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bluewave

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  1. bluewave

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/18/fragrant-february-declared-rhs-say-hot-summer-mild-winter-have/amp/?__twitter_impression=true The coming weeks are set to be the most mild on record for the month of February, and now the Royal Horticultural Society say it's set to be the most fragrant too. Britain's garden's are going in to bloom earlier this year, with seasonal flowers including witch hazel, winter-flowering viburnums, shrubby honeysuckles and Edgeworthia flowering larger and more profusely as a result of last year's hot, sunny summer and a lack of hard frosts this winter. https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1099333078915403776 Blackthorn blossom in Reading today... and even a few honey bees at work on some of these flowers! What month is it?
  2. The pattern that lead to the record warmth in the Western Pacific last fall may turn out to be a piece of the puzzle. https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2018/11/06/record-north-pacific-warmth/ The difference in the spatial distribution of warm anomalies is quite evident when we compare the subsurface temperature anomalies at 0-100m depth from October 2015 and October 2018; see the figures below. Based on NOAA’s GODAS data from last month, the most anomalous warmth is now actually in the northwestern, rather than the northeastern, North Pacific, and this contrasts strongly with the situation at the end of the 2013-2015 “blob” regime. So to summarize, we’ve seen a dramatic return to the positive NPM phase in recent months, but so far the pattern of unusual warmth is not particularly “blob”-like, and in fact the subsurface data points to the northwestern North Pacific as the focus of the current “marine heatwave”. And one more piece of analysis to conclude and to illustrate just how unusual the current situation is: based on NOAA’s GODAS data, the upper 100m of the North Pacific Ocean north of 40°N is now warmer (relative to normal) than at any time in the modern data record (1980-present).
  3. Everybody will be asking those questions after this winter. This has to be one of the most La Niña-like 500 mb and temperature departure distribution patterns ever during an El Niño. Strong ridge north of Hawaii with fast Pacific Jet are features of some of least favorable La Niña years like 07-08 and 11-12. The early clue was the record breaking SOI rise from the fall into the early winter.
  4. Yeah, we had much more snow during several milder and similar temperature winters during this decade. While 2012 was a milder DJF, we had a similar amount of snowfall for this DJF. Very little you can do with an unfavorable Pacific pressure and jet pattern. Even if it was a colder winter than 2012. NYC DJF snowfall 2018-2019 3.6 8 2017-2018 23.8 0 2016-2017 20.5 0 2015-2016 31.9 0 2014-2015 31.5 0 2013-2014 57.3 0 2012-2013 14.1 0 2011-2012 4.5 0 2010-2011 60.9 0 2009-2010 51.4 0 NYC DJF average temperature 2018-2019 36.4 7 2017-2018 36.2 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.0 0 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0 2012-2013 36.8 0 2011-2012 40.5 0 2010-2011 32.8 0 2009-2010 33.8 0
  5. This has been the worst DJF configuration of the North Pacific Jet for us since the 11-12 winter. December 2015 was pretty extreme with the super El Niño and +13 temperature departure. But since it was a STJ, the blocking in January forced it to the south and we got our historic blizzard. The ridge staying stuck north of Hawaii this winter just kept it flowing too far to the north below Alaska. It overpowered the weaker STJ causing those suppressed snowstorms to our south. The northern stream has been going non stop with all the huggers and cutters.
  6. Models just weren’t able to handle the fast Pacific Jet this winter. That’s why the forecasts beyond week 1 were so poor.
  7. Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge models were showing a few days ago. New run Old run
  8. The record snow in Seattle is all in February. It’s the deep trough centered near the Pacific Northwest.
  9. bluewave

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Aboyne in Aberdeenshire saw the mercury rise to a maximum temperature of 18.3C yesterday afternoon. The peak beat the previous high of 17.9C, which was recorded in Aberdeen on 22 February 1897. Read more at: https://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-smashes-maximum-temperature-record-for-february-1-4876990
  10. bluewave

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/21/scotland-breaks-all-time-february-temperature-record-unusual-winter-europe-heatwave/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.767787072a48 Aboyne, Scotland, which is located farther north than Kodiak Island, Alaska, reached 65 degrees Thursday afternoon. It’s a new maximum temperature record for February across all of Scotland. The previous record stood for 122 years — since 1897 This comes just a week after Berlin set its record high temperature for February at 62 degrees.
  11. You know the PAC Jet is as bad as it can be when NYC can’t get more than 5” during DJF. 1 1997-1998 0.5 0 2 1918-1919 1.1 0 3 1972-1973 2.6 0 4 1931-1932 2.7 0 5 1991-1992 3.2 0 6 2001-2002 3.5 0 7 2018-2019 3.6 9 8 2011-2012 4.5 0 9 1989-1990 5.0 0
  12. Last March was probably the maximum possible snowfall at a place like ISP for so little cold. 2018....31.9....38.0....-1.3 1967....23.3.....32.5...-6.8 2015....19.7.....35.2....-4.1
  13. Yeah, it helps. Seems like NYC has been too far west for the best rates and amounts throughout the season. Dec 09, Feb 13, Jan 15, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18..,etc.
  14. It could also be unlucky storm tracks near NYC in March. The first prime March snowstorm track has been the coastal hugger like March 2017 that favored areas NW of NYC. The 2nd main track like last March was just wide of the benchmark which favored Suffolk. So in both cases NYC misses the March jackpot. You can also see elements of this in other years like March 2001, 2009, and later with April 2003.
  15. While it gets colder during the first week of March with the -EPO block, the Pacific Jet looks relentless. Need to see some improvement there if we want to avoid cold and dry.
  16. bluewave

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/status/1098291110038900736 Not only does our 30.4" so far this month set a new record for February, but this is now tied with November of 1983 of the 10th snowiest calendar month on record for the Twin Cities. This is also the first time we've topped 30" since Dec of 2010 (Domebuster!).
  17. Yeah, wind gusts to 50 mph look likely with the potential for 60 mph or higher. This is our first 75 mb pressure gradient of 2019.
  18. A continuation of the big temperature swings theme this winter. Warm ups coming for Thursday and the weekend. Followed by a late season -EPO cool down to start March.
  19. bluewave

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    Snow arrived right on time between 12-1pm here in SW Suffolk. Came in moderate and has become lighter now. Coating on the ground.
  20. bluewave

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    This was a good week for a South Florida vacation if you really like the heat. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1097961030234329090 2/19/19: Naples' high temperature as of 3:06 PM has reached 90 degrees. This breaks last year's record for warmest February day on record, and is the earliest 90 degree day on record. Records in Naples date back to 1942.
  21. Another new and impressive weather record for the 2010’s. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-mph-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds/?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true The jet stream, the high-altitude air current along which storms travel, is furious. The river of air was clocked at more than 230 mph over Long Island on Monday. That measure comes from the 250 millibar pressure level, meaning it was at a height above 75 percent of the atmosphere’s mass. It sets the record for the fastest 250 millibar wind speed ever recorded over New York and, probably, the country. A Virgin Atlantic flight from Los Angeles to London peaked at a whopping 801 mph Monday evening 35,000 feet over Pennsylvania. “[N]ever ever seen this kind of tailwind in my life as a commercial pilot,” tweeted Peter James, a jet captain.
  22. It’s possible. This recent paper is an interesting read. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL077325 Plain Language Summary The effect of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the global climate system is investigated using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. This study shows that the tropics respond to the ice loss within two to three decades via dynamical ocean processes and air-sea interaction. This tropical response in turn modifies the atmospheric circulation and precipitation responses over the North Pacific. This fast response indicates that ocean dynamics needs to be represented for an accurate picture of the global impact of Arctic sea ice loss.
  23. It could some new seasonal response in the Pacific to the overall pattern.
  24. I wonder what is causing these big SOI drops during the last 3 Februaries? https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt 2017 46 1009.58 1009.75 -23.58 2017 47 1005.99 1009.60 -40.11 2017 48 1003.17 1009.25 -51.97 2017 49 1005.90 1009.55 -40.30 2017 50 1008.76 1008.05 -19.36 2017 51 1010.46 1007.65 -9.27 2017 52 1011.50 1009.20 -11.72 2017 53 1012.49 1009.90 -10.33 2017 54 1012.95 1009.10 -4.27 2017 55 1012.38 1008.80 -5.57 2018 32 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 2018 33 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 2018 34 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25 2018 35 1006.55 1006.45 -22.29 2018 36 1006.06 1005.45 -19.84 2018 37 1005.29 1006.20 -27.14 2018 38 1005.02 1006.10 -27.95 2018 39 1006.19 1006.35 -23.54 2018 40 1008.99 1006.40 -10.33 2018 41 1011.01 1006.65 -1.83 2018 42 1010.63 1007.10 -5.81 2018 43 1009.04 1007.00 -12.97 2018 44 1006.84 1006.55 -21.37 2018 45 1007.05 1006.90 -22.05 2018 46 1010.15 1008.30 -13.88 2018 47 1012.74 1009.60 -7.68 2018 48 1011.37 1009.40 -13.30 2018 49 1010.76 1008.75 -13.11 2018 50 1010.23 1008.70 -15.42 2018 51 1010.05 1007.95 -12.68 2018 52 1011.69 1007.75 -3.84 2019 39 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 2019 40 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 2019 41 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 2019 42 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 2019 43 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 2019 44 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 2019 45 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 2019 46 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 2019 47 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 2019 48 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 2019 49 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 2019 50 1005.91 1010.25 -43.61
  25. Strongest -SOI drop in 2 years to -43.61. The atmosphere finally got the memo that this is an El Niño winter. Goes with the idea of a cool down at least near the beginning of March. So spring will have to wait a bit longer. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt 2019 39 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 2019 40 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 2019 41 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 2019 42 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 2019 43 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 2019 44 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 2019 45 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 2019 46 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 2019 47 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 2019 48 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 2019 49 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 2019 50 1005.91 1010.25 -43.61
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