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  1. The D+8 top analog for the 500 mb pattern was a high impact event for New England. http://www.nytimes.com/1981/12/07/us/unpredicted-storm-brings-new-england-up-to-2-feet-of-snow.html
  2. In any event, this looks like our first -AO close to -4 around Thanksgiving since 2010. 2010 11 26 -4.058
  3. If the two streams phase in time there will be quite a storm. We just need the northern stream to slow enough so it doesn't kick the southern vort too far east.
  4. The whole 120-240 hr is as busy as gets with multiple vorts in both streams under such a strong block. Can the first set of storms around day 5-6 get far enough away to allow the second two pieces energy to phase into one really big event?
  5. Day 8-10 is maximum complexity type of stuff with a split flow under a retrograding block.
  6. I started a new thread dedicated to the high wind potential Sunday.
  7. A very strong cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday morning. It's unusual to see southerly flow soundings across Long Island without an inversion ahead of cold fronts. So there is the potential for stronger winds from aloft to mix down just ahead of and with the cold front. SFC 990 16 15.0 13.1 88 1.9 13.8 208 29 289.0 290.7 287.3 315.9 9.58 2 950 365 12.9 11.9 94 1.0 12.3 211 50 290.3 291.9 287.5 316.4 9.25 3 900 817 9.8 9.8 99 0.1 9.8 216 57 291.7 293.2 287.3 315.7 8.45
  8. Yeah, it's more of a DJF Nina temperature gradient out west than what you generally see in November.
  9. Pretty extreme temperature gradient out west for the first half of November. Bozeman, MT...-15.5 Montrose, CO...+6.9
  10. The EPS and Euro have done very well. Remember the GFS/GEFS lost the record breaking Arctic shot last weekend while the Euro and EPS didn't waiver. This weekend also belongs to the Euro and EPS with the more progressive storm moving through the Northeast. The GEFS and GFS were showing the big closed low getting stuck over the area. Top verification has been EPS and OP Euro Day 1-5 with the EPS day 6-10. Best you can ask for day 11-15 is to begin to pick out some very general teleconnections. But the specifics will be lacking due to the much reduced skill post day 10.
  11. Picked up close to 0.5" in that very heavy downpour. I can imagine the roads were tough with all the fallen leaves making conditions slicker and blocking the storm drains.
  12. Picked up close to 0.5" n that very heavy downpour. I can imagine the roads were tough with all the fallen leaves making conditions slicker and blocking the storm drains.
  13. Very heavy downpour coming through here now with gusty winds.
  14. The record Aleutian blocking ridge dropping the EPO has been our primary cold source in November. If the Aleutian ridge starts to fade with a more of a +EPO, then the PAC Jet will produce a progressive pattern here with fast flow. The next several days of runs will be key as to where this pattern is eventually headed.