jm1220

Quite hot down here in Long Beach today. Looks like we’re above 90, stations here are between 90-92 currently.

Yeah, scary indeed. This will keep the river very high for probably weeks longer and opens the door for a similar system to come along later this summer and cause havoc. I remember the New Orleans "flood bowl" maps I saw have the Miss. River the highest above sea level, above even the French Quarter and would cause maybe the worst problems if those levees ever failed. Lake Pont. was still low enough that the waters didn't reach the highest parts of town (but obviously still a worst case scenario in Katrina). Hopefully this is a bullet they dodge.

OK. So I guess hopefully the west drift continues and New Orleans is spared the ridiculous convection over the east/south of the storm. But you never know where those feeder bands will set up and it'll just be horrendous for someone else. I wonder how much rain the pumps can keep up with? The 5-6" of rain in 2 hours they had yesterday was rough, but that would be rough anywhere.

Just out of curiosity, wouldn't it actually be worse for New Orleans if 15-20" of rain falls west of them near Baton Rouge or upriver vs. over the city? Wouldn't all that water collect and travel down the Miss. River into the city? Are there mechanisms in place to have the water diverted somehow? Looks horrendous for Baton Rouge either way, the river looks like it's been in serious flood stage there for weeks now.

Here there was 0.4-0.5”. The convective activity still fires up inland in most cases and by the time it gets here and pushed east the sun sets and the instability wanes. Also often in the summer storms fire on the sea breeze fronts which are slightly inland, and die off when the daytime instability decreases. It’s very typical for places near the shore to go into a mini drought in the summer here.

Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode.

Very little here so far, enough to barely wet the ground. Hopefully a period of at least moderate rain coming in-we need it. Unfortunately models seem to have the split-screw where NJ gets dumped on as it has been, then another round goes E or SE of us. Hopefully that's wrong.

I drive through Hauppauge and Commack today and the tree damage looked pretty severe. You go any distance west of me and there’s almost no damage. My neighborhood seems to be where the wind damage really started. My power just came on 30 mins ago.

No power at my place since the storm and estimated to stay that way until tonight. The damage doesn’t look terrible in my neighborhood (some large branches and limbs down) but a huge branch came down in the worst possible spot and knocked out several power lines to the homes on my side of the street. The damage I’m seeing reminds of me of the Mar 2010 nor’easter that had 70-80 mph wind in Long Beach.

I’m in Long Beach now but I hear the damage on my street in Hunt Station is pretty bad. Power is also out there. Looks like they were close to the worst but that may have hit just east in Commack/Hauppauge. Anyway, definitely ends the T-storm drought up there.

Never thought Long Beach would be the place for storms, but it was nasty here and got drenched. I thought my move to the north shore would help me with severe a little, but Huntington hasn’t gotten anything so far this spring/summer and I mean anything.

Huge tower going up just north of Long Beach-massive. Whoever’s under that’s getting dumped on. Of course it’ll miss me just north. Looks like it formed on the sea breeze front.

Looks like 88-89 in Melville. Scorcher out there today.

I've mentioned this before but the increased melting from Greenland is likely reinforcing this pattern. That dumps cold water formerly locked up in glaciers into the Newfoundland area, and promotes the troughs getting stuck near there. The ridge that pops up over the trough in Greenland promotes more melting, especially this time of year when much more heat is available (and more heat in general due to global warming). It seems that this year with the west based -NAO in late spring is causing potentially a record melt season there. It won't always be the case, but it's like rolling dice with two or three times the possibility of getting snake eyes. I know it's not the climate change thread but it's not hard to see the connection to the last 2-3 months' continuous pattern.

The higher heights around Greenland are starting to relax in the long term, which should make it easier to allow ridging in the East. However, the same low heights are lingering near Newfoundland. Why this pattern couldn't happen 5 months ago...