jm1220

The essentially permanent Nina or Nina-like pattern over the past 4 winters doesn’t help. I’m sure AGW plays a role but one of the most definite slam dunks has been the cold NW/ Rockies and mild East which is what’s favored in La Niña. We can make it work in the 2-3 week winter patterns we get but the longer term cold Winter 14-15 like patterns won’t happen until this perma-Nina goes away. We may need a big El Niño to finally force a change.

If some part of the blocking can still be around when we can get the Pacific to cooperate, that’s our shot. It’ll be tough to get anything wintry as long as the continent is flooded with Pacific garbage.

Actually looks quite wintry outside this AM with lots of frost on the ground. Last night was definitely going cold with the low dews and calm wind.

I have no idea how this blocking/storm situation will shake out and hopefully everyone enjoys something out of it, but early/mid Dec is way different from early March WRT marine influence near the coast. Water temp down here is still at 50 and Boston Harbor is at 47. March can be 8-10 degrees colder. It's very difficult to get a heavy all snow event near the coast this time of year and winds are onshore. Early March is way easier since the waters are still cold from the winter. If you can get even 10-15 miles of land to cool down the onshore flow it can make all the difference. Even here on LI from the LI Sound there can be a crazy microclimate where immediately on the LI Sound beaches there is a rain/snow mix or nonaccumulating snow but 2-3 miles inland heavy accumulating snow this time of year when there's a NE or ENE wind. There are numerous early Dec storms where near the NJ shore there is little accumulation and the temps there are stuck in the upper 30s/40s but not far inland west of the coastal front, way higher accums. But if winds can stay offshore and heavy snow, different story.

29" in Huntington where I live now and the death band was 30 miles east.

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific.

Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet.

12/26/10 was an amazing event in Long Beach. All out blizzard conditions most of that night. We probably ended with around 18”. We were in heavy snow for most of it but the best banding was to the west.

The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen.

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5.

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+).

Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show.

It can’t not be Oswego’s turn eventually.

But my hometown Long Beach NY can be awesome too in the rare times when it comes together like Boxing Day 12/26/10. That was ferocious. But it's way rarer than further east on LI or in MA. Any big snow Nor'easter is on a knife's edge for NYC area.

Scituate, MA