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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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About ORH_wxman

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    SNE wx FOCUS
  • Birthday 07/14/1981

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KORH
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    KORH

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  1. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Yeah John I think you are remembering the event you quoted with the sfc plot there on 12/16/07. The forecast was exactly that....3-6" before a flip to IP and then ZR. We had advisories out but no warning. Meanwhile, once the thing moved in, about 2 hours into it we knew the bust was coming....I wish eastern was still online to link back to that thread, but it was funny reading it. I was thinking "ok, were already at 5" and this sleet line is not making any progress and it's pounding at 2" per hour"...we knew we were going to be cracking 7-10" and that's exactly what happened. Of course, it was hard to actually predict that because we're we're washing out a marginal warm layer that was probably about 1-2 thousand feet thick. You know how that can go...it's like flipping a coin. If the omega was there, we could overcome it...esp if the omega was maxing out in the snow growth region. Getting the extra latent cooling from the attempted melting process in that thin warm layer. But you don't really know if it's going to happen until the event was underway. But it was a great system to learn from. You can see exactly what you describe on the sfc plot....the weakening circulation in the eastern lakes and the apparent "brick wall" of Arctic air over New England that is dominating the synoptic picture there and forcing the whole sfc reflection to redevelop.
  2. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    The best was when mattmfm (who lived near PVD at the time) was reporting S+ and Kevin wouldn't believe it. Finally, I remember posting the sfc map above which supported it and he was "dumbfounded". Even though BOS was on the east side of the CF, they still had almost 8 inches of snow IIRC. Just obscene lift in the DGZ which was offsetting a marginal warm layer aloft.
  3. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Yeah they were during the 12/16/07 event (front end thump that overperformed big time) and the 12/21/08 event which also over performed. Both had surface reflections that tracked over SE MA....so it is no surprise that out ahead of that, a very strong CF developed. I actually have a surface plot from 12/16/07 here:
  4. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    I remember someone had written an overview of the 2013 Arctic melt season and I can't find it now...but either way it showed how much the loss of multiyear ice had changed the Arctic. The 2013 summer was the coldest in the Arctic basin since 1996...but yet we still had a min around 5 million sq km, which was lower than any min pre-2007...despite some really warm years like 2005 or 2002.
  5. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    I think you mean Dec 2008? I'll post both....first one is Dec 2008 and the 2nd one is Dec 2007...the only issue is that the Dec 2007 one was still morning, and not at the max extent northwest:
  6. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Yeah the interactive graph uses the 5 day mean....it's updated daily, so its a daily reading, but the data is a 5 day average. The single day reading is actually 4.56 million sq km today. Like I said before, I can't remember if they use that or the 1 day reading as the min...but looking back at past mins, I think they use the 5-day reading that's on the graph. I seem to remember them explaining that the single day jumps can be a bit volatile and produce faux numbers on the margins, so they prefer to smooth it out. JAXA actually does this too but they do it over a 2 day average. We'll know soon enough. Not that there is a big difference...
  7. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Bluewave, I think you are referencing the 5 day average....the daily on NSIDC did get as low as 4.55 million sq km. I'm actually not 100% sure what NSIDC uses...I think they might actually use the 5 day average as the min if I recall correctly, so your number might be more "official".
  8. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Time to bump this as it looks like the NSIDC area minimum has been reached. The min area likely occurred 2 days ago at 3.17 million sq km. This ranks 9th lowest. My prediction above was for 3.3 million sq km +/- 200k...so this falls within that range. Taking the post-2007 average of area losses continues to be a better predictor than all previous years. The 3.17 million result was the 38th percentile of all the potential outcomes using only post-2007 area loss. This was around one half of a standard deviation, so not a strange result. The other typically less accurate prediction is extent. My NSIDC daily extent minimum prediction was 4.75 million sq km +/- 300k (and Jaxa would have been around 4.55 million sqkm). I'm not completely sure if the NSIDC extent min has occurred yet, but if it hasn't, the difference should be trivial from here on out. 2 days ago, the NSIDC extent bottomed out (for the time being at least) at 4.55 million sq km. It is still only 4.56 million sq km, so it's possible it falls back below 4.55 million sq km...though it is unlikely it will fall much below that if it does. The extent prediction was actually good this time as it falls within the margin set. In a strange nuance this year, jaxa extent is pretty close to NSIDC...usually it is close to 200k lower, but not this year. Jaxa min so far is 4.51 million sq km, so only 40k below NSIDC so far. So as a result, my jaxa prediction is really close to perfect. Again, these both could fall slightly more, but it's doubtful it would be more than trivial amounts. The current extent min on jaxa ranks 8th lowest, and the min on NSIDC ranks 6th lowest. 2017 and 2008 were both a little bit higher than 2018 on NSIDC extent.
  9. ORH_wxman

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Jaxa had a gain of 38k yesterday....so it's possible we have hit the extent minimum. If we have, then the jaxa min was 4.54 million sq km. This would rank 8th lowest above 2017, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2008, and 2007. Area loss is still crawling along (around 5k loss today)....area is currently at 3.2 million sq km. It is probably very close to the minimum but I will wait until it is reached to reconcile my predictions from the end of June data. If area loss doesn't change much more, then this would rank 9th lowest (same list as above, but area is higher than 2010 unlike extent).
  10. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    It would nicely fit the trend of mother nature sticking it to everyone just when we think we can figure it out. Lol. I remember the feeling before the 2001-2002 winter (back when seasonal forecasting was just hitting a little more mainstream in the weather community) was of epic cold/snow....it was as if everyone wanted to parlay the 2000-2001 on top of 2001-2002 except just make it even more extreme. Then of course the exact opposite happened....ha.
  11. What a crazy situation. You hope it was nothing intentional like someone hacking into the pressure regulator controls. It prob wasn't...more likely some safety mechanism failed.
  12. ORH_wxman

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    It's temping to go '94-'95 because there's such a positive consensus of a big winter up here.
  13. ORH_wxman

    Hurricane Florence

    Probably not. That's why most people should just evacuate. I'm sure there are some people who know what they are doing who could stay and ride it out. But those are few and far between.
  14. ORH_wxman

    Hurricane Florence

    Yeah there is no doubt that if you choose to stay, then you have to prepare for a long time without regular services like electricity and running water. If she hasn't prepared for that, then it is foolish to stay...especially if there are kids involved, who will have a tougher time adjusting to such conditions. I'm not sure I'd want to gamble the house would be fine anyway where she is because that area could still get some pretty big winds....like 100+ gusts could still be on the table there. Whats worse than not having electricity and water? Not having electricity and water without a roof over your head.
  15. ORH_wxman

    Hurricane Florence

    It also may depend on where on Emerald Isle they are....much of the interior part of that barrier island is actually in the 20-25 feet above sea level range with several areas over 30 feet, so it is fairly safe from surge. Obviously if they are lower down, then I would think it is very foolish to stay. As long as they don't mind and are prepared for being without power for a week-plus, then I could see staying there. I think I personally would get out, especially with kids.....but it's not as obvious as, say, Wrightsville Beach.
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