ORH_wxman

Avoiding the glue factory

Yeah NAM isn’t biting on the north trend of the hrrr and rap.

It’s almost impossible to get a full-on blown whiff on a MECS like we would occasionally get back then, but yeah, this season hasnt been a banner year for model guidance. Btw I forgot to respond to your question about snowfall to date vs climo here back in the February thread…I’m at about 43” I think to date and average to date would prob be around 38-40”. We do still have some beefy snow climo to get through the next 3-4 weeks before it tapers quickly. Snowfall is AN but not drastically so…but snow depth days are way AN since we haven’t melted much since mid January…and even December and early January had a lot of snow cover days even though it was frequently 1-3” crusty inches. I think the next 7-10 days will decide whether this season wants to go well AN into the upper 20-25% of seasons or remain relatively close to the median year and be more remembered for the prolonged cold and snow cover rather than actual storms and totals.

It’s been a tough few weeks on short range stuff. Bringing us back to the first half of 2010s and late 2000s with these shorter range hiccups. I remember way back during the Feb 2006 storm, the 06z ETA completely whiffed us 18 hours before the event started and we all just kind of shrugged and tossed it like it was normal before we even saw other 06z runs. That was life back then.

I like this call right now. Chance at a bit higher upside but I wouldn’t honk that yet. If it trends better, can always adjust since it’s 3+ days out.

Hrrr is coming back north. Wonder if today was a bit of an over trend?

Doesn’t bode well for spring probably. We typically don’t stein for too long around here so you know the cutoffs and 38F rain are just waiting to torture us for weeks once we hit April.

Euro could be right but I’m still hedging toward more amplified for reasons I posted earlier in this thread. It also has not been good at all this season when on an island. I do think it’s telling though that the “glue factory” posts about the euro are not very plentiful at the moment. Tells me most people don’t believe that rhetoric. Kevin and Accordions not withstanding.

Nasty day today here….mid 30s and overcast. A few weenie flakes too, esp during morning.

Is there a particular reason this just won’t trend south into almost nothing? It’s been a hard trend very close in.

A lot of guidance has longitude component to the ptype over SNE. Scooter could be ripping while ALB is pelting or ZR.

It was awful in the medium range on 1/18-19 too. Skynet crushed it.

I think you need to look at a D5-6 system in the aggregate right now. Euro has consistently been the least amplified but it has overall come northwest over the last few cycles. The 06z run was more amped than this one but most of the previous runs were not. Other guidance continues to trend toward a pretty signficiant system. Also, both AI models have been bullish on this which has generally been a positive signal this winter. You have a solid Hudson Bay block but it’s not exceptionally strong. You also have a potent shortwave that is already fairly amplified out west of us and the block is the one thing stopping it from being too amped. Taking all of these factors together, I think this is in a pretty good spot right now. There’s no guarantees. For a D6 system, it has more support than we typically see.

Yeah I’m leaning low end advisory for the best stripe. Maybe someone lucks into 4-6” totals but I’d think those would be isolated if they happen at all.

Theme today has been further south and less QPF.

He’s obviously not serious.

I’m not overly worried about suppression. Can’t completely rule it out, but this is pretty amped as it crosses the Midwest. I’d rather see this a touch south right now like a lot of guidance has it.

Euro likes the pike region 15 miles either side.

Both gfs and Canadian have been hitting that system.

This is one is gaining legs very quickly across all guidance.

Tblizz grabbing a 20 burger after declaring winter over last week.

Not on the GFS solution it isn’t.

GFS skynet is now a little north of the OP on this one. It had previously been decently south of OP but now they are flipped.

It’s like a 30 mile wide band of moderate snow. Very easy forecast to miss on this one.

3k was run out of our basements. Narrow high end advisory type stuff right near and just south of pike in eastern areas.