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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. Yeah not sure exact temps but in the shallow area near the dock it has to be at least high 70s. It’s definitely cooler in the deeper area near the channel.
  2. I think he fell asleep before his head fully hit the pillow...his normal bedtime is like 745-8. The kid is a fish though. He’s been on the beach and in the water since 830am.
  3. I think it was two years ago when we were here right after the tornado hit the northern part of the lake at the 302 causeway. You could see the tree damage driving over it.
  4. Yeah we can see pleasant mountain looking a little further left than my first shot straight up the lake...
  5. Up in Maine this week. First night was a beauty...we let our 4 year old stay up late and swim until after 8pm...got this shot a bit before 830
  6. It probably will. Or at least the warming there will slow. The N PAC has warmed faster recently than the N Hemisphere as a whole.
  7. Its going to be inland for like 1,000 miles. Unless that drastically changes, this is primarily a big rain threat. If it stays over water somehow, then that means further east landfall over the cape or something. Outside of some southern facing exposed beaches, nobody is even seeing minimal sustained TS winds up in NY and New England.
  8. I didn’t totally write it off. But as of now, it’s at the bottom of the list. There arent many scenarios where this is even a strong TS at landfall. The scenarios where the location is central/western CT have the storm tracking over the interior of the I-95 corridor so you don’t have any wind core left. Stronger scenarios are more plausible out east toward the cape if this stays more offshore.
  9. Meh...dime a dozen in the other 3 seasons. I guess southerly 50mph on the coast in summer could cause a bit of damage. But the rain threat is 99% of this... You haven’t been through many New England TCs, have you?
  10. Biggest threat is a PRE on this. The wind threat is lol up here.
  11. Haven’t been in since 3/11...have no idea when we’ll be back in office as no date has been floated. My guess is not until next year sometime. I worked remotely 3-4 days per week anyway before coronavirus so it wasn’t a drastic change. I do find no being in office for meetings every week has slowed our efficiency a little bit though...like operating at 80% or so compared to before the lockdown began.
  12. There was an interesting read a few years ago on how the great whites started increasing off the Cape once the seal populations were rebounding....a delayed response to the protection of them in the 1970s. Apparently Great Whites were pretty common in the early days of settlement because seals were very prevalent. Then we started hunting the seals not long after we arrived and they steadily decreased....their demise accelerated in the late 19th and 20th century as fisherman started killing them off because they were competing for the same fish. The seals were nearly extinct on Cape Cod by 1970 and so were the great whites.....hard to believe now there are about 40,000-50,000 seals on the Cape now. Actually a pretty amazing conservation story....but it has meant an increase in the sharks. Maine has similarly seen seal populations rise from their lows back in the 20th century. Sharks are going to go where the food is.
  13. That list I gave in vertical fashion was the good weak Ninas....not the ratters. Only ratter weak Niña is probably 1954-55...you could almost classify 2011-12 as one, but that was really a moderate Niña and it peaked pretty early. Of course everything else you said could be true as well. Maybe the warmer PAC outside of enso regions was reducing the effect. We did have a weak El Niño basically act like a La Niña a couple winters ago...but that has also been true in the past on a few events. Maybe it’s becoming more common now. We’ll need a higher sample to be sure. You've talked about the expanded Hadley cell...is it the dominant driver? Not sure. It definitely is a force that increases the gradient. But......Arctic warming faster than the rest of the globe reduces the gradient...that reduced gradient will want to offset an increased gradient from Hadley expansion. By how much? I don’t know. Will the PAC go back into a relative cold cycle again like we saw in the 2007-2013 years? That’s another question. I don’t think the N ATL going frigid on us since 2013 has done us any favors in terms of NAO blocking. You’d figure at some point the blocking will return...but outside of fleeting moments (March 2018...late Nov/early Dec 2019), we haven’t seen it during the winter months...not even during the “Labrador visits Boston” winter of 2015. I’m mostly thinking out loud in this post...we all know how difficult it is to predict winter here because New England has such a weird geography and no real Golden Nugget teleconnector. EPO would probably be our closest one to being that but even here we’re far enough east to not be in the direct line of fire like, say, the Great Lakes and upper plains are.
  14. Wonder if we can suck up the hurricane making landfall in NOLA and run into the cold air affecting SE for an early September blizzard.
  15. Yeah once in a while we get one. I think 1998 had a big event. But usually the month is really boring. Nah, we probably get a legit April snow event every 2-3 years on average...and we can get synoptic wind events still (like we had this year that caused some damage). TCs in September are a much lower frequency than April snows and wind events. April for sure has the most miserable weather though...I’ll vote for that. Lol.
  16. There’s been some subpar ones here but definitely minority. The monster ratter was 1954-55...least snowiest winter on record at ORH. 2005-06 and 1974-75 were OK but not great...1964-65 maybe slightly better. But a lot of goodies are on the list: 2017-18 2016-17 2008-09 2000-01 1995-96 1983-84 1971-72
  17. Sept might be the most boring weather month we have in New England...almost nothing exciting happens outside of the rare rogue TC. But it probably has some of the nicest weather of the year.
  18. Most guidance still going for a weak La Nina....I was speculating on moderate about a month ago, but it seems we lost the easterlies and WWBs put a halt on it. But very recently, the easterlies have picked back up, so we'll see if there another late push to get things going. Weak La Nina can be very good though....some of our big ones in the past 30 years in weak La Nina have been 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018
  19. The reduction in extent losses was inevitable with how compact the ice had become (I made a post 5 days ago on this). However, we have had some good area losses recently, so there will be room for extent losses to pick back up if we can get another favorable pattern....for now, the reverse dipole looks to intensify over the next week, and then we'll see what happens after that.
  20. For a long time, the summers in the late 1940s and early 1950s really stood out, but they are now getting surpassed by some of these recent summers. I was randomly looking at “summer to date” temps a couple days ago for ORH and saw that the coldest summer on record “to date” was 2009....feels like eons ago, lol. 1949 i believe is still the hottest summer on record statewide in MA but this summer may challenge it if we have a torch August.
  21. LL lapse rates are kind of meh during this....hence the "underperformance"....we'd expect higher terrain to perform slightly better in the weak lapse rate environment.