyclogenesis (rapid and intense decrease of atmospheric pressure in its center) to which a sting jet happened . The value of the 176 km / h gust, now observed, is the highest recorded in stations of the national meteorological network (previous high of 169 km / h on October 17, 2015) and is compatible with the short-term forecasts issued by IPMA, based on the European Center model and the AROME mesoscale model, operated by IPMA.

Reminds me our our recent winters. It was 63 yesterday in Denver. Today it's snowing with high temperatures in the low 20's so far.

Several of the other stations around the area had their latest first temperature below 50 for the fall. Islip 2018.....10-12........previous latest.....10-2-15 White Plains 2018....10-12........previous latest.......9-29-17 Bridgeport 2018....10-12........previous latest.......10-8-02

Today is the 124th day this year in NYC with measurable rainfall. This establishes a new record for the year through October 13th. While the temperatures have dropped closer to normal for fall, the wet pattern continues. Models have a cutter every few days as the trough digs into the Great Lakes and East. Number of days in NYC with measurable rainfall through October 13th: #1...124 days... 2018 #2...116 days... 1996...1950 #3...115 days....2003 #4..114 days....1920 #5..112 days....1916

Updated for the 3.94 at Sayville. Sayville 3.94 700 AM 10/12 CoCoRaHS

Finally a step down closer to normal temperatures for the fist 5 days and then a dip below 6-10. MJO has left the warmer phases and the El Nino recently increased in strength. The record Pacific blocking shifts further east as the NPM continues near some of the highest values for this time of year.

About the only type of snowstorm we haven't had yet during the 2010's is a BM stall or loop for days with 40" to 50" of snow.

Monmouth right up along the South Shore was the big heavy rainfall jackpot withMichael. Fire Island bouy gusting to 52 mph now. Sayville picked up 3.94" with likely higher amounts just to the south.

It's always fun to watch the models correct north right up until storm time. This has been one of the main themes during the 2010's. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/MICHAEL_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL077325 Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics Kun Wang Clara Deser Lantao Sun Robert A. Tomas Whereas previous modeling studies have examined the equilibrium coupled climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss, we have investigated aspects of the transient adjustment to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice, with a particular focus on the tropics and the role of ocean dynamics. To study the relative roles of dynamical versus thermodynamic air‐sea interaction, we conducted identical sets of experiments with CCSM4 in the full‐depth ocean model (FOM) and slab ocean model (SOM) configurations. The SOM response is dominated by a quasi‐steady interhemispheric SST contrast (warming in the NH and little change in the SH), accompanied by a northward shift of the ITCZ and Hadley Circulation. The FOM response is more complex, with distinctive patterns that evolve over time. The tropical SST response is characterized by a distinct equatorial Pacific maximum, which develops within approximately 20 years, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the ITCZ and Hadley Circulation. These structures amplify with time and are in marked contrast to the SOM response. A heat budget analysis for the upper 100 m of the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates the importance of anomalous vertical advection, which is tied to a monotonic warming at depth (below 200 m). Although further diagnostics and experiments are needed to understand the origins of this subsurface warming, it appears to be qualitatively consistent with the adjustment of the global thermohaline circulation to a density perturbation in the North Atlantic, in this case induced by a freshening and warming of the subpolar gyre due to sea ice melt. In addition to distinctive tropical responses, FOM and SOM also exhibit some differences in their NH midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses. In particular, FOM shows an increase in lower tropospheric westerlies over the North Pacific, a response that strengthens over time. This aspect is very weak and shifted poleward in SOM compared to FOM. In addition, SOM shows reduced westerlies farther south, a feature that is lacking in FOM. These distinctions in the midlatitude circulation responses between FOM and SOM, apparent even within the first 25 years, can be traced to differences in their tropical Pacific SST responses and affect the precipitation response along the west coast of North America among other regions. In summary, the coupled ocean‐atmosphere response to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is rapidly (within 20–30 years) and markedly modified by dynamical ocean processes. To what extent our results depend on the particular model used and the experimental design remains to be ascertained.

This has to be one of the strongest wind gusts from a hurricane so far inland from the coast. At 5:25 PM EDT, Donalsonville [Seminole Co, GA] AWOS reports HURRICANE. 115 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DONALSONVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#TAE/20181… 5:45 PM - 10 Oct 2018 from Donalsonville, GA

The 2.30" PWAT surge coming up the coast from the Delmarva with the heavy convection is near record levels for October.