jm1220
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My first and probably only post about this suppressed garbage event. Once again looks like too many ducks on the pond/interference and the storm can’t amplify so it stays suppressed garbage. It’s impossible to count on anything over 72 hours out this winter because of the very progressive pattern. This is a take what you can get winter with lots of frustration. Hopefully the end of this month/Feb can turn it around.
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The fast pattern also means lots of interference with vorts that interact and prevent amplification or force amplification to an extent that the storm rides inland like the last one. Too many ducks on the pond.
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Should be a decent snow event for most of us that will do enough to lay the white carpet down for much colder air. Always nice when you have some snow cover to welcome in an arctic airmass that can overperform due to snow cover, and just to have the snow to make it more wintery. Could be 3-5” where it’s all/mostly snow and it comes down moderate for a few hours.
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Those would be +AO. For negative you’d want ridging near the pole. GEFS has the -NAO but east based and not too useful for us.
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Down here in Long Beach, it should rock for a few hours in the early morning. Should be some really nice waves and nasty high tide tomorrow AM. The bay side bulkheads are mostly done but I'm sure the usual spots will flood.
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Poor Nashville, looks like they got shafted to an extent. Euro, etc were too cold and they wasted a lot of the storm as mixed rain/snow. If it was a few degrees colder they'd easily have 6+.
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The 2/13/14 storm is the 2nd most infuriating winter storm for me. 7-ish sloppy inches in Long Beach where I lived at the time, 13” north of Sunrise Highway. The meat of the storm came in, insanely heavy snow for about an hour, then the rain snow line set up just north of the bay for hours while it kept dumping over NYC and north of Sunrise Highway, maybe even Merrick Road. That really sucked. Feb 2011 was another situation where the North Shore held onto a tremendous snowpack while a few degrees here and there chopped Long Beach’s snowpack down big time. The 10-11 final snow amounts weren’t too dissimilar in the NYC metro area but there was the Feb 1-2 storm and one other that had a coastal front which spiked the south shore up but didn’t make it to the north shore. North Shore might’ve made it to 33 briefly, I hit 40 in Long Beach and with the humid air/rain, destroyed the snowpack. Long Beach is a great place for many reasons, snow is NOT one of them. Except for on 1/25/16, 30” there and I was living in Texas. My first of all time most infuriating winter storm.
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1993-94 was a good to very good winter here but I would’ve been infuriated at those warmups and how much better the winter was snow wise just north of here. I didn’t really get into weather until the 95-96 winter which will probably be the most epic of my life if I stay here in the NYC area.
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The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in.
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Thing is it’s continued trending west to where now most of upstate NY and PA are also shafted by the dry slot and mid level warmth. Essentially you have to be all the way west to I-77 in PA to have an all snow event and not worry about the dry slot. A couple of days ago it looked like it was good to I-81. Apps runners are rare but it looks like this one’ll do it.
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Good luck with this storm out there. Hopefully sleet/ice don’t cut into it too much. Lots of sleetfests when I went to PSU.
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HRRR isn’t in its optimal range yet. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it until the event’s almost here.
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Still only 17 here in Long Beach. Low was 10-11.
