The 4 Seasons

Wow..i thought Christmas just passed? This is great news as the UKMET, even on paid sites didn't have this much data let alone the soundings. Pivotal is quickly becoming the premier site for free model data, and it even suprassing a lot of the paid sites. Pivotal keeps this up it might be the death of places like Weatherbell and WXmodels. Obviously not at that point but they may need to find another way for income. One thing i wish it had was the MSLP with the 3/6hr qpf overlay, but hey beggers can't be choosers, im thrilled with what we got now. The best thing is we now have 6 hr intervals past 72hrs to 144 instead of UQUAMS 12hr, plus we get to see precip from 72-144. Wxbell is awful, all the data didn't even load for 12Z, there is like 3 different types of charts with 24hr intervals, what a waste...its like looking at the old free ECMWF progs

This turned into a Climate Change thread real quick

This really shouldn't even have to be said but you're looking at an OP run 7+ days out. They have all wavered signficantly, it's what happens at that range.

Have an A-1 day!

You know I see a lot of possible outcomes to this senario and not a single one of them invloves Miller Time

C-W CT i think would rather take our chances with an A. Bs seems to sting.

Jan 16 i believe would be an A, it didn't make it far north. I forget the evolution exactly of how that formed Edit: Jan 18 def an A "snow bomb"

Yes. much better than 00Z, its coming right up the coast. Should be a big hit. We're still talking 180-204hrs. Ill be interested to see the EPS.

Dodging 9mm caliber weenie rounds like the matrix in there.

That was just measuring forecast error from the NWS/NDFD to final numbers. Using a snowfall metric. If you want to talk SLP or upper level error im sure the numbers would be quite different. But yeah the snowfall FX is atrocious. 12" min Error was about 130/135mi E of where it ended up. And i do remember the models and the NWS went all in on EC/NAM. I wouldn't say they went all in on an outlier, i always thought of it as two camps really. ECMWF/NAM vs. GFS/CMC(all models). Either way they chose to ignore them completely and put 100% stock in the former.

Salty McSalterson.

Miller A

has commenced. Where is the obs thread

Icon is great, but not only do i not really trust it, its at the end of its run as well. Ens still the way to go for the next couple days but i thought id share..

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