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bluewave

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  1. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Just too difficult to maintain a lead on 2012. Even 2016 eventually fell behind the 2012 melt pace in early July. This June was a few weeks faster.
  2. The cold SST’s are really focused east of New England. In fact, those are the coldest on record for this time of year. The SST’s from the Gulf to the Carolinas remain well above normal. Similar to when those regions got pounded by hurricanes from 2016 to 2018.
  3. Classic backdoor day on Long Island with overcast skies, east winds, and upper 60’s at 2pm.
  4. Very close to the spring record for overcast conditions at noon. Most of our stations had 2 out of 3 spring months with around 50% overcast conditions at noon. Climo is generally in the mid 30’s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2019&month=3&dpi=100&_fmt=png
  5. Only the 11th time that Newark didn’t reach 90 in June by the solstice. Models attempt to warm the pattern next week. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can score a post solstice June 90 degree day. Very rare for Newark to go the whole month of June without at least 1 day reaching 90. It has only happened 3 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2009-06-21 83 0 2 2003-06-21 85 0 3 1985-06-21 86 0 - 1948-06-21 86 0 4 2019-06-21 87 3 - 1990-06-21 87 0 - 1980-06-21 87 0 5 1998-06-21 88 0 - 1977-06-21 88 0 - 1972-06-21 88 0 - 1958-06-21 88 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1972 88 0 2 2009 89 0 - 1985 89 0
  6. Record 17 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation in NYC. Can NYC extend the streak into 2020? Stay tuned.... Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 3.15 M M M M M M
  7. Where was this pattern during the winter? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1141076320706863104 Check out the NAO trend for the ECMWF Hires
  8. First flood report of the day. At 2:11 PM EDT, 1 NNW White House Stati [Hunterdon Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports FLOOD. US HWY 22 WEST IS CLOSED IN THE AREA OF VAN HORNE RD DUE TO FLOODING.
  9. ^^^^ At 2:47 PM EDT, Marlboro TWP [Monmouth Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH)
  10. 1-2” per hour maximum radar rainfall estimates showing up with those training cells moving east.
  11. For the LI crew, heavy downpour moving along the South Shore.
  12. Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3
  13. Yeah, this area is so extensive that it’s able to have more of an impact. But it’s also an indication of the continuing record wet pattern. Brian B had an interesting thread on seasonal temperature trends across the US. While this year is a reflection of the extreme rains and stuck weather patterns, long term there has been muted high summer temperatures there. Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1140048246477168640 100-year trend (change) in summer high (left) and low (right) temperatures based on NCEI county-level climate data. Notice anything different?
  14. The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1140410971426398208 Today's high temperature of 60 degrees at Chicago O'hare is the coldest high during the second half of June that Chicago's experienced in over a quarter century. The last time it was this cold during the second half of June was back on June 20,1992 when the high was 57 degrees
  15. 8th longest -NAO period on record. The last top 10 run during winter was 10-11. Parts of the area had 60” of snow in just over 30 days. Remarkable that 5 out of the top 10 longest runs occurred during such a short interval from 2010 to 2012. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1140676758997483520 The current negative North Atlantic Oscillation period has already lasted for 53 days, which makes it 8th longest -NAO periods on record. Still couple of days likely to be added.
  16. It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted. New run Old run
  17. No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.
  18. Heavy downpour moving through SW Suffolk now with the dew point up to 68.
  19. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    This is the first time since 2012 that we had such a hostile pattern from 05-15 to 6-14.
  20. Guess where the frontal zone gets stuck. Look familiar? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1140217511536943104/photo/1
  21. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440 Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent.
  22. These muted high temperatures through the solstice are unusual by 2010’s standards. Lowest maximum temperature for this decade at EWR and NYC. 2nd coolest at LGA. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2019-06-21 90 6 2 2014-06-21 92 0 3 2015-06-21 93 0 4 2013-06-21 94 0 5 2010-06-21 95 0 6 2018-06-21 96 0 - 2016-06-21 96 0 8 2017-06-21 99 0 - 2012-06-21 99 0 10 2011-06-21 102 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2019-06-21 86 6 2 2015-06-21 89 0 - 2014-06-21 89 0 4 2013-06-21 90 0 5 2018-06-21 92 0 - 2016-06-21 92 0 - 2010-06-21 92 0 8 2017-06-21 94 0 - 2012-06-21 94 0 10 2011-06-21 95 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2014-06-21 88 0 2 2019-06-21 89 6 3 2016-06-21 92 0 - 2015-06-21 92 0 5 2018-06-21 93 0 - 2013-06-21 93 0 7 2010-06-21 94 0 8 2011-06-21 97 0 9 2012-06-21 98 0 10 2017-06-21 101 0
  23. 2nd highest winds of month here on the South Shore with gusts around 40 mph. The strongest winds were a few weeks back with the 50 mph thunderstorm gusts.
  24. That cold pool is related to the AMOC, NAO, and Greenland long term melting. It emerged following the record 2012 melt season. But it shifts its location each year where the predominant North Atlantic vortex sets up. This year it has been lingering near the position of the 50/50 low. So the SE Ridge has been getting suppressed. Last year the cold pool and vortex was further north with a record WAR/SE Ridge pattern for us.
  25. The biggest heat remains to our south through at least the next 10 days. The 50/50 low and cold pool continues to keep the SE Ridge in check. Notice how those features remain in place after the -NAO begins to relax.
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