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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. Pretty impressive for International Falls to have a higher minimum temperature than NYC in late September.
  2. In a decade defined by extremes, October during the 2010's really stands out. 2018 https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall Hurricane Michael Was the Third Most Intense Continental U.S. Landfall on Record, an Unprecedented Location for a Category 5 Landfall https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-landfall-unprecedented-location Pennsylvania Just Had Its Record October Tornado Outbreak, And It Was Its Most Tornadic Day in Over 20 Years https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak 2017 Northeast Storm Undergoes Bombogenesis, Bringing 70+ MPH Gusts, Almost 350 Reports of Wind Damage, Flooding https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding 2016 Hurricane Matthew Shatters Records https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-records-notables-2016 https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas 2015 The Historic South Carolina Floods of October 1–5, 2015 https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SCFlooding_072216_Signed_Final.pdf 2014 Early Snow on the Great Smokies https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/84658/early-snow-on-the-great-smokies 2013 October 3-5, 2013 Historic Blizzard https://www.weather.gov/unr/2013-10-03_05 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201310 2012 On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey Landfall https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/Papers/Hall_Sobel_GRL_resubmitted_revised.pdf 2011 Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rare-october-snowstorm-hammers-northeast-us.html 2010 The Historic Storm of 24-26 October 2010 http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2010/25Oct2010.pdf
  3. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Values within 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) are considered tied. Very large daily drop for so late in the season. We’ll have to see how the NSIDC calculates the final numbers when they issue their annual minimum announcement. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 3.387....2012-9-17 4.100.....2019 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13
  4. Any guesses for this October?
  5. 1988 actually beat it for duration it with 20 consecutive days reaching 90. But 1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. This decade has been so wet, that those 2 records remained out of reach. Really need extreme drought over the Central or Eastern US to get such a long heatwave. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2019-09-17 1 20 1988-08-17 2 14 2010-07-29 3 12 1995-08-04 - 12 1972-07-25 4 11 2012-07-08 - 11 1973-09-05 - 11 1953-09-03 5 10 2006-08-05 - 10 2002-08-19 - 10 1993-07-16
  6. Today is a perfectly clear day with no clouds anywhere near NYC. A rarity over the last 19 months when there always seemed to be clouds popping up.
  7. DC picks up another 2 days of 90 degrees or higher. So they pull ahead of Newark by 32 days which is the highest for the 2010’s. Just goes to show how many times the front has stalled just to the south of our area since the late spring. 90 degree days at DCA and EWR ..........DCA....EWR....difference 2019....57..25....+32 2018....45...36.....+9 2017....43...22....+21  2016....58...40....+18 2015....52....35....+17 2014...24....15.....+9 2013...35.....25.....+10 2012...53.....33......+20 2011....50.....31.....+19 2010....67.....54......+13
  8. Lower dewpoints coming this week after we failed to convert on the recent more humid pattern.
  9. A stalled out front will also do it like with the record flash flooding last September. https://www.weather.gov/okx/FlashFlooding_092518#picture
  10. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    10k daily NSIDC extent decline moves 2019 into 3rd place place on 9-15. Only 6k behind the 2nd place 2007. Currently in 3rd place for NSIDC extent.  3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.161....2019 4.165....2016-9-10 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13
  11. The convection has been mostly a miss for many this month. Islip is only at .33 for September so far. That ties for driest first half September this decade. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Sep 15 Missing Count 1 2019-09-15 0.33 0 - 2010-09-15 0.33 0 3 2014-09-15 0.63 0 4 2016-09-15 1.18 0 5 2013-09-15 1.23 0 6 2018-09-15 1.64 0 7 2011-09-15 2.51 0 8 2012-09-15 2.54 0 9 2017-09-15 2.58 0 10 2015-09-15 2.80 0
  12. Pattern has really dried out with all the Canadian high pressure dominating. NYC could end the record 19 month streak of 3.00 or more inches of precipitation. Many of our stations including NYC have less than 1.00 if rain through the first half of the month. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.82 M M M 37.71
  13. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The late season acceleration of sea ice losses is in response to the return of the strong Arctic dipole anomaly. This was the dominant pattern from May through August 20th. A new Arctic high pressure record was set for this period. Now high pressure has returned to near record levels for this time of year.
  14. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Arctic sea ice pulling closer to 2007 and 2016. Now at 4.171 million sq km for 9-14 with a 38k NSIDC daily decline. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx Currently in 4th place for NSIDC extent.  3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.171....2019 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13
  15. Very consistent pattern. Next big Canadian high with extended easterly flow arriving in a few days. Then maybe 90 degree potential for the warm spots in about a week as the Bermuda high flexes. More easterly flow Next 90 in warm spots?
  16. Very sharp temperature gradient across the region this September so far. Cool in New England with record heat over the Mid-Atlantic.
  17. bluewave

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Large 71k NSIDC daily extent decline for so late in the season. The 9-13 extent drops below the previous minimum recorded back on 9-4. This puts 2019 in 4th place not far behind 2007 and 2016. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx Currently in 4th place for NSIDC extent.  3.387....2012-9-17 4.155....2007-9-18 4.165....2016-9-10 4.209....2019 4.344....2011-9-11 4.433....2015-9-9 4.586....2008-9-19 4.615....2010-9-21 4.656....2018-9-23 4.665....2017-9-13
  18. 2nd coolest first few weeks of September for our area this decade. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 13 Missing Count 1 2017-09-13 66.7 0 2 2019-09-13 71.2 0 3 2013-09-13 73.2 0 4 2011-09-13 73.7 0 5 2010-09-13 73.8 0 6 2012-09-13 73.9 0 7 2018-09-13 74.3 0 8 2014-09-13 75.1 0 9 2016-09-13 75.5 0 10 2015-09-13 77.7 0
  19. bluewave

    Autumn 2019 Banter Thread

    Don’t try this at home. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/12/south-east-spain-battered-by-heaviest-rainfall-on-record
  20. The big high driving the easterly flow is close to record levels for September. The barometer reading in NYC is at 30.49. The record highest for September is around 30.58.
  21. Continuation of the less warm is the new cool pattern for us. Newark was +0.4 in August and +0.3 through the first 12 days of September. With the exception of July, the strongest heat this warm season has missed to our south and west. This is how DCA is ahead of EWR by 30 days of 90 or greater. It’s a first for the 2010’s. The normal amount is 9 to 21 days. 90 degree days at DCA and EWR ..........DCA....EWR....difference 2019....55...25....+30 2018....45...36.....+9 2017....43...22....+21 2016....58...40....+18 2015....52....35....+17 2014...24....15.....+9 2013...35.....25.....+10 2012...53.....33......+20 2011....50.....31.....+19 2010....67.....54......+13 10 day forecast temperature departure higher to our south and west
  22. Our climate has been becoming a much wetter one. That 80 inch amount may be a bit overdone with the rain gauge problem in 1983. But White Plains picked up 74.15, so it may not be that far off.
  23. Same old story since late July with the record heat remaining to our south. Looks like Atlantic City tied their record high of 94 degrees. Less warm is the new cool for us. 9/12 94 in 1961 91 in 1952 89 in 2005+
  24. That was a very impressive US drought in the early to mid 50’s. Most of our higher count 100 degree day years had extensive drought in the Central or Eastern US. We briefly got into this geographic severe drought regime from 2010-2013. Newark was able to set the all-time record high of 108 during the historic Southern Plains drought in 2011.This pattern reversed in the following years with the record rainfall, more clouds, and record dewpoints limiting 100 degree potential.
  25. The latest 90 at JFK was 10-8-07 with the 2nd on 9-24-17. The latest 100 was 8-27-48 with 8-20-83 coming in 2nd. But it’s possible 9-2-53 was last 100 since the JFK data is missing for that month. 1953 still stands as our greatest late season heatwave. One of the few heat records that the 2010’s couldn’t beat. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 1953-08-24 90 1953-08-25 93 1953-08-26 91 1953-08-27 93 1953-08-28 100 1953-08-29 100 1953-08-30 100 1953-08-31 102 1953-09-01 96 1953-09-02 105 1953-09-03 94
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