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About ORH_wxman

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    SNE wx FOCUS
  • Birthday 07/14/1981

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  1. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Paltry area losses continue...now we trail only 2009 in the post-2007 years. But we're still really close to 2013/2014. The ensembles are trying to show a change in the pattern finally as we head into August....we'll see if that happens. We've had some years where an august pattern change mattered a lot....2014 was one of them. That year was destined to be the least ice melt since 2006 before a big shift to a dipole pattern for a couple weeks in August really hammered the ESS arm of ice....and it finished just under 2013 instead. Still a lowish melt year in the post-2007 context, but it could have been even less. The ice this year is thinner than 2014, so a pattern change could matter more this season. As usual though, I'd like to see this get solidly inside of 7 days before really buying a big shift. We've seen some of these shifts in recent years get muted or they are just very transient and it flips back to the negative dipole quickly.
  2. I checked a couple randoms ones that would def have SPECIs....Dec 11, 1992 and Dec 9, 2005.
  3. I don't get any SPECIs when I view the ORH data...not sure if I did something wrong or if they don't show them even though the selection at the bottom claims to.
  4. They must have just gotten rid of the METARs on the wunderground. They still have the hourly obs archived, but they are not in METAR format and they are missing weather conditions...which obviously sucks.
  5. ORH_wxman

    Hmmm, A July Hybrid Storm? - Possibly

    Stay safe from the landphoon everyone
  6. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    NSIDC area has indeed stalled the last couple days...we'll see how long that goes. But we're back to being basically a dead heat with 2013/2014.
  7. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    I'm not sure if there's any connection to the persistent low pressure up in the arctic the last month or so and the SSW late in the cold season. If the AMO actually does plunge into negative territory on a multi-year scale, then we'd probably see less warm intrusion from the Atlantic. The negative phase of AMO has previously been linked to colder arctic temperatures, but it remains to be seen how much this would actually offset the underlying warming trend. There was some literature not too far back that had shown the recent arctic warming was amplified by 30-50% since the early 1990s due to the AMO shift. But with the loss of a lot of multi-year ice and the underlying warming trend, it's hard to say just how much affect a negative AMO would have.
  8. ORH_wxman

    Climate Emergency

    This thread is done.
  9. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    No, 2009, 2013, and 2014 have fallen behind the melt pace of 2018...we're pretty close to 2017 right now actually. I am expecting though that we will stall pretty good since we've now almost melted out the Kara/Hudson and the pattern in the CAB is pretty good for the ice for the foreseeable future. We're way behind years like 2007 and 2012 or 2016 so there's basically zero chance to have something like a top 3 finish. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me at the moment, but I'll post them as soon as I have a chance. Based on where things stand right now, I'm expecting a result a little lower than a 2013/2014 but higher than last year. We'll see if that changes.
  10. Yep, this has run it's course....
  11. The cop killing that was big during my childhood was the Paxton police chief getting gunned down in Holden chasing after some robbers in the woods. It was about a mile from my grand parents place in Holden at the time and my grandfather had his shotgun and hunting rifle next to him the rest of that day until they finally tracked down the fugitives.
  12. ORH_wxman

    Climate Emergency

    Yeah it (the conspiracy angle) has actually gotten worse IMHO in the climate science amateur following. It doesn't matter what literature is posted, they don't have respect for any dissenting view...even in the confines of legit science publications.
  13. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    There's a decent amount of really low concentration ice in the Hudson and Kara right now so I expect extent loss numbers to still remain strong over the next week, but the area numbers should stall pretty good with the big reverse dipole. I'd expect then we eventually see an extent stall once Kara/Hudson melt out.
  14. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The Greenland stuff is interesting but the MB has a high error bar because they use GRACE data and there's a lot of debate on what the isostatic adjustments should be. There's some big back and forth in the literature right now about these...mostly centered on Antarctica but it does pertain to Greenland too. We know Greenland has been losing mass the past decade-plus but we just aren't quite sure on the magnitude.
  15. Should be a record month for TORs.