bluewave

The stuck fronts are a function of the increasing summer high pressure over Eastern Canada building down to east of New England at times. This also enhances the dew points with more onshore flow. Also leads to multiple flash flooding events across the area. We used to get more high pressure to our west with offshore flow prior to this decade. Those were the years you highlighted with more 90° days at JFK. These days the higher 90° counts are west of the sea breeze front in NJ.

The most east based super El Niño event on record for this time of year.

We can add August 2026 to the list also. Monthly Data for August 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.43 NJ HARRISON COOP 11.74 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.93 NY FRANKLIN SQUARE 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.90 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.84 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10.16

Thread] [1/6] I think we can now confidently say that France is going through the greatest national agricultural disaster since 1945. Without public aid, 30,000 to 35,000 farms could find themselves in bankruptcy, which is nearly 10% of French agricultural holdings. That's monstrous. The exceptional weather conditions we're experiencing today are getting closer to what will become much more frequent, or even ordinary, in the coming decades. 2026 will be in line with the average for 2050. We'll see even hotter and more extreme years than 2026. The realization is therefore becoming hard to avoid: our agricultural model is not sufficiently prepared for the climate change that's coming. It's also the result of a collective political failure: successive governments haven't fully grasped the scale of the upheavals that climate change is already imposing on our agriculture, and will impose tomorrow. It's no longer just about repairing the damage after every drought, heatwave, or poor harvest. We now need to undertake a structural transformation of our agriculture. Here are the most reliable yield losses I could find compared to the average of the last 5 years (only for spring and summer crops). Rate this translation:

I think the recent leveling off of Nino 3.4 SSTs was a result of the record WWBs pushing the warm pool further east than originally forecast. The latest EPS extended now has a warmer Nino 1+2 forecast than the seasonal model on August 5th was indicating by October. So it will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal looks like when it updates on September 5th.

This was the 60th anniversary of the late August 1986 record cold outbreak. Was the last time MPO went below freezing and NYC reached 50° in August. It was followed by the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ. Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 31 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 34 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 35 NJ NEWTON COOP 35 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 36 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 37 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 37 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 38 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 38 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 39 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 39 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 39 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 39 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 39 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 39 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 39 Data for August 28, 1986 through August 30, 1986 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 34 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 35 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 NJ CRANFORD COOP 39 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 39 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 40 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 41 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 42 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 42 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 42 NY WESTBURY COOP 42 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 42 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 43 NY SCARSDALE COOP 43 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 43 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY WEST POINT COOP 45 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 45 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 45 CT GROTON COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 46 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 46 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 46 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 48 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 48 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 50 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 51 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 Snowfall Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 86.6 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 70.0 PA LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 59.6 PA COATESVILLE 2 W COOP 59.3 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 53.9 NJ LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 53.3 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 51.0 PA GLENMOORE COOP 50.0 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 48.1 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 47.3

Very impressive for that area.

The current record breaking +1.81° is well ahead of what any of the models were forecasting for this month.

Interesting post about the SOI with how east based this event is becoming. I am conducting an interesting experiment due to the fact that this El Niño is exceptionally east based weighted, so much so that it has actually caused sea level pressure anomalies to shift slightly eastward. This in my amount of studying and research shows that this might be skewing the traditional Troup SOI index which is ran traditionally from Darwin, Australia to Tahiti in the central Pacific. so the new index still uses the same formula and is ran from Darwin in Australia, but here’s the difference it now runs to Nuku Hiva island, which is almost 700 miles northeast of Tahiti, but in a latitude since it lines up pretty well with Darwin, which gets this a better result. I found that the SOI in my research and studying was around 10 to 15 more into the negative compared to the traditional index. The picture below really tells the difference on August 28. I used the Tahiti to Darwin formula which is a traditional version which is still used by BOM. But today on 29 August, I used a different formula the Darwin to Neku Hiva and found that the -19.85 really matches well with what we’re seeing right now as far as a sea level pressure anomaly dipole. I’m hoping meteorologists that find this post useful will hopefully help to diagnose the strength of this El Niño true its true colors. So if you all can leave a reply below this post and let me know what your thoughts are. That would be absolutely helpful because I believe this will better assess the true strength of this El Niño event and future ENSO events.

There are papers discussing changes to the teleconnections like the NAO and AO as the climate continues to warm. Bigger swings from one state to another. One of the best papers actually came out a year before the biggest swings began in the NAO and AO in 2009-2010. That is more the exception than the rule since most papers only come out after the change had already occurred.

According to most of us on this forum. But the majority of the population movement is to places like the Deep South and Desert Southwest like Phoenix. Just go on YouTube and pull up videos about how people in these areas stay in the AC as much as possible in the warm season. There is a couple on there that used to live in Minnesota that would rather deal with Phoenix summer heat than Upper Midwest winter cold. They adjust their summer routines to only go outdoors early in the mornings for more than a few minutes to avoid the heat. But to each their own. This world provides a wide array of climates to accommodate everyone’s wants and needs.

Sample sizes in a rapidly shifting climate will never be as large as they were when we were on a colder and more stable temperature regime prior to the 1980s and 1990s. Thresholds are a common part of systems like the climate which can have non-linear elements blending with more familiar linear ones. But the models aren’t advanced enough to know exactly where these are ahead of time. Most of the time a crossed threshold is a rear view mirror assessment. This is what so many climate studies come out after the fact instead of before. The post I responded to said the coldest stretch since the 1970s.

Yeah, the winters in the Northeast and across the CONUS really warmed following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature jump. Last winter was our first colder winter against the long term means since 2014-2015 in the Northeast. Almost seems like the 2015-2016 caused more of a non-linear shift than something gradual. So it will be interesting to see what things look like following this significantly stronger El Niño. Getting 3 baseline increases from 2015-2016 to 2023-2024 and now 2026-2027 is very extreme for such a short period of time. We had to wait 18 years from 1997-1998 to 2015-2016. Now we are getting our first super El Niños only 3 years apart. Matches with the findings of the recent corals studies showing stronger El Niños as the climate warms.

The cold in the East this past winter was weak sauce compared the the hard winters of the 1970s.

Within the U.S. this is true since we have widespread access to air conditioning. Most of the movement within the U.S has been from cooler locations to warmer ones. Outside this forum most people applaud the much milder winters since they require less heating demand which has become so expensive these days. They will put up with warmer summers since the extra cooling costs are less compared to what a really cold winter like we would regularly get in the past did to winter heating bills. But the movement to warmer locations within the U.S comes with risks. Water shortages are becoming an issue out West with some smaller communities losing water rights. Wildfires have become a big issue with the land becoming so dry combined with human and natural ignition sources on the rise. Another risk is that over the coming decades is that the Western droughts begin to creep out into the Plains lowering crop yields. Places like France and The UK with much smaller agricultural output have suffered significant crop losses this summer. Plus increasing exposure to extreme flood events across the U.S from rainfall and tropical systems.

Last season was the best this new much warmer climate could do as compared to the 95-96. More warmth was a factor in the NAO reversing so quickly in March as corals studies have found bigger NAO and AO swings from one state to another as the climate has warmed. Much less available cold made last winter the 2nd warmest for the CONUS.

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI. The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños. Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas.

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

Urban spots away from the seabreeze made it to 10 days reaching 95°+ again. This has become a common theme in recent years. In the old days we would get cooler summers in between. Data for January 1, 2026 through August 28, 2026 #95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 95° + Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002 22 8 2 2021 17 0 - 2005 17 9 3 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 21 - 2010 16 30 4 2020 15 0 - 1999 15 4 5 2018 14 0 6 2024 13 0 - 2016 13 0 7 2025 12 0 8 2013 11 0 9 2026 10 126 10 2019 9 0 - 2006 9 4

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date. In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that @enfenperu measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

The wetter climate leading to all these summer flash flood warmings has made it more challenging to sustain extended 90° day counts like in 1988 without clouds or rain interrupting. The most severe droughts in recent times have been focused out West. In the old days droughts were often from the Plains into the East. Plus stronger sea breezes due to summer circulation changes also interrupt the 90° day runs. But overall 90° day counts have been increasing just inland from the sea breeze fronts.

I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009. Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July. Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East.