ORH_wxman

Yeah both GGEM and Ukie were the flattest in that one. Ukie may have been a touch flatter but both were ugly.

Canadian bombs the primary over southern Lake Michigan. SNE will have a shot if that happens.

I honestly didn’t read that far back. Was busy with work. But it’s been a theme I’ve noticed since last night’s runs. We already knew a primary into Huron was bad for snow south of NNE but we were kind of hoping it would be over CLE instead previously…but that isn’t happening…however, an alternative version of getting more snow in SNE (or at least down into the SNE/CNE gray area) is to have the primary nuke out much further west over Lake Michigan.

Still pretty much a non-event for SNE in the mean though. Too many eastern Michigan/Lake Huron primaries which causes the secondary to rip up through interior SNE.

The colder solutions recently have had the primary maxing out over Lake Michigan or far western Michigan instead of the thumb of Michigan or Lake Huron. That is enough to make a difference and allow the coastal to consolidate a bit better without primary interference. Note that the 12z NAM was a “thumb of Michigan/Lake Huron” solution unlike the RGEM/GFS

Hopefully the progged convection performs about as well as the 2/13 event.

It’s collapsing heights to the east just a bit more…and I think it’s due to the main ULL out west dropping further south initially so it gives a little more time for that PV lobe in Nova Scotia to nudge southwest and try to crash heights just enough as the main ULL out west approaches. If that trend kept up, then it would get interesting for at least northern SNE. But it’s definitely a good development for CNE since it might try to link the WCB and CCB a bit and not allow that WAA to just rip to the northeast and keep everything more disjointed and warmer.

ICON was kind of Krafty for E and C MA and SE NH too Thursday AM. Not really biting on that yet but it wasn’t showing that previously until overnight. If you’re hoping for a longshot attempt here, the key is to get that little PV lobe over Nova Scotia to phase into the main ULL early enough to drop heights over New England and crash everything SE a bit before the western ULL wraps up the ML and LL circulation into the interior.

06z GFS was a little colder. Actually produces a sleet bomb over interior MA. I’m still expecting mostly rain here but there’s maybe like a 1 in 5 shot it could be a bit more interesting. I’d want to see the 12z runs tick cooler again. 00z was pretty furnaced outside of the Canadian.

N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron.

Need to keep the primary weaker and south. But that is the opposite of the current trend. Even for NNE I think keep the upper air a little toned down is what you want…not as much as SNE needs it but there’s a happy medium. But some of these GFS runs are just wrapping this thing up so much that there’s really no chance to consolidate the WAA/CCB together. Hopefully things trend back a little but I’m not optimistic about that.

Looks even more like S Canada run. Ottawa to Massena. Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included.

I’d hold off up there. Latitude will matter. But yeah, you want a tick south. N of pike crowd between pike and ASH/MHT can still get a big system if this nudges south a little but the trends haven’t been favorable the last 24 hours.

It actually trended so far south it looked like all of us were gonna get skunked and then at the last second it bumped back enough to crush CT. We still got screwed up here. We got maybe 4”.

Yes. The northward push of the primary is where the issues occur. A system sliding due east from Chicago to Cleveland and redeveloping E of ACY is totally fine. But when the primary rips up into Lake Huron, it’s hard to hold the midlevel structure of the storm in a manner that produces huge snows for SNE.

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent.

Yep. Prob gonna check out on this one soon. I’ll give it another couple cycles though since there is still some spread south/colder. But this is starting to get the feeling of an NNE elevation storm and not the more cleanly phased tempest over the benchmark up to ACK. Gonna need a shift south on subsequent cycles.

NAM is actually sub-freezing over high terrain of SNE and 925s are between -3 and -4 so you’d get good accumulations that way. But you want to see more global models trend that cold before you consider it realistically.

CCB prob wouldn’t get cranking for another few frames as the ULL is still back west. It’s quite cold though so NAM would prob work in a lot of spots even if 10 to 1 is overdone.

I think ideally for non-ORH hills/Berks interior SNE (and I’ll loosely define this as 495 belt from Ray right down to near Kevin on 84 NE of HFD) we want to see that primary die a little quicker instead of getting wrapped up into the thumb of Michigan. If you can can keep it more toward CLE instead then it’s balls to wall.

Yeah there will be a lot of white rain lingering as the ULL takes its time to move out but I don’t expect much of that stuff to stick. Maybe briefly in heavier snow showers. The key for siggy accums is getting into the meat of the CCB on the coastal.

You’re still in a good spot. Maybe even down to ORH but it would feel A little better even in that area to see things tick a little south.

It was fun for a couple days. But we’re prob cooked unless we sink this back south 50-100mi

Yeah it’s not surprising that is also where some laughable storm totals have occurred when the stars line up. Like 60”+ type totals every once in a while in that high terrain east side near Pinkham Notch.