bluewave

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  1. You can see how quickly the models pull the ridge back to the Aleutians. This strong +EPO/-PDO is different from recent years. So this March may turn out warmer than we have experienced from 2017 to 2019.
  2. Yeah, it will be interesting to see if we can pick up any snow this March. The lack of measurable snowfall since January 20th is different from recent years. This is the first time since 2002 with no measurable snowfall during the peak of the season. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 20 Missing Count 2020-02-20 T 3 2019-02-20 2.9 0 2018-02-20 5.9 0 2017-02-20 10.4 0 2016-02-20 31.5 0 2015-02-20 24.0 0 2014-02-20 42.1 0 2013-02-20 13.7 0 2012-02-20 4.5 0 2011-02-20 25.8 0 2010-02-20 17.3 0 2009-02-20 7.3 0 2008-02-20 2.8 0 2007-02-20 4.3 0 2006-02-20 26.9 0 2005-02-20 15.5 0 2004-02-20 11.0 0 2003-02-20 28.6 0 2002-02-20 T 0
  3. The bar is set pretty low this year. All NYC needs is 2.6 inches of snow in March to make it the snowiest month of the season. It would be the 5th time since 14-15 if NYC can pull it off. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T M M 4.8
  4. Just a remarkable shift to winter warmth since December 2015. Your area is also in 4th place. 3 top 4 finishes in 5 winters is as extreme as it gets. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature > 32 Missing Count 1 2015-2016 44 0 2 2016-2017 40 0 3 2011-2012 38 0 - 2001-2002 38 0 4 2019-2020 36 11
  5. NYC moves into 4th place for most winter days with the low temperature remaining above freezing. Today was the 49th day. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Number of Days Min Temperature > 32 Missing Count 1 2011-2012 58 0 - 1997-1998 58 0 2 2016-2017 55 0 - 2015-2016 55 0 - 2001-2002 55 0 3 1931-1932 53 0 4 1998-1999 49 0 2019-2020 49 11
  6. Today is 19th day to reach 50 or warmer at Newark since December 22nd. It’s the 4th highest number of days for the time period. Feels like an early spring day out there. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 50 Dec 22 to Feb 17 Missing Count 1 2006-02-17 22 0 2 2012-02-17 21 0 - 1990-02-17 21 0 - 1932-02-17 21 0 3 1991-02-17 20 0 - 1950-02-17 20 0 4 1972-02-17 19 0 - 1933-02-17 19 0 2020-02-17 19 0
  7. It’s been a real challenge with this Niña background pattern. This is the first time since the early 2010’s that the +EPO was strong enough to drop the -PDO this much.
  8. We will have to make due with a much weaker -EPO than we had near the end of Feb and start of Mar last year. The AO is also much more positive this year coming off the current record breaking period. Looks like a transient +PNA before the ridge pulls back near the Aleutians.
  9. Models have been too aggressive with the -EPO long range all winter. So this is no big surprise. It looks like we may get a transient +PNA near the start of March before the ridge pulls back closer to the Aleutians. We had a decent -EPO at this time last year which extended into March.
  10. This is only our 6th time with no measurable snowfall during the peak snowfall season so far. It’s also the first time that this has occurred since 2002 and 1998. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 16 Missing Count 1 1890-02-16 0.0 0 2 2020-02-16 T 0 - 2002-02-16 T 0 - 1998-02-16 T 0 - 1981-02-16 T 0 - 1968-02-16 T 0 - 1900-02-16 T 0
  11. It will be interesting to see what the Fram export data looks like with the record +AO. But there is far less older MYI available be exported now compared to the early 90’s. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-04741-0 On average, the mean annual ice export was about 3127 km3 from 1979/1980–1987/1988, about 3940 km3 from 1988/1989–1994/1995, while it was only about 2965 km3 from 1995/1996–2011/2012. Obviously, the abrupt increase in ice export since 1988/1989 is closely related to the phase evolution of AO from negative to strongly positive, and has been investigated by previous studies (e.g., Kwok et al. 2004; Kwok 2009). https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/05/ Younger sea ice tends to be thinner than older ice. Therefore, sea ice age provides an early assessment of the areas most susceptible to melting out during the coming summer. The Arctic sea ice cover continues to become younger (Figure 4), and therefore, on average, thinner. Nearly all of the oldest ice (4+ year old), which once made up around 30 percent of the sea ice within the Arctic Ocean, is gone. As of mid-April 2019, the 4+ year-old ice made up only 1.2 percent of the ice cover (Figure 4c). However, 3 to 4-year-old ice increased slightly, jumping from 1.1 percent in 2018 to 6.1 percent this year. If that ice survives the summer melt season, it will somewhat replenish the 4+ year old category going into the 2019 to 2020 winter. However, there has been little such replenishment in recent years.
  12. Volcanism may have been the trigger leading to more extensive Arctic sea ice coverage. This would make sense since the cooling began several centuries before the solar minimum. Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea‐ice/ocean feedbacks https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL050168 16] Our precisely dated records demonstrate that the expansion of ice caps after Medieval times was initiated by an abrupt and persistent snowline depression late in the 13th Century, and amplified in the mid 15th Century, coincident with episodes of repeated explosive volcanism centuries before the widely cited Maunder sunspot minimum (1645–1715 AD [Eddy, 1976]). Together with climate modeling and supported by other proxy climate reconstructions, our results suggest that repeated explosive volcanism at a time when Earth's orbital configuration resulted in low summer insolation across the NH acted as a climate trigger, allowing Arctic Ocean sea ice to expand. Increased sea ice export may have engaged a self‐sustaining sea‐ice/ocean feedback unique to the northern North Atlantic region that maintained suppressed summer air temperatures for centuries after volcanic aerosols were removed from the atmosphere. The coincidence of repeated explosive volcanism with centuries of lower‐than‐modern solar irradiance (Figure 2a) [Schmidt et al., 2011] indicates that volcanic impacts were likely reinforced by external forcing [Mann et al., 2009], but that an explanation of the LIA does not require a solar trigger.
  13. Welcome to the all or nothing snowfall era. ISP has been either much above or much below since 2010. A midrange 20’s snowfall season has been missing. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2020-04-30 6.8 76 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0
  14. Even for the snowy 2010’s, March 2018 was a big outlier for late season snowfall. ISP broke the March record with 31.9 inches of snow. The interesting stat is that ISP has had only 19.6 inches of snowfall for the last 2 winters. So more than 10 inches less than March 2018. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 M M 6.8
  15. 14 degrees in NYC is the 4th warmest winter minimum temperature on record. ISP is 2nd warmest at 13 degrees. Albany comes in at 4th warmest and only the 8th time above 0. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 19 0 2 1931-1932 18 0 3 1974-1975 15 0 4 2019-2020 14 14 - 2016-2017 14 0 - 2005-2006 14 0 - 2000-2001 14 0 - 1997-1998 14 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 15 0 - 1997-1998 15 0 3 2019-2020 13 14 Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 9 0 2 1936-1937 4 0 - 1889-1890 4 0 4 2019-2020 1 14 - 2016-2017 1 0 - 2005-2006 1 0 - 2001-2002 1 0 - 2000-2001 1 0
  16. This Niña background pattern hasn’t worked for us the last 2 winters when combined with a struggling El Niño. We did fine with snowfall when combined with an actual La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. So maybe we need a stronger El Niño or return to official La Niña in future winters to bring the snowfall back. The WPAC warm pool into the IO produces the Niña-like state. It also leads to stronger and more frequent MJO phase 5-7 events for us. So it’s no surprise that the CIPS shows a strong ridge near the Aleutians in the means for March. It has been stuck in that zone north of Hawaii for the last 2 winters.
  17. We have seen plenty of hard AO /NAO reversals in recent years. Just look at the record -NAO from last April through November that suddenly reversed. The only other era with close to such an extreme +NAO +AO like we have now was 1989 to 1993. Most of those years featured a flip to more negative at some point in the spring or summer. But it’s difficult to speculate with the record breaking +AO phase right now.
  18. The default summer pattern since 2010 has been above normal to record warmth and dewpoints. But the specific details this year look pretty complex. We currently have one strongest +AO patterns on record. Does this continue or reverse in time for the summer? The Niña -like ridge north of Hawaii has flipped the -PDO to most negative in years. Will this continue or can the El Niño try to come on to counter that Pacific pattern? Plenty of mixed signals going into the spring.
  19. We would definitely need some help from the -EPO/+PNA as that Atlantic vortex is on steroids. Maybe the current SOI drop and +AAM spike could help out in this regard. Current SOI 15 Feb 2020 1009.07 1008.90 -21.95 -2.09 -4.47 14 Feb 2020 1009.59 1008.40 -17.05 -1.79 -4.32 13 Feb 2020 1010.64 1008.50 -12.49 -1.61 -4.11 12 Feb 2020 1012.36 1009.50 -9.03 -1.55
  20. Seems like the records closer your area only go back to 1998. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2020-04-30 5 76 - 1998-04-30 6 95 3 2008-04-30 3 0 4 2007-04-30 2 0 - 2002-04-30 2 5 6 2017-04-30 0 0 - 2012-04-30 0 5 - 2010-04-30 0 1
  21. The only long term records for SE interior NY appear to be POU. Looks like the last time the seasonal minimum was this high was back in 1998. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1937-04-30 10 4 2 1932-04-30 8 3 3 1998-04-30 6 8 - 1947-04-30 6 0 4 2020-04-30 5 76 - 1953-04-30 5 0 5 2008-04-30 3 0 - 2007-04-30 3 0 - 1944-04-30 3 0 6 2002-04-30 2 0 - 1992-04-30 2 0 7 2012-04-30 1 1
  22. At least we can brag that we got some small El Niño-like element to the pattern. The coldest temperature of the season often comes in February during an El Niño. The low of 14 in NYC is officially the coldest of the season. The last time this occurred was was with the super El Niño in 2016 and weaker one in 2015. Coldest temperature season in NYC Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2019-2020 16 20 14 14 2018-2019 24 2 11 2 2017-2018 9 5 16 5 2016-2017 17 14 19 14 2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1 2014-2015 24 8 2 2
  23. Models are indicating another Niño-like +AAM rise near the end of February and start of March. While it is a warm pattern in late January like we recently experienced, it can offer a +PNA near the start of March. So this may be our last shot a getting a small snow event to close out the season. But there may not be any guarantees since it will still be combined with the lingering Niña-like Pacific background pattern.
  24. Models really dry things out over the next 10 days with high pressure dominating. Only 1 cutter showing up for next Tuesday. It will be a nice break from all the clouds and showers during the first half of the month.