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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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About ORH_wxman

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    SNE wx FOCUS
  • Birthday 07/14/1981

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KORH
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    KORH
  1. Yes. Kuchera actually excels when marginal air aloft is in the picture. Though it does struggle still when it's near freezing at the surface...like if a model shows 1" of qpf at 33F paste snow...it will often "punish" the accumulations a bit too aggressively. They could probably make it better if it went off maybe 950mb temps or something rather than model sfc temps which can sometimes have a warm bias in isothermal paste setups. But it still beats those 30 to 1 ratios it prints out in colder storms.
  2. It's also still like 3-4 days out...so highly doubtful the Euro solution verifies verbatim...could def see a tick colder (or warmer).
  3. Maybe but I'd bet against that...usually there's some slight cooling on an easterly flow like that on the Euro as you head into ORH county, and most models won't see it. This is starting to turn into a much more developed cyclone than the '93 system.
  4. The ptype maps are pretty pixelated too...you can use your own judgement on how it would actually play out. (like I would probably not give Scooter more snow QPF than ORH like the pixel maps show)
  5. Wow, that's pretty good N of the pike...it has snow S of pike too, though it flips over to mix/rain. N of the pike into S NH though looks pretty nice this run.
  6. Euro coming in snowier through 78 hours than the 00z run.
  7. Canadian tries to do a repeat next week. Almost like a recurring pattern going on here.
  8. Yeah you can see how the better solutions have a bit of split flow...like the northern stream isn't as obnoxious. Hopefully we can trend it a little more that way...because if we did, we'd probably not only get a nice little thump on the front, but we'd probably snow into Friday night/early Saturday with a CCB. That's getting into a best case scenario if you like snow, but you can see how it would happen with more southern stream dominance.
  9. Yeah that's fine...esp in this setup. The warmest layer seems to be close to H85 in this one. Sometimes you'll get the warmest layer more like 750-800 in stronger SWFEs, but not in this one (at least as modeled right now).
  10. Not really...Euro was morning it looked like...but it was also the ugliest of any model at 00z...ironically after being the best looking model at 12z yesterday. It was kind of disorganized at 00z with the leading area of lift. It could change again at 12z...we'll find out in a little over an hour. The Ukie looked good again at 12z.
  11. A lot will depend on when it moves in...it could move in early in the morning which would favor some road stickage.
  12. 12z GFS has some shoveling for a good chunk of SNE.
  13. Ukie looked good too with that...we want a bit of split flow there to the north to increase the CAD signal earlier in the storm cycle.
  14. Euro slightly warmer and GFS/GGEM slightly colder. Definitely still watchable. Esp pike northward.
  15. Sounds about right for a strong "near miss" storm. I think Vday 2007 was also a 3.