bluewave

Your area was much more under the influence of the SE Ridge this spring. So you were able to clear out in the warm sector. We were where the warm front kept stalling out. Be interesting to see how far north the warm sector and clearing can get next week. Models begin to amplify the ridge as we head into July. But clouds and convection could be the wild card again as the 50/50 low fights to hang on.

Very close to the spring record for overcast conditions at noon. Most of our stations had 2 out of 3 spring months with around 50% overcast conditions at noon. Climo is generally in the mid 30’s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2019&month=3&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Only the 11th time that Newark didn’t reach 90 in June by the solstice. Models attempt to warm the pattern next week. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can score a post solstice June 90 degree day. Very rare for Newark to go the whole month of June without at least 1 day reaching 90. It has only happened 3 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2009-06-21 83 0 2 2003-06-21 85 0 3 1985-06-21 86 0 - 1948-06-21 86 0 4 2019-06-21 87 3 - 1990-06-21 87 0 - 1980-06-21 87 0 5 1998-06-21 88 0 - 1977-06-21 88 0 - 1972-06-21 88 0 - 1958-06-21 88 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1972 88 0 2 2009 89 0 - 1985 89 0

Record 17 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation in NYC. Can NYC extend the streak into 2020? Stay tuned.... Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 3.15 M M M M M M

Where was this pattern during the winter? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1141076320706863104 Check out the NAO trend for the ECMWF Hires

First flood report of the day. At 2:11 PM EDT, 1 NNW White House Stati [Hunterdon Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports FLOOD. US HWY 22 WEST IS CLOSED IN THE AREA OF VAN HORNE RD DUE TO FLOODING.

^^^^ At 2:47 PM EDT, Marlboro TWP [Monmouth Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH)

1-2” per hour maximum radar rainfall estimates showing up with those training cells moving east.

For the LI crew, heavy downpour moving along the South Shore.

Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3

Yeah, this area is so extensive that it’s able to have more of an impact. But it’s also an indication of the continuing record wet pattern. Brian B had an interesting thread on seasonal temperature trends across the US. While this year is a reflection of the extreme rains and stuck weather patterns, long term there has been muted high summer temperatures there. Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1140048246477168640 100-year trend (change) in summer high (left) and low (right) temperatures based on NCEI county-level climate data. Notice anything different?

The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1140410971426398208 Today's high temperature of 60 degrees at Chicago O'hare is the coldest high during the second half of June that Chicago's experienced in over a quarter century. The last time it was this cold during the second half of June was back on June 20,1992 when the high was 57 degrees

8th longest -NAO period on record. The last top 10 run during winter was 10-11. Parts of the area had 60” of snow in just over 30 days. Remarkable that 5 out of the top 10 longest runs occurred during such a short interval from 2010 to 2012. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1140676758997483520 The current negative North Atlantic Oscillation period has already lasted for 53 days, which makes it 8th longest -NAO periods on record. Still couple of days likely to be added.

It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted. New run Old run

No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.