bluewave

Just add 2.0 to the NYC September average temperature to compensate for the artificial cooling from the trees. Notice how much warmer the downtown NYC average temperatures have been this month. Even Montauk is several degrees warmer this month. Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 74.7 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 73.9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 73.6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 73.5 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 73.3 NY WEST POINT COOP 73.0 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 72.2 NJ HARRISON COOP 72.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 71.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 71.8 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 71.7

Very Niña-like steep -PNA drop to start October as the models get closer. Would match the record warm pool and forcing near Japan. The RMM charts aren’t capturing it since the MJO is displaced further north of the equator closer to the warmest SSTs in the WPAC.

The CFS is the only model that I can find that puts out an OHC forecast. Not that it’s such a great model by any stretch, but it doesn’t look like it makes it back to the peak of 1.40 we saw in June. Wonder what the max possible Nino 3.4 SST is should it level off only around 1.00 into October?

Winter blocking over the Western North American domain peaked in 13-14 and 14-15. Since then it has migrated to the warm season. The warm season blocks were actually more impressive than the cold season ones were. We need to shift the extreme blocks further west back to the cold season. It may be the only way to see a cold winter in the Northeast after the last 8 warm ones.

That was the strongest JF block on record for combined -EPO+PNA 500 mb heights.

Looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern in the stock market. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/identifying-head-and-shoulders-patterns-stock-charts

We can’t get cooler weather anymore these days without some type of extreme of blocking. The EPS has been correcting stronger with the block to our north. So high temperature forecasts have been coming down with so much easterly flow. New run Old run

Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs.

It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.

That’s a good point. While we usually see divergence in the 11-15 day forecasts, the GEPS and GEFS are going -PNA. This is in contrast to the +PNA EPS. So it appears that the GEFS and GEPS are going with the -PDO and record warm pool east of Japan. While the EPS is trying to put its eggs more the El Niño basket. It will be interesting to see how this tug of war between competing influences plays out.

The CFS won the September forecast at 1.66 and the Euro and AUS were too warm at 1.89 and 1.98. 3.4 has been stuck between 1.6 and 1.7 all month as the WWBs were a no show this month.

This could be the first time we didn’t get the usual pressure rise along the equator over Indonesia. So the eqsoi isn’t showing the same response. This is why we didn’t get the usual El Niño strong WWBs. The models didn’t do a good job with this since several like the Euro and Australian had Nino 3.4 averaging close +2.0 for September.

Hard to believe that the last major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas was way back in 1996. All tropical storms or lower end hurricanes. But flooding has been their biggest issue with multiple record breaking events such as Florence. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

Just give me one to two solid months this winter with a raging STJ and some blocking. This new paper is another conformation of the semi-permanent La Niña background state due to the warming WPAC. It is similar to the recent papers showing the stronger and more persistent MJO 4-6 phases. So I am hoping for a decent El Niño pattern before we flip again back to La Niña.