bluewave

The greatest SWFE miracle in a challenging pattern during holiday week was 1990. NYC Sum 1540 1100 - - 686 0 5.58 7.2 - Average 49.7 35.5 42.6 5.1 - - - - 1990-12-20 45 32 38.5 2.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-21 59 45 52.0 16.2 13 0 0.30 0.0 0 1990-12-22 61 58 59.5 24.0 5 0 T 0.0 0 1990-12-23 66 57 61.5 26.3 3 0 0.27 0.0 0 1990-12-24 63 29 46.0 11.0 19 0 0.44 0.0 0 1990-12-25 31 22 26.5 -8.3 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-26 36 25 30.5 -4.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 1990-12-27 28 21 24.5 -9.8 40 0 0.07 0.6 1 1990-12-28 36 24 30.0 -4.1 35 0 1.05 6.6 7 1990-12-29 43 35 39.0 5.1 26 0 T 0.0 1 1990-12-30 60 40 50.0 16.3 15 0 0.02 0.0 0 1990-12-31 60 27 43.5 9.9 21 0 0.10 0.0 0

Root for a thread the needle SWFE event around Christmas. Sometimes we can pick up snow in an otherwise unfavorable pattern provided the system isn’t too amped up.

Models have the MJO stalling in phase 5 which is mild this time of year. The timing of a shift to colder is still uncertain at this point. Last December at this time we were heading for the coldest 8-1 phases. That’s why the last week of December was so cold.

It looks like our typical 50 degree + warm up around the winter solstice is on track. The only years since 2000 without one were 2010, 2009, and 2000. NYC high temperatures 12-18 to 12-24 since 2000: 2017-12-24 55 0 2016-12-24 58 0 2015-12-24 72 0 2014-12-24 58 0 2013-12-24 71 0 2012-12-24 56 0 2011-12-24 62 0 2010-12-24 40 0 2009-12-24 39 0 2008-12-24 58 0 2007-12-24 61 0 2006-12-24 59 0 2005-12-24 55 0 2004-12-24 59 0 2003-12-24 56 0 2002-12-24 60 0 2001-12-24 58 0 2000-12-24 41 0

1978 was second only to 2011 for the most snow in a little over a month. 35 day snowfall records around our area: #1....2011....61.6” EWR #2...1978.....53.0” ISP

The only winter from 1970 to 1990 that could run with the snowy 2010’s was 1977-1978. It still remains on my list of favorite winters for snowfall.

The 70’s and 80’s weren’t memorable for big December snowstorms. There was a 40 year lull between 12.0”+ December events in NYC. 0 December 6”+ events from 1970 to 1989. December NYC 12.0”+ snowstorms in NYC since 1947: 2010 2003 2000 1960 1948 1947

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double-digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then. 1 2018 T 17 2 2017 7.7 0 3 2016 3.2 0 4 2015 T 0 5 2014 1.0 0 6 2013 8.6 0 7 2012 0.4 0 8 2011 0.0 0 9 2010 20.1 0 10 2009 12.4 0 11 2008 6.0 0 12 2007 2.9 0 13 2006 0.0 0 14 2005 9.7 0 15 2004 3.0 0 16 2003 19.8 0 17 2002 11.0 0 18 2001 T 0 19 2000 13.4 0

That is some story. It produced The 2nd biggest snowstorm in Detroit history. We wound up on the warm side of the storm. I can remember all the sand pushed up onto the streets from the coastal flooding near the beach. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtwsnowstorm Wind Records (Peak Gusts in MPH) Location Central Park (1951-pres.) ENE 78 mph December 2, 1974 The Battery 113+ mph October 14, 1954

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia. SOI 15 Dec 2018 1012.11 1005.25 16.29 4.29 0.82 14 Dec 2018 1013.05 1005.15 21.69 3.69 0.72 13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 2.36 0.46 11 Dec 2018 1010.69 1006.20 4.00 1.89 0.37

My two big weather memories from that era are Agnes and the December 74 Nor’easter. Agnes flooded out my old LB basement apartment with its torrential downpour. December 74 was my first big coastal flooding event in Long Beach with hurricane force wind gusts.

I got some freezing rain in LB with the Valentine’s Day storm. But it was a much smaller ice accretion than 94. The sleet accumulation in spots was impressive. There was also a surprise freezing drizzle event on a Sunday morning several years ago that created very hazardous driving conditions. Maybe Uncle has some memories of the December 73 ice storm.

Our mid-December 50 is right on schedule. It actually feels good outside. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk

Yeah, that was the most severe ice storm for us in the last 30 years. While the Jan 78 ice storm wasn’t as bad in Long Beach, it was similar to Jan 94 in places like Wantagh.

At least the event in mid-November was snow and not ice. While conditions are slick when snow isn’t cleared, you still can get some traction. It was similar to the traffic jam in the surprise 1-23-87 snowstorm. There still hasn’t been an event in recent years that can rival the slickness of the Jan 86 and 94 events. The late Jan 86 flash freeze produced the worst driving conditions I ever experienced on the Meadowbrook Parkway. It was the only time that I saw cars sliding down backwards into traffic where the Meadowbrook goes over the Southern State. The Jan 94 ice storm was the worst driving that I ever experienced in Long Beach. Cars were sliding sideways into the curbs when slowing for stops.