bluewave

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  1. Same here. I won’t believe a pattern change until it shows up inside 7 days. These +EPO /+NAO patterns can be very difficult to dislodge.
  2. That’s really extreme. This experimental forecast that came out in November may be onto something. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020 Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020 04/11/2019 -The serious weather phenomenon "El Niño" could soon occur again in the Pacific region. Researchers at Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel, find that there will probably be another "El Niño" by the end of 2020. The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this. Schematic figure of the pacific. The red rectangle denotes the area where the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is measured. The groundbreaking early forecast is based on a novel algorithm developed by the researchers, which is relies on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last two "El Niño" events more than a year in advance. Such long-term predictions can, for example, help farmers in Brazil, Australia or India to prepare themselves and adjust their sowing accordingly. A probability of around 80 percent "Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable 'El Niño' forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time," stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: "This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights - and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: "The probability of 'El Niño' coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that's pretty significant." Josef Ludescher, who now works at PIK, emphasizes: "We also predicted the absence of another 'El Niño' in 2019 at the end of last year. Only since July have the official forecasts agreed with our forecast." The team is currently expanding the algorithm in order to be able to forecast also the strength and length of the weather phenomenon in the future. Empty fishing nets, torrential rainfall, extended droughts With a conventional early warning period of at most half a year so far, people in the tropics and subtropics are poorly prepared for the often devastating consequences of "El Niño" (Spanish for "the Godly Child") at irregular intervals around Christmas - empty fishing nets and torrential rainfall in Peru as well as extended droughts in parts of South America, Indonesia, Australia and Africa. In addition, the Indian subcontinent may experience a change in monsoon patterns and California may experience more precipitation. For their investigations, the researchers use a network of atmospheric temperature data in the tropical Pacific consisting of 14 grid points in the equatorial "El Niño" core area, and 193 points in the Pacific outside this core area. The physicists had discovered that already in the year before the eruption of an "El Niño", the teleconnection effect between the air temperatures inside and outside of the core area becomes considerably stronger. In particular, they used this effect to optimize their prediction algorithm. The discovery of the new method was first published in summer 2013 in an article in the renowned "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences". Reliable data from the period between the beginning of 1950 and the end of 2011 were available to the researchers for the investigations. The period between 1950 and 1980 served them as a learning phase for determining the alarm thresholds. With the help of this algorithm, the "El Niño" events could then be predicted and compared with the actual events. In 80 percent of the cases, the alarm was correct and the "El Niño" event could be accurately predicted the year before. Article: Josef Ludescher, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (2019): Very early warning signal for El Niño in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood. arXiv:1910.14642 Weblink to the article: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642 Support: This work was supported by the East Africa Peru India Climate Capacities (EPICC) project. This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. Please find more information on the project here: https://www.international-climate-initiative.com/en/nc/details/project/climate-capacity-building-risk-anticipation-and-minimization-18_II_149-3007 For further information please contact: PIK press office Phone: +49 331 288 25 07 E-Mail: [email protected] Twitter: @PIK_Climate www.pik-potsdam.de
  3. This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12 patterns at 500 mb to close out January.
  4. This looks like the first time since 2010 that the NYC January minimum temperature finishes warmer than December. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Season 2019-2020 16 20 16 2018-2019 24 2 2 2017-2018 9 5 5 2016-2017 17 14 14 2015-2016 34 11 11 2014-2015 24 8 8 2013-2014 19 4 4 2012-2013 28 11 11 2011-2012 22 13 13 2010-2011 19 6 6 2009-2010 16 13 13
  5. Historic event for that part of Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html#NL Weather summary for Newfoundland issued by Environment Canada at 3:00 p.m. NST Sunday 19 January 2020. Discussion. A powerful January storm brought intense winds and record-breaking snowfall to parts of Newfoundland on Friday into Friday night. A new all-time daily snowfall record was established at St. John's International Airport. New record: 76.2 cm (January 17, 2020). Previous daily record: 68.4 cm (April 5, 1999). Records began in 1942. The above total is applicable for the January 17 climatological day, which is a 24 hour period ending at 2:30 A.M. NST on January 18. An additional 2.0 cm was recorded after 2:30 A.M. The area of low pressure responsible for the snow and wind emerged from the northeastern United States early Thursday and began to rapidly intensify as it moved over the Gulf of Maine. The system deepened into a powerful storm as it tracked southeast of the Avalon Peninsula on Friday, before departing into the North Atlantic early Saturday. The storm battered the eastern half of the island with heavy snowfall, extremely high winds and damaging coastal storm surge. The following is a summary of information received by Environment and Climate Change Canada as of 2:30 P.M. NST Sunday. Total snowfall (in centimetres): Mount Pearl: 93 Paradise: 91 St. John's East: 82 St. John's International Airport: 78 Mount Carmel: 61 Lethbridge: 48 Gander International Airport: 35 Gander West: 35 St. Lawrence: 31 Grand Falls-Windsor: 10 Maximum wind gusts (in kilometres per hour): Green Island, Fortune Bay: 171 Bonavista: 164 Grates Cove: 156 Heart's Delight-Islington: 156 Cape Pine: 146 Green Island, Trinity Bay: 145 Twillingate: 140 St. John's - Doheney Place: 134 St. John's - East White Hills: 132 St-Pierre: 130 St. John's - Dockyard: 129 Pass Island: 126 Allan's Island: 116 Holyrood: 114 Bishop's Cove: 113 Ramea: 109 St. Lawrence: 106 Burgeo: 105 St. John's West: 105 Deer Park: 101 North Harbour: 101 Gander: 97 At St. John's International Airport the official wind sensor malfunctioned during the storm. Reported winds were estimated to be between 65 and 85 knots (120 to 157 km/h). However, it will likely not be possible to provide a verified maximum gust. The wind sensor at Gander International Airport also briefly malfunctioned. The highest gust at the nearby Gander climate station was measured as reaching 97 km/h. The following area set a daily minimum temperature record on January 18, 2020: Winterland Area (Winterland Branch Hill) New record of -17.9 Old record of -17.8 set in 2001 Records in this area have been kept since 1970 Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were active during the period of record. Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/NLWO
  6. Yeah, we need extreme -EPO or -NAO blocking to get a colder than average winter here. Otherwise, the default pattern has been warmer than normal winters. We got the record -NAO blocking in 09-10 and 10-11. This was followed by the record -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. NYC DJF temperature departures 19-20.....+3.9....through 1-19 18-19.....+1.2 17-18....+1.1 16-17....+4.2....6th warmest 15-16....+5.9....2nd warmest 14-15....-3.7 13-14....-2.2 12-13...+1.2 11-12...+5.4....3rd warmest 10-11....-2.3 09-10....-1.3
  7. Funny how March was the snowiest month of the season for 4 out of the 5 last years in NYC. This is more typical for the Rockies and Plains than NYC. Will February be able to score a victory over March this year? Maybe the extra day in February this year can grab some snow away from what would have normally been March 1st. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 M M M 4.8
  8. Thanks. The good news is we still never had a season that was a complete shoutout. Even in the seasons with the most challenging patterns, we have always found a way to get at least some snow. You wonder how bad the pattern would have to be for NYC to finish with just a T or 0. I think Philly came close in 72-73 with a T. But NYC always had at least some accumulation.
  9. While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.
  10. 1.8” of snow out of 0.65 LE here in SW Suffolk. Just some patches of snow left on the colder surfaces following the rain and temperature reaching 40 degrees.
  11. We are currently in the top 5 for warmest January monthly minimum temperatures around the area. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1990 24 0 - 1932 24 0 3 2002 21 0 - 1993 21 0 - 1953 21 0 4 2020 20 13 - 1949 20 0 5 2001 18 0 - 1913 18 0 - 1911 18 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 1 2 1953 18 0 3 1993 17 2 4 2020 16 13 - 2002 16 0 5 1960 15 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 0 2 2020 18 13 - 1993 18 0 3 2002 15 0 - 1998 15 0 4 1995 14 0 5 2016 13 0 - 2006 13 0
  12. Just changed over to rain in SW Suffolk and 33 degrees.