bluewave

Looks like the offshore low should be closer to eastern sections early next week. But there still could be a little inverted trough feature over NJ. So it may be a nowcasters special to see where the best convection ends up focusing since IVTs can be fickle.

My guess is the reason that the 2022 hurricane season wasn’t as active as forecast was due to the stronger Maritime Continent forcing leading to more subsidence over the Western Atlantic in August and September. 2017 didn’t have this issue so it was much more active. This is probably why the Atlantic has been so quiet in recent weeks. So we’ll probably need to see a decrease in Maritime Continent forcing next few weeks for the Atlantic to become active. The developing La Niña and record SSTs would suggest a much above average Atlantic hurricane season. But the final piece of the equation would be more favorable forcing. Plenty of time for things to shift allowing the more active forecasts to verify since it’s still very early.

The Maritime Continent forcing is even stronger than usual for a developing La Niña in July due to the stronger WPAC warm pool. It may be why the Atlantic hurricane activity has been quieter than expected since Beryl. The 500 mb pattern has also been similar to a very strong La Niña response across the CONUS with the classic Niña ridge axis near New England and the PAC NW. But the strength of the ridges are more exaggerated than we typically see with La Ninas. This has also been the case with the La Ninas in recent summers. So another case of the WPAC warm pool leading the actual La Niña ONI SST readings.

Average temperature at SMQ is running warmer than 2010 through July 25th. A close 2nd in 90° days at 23. 3rd place for 95° days by July 25th. The average max daily dew point is just ahead of 2013 at 73.6° with a few days to go. Records at SMQ started in 1999. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-25 75.2 0 2 2010-07-25 74.5 0 3 2013-07-25 74.3 0 4 1999-07-25 74.0 8 5 2020-07-25 73.8 0 - 2005-07-25 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-25 25 1 - 2010-07-25 25 24 2 2024-07-25 23 0 3 2022-07-25 22 0 4 2021-07-25 20 1 5 1999-07-25 19 159 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999-07-25 11 159 2 2012-07-25 10 1 3 2024-07-25 8 0 4 2022-07-25 7 0 - 2011-07-25 7 0 5 2002-07-25 5 2 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=SMQ&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Absolutely, the low level smoke early last June was off the charts. Those fires were much closer in Eastern Canada. This is higher altitude smoke originating over the western portion of the continent.

We might get a pretty sunset out of it.

Much more comfortable temperatures to close out the month with a cutoff low getting stuck under the block early next week. Could be our next chance of rain by Monday. Exact amounts will depend on the track of the surface low looping back to the coast.

Valentines Day 2007 was one of the more unusual frozen precip patterns I ever saw in the area. Started as heavy sleet across Nassau enough to collapse a gas station canopy in Island Park. Then it turned to steady freezing rain south of Sunrise with a .25 to .50 accumulation on the trees and wires in Long Beach. No freezing rain from north of sunrise. So it was the only ice storm to get limited to the immediate South Shore.

Definitely. Driving the Meadowbrook north you always felt it getting warmer once past Merrrick Road and especially once north of the Southern State. The opposite was true in the winter. Left Long Beach many times with rain and had the snow start mixing in north of Merrick road.

It was July 2010 with the 108° reading. July 2011 was missing and the station shut down several months later. July 2010 was the all-time high and the all-time low was -5° in 1943 but they got close in 1994. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for MINEOLA, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 M M M M 2023 M M M M 2022 M M M M 2021 M M M M 2020 M M M M 2019 M M M M 2018 M M M M 2017 M M M M 2016 M M M M 2015 M M M M 2014 M M M M 2013 M M M M 2012 M M M M 2011 96 M 94 96 2010 101 108 99 108 Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 108 0 2 2001 105 32 3 1999 103 10 - 1966 103 0 4 1988 102 50 - 1975 102 1 - 1948 102 1 5 2002 101 0 - 1973 101 0 - 1968 101 0 - 1952 101 0 6 2006 100 1 - 1993 100 8 - 1991 100 0 - 1957 100 12 - 1955 100 3 Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1943 -5 0 2 1994 -4 3 3 1942 -2 0 4 1983 -1 91 - 1976 -1 3 - 1961 -1 2 5 1979 0 22 - 1948 0 2

I used to live 2 blocks from the beach in Long Beach. There were days when it was 85° at my old place and almost 90° from Atlantic ave in Oceanside to Sunrise highway. Then many more 90° days in SW Nassau north of the Southern State. Mineola is probably one of the hottest spots on Long Island very close to the Queens border. I believe the 52 days reaching 90 in 2010 is probably the all-time record for Long Island. It was very competitive with Newark that summer due to the frequent westerly flow. Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 52 0 2 1988 34 50 3 2002 33 0 4 2005 32 2 5 1999 27 10 - 1991 27 0 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 59 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54 NY MINEOLA COOP 52 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 51 NJ HARRISON COOP 50

The JFK ASOS is closer to the water than your area is. When I used to live in Long Beach it could be 85° but closer to 90° from Sunrise to Southern State. So the 90° counts steadily increase away from the immediate shoreline.

The sea breeze has been boosting the mins due to higher dew points and muting the maxes in terms of 90° days near the coast. Even Newark has fallen behind years in the lead for 90° days by July 24th. Harrison a few miles away from the bay has gotten close to the top. JFK is only in 15th place for 90° days by July 24th at 2 days. A year like 2010 with all the westerly flow was in 1st place with 20 days already. Newark is in 5th place and Harrison 2nd place. Only Central NJ is keeping pace with 2010 in 1st place. Max # 90 days by July 24th Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 20 0 2 1983-07-24 14 0 3 1991-07-24 13 0 4 2012-07-24 12 0 - 2002-07-24 12 0 6 1952-07-24 11 0 7 2022-07-24 10 0 - 2011-07-24 10 0 - 1966-07-24 10 0 - 1962-07-24 10 0 - 1955-07-24 10 2 - 1949-07-24 10 0 8 2013-07-24 9 0 - 1999-07-24 9 0 - 1993-07-24 9 0 - 1988-07-24 9 0 - 1987-07-24 9 0 - 1974-07-24 9 0 9 2017-07-24 8 0 - 2003-07-24 8 0 - 1997-07-24 8 0 - 1986-07-24 8 0 - 1984-07-24 8 0 - 1971-07-24 8 0 - 1963-07-24 8 0 10 2020-07-24 7 0 - 2016-07-24 7 0 - 2008-07-24 7 0 - 1994-07-24 7 0 - 1981-07-24 7 0 - 1977-07-24 7 0 - 1969-07-24 7 0 - 1968-07-24 7 0 - 1964-07-24 7 0 11 2019-07-24 6 0 - 2005-07-24 6 0 - 1992-07-24 6 0 - 1972-07-24 6 0 - 1957-07-24 6 0 12 2021-07-24 5 0 - 1995-07-24 5 0 - 1990-07-24 5 0 - 1978-07-24 5 0 - 1961-07-24 5 0 - 1956-07-24 5 0 - 1954-07-24 5 1 - 1953-07-24 5 0 13 2006-07-24 4 0 - 2000-07-24 4 0 - 1970-07-24 4 0 - 1965-07-24 4 0 - 1959-07-24 4 2 14 2018-07-24 3 0 - 2001-07-24 3 0 - 1998-07-24 3 0 - 1996-07-24 3 0 - 1989-07-24 3 0 - 1982-07-24 3 0 - 1980-07-24 3 0 - 1976-07-24 3 0 - 1973-07-24 3 0 15 2024-07-24 2 0 - 2015-07-24 2 0 - 2007-07-24 2 0 - 1975-07-24 2 0 - 1958-07-24 2 1 Newark in 5th place Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 32 0 2 1993-07-24 28 0 - 1987-07-24 28 0 3 2022-07-24 27 0 - 1994-07-24 27 0 - 1991-07-24 27 0 4 2021-07-24 25 0 5 2024-07-24 23 0 - 2011-07-24 23 0 - 2002-07-24 23 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-24 31 17 2 2024-07-24 28 0 3 2002-07-24 26 5 4 2021-07-24 24 0 - 2012-07-24 24 21 - 2011-07-24 24 14 5 2018-07-24 23 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-24 27 8 - 2010-07-24 27 0 3 2021-07-24 25 0 4 2022-07-24 23 0 - 1988-07-24 23 0 - 1957-07-24 23 0 - 1894-07-24 23 11 5 2020-07-24 22 0 - 2012-07-24 22 1 - 1952-07-24 22 0

The sea breeze has kept the maxes down a JFK.The high of 91° so far there is the 4th lowest on record. But the high dew points have kept the minimums warmer at 3rd warmest. JFK recently set the longest streak for under 100° days at 4024. And it’s very possible this streak will extend at least into next year. Much stronger sea breeze influence since 2014. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2009-07-24 85 0 - 1948-07-24 85 46 2 1979-07-24 89 0 - 1967-07-24 89 0 - 1951-07-24 89 0 3 2023-07-24 90 0 - 2007-07-24 90 0 - 1960-07-24 90 0 4 2024-07-24 91 0 - 2021-07-24 91 0 - 2014-07-24 91 0 - 2004-07-24 91 0 - 1996-07-24 91 0 - 1985-07-24 91 0 - 1976-07-24 91 0 - 1975-07-24 91 0 - 1973-07-24 91 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1948-07-24 69.3 46 2 2010-07-24 69.0 0 3 2024-07-24 68.3 0 4 2013-07-24 68.0 0 5 1984-07-24 67.8 0 6 1952-07-24 67.4 0 7 1994-07-24 67.3 0 - 1981-07-24 67.3 0 8 2011-07-24 67.2 0 - 2008-07-24 67.2 0 9 2015-07-24 67.1 0 10 1983-07-24 67.0 0 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2024-07-24 1 4024 2013-07-19 through 2024-07-24 2 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03 3 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15 4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08 5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22 6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04 7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20 8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21 9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31 10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02