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About ORH_wxman

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    SNE wx FOCUS
  • Birthday 07/14/1981

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  1. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The ensembles are tryng to split the PV and have one half over the Kara region and the other half over Baffin Island...with the latter weakening and becoming less of an influence. We see some weak signs of blocking trying to get into Greenland from the east as you said. I'd def be in the "wait and see" camp though. We've seen this a lot in recent summers, where the ensembles try and do something, but every time, the PV just sort of reconsolidates over the CAA/Greenland corridor. I'd want to see a good dipole get within 7 or 8 days on the ensembles to start really thinking about a different pattern this summer. I'd also add that the GEFS are more enthusiastic about a dipole pattern than the EPS.
  2. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Yeah recently, it's been colder over the arctic versus the first week of the month. There looks to be a dipole still trying to set up as we head into June, but the sig is def weaker than it was a few days ago on the Euro ensembles....it shows more low pressure poking up from the CAA and also hanging back down from the Kara to try and go over the pole. It still has the general low pressure over the Kara area and the general high pressure over the Beaufort, but the high is covering less area than before. If we end up with some low pressure over the pole with a smaller high over the Beaufort, then the sensible wx impact of the pattern will be greatly diminished versus a true dipole blocking pattern. For bigger impact, I want to see that high sprawl to the east toward Greenland the low pressure over the Kara shift a little more toward the Barents....really start churning that fram export and also help the wind come more off Siberia.
  3. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    We don't have good real time meltponding data unfortunately. We'll prob have to wait until early June when Schroeder gives an update (he's the guy who authored the original paper in 2014 on melt ponding). The month stated off warm in the arctic, but the melt ponds typically don't get going until later in the month in the peripheral areas....and the past 7-14 days have not been very warm in the peripheral areas like the Kara, Laptev or the Beaufort where it's been an ice box. The Chukchi has been the exception...so that might be where to watch. The Laptev may try and get a good shot of warmth this week over the next few days.
  4. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Euro ensembles are showing a classic dipole pattern setting up in early June...low pressure over Kara/Laptev region with high pressure over the Beaufort and CAA. If that verifies, we would have a good jump start to the melt season in June for the first time in years.
  5. May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    Nice downpoour, gusty winds and good lightning/thunder here...def sub-severe, but first solid tstorm of the season.
  6. May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    Sfc winds have backed a lot of sites in the past hour....ORH to CT River. Decent helicity pooling in that area.
  7. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Yep...I'm def a bit more interested in what happens late this month and into early June...that's when the meltpond formation starts ramping up a lot. The total meltpond formation in May does have a good correlation, but a lot of that occurs in the final week to 10 days of the month. If we can sustain the warmer pattern into late May, then it will definitely help...even if we have a flip in June. 2016 saw a very warm May (warmer than 2011 and 2012) but it flipped in June back to just slightly above normal temps and it likely cost us a run at the record...but that May still helped with getting momentum into the season and we finished with a top 3 lowest min. It probably helped too that 2016 was the warmest refreeze season on record up there. It was nearly 2C warmer than 2015 (Oct-Apr area-weighted average)...and we've sustained the warmth into the next two winters, though this past winter wasn't quite as warm...it was about half a degree C cooler than 2016, but still warmer than all previous ones before 2016 and 2017.
  8. Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Got a long ways to go before anything becomes too exciting....it's going to come down to weather if you are looking for a record minimum. It's gonna take a massive warm dipole to probably get there given the distribution of ice thickness this winter. Gonna want something that looks kind of like the 2007 pattern....you can see how the thicker ice is all in the Laptev and East Siberian seas.
  9. It's possible it's right. But sometimes they go off kilter. We identified it at CON a year or two back. CON spit the bit by like 2-3F...any individual reading was "defensible" but the step change in behavior made for an obvious break point. I can't see FIT's 1 year history on the gladstone site for some reason, so I'm not sure if there's been a recent step change or not. Could just be a perfect storm of conditions as you said.
  10. Yeah I've got my eye on the FIT ASOS....might be going off kilter.
  11. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51162-spring-banter-observation-and-general-discussion-2018/?page=26
  12. You keep saying this after someone already said they care...don't be a dink about it.
  13. I agree with Bobby and Hippy...obs should really go into obs thread. Its ok to point out records or extremes in here and how it's verifying against the progged conditions, but it should mainly stay as a discussion thread.
  14. Winter 2017/2018 Wrap-Up Thread

    Nothing from the late 90s/early 2000s can beat this year's 49.5"...though there were some huge springs back then. But they still fall short. The biggest were: Mar/Apr 1997: 44.3" Mar/Apr 1996: 43.8" Mar/Apr 2001: 36.4" (all in March)
  15. It raises the near-sfc RH via evapotranspiration....it's easier to overperform temps when it is drier. So less green underbrush actually helps get warmer temps.