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About ORH_wxman

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  1. I had some older research on the NAO and different cities that I stumbled across recently while organizing my files, and I decided to see update the NYC graph for La Nina. For the NAO, I used the classical SLP Hurrell method as it has a bit of a wider range than the CPC upper air method. But the two methods almost always agree on the sign of the NAO. You can see from the graph that about 41% of the variance in snowfall during La Nina can be explained by the NAO. That's a pretty solid relationship, but it obviously still leaves a lot of wiggle room. A few things stand out though: 1. The chances of a big winter are heavily skewed toward a -NAO. In fact, zero La Ninas produced solidly above average snowfall at KNYC without help of a -NAO. 2. The cluster of snowfalls "near climo average" (basically between about 22-31 inches) has almost no relationship to the state of the NAO. 3. The truly terrible snowfall winters are heavily skewed toward a +NAO. Only 1 out of the 7 winters with less than 15" at KNYC had a negative NAO and both winters with under 10" had a positive NAO. In short, it seems you can use the state of the NAO to rule out one outcome at NYC but not the other two. For example, if we have a -NAO, we can very likely rule out a really terrible winter but we cannot rule out a near climo or above average snowfall winter. Of course, the sample size isn't enormous here, so you actually truly cannot rule anything out. The 1954-1955 outlier does show the danger of that. But the relationship is certainly strong with those very good years and very bad years.
  2. Oh yeah, it's totally greedy....but if you were here to see the model forecasts and the hype, you would have been certain that 30" was the floor...esp in a place like ORH that benefits from the easterly flow. OBviously I'd know better now having been watching this stuff an additional 15 years, but the model outputs were that impressive.
  3. The Dover area was actually pretty close to ground zero in the big Mar 2001 storm...they had close to 40 inches. I also remember being "disappointed" in ORH with "only" about 24" in that storm. I was thinking 30" minimum.
  4. Feb 5, 2001 was def the most painful event for the coast that winter...I think it's a lot worse than Dec 30, 2000 since even over the interior in 12/30/00, we got dryslotted and it was not a monster. But Feb 5 was 18-30 inches over the interior. Coast got porked. Though for some, the sting of getting basically zero in Dec 2000 might be worse. Feb 5 at least did give 5-8" around BOS at the end.
  5. Was that the Mar 22-23, 2001 storm? That was a paste bomb (though prob turned into a denser powder later on) up in Maine...I think Eustis had like 34 inches from it.
  6. I def wouldn't forecast a monster storm based on that ETA run down in the M.A....maybe for like NNJ still, but that is getting pretty ugly for the rest of the M.A.....relying on just the deformation which it wasn't uncommon for the ETA to be overdone on (the QPF bias back then was even more than now on the ETA...aka NAM). You can actually see how much central and S NJ is dryslotted too. But that run def gave a little more snow to the M.A. than I recalled in the 2011 synopsis...maybe I need to do some more mind exercises. lol.
  7. 2 more from March 2001...model images....first one is the AVN model and the 2nd one is the ETA model from a Rutgers presentation I believe (hence the focus on NJ)...you can see by the 12z run Saturday morning, the ETA was already crushing SNE...though it was still overdone for the mid-atlantic, but the trend was in full effect by this point (the ETA-X was actually more aggressive in the next panel or two).....you can see how ridiculously far south of AVN is....these are not the same model run...AVN is 12 hours earlier in the cycle, but it's still way south in classic KU position for the M.A.:
  8. It doesn't seem to be in New England in terms of snowfall...but it definitely seems it influences how the winter will behave synoptically.
  9. Yeah a +PDO is definitely a possibility...though the SST trend in the past few weeks is for things to go more negative, but it's not a strong enough trend to conclude we will have a -PDO this winter. GOA is still actually a little above average.
  10. 12/30/00 kind of sucked in ORH too...not because we changed to rain, but because we got blitzed for several hours and then a horrific dryslot that went all the way into S VT, which effectively ended the storm. It never really gave much as it collapsed back east, maybe another inch of currier and ives snow. The forecast for for widespread 10-16" or so...but most were in the 6-10 range...with a few lucky 12" lollis. I thought 10" was unlucky at first but then found out I was actually fortunate to get that much. The first 4-5 hours were pretty fun though...very heavy snow. I'm sure it was a great storm for the greens.
  11. Radarman sold his camera to ginxy a few years later.
  12. I had to drive back to ORH twice that semester from Cornell...once right before the March 2001 blizzard to see my sister's college recital (she went to Boston Conservatory of music)...experiencing the storm was fun at least (and I felt bad because there was like a crowd of 20 people around me during the reception asking about the storm...at this point the forecast was literally 30-40" for a lot of MA)...and then again in early April around the 10th...there was still about 10-12" of snow on the ground the 2nd time. It was bizarre in that it wasn't the typical "fresh snow pack on April 10th from a big storm on April 7th" type pack you would normally see that late. It was clearly layered snowpack and looked more like mid March than April 10th. It definitely would have been a horror show for golfers ready to get out and start the season.
  13. I'd be pretty surprised if we did not have a couple cold shots during the week of Halloween...they've been on guidance and ensembles for a while.
  14. I prob would have waited until next cold shot....since that one may not revert to a big torch. But it's going to be pretty dry this weekend, so manmade snow could survive ok.
  15. MEI is definitely a popular method amongst some. I typically just use the trimonthly 3.4 method though. MEI would be an interesting variation though... Current version: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Old 1971-2000 link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml