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  1. That batch currently south of LI is much lighter than the models were showing yesterday. It has more of a showery look that the solid blob on older model runs. So we'll have to see how much the area east of the Delmarva/NJ can fill in as the day goes on for our rainfall potential.
  2. Classic case of the dry slot east of the cutoff coming in stronger than expected. Some convection trying to get going just east of NC. The progress of that batch will determine how much rain we get here this afternoon and evening.
  3. Record heat back in the 70's was really short lived. We had 20's before the record April warmth and 30's after. The record heat in the summer of 77 was focused into about 10 days in July.
  4. April temperature departures will get a boost when 80's return to close out the month. Be interesting to see if the 90's showing up now down near SNJ can shift further north in later runs.
  5. The first average temp departure day in NYC since 2-14. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 66 138 PM 86 2007 64 2 71 MINIMUM 46 553 AM 32 1930 47 -1 54 AVERAGE 56 56 0 63
  6. We finally get something closer to a spring day today with the areas away from the immediate shore going back into the 60's.
  7. Thanks. All the good posts were getting lost among the increasing spam.
  8. Have no idea of details like that in the current spring forecast barrier period. You can probably flip a coin on the two scenarios below. 1) Models are incorrectly initializing the residual super El Nino warmth from 15-16 as the start of a new El Nino for 17-18 2) Models are correctly predicting yet an another historic first. The fastest return of El Nino following a super El Nino since the late 1800's. While the sample size is small, the 1877-1878..1982-1983..1997-1998...super El Ninos were followed by at least 2 year La Ninas. Same goes for 72-73 if you consider that one super.
  9. A couple of more months of no consecutive -1 AO months and we set the new record for the 2000's. Luckily, we have had a much better snowfall outcome this time than from the previous streaks. More help this time from the -EPO. Current streak no consecutive -1 AO months.....49 months....April 2013 to April 2017 Previous streaks..............................................50 months....April 2005 to March 2009 .....................................................................54 months....May 1996..to October 2000 ....................................................................104 months....April 1987 to November 1995
  10. So tomorrow is the day with breaks of sun and getting back over 60 especially away from the immediate shore. Flip a coin with these where the warm front is stalled nearby. Models originally had Sunday for the cooler day of the two. It will be reversed now.
  11. Don't really remember that storm. Jan 87 was supposed to start as snow and quickly change over to rain. Instead we got close to 10 inches of snow from 11 am to about 5 pm. Jan 78 was also supposed to be rain and turned out to be close to 15 inches of snow.
  12. Maybe if I lived out in the country I would feel differently about extended snow cover. Here's my favorites list in chronological order: Jan 78 surprise....Feb 78...Apr 82....Feb 83...Jan 87 surprise....Jan 96...Feb 03...Dec 10....Jan 11...Jan 16....Christmas 02 honorable mention for the change to heavy snow
  13. I care more about the quality of the snowstorm than how long it stays on the ground after. Unless you live out in a rural area, the snow pack gets dirty pretty fast around here. The dirtiest snow piles I ever saw were in Long Beach with that record snowstorms and snowcover in 10-11.
  14. XMACIS shows missing also. JFK INTL AP, NY Daily Data For a Month September 1953 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 M M M M M M M M M
  15. The big majority of my favorite snowstorms had a -3 or lower AO drop within a month of the storm. The only snowstorm to make the list since the 10-11 winter was January 2016 following the -4.898 AO drop. 12-13..13-14..14-15..16-17 had a number of second and third tier snow events for me. My most memorable winter event from 12-13 to 14-15 was the February 2015 cold and ice on the local waterways. Other than that, it was the disappointment of missing the jackpot in January 2015 and February 2013. I would much rather have a top tier event like January 2016 than extended snow cover of 13-14 or 14-15 with lesser storms.