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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. I like the marginal snow sounding over the interior on the NAM for early Sunday morning. Prob at least some pingers in there with that super cold layer near 900.
  2. Nice mother's day weekend disaster on the Euro....awful. Hopefully trends back south...or at least trends north to give us good rain. But that solution is the worst. dogshit temps and mist but not a ton of precip outside of SW CT.
  3. Trends are def good. When you get defined east-based Nina, December comes in big fairly frequently (see 2017, 2007, 2005, 1995, 1970)...keeping it weak is better though for later in winter as noted by the '95 and '17 analogs....'05 didn't really follow that mold though you could say Feb '06 was a bit unlucky and we should've scored more than that one coastal.
  4. Hopefully the Euro is more correct with the cutoff staying well south...so we'd at least be far enough north to get a decent amount of sun and avoid the horrific onshore flow. GFS on the other hand basically makes it a full-on mother's day weekend massacre.
  5. Agreed. Wind was way down today which felt amazing.
  6. Snowfall in last hour/Snow depth change since last 6 hour obs/ Snow depth
  7. Look at the peak of the heavy snow....mid afternoon.....they prob wouldve gotten 20"+ if it was 6 hours later.
  8. Just had a shower come through.....dropped temp back below 50 briefly. Best spring week of the year continues. We'll see if we can pull a freeze tonight to add to the summer preview.
  9. Bump....this was actually pretty well-forecasted by model guidance.
  10. Got up to 55F earlier this morning but it has since dropped to 51F and clouded over and wind has been picking up. Awesome weather for 4/27....best spring ever continues.
  11. Early summer cancelled again on the Euro this run. In line to bend us over for mother's day weekend. Hopefully it goes back to the 00z look.
  12. Some of the LR stuff looks interesting....maybe get our first taste of summer in here.
  13. Yeah and that's not too surprising given that this month has been wet too...at least until very recently.
  14. 75F is semi-arbitrary, but it's hard to not achieve that temp when the month is above normal. IT's a decent number for April.....70F in March is a similar benchmark or 65F in February. Just speaks to how we did it in April 2022....most of the warmth this april was front-loaded where a 60-65F high on April 2nd produces a solid positive departure. We've pissed away a chunk of that AN surplus that we banked in the first half of the month...I noticed ORH is down to +1.9 on the month and BDL is down to +1.7....and those will be whittled down further in the final week here. So yeah, it's prob not going to be too far off from typical April dogshit, except we did it in surgical fashion as to avoid the 75+ weather we typically see in the low-elevation sites by month-end.
  15. We're def running a bit late on first 75F+ this season despite the AN April....avg first date of 75F+ at various ASOS stations that have NOT hit 75F yet this season: BED: 4/14 BAF: 4/10 FIT: 4/8 OWD: 4/9 ORH: 4/26 (random stat.....ORH hasn't hit 75F prior to May since 2017) BOS: 4/19 PVD: 4/22
  16. Yeah rad pits near the water are actually sometimes better for late freezes with that sandy soil...look at MVY. MVY average last freeze is 5/11 while ORH is 4/24. But if you lack radiational cooling near the water, you are going to be really early (like I think KBOS is something like 4/5 or 4/6)
  17. Your avg last freeze there that close to the water and a bit up on a hill must be no later than mid-April, no?
  18. Tell you all you need to know about our spring climo that today isn’t considered terrible. Old college stomping grounds in ITH rocking 80F today
  19. At least it’s dry today. But these 40s and wind sucks right now.
  20. Norways are the only trees here showing green....but we have so few of them in this neighborhood that is basically still looks like a nuclear crater. Our magnolia is flowering which looks nice though.
  21. Looks like a lot of moisture trapped in the 925-800 layer....not sure how much sun we get. Better chance up by you, but lots of onshore flow in SNE too...so not optimistic about a nice day here.
  22. Nice hideous cutoff later next week....at least we might stay on the southwest side of it, so it will just be merely annoying rather than disastrous like a May 2005 deal.
  23. Yeah it's about every 20 years or so it happens.
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