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bluewave

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  1. The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.
  2. The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. New run Old run
  3. The first 45° of the season came in a bit earlier than the recent average since 2010 at Islip. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp 45 First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-03 (2015) 09-18 (2013) 111 Mean 05-15 10-04 141 Maximum 06-01 (2020) 10-18 (2021) 159 2022 05-09 (2022) 44 09-24(2022) 45 - 2021 05-28 (2021) 44 10-18 (2021) 45 142 2020 06-01 (2020) 44 09-21 (2020) 44 111 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 10-05 (2019) 42 142 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159 2014 05-03 (2014) 44 09-23 (2014) 45 142 2013 05-27 (2013) 43 09-18 (2013) 44 113 2012 05-12 (2012) 43 09-25 (2012) 44 135 2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 40 152 2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-09 (2010) 44 148
  4. Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this.
  5. Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.
  6. Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-01 (2018) 09-02 (2017) 110 Mean 05-16 09-28 134 Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-18 (2021) 164 2021 05-30 (2021) 48 10-18 (2021) 46 140 2020 05-21 (2020) 47 09-19 (2020) 48 120 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 09-19 (2019) 49 126 2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164 2017 05-14 (2017) 44 09-02 (2017) 49 110 2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146 2015 06-02 (2015) 49 10-02 (2015) 48 121 2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150 2013 05-27 (2013) 46 09-15 (2013) 48 110 2012 05-11 (2012) 48 09-25 (2012) 48 136 2011 05-06 (2011) 44 10-02 (2011) 49 148 2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-03 (2010) 49 142
  7. Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.
  8. The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north. So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not.
  9. Impressive Fiona wave break will set up an strong blocking pattern for the rest of the month. First lows near 50° in NYC by Saturday. Then the next tropical system gets stuck underneath strong Canadian high pressure to the north. So that my be our best shot at soaking rains around the area depending on the exact track.
  10. Looks like Canadian high pressure will dominate later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow in the forecast. Any tropical moisture coming underneath will help us out.
  11. The Fiona wave break will produce a record 590dm ridge south of Greenland. So Friday into Saturday looks like the first actual fall weather of the season. Lows near 50° in NYC and highs not getting out of the 60s for a day or two. We continue to need record blocking just to get some cooler weather around here.
  12. That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ September 19, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987 Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959
  13. It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week
  14. The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.
  15. Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.
  16. Fiona would be a nice cold front for us on the 0z Euro.
  17. Another factor is how the record Bering Sea storm for September will influence the 500 mb pattern.
  18. First refreshing airmass since last spring across the area. We needed stronger enough blocking to pull it off. The alignment of the blocking and trough to the north will eventually influence the track of Fiona.
  19. Only .16 since Monday at the Wantagh mesonet. Precipitation 6 hours: 0.16″ 1 day: 0.16″
  20. Similar finish to last year with near a 5 million sq km September average extent.
  21. Record heat potential to start astronomical fall next week. The Euro, GFS, and GEM agree that low to mid 90s will be possible. It would be the most impressive late season heat since 2019. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-09-12 9/20 92 in 1983 88 in 1946 87 in 1985 9/21 90 in 1940 88 in 1998 88 in 1980 9/22 94 in 1970 93 in 1931 92 in 1980 9/23 94 in 1970 93 in 2019 93 in 1959 9/24 92 in 2017 92 in 1959 89 in 1970 9/25 91 in 1970 90 in 2017 90 in 2010+ 9/26 90 in 2007 90 in 1958 88 in 1970 9/27 91 in 1998 89 in 1933 88 in 2017 9/28 87 in 2014 86 in 2019 85 in 1954+ 9/29 89 in 1945 83 in 1959 82 in 2015+ 9/30 89 in 1986 85 in 1954 82 in 1960+ 10/1 85 in 1986 85 in 1950 84 in 2019+ 10/2 96 in 2019 86 in 2013 86 in 2002+
  22. Another North Shore special with very little on the South Shore.
  23. That was a preview in September 84 of Newark going to -8 in January 85. Much more cold air available in those days. That was the last time Newark almost got down to -10. 9/16 42 in 1984 46 in 1966 47 in 2007 1/21 -8 in 1985 3 in 1984 4 in 2019
  24. Endless summer pattern so far this month across the area. Many urban stations still haven’t fallen below 60° yet. Several suburban stations haven’t dropped below 55° yet. These are among the warmest minimums we have seen this far into September. There is a chance that we may finally pass these early fall benchmarks by later this week with a brief cool down. But temperatures rebound back to around 90° by early next week. So September has become more like a 4th month of summer rather than the first month of fall. Very warm minimums so far across the area Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 63 0 2 2022-09-12 62 1 3 2020-09-12 61 0 - 2016-09-12 61 0 - 2014-09-12 61 0 - 1996-09-12 61 0 4 1966-09-12 60 0 - 1947-09-12 60 0 - 1905-09-12 60 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 57 0 - 2011-09-12 57 0 - 1996-09-12 57 6 2 2022-09-12 56 1 3 2005-09-12 55 0 - 1999-09-12 55 5 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 1996-09-12 58 0 2 2020-09-12 57 0 - 2018-09-12 57 0 - 2014-09-12 57 0 3 2022-09-12 56 1 - 2016-09-12 56 0 - 2015-09-12 56 0 - 1983-09-12 56 0 Brief cool down later this week 90° readings may return by early next week
  25. 4th warmest summer on record for the NNJ and NYC/LI climate zones. NYC-LI 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 128 202006 - 202008 74.3°F 127 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 126 202206 - 202208 74.1°F 125 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 124 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 124 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 122 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 121 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 121 202106 - 202108 73.4°F 121 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 NNJ 201006 - 201008 73.6°F 128 202006 - 202008 73.6°F 128 200506 - 200508 73.5°F 126 202206 - 202208 73.3°F 125 201606 - 201608 73.2°F 124 199906 - 199908 72.9°F 123 201806 - 201808 72.7°F 122 202106 - 202108 72.7°F 122 194906 - 194908 72.5°F 120 200206 - 200208 72.5°F 120 201106 - 201108 72.5°F 120 201906 - 201908 72.5°F 120
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