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About H2Otown_WX

  • Birthday 08/29/1991

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Waterbury, CT
  • Interests
    Weather, music, baseball, basketball, hiking, and biking.

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  1. Kodiak won. This sucks. I just don't understand why people voted for that place. That's an absolute forecasting nightmare with the lack of data, lack of sun, and huge time difference. And if the objective of having flex cities is to avoid stations with stagnant weather, then they failed with this place because they don't seem to get much precipitation.
  2. 84/55/19/0 When I made my forecast I figured they were going to get up to 82 or 83 today and with as lightly warmer air mass tomorrow, barring clouds ahead of the front, I was thinking they'd be a tad warmer. However, the Cu deck seemed to ruin their heating today so I'm doubting they'll reach this high. This place has been just one frustration after the other. Went around MOS for the low, if the front can get there a little earlier I could see how it tanks to 51 or so. USL's low made no sense yet again unless the front is delayed three hours which I doubt. BUFKIT showed a well mixed profile as the front goes through so I think they have a shot at 20 kts or so. I felt the USL was a little aggressive given how winds seem to under perform here so hedged slightly under.
  3. 83/45/16 Decided to go all in tomorrow on the low. They made it to 46 last night and with clear skies and calm winds again I don't see why they won't tank below guidance again. I am concerned dews may not sneak down enough but I think the upper 40s is likely and decided to gamble on a bit lower than that since I'm not doing very well anyway. Went slightly above USL for the high with 850s of around 14C it seems low 80s should easily be attained. They made it to 75 today with 850s of about 10C. Winds looked to pick up quite a bit toward 06z so decided to gamble on them mixing some of it down as the LLJ cranks.
  4. 76/52/8 Looked like they would mix up to about 820 mb tomorrow which yielded 75. Decided to tack a degree onto that given their tendency to be warmer than I expect. I probably would even have gone a little higher if it weren't for the clouds that look like they may stick around for a while in the morning and early afternoon. I was really thinking the low would be at 06z tomorrow night with clearing skies and dropping dews but it looks like they are clear with calm winds now so unless that changes they will probably get into the 40s easily. I didn't see much of an opportunity for them to mix down winds, looked like a pretty tame profile but I guess we'll see.
  5. Well, that was a fail I didn't see coming.
  6. 68/57/17/0.82
  7. Thanks. I guess I knew it was from wunderground. The interface on their site (pdfamily) is a little more appealing to me for some reason.
  8. Anybody know if this link is down for good? http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm It would suck if it is because it was a great site to get an overview of the meso/microscale nuances of temperatures in SNE.
  9. 73/40/15/0 Went all in on the high tomorrow after getting burned today and Tuesday. My reasoning is that on Tuesday they had 860 mb temps of about 11C and reached 76F. Tomorrow's should be around 9 to 9.5C. Of course, the clouds may spoil the party but I decided it was worth the risk. Not too enthused though with the GFS MOS showing only 66F. The low was also tough, I could see it being anywhere from 35 to 42. I hedged on the warmer side in hopes that some of the wind above the inversion could somehow get to the surface. I went pretty high on the winds since they had a window of mixing as the shortwave approaches in the late afternoon. Precip. looked like it would dodge the area and break up as it got there so went with nothing measurable.
  10. Good gamble imo. Looking more closely, 00z NAM BUFKIT shows that if they mix about 1200 feet higher, they will get to 66. They've already shown a propensity be above guidance and there are definitely reasons to go above guidance tomorrow.
  11. 63/34/9 I had to mix higher than what BUFKIT showed to get to that number. I could see maybe 64 tops but I'm surprised NWS upped it to 66. That would really be a colossal failure by the models resolving the mixing layer height. Went basically with guidance on the low, hoping they sort of level off at some point as they near the dew point. Didn't see much potential for wind so went on the low side though I think I probably went a knot or two too low.
  12. ern areas.
  13. 60/41/19/0 I guess I'm going for a 06z high though I could see how they touch 60F tomorrow afternoon if they made it to 76F today. I can't imagine CAA will be particularly strong behind the front with mid February sun in southern MS. Precip. seems to have dampened and it looked like everything would be about done by 06z on the NAM and GFS so ignored USL. The low will be the most interesting part of tomorrow's forecast. The question is can they decouple? I think they will but I went a little above the USL to cover my ass if they don't. It seems they will have a little bit of a pressure gradient before midnight. Went around the USL and BUFKIT showing low 20s fairly close to the ground tomorrow morning. Figure they will probably mix it down then or when the front goes through.
  14. 70/46/18/0.06 I could see how the high is considerably higher but banking on some clouds keeping it down. It's already down to 49F with no clouds for the next several hours and a dew point of 37F I think they could conceivably get lower than the 46F I forecast. Pretty nervous about the precip. as I see the NAM has come in more aggressive on recent runs. It had been missing to the north when I made the forecast around noon.
  15. Finally cracked 30" for the season at 31.2"!