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bluewave

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  1. Another day that beats guidance with ISP at 53 degrees now.
  2. While we have this extended thaw going, might as well throw in some heavy thunderstorms for good measure around the region on Tuesday. Looks like another winter event that has better midlevel lapse rates than we get during the recent summers. Some locally gusty winds in the stronger cells.
  3. 2017 Global Temperatures

    Great explanation on why Dr. Dessler is raising his climate sensitivity call from 2.7 to 3.4.
  4. Yeah, the WPO block opens a cross polar Siberian channel into Canada during the next few weeks.
  5. It will also be interesting to see if the MJO can linger in the colder phases long enough for us to get a rare cold departure La Nina February. NYC hasn't had a cold La Nina February since the late 60's and early 70's. Even 1996 had enough warmth to pull the departure up to +0.2.
  6. Yeah, the stronger push into MJO 7 explains the EPS faster return to -EPO than what the most recent weekly run was showing. MJO 7 will enhance the winter background -EPO state . A move into 8 after would let the -EPO block expand eastward into +PNA. New run 2/1 -EPO Old run 2/6 -EPO
  7. Everything was more amplified around day 15 including the MJO. Things can get really interesting with such a strong push into 7 and perhaps 8 shortly after.
  8. Coastal sections are in the lead heading into February. ISP....22.0 ACY...24.2
  9. Big snow hole near DC so far this winter.
  10. We'll see if the Euro is correct about the spring ENSO warming in the east like we had last year.
  11. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Great video of the coastal flooding caused by the giant waves hitting the West Coast a few days ago. A couple of wild rides at Mavericks.
  12. Record high tie at ISP. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 240 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2018 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 DEGREES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 2013. IF THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 56 ANOTHER RECORD REPORT WILL BE SENT ONCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY IS REACHED.
  13. In any event, the cold pool was easily forecast by the CCSM4 and the MET Office climate models in 2012 and 2013.
  14. While I am not sure of the exact reason for the NAO shift in 2013, the cold pool was well forecast by the CCSM4 climate model in January 2013. This has been the best multi-year forecast of all time. The SST configuration since then has been spot on. It really nailed the Pacific climate shift and NATL cold pool.
  15. We have gotten some NAO help from time to time like the brief drop before the January 4th blizzard. But the blocking regime since the 13-14 winter has been NEPAC dominant. You can see the NPAC and NATL at levels of record SST warmth since 13-14. Though that cold pool south of Greenland and Iceland has become a prominent feature. 13-14 to 16-17 winters Most recent SST's in Jan 18
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