bluewave

The winter maximum temperatures have been more impressive than the summer maximums since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1949 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0 4 2010 103 0 - 1999 103 0 - 1954 103 0 - 1948 103 0 5 2005 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1991 102 0 - 1977 102 0 - 1953 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1944 102 0 - 1943 102 0 6 2013 101 0 - 2006 101 0 - 1997 101 0 - 1988 101 0 - 1980 101 0 - 1957 101 0 - 1955 101 0 - 1933 101 0 7 2002 100 0 - 1986 100 0 - 1982 100 0 - 1973 100 0 - 1963 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1937 100 0 - 1934 100 0

The NAO and AO indices haven’t been doing this spring blocking pattern justice. The 500 MB blocking over Southern Greenland from April into early May just set a new record. It’s impressive that we were able to sneak in a few mid to upper 80s days from late April into early May. The next round of near 90° heat will have to wait until the high pressure to our north weakens a bit. This will keep an onshore flow influence going a while longer.

While the improvement of the GFS cold bias was encouraging, the overall skill of the model has been poor recently. We can remember the recent long range 980 mb low it had been showing near the benchmark beyond 5 days. These storms have been ending up weaker and further south and east. So it has fallen to near last place behind the Euro and CMC.

The humid subtropical climate zone has expanded north into more of our area on the latest 1991-2020 climate normals.

Blocking looks a little slower to weaken on the 12z guidance. More high pressure showing up over the Maritimes with onshore flow than earlier runs. While it looks like we’ll gradually recover to 70s, more impressive 80s warmth will have to wait a while longer until the flow can go more SW. New EPS run Old run

Euro and EPS upgrade on Tuesday.

The weather swings from warm to cold were even more extreme in Europe this spring.

79 °to snow in a week during May. Data for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2021-05-01 61 32 2021-05-02 79 51 2021-05-03 63 57 2021-05-04 71 57 2021-05-05 57 40 2021-05-06 55 32 2021-05-07 49 32 2021-05-08 49 30 2021-05-09 M M

If the wet snow in PA verifies later, then it will be the 2nd Mother’s Day weekend in a row for the Northeast.

The range between the high and low temperature at Newark from April 1st is one of the greatest since 2010. It’s part of the very strong blocking and highly amplified MJO activity. Models try to weaken the blocking in 8-10 days with more of.SE Ridge. So that will be our next warm up. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to May 9 Minimum Temperature 2021-05-09 89 28 2020-05-09 80 32 2019-05-09 80 32 2018-05-09 94 31 2017-05-09 87 36 2016-05-09 83 26 2015-05-09 87 33 2014-05-09 83 31 2013-05-09 85 31 2012-05-09 88 38 2011-05-09 87 37 2010-05-09 92 38

Strong -NAO and record MJO are producing quite a bit of high temperature volatility. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Max Temperature Departure 2021-04-01 58 1.4 2021-04-02 40 -17.0 2021-04-03 54 -3.4 2021-04-04 67 9.1 2021-04-05 70 11.7 2021-04-06 71 12.3 2021-04-07 71 11.9 2021-04-08 68 8.4 2021-04-09 53 -7.0 2021-04-10 67 6.6 2021-04-11 58 -2.9 2021-04-12 50 -11.3 2021-04-13 66 4.3 2021-04-14 72 9.9 2021-04-15 58 -4.5 2021-04-16 55 -7.9 2021-04-17 54 -9.4 2021-04-18 63 -0.8 2021-04-19 68 3.8 2021-04-20 78 13.5 2021-04-21 75 10.1 2021-04-22 51 -14.3 2021-04-23 67 1.3 2021-04-24 72 5.9 2021-04-25 67 0.6 2021-04-26 64 -2.8 2021-04-27 63 -4.1 2021-04-28 89 21.5 2021-04-29 80 12.2 2021-04-30 73 4.9 2021-05-01 68 -0.4 2021-05-02 86 17.3 2021-05-03 71 2.0 2021-05-04 75 5.7 2021-05-05 64 -5.6 2021-05-06 69 -0.9 2021-05-07 66 -4.2 2021-05-08 55 -16.0

A waterspout to go with the hail today.

Getting pea size hail now on Staten Island.

If we can keep these record 700-500 mb lapse rates going into the summer, then it will be the case.

Heavier showers filling in more quickly just west of NYC than the models indicated yesterday. Impressive cold pool aloft with very steep mid-level lapse rates. So any stronger cells could produce some pea sized hail.