Brian5671

Even with a -NAO we're plus 4....LOL

Still clear down this way but winds have been picking up all day

gloomy? It's clear out.

and a La Nina-could be very active.

Seems like there is less cold this year though-I'm wondering if I've had my last freeze already. SST's in the western ATL are well above normal so even with the onshore flow it likely won't be as bad as last year which had a cold pool off the NE coast....

winds have been increasing here all morning-can also see the cloud deck off to the east slowing moving westward

I've learned that if it doesn't come by late January it's generally not coming....you have a couple lucky outliers but for the most part we're toast if the pattern change doesn't arrive by then

some including him using analogs from colder times, oceans were colder etc. What worked in the winter of 60-61 is not applicable for today's baseline....

yep, it was time to mail it in when that happened. Models never showed anything but warmth and rain from that point on....

Would be nice if they would shorten the season going forward but it won't happen. 162 games is crazy

DCA +4 NYC +3.5 BOS +2.5 ORD +3 ATL+ 5 IAH +4 DEN+1 PHX+1 SEA +1.5

Given that we saw 70's in January, Jan/Feb/Mar were +5 or better-nothing would shock me. Just no cold air anywhere here since December.

That may come shortly-once this NAO block breaks down there's alot of heat from TX to GA/FL just waiting to come northeast

Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic Oceans are warmer than average. Hard to fight that off too

trending less negative...now averaging 1 to 1.5 SD below normal which is not a strong -NAO