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About ORH_wxman

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    SNE wx FOCUS
  • Birthday 07/14/1981

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  1. If the euro seasonal thinks we're getting normal 2m temps then it actually means it probably has a frigid H5 pattern.
  2. Winthrop coop is where the measurements were taken from 2010-2018....but not anymore...it is defunct now. That's why we had the disaster "new location" last winter.
  3. Lol. Hes trying to get everyone else to call it the FV3 but nobody is falling for it.
  4. Btw Ray...sorry for the mild hijack of your thread. I haven't read your outlook yet but plan to after eating a couple bowls of chili and then sitting on the stall. They are always a good detailed read.
  5. I only listed the past few years....but its the same going back much further....that 27.4 vs 43.3 is by far the biggest discrepancy....and it's not getting fixed either. That awful 27.4 value is going to stay there unless NWS BOX wants to try and jump through 10 million hoops to change it.
  6. Last year's BOS total was unusable. There's really no other way to spin it. We're not just talking about the old weenie "But Logan isn't representative of the city!!"....I'm talking about versus normal Logan airport measurements..... last year's snow measurements were sometimes late, measured after events ended, and apparently out at the water treatment plant on deer island. The fact that Hingham on the water had 43.3" while BOS had 27" is enough evidence on how bad last year's total was. It was the first year of using the new observer and observation location.... Show me which year doesn't "look like the others": Year..............BOS.....Hingham 2014-2015....110.6....117.7 2015-2016....36.1......37.4 2016-2017....51.7......47.6 2017-2018....60.2......59.9 2018-2019....27.4......43.3
  7. Yep. Def helps. But the RH seems to be the biggest factor. Of course around here those stronger W and NW winds help cause the RH to drop so they can be related. Scenarios like you explained is where the lower winds can really help. You get rain and then no strong CAA...kind of unusual in the cold season... but the low winds and clearing skies leads to radiational cooling and you fall to like 28/28 and everything freezes with minimal evaporation. Almost like a freezing fog scenario.
  8. Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly. By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that.
  9. Yeah would've been nice to grab 2 or 3 inches for this cold shot...but man, this is still impressive. There's a little tiny marsh pond I have to drive by before I get to my sons preschool and it was completely frozen this morning. Pretty crazy for 11/13. It's not even like 11/27 or something where some ice isn't that weird but still indicative of below average temps...this is really early for this type of stuff. We don't really get a chance to warm that much before that next little nasty cold shot this weekend.
  10. GFS was garbage around d5-7 range but I feel like once we got to d3-4, GFS beat it as it was showing that uglier look with the low along the front looping up through interior SNE and the euro finally latched on once inside of 60h.
  11. It's definitely extremely marginal. It would take a lot of things to go right to get legit snow out of the d7 system.
  12. Yep. Even after the rest of the cold bias, it is still awful in CAD and marine influence.
  13. The euro was not far off from the gfs solution. So it's plausible. I would still hedge toward something less exciting at d7 but it's something to watch.
  14. Prob fake news below 900-925 though over elevated interior. Esp given the model.
  15. Got quite a bit colder this run. Looked like PNA ridge area got higher heights. -NAO look too.