bluewave

Looks like the record blocking for September forced the severe to go further south into CNJ and SNJ.

The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. New run Old run

The first 45° of the season came in a bit earlier than the recent average since 2010 at Islip. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp 45 First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-03 (2015) 09-18 (2013) 111 Mean 05-15 10-04 141 Maximum 06-01 (2020) 10-18 (2021) 159 2022 05-09 (2022) 44 09-24(2022) 45 - 2021 05-28 (2021) 44 10-18 (2021) 45 142 2020 06-01 (2020) 44 09-21 (2020) 44 111 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 10-05 (2019) 42 142 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159 2014 05-03 (2014) 44 09-23 (2014) 45 142 2013 05-27 (2013) 43 09-18 (2013) 44 113 2012 05-12 (2012) 43 09-25 (2012) 44 135 2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 40 152 2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-09 (2010) 44 148

Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this.

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-01 (2018) 09-02 (2017) 110 Mean 05-16 09-28 134 Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-18 (2021) 164 2021 05-30 (2021) 48 10-18 (2021) 46 140 2020 05-21 (2020) 47 09-19 (2020) 48 120 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 09-19 (2019) 49 126 2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164 2017 05-14 (2017) 44 09-02 (2017) 49 110 2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146 2015 06-02 (2015) 49 10-02 (2015) 48 121 2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150 2013 05-27 (2013) 46 09-15 (2013) 48 110 2012 05-11 (2012) 48 09-25 (2012) 48 136 2011 05-06 (2011) 44 10-02 (2011) 49 148 2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-03 (2010) 49 142

Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north. So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not.

Impressive Fiona wave break will set up an strong blocking pattern for the rest of the month. First lows near 50° in NYC by Saturday. Then the next tropical system gets stuck underneath strong Canadian high pressure to the north. So that my be our best shot at soaking rains around the area depending on the exact track.

Looks like Canadian high pressure will dominate later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow in the forecast. Any tropical moisture coming underneath will help us out.

The Fiona wave break will produce a record 590dm ridge south of Greenland. So Friday into Saturday looks like the first actual fall weather of the season. Lows near 50° in NYC and highs not getting out of the 60s for a day or two. We continue to need record blocking just to get some cooler weather around here.

That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ September 19, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987 Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week

The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.

Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.